Long-term safety and efficacy of percutaneous coronary intervention with stenting and coronary artery bypass surgery for multivessel coronary artery disease - A meta-analysis with 5-year patient-level data from the ARTS, ERACI-II, MASS-II, and SoS trials

Background-Randomized trials that studied clinical outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with bare metal stenting versus coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) are underpowered to properly assess safety end points like death, stroke, and myocardial infarction. Pooling data from randomized controlled trials increases the statistical power and allows better assessment of the treatment effect in high-risk subgroups. Methods and Results-We performed a pooled analysis of 3051 patients in 4 randomized trials evaluating the relative safety and efficacy of PCI with stenting and CABG at 5 years for the treatment of multivessel coronary artery disease. The primary end point was the composite end point of death, stroke, or myocardial infarction. The secondary end point was the occurrence of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular accidents, death, stroke, myocardial infarction, and repeat revascularization. We tested for heterogeneities in treatment effect in patient subgroups. At 5 years, the cumulative incidence of death, myocardial infarction, and stroke was similar in patients randomized to PCI with stenting versus CABG (16.7% versus 16.9%, respectively; hazard ratio, 1.04, 95% confidence interval, 0.86 to 1.27; P = 0.69). Repeat revascularization, however, occurred significantly more frequently after PCI than CABG (29.0% versus 7.9%, respectively; hazard ratio, 0.23; 95% confidence interval, 0.18 to 0.29; P<0.001). Major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events were significantly higher in the PCI than the CABG group (39.2% versus 23.0%, respectively; hazard ratio, 0.53; 95% confidence interval, 0.45 to 0.61; P<0.001). No heterogeneity of treatment effect was found in the subgroups, including diabetic patients and those presenting with 3-vessel disease. Conclusions-In this pooled analysis of 4 randomized trials, PCI with stenting was associated with a long-term safety profile similar to that of CABG. However, as a result of persistently lower repeat revascularization rates in the CABG patients, overall major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular event rates were significantly lower in the CABG group at 5 years.

Sex, Clinical Symptoms, and Angiographic Findings in Patients With Diabetes Mellitus and Coronary Artery Disease (from the Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation [BARI] 2 Diabetes Trial)

Previous studies have reported differences in presenting symptoms and angiographic characteristics between women and men undergoing evaluation for suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). We examined the relation between symptoms and extent of CAD in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and known CAD enrolled in the Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation 2 Diabetes (BARI 2D) trial. Of 1,775 patients (533 women, 30%, and 1,242 men, 70%), women were more likely than men to have angina (65% vs 56%, p < 0.001) or an atypical angina/anginal equivalent (71% vs 58%, p < 0.001). More women reported unstable angina (17% vs 13%, p = 0.047) or were in a higher Canadian Cardiology Society class compared to men (Canadian Cardiology Society classes II to IV 78% vs 68%, p = 0.002). Fewer women than men had no symptoms (14% vs 22%, p < 0.001). Women had a lower mean myocardial jeopardy index (42.5 +/- 24.3 vs 47.9 +/- 24.3, p < 0.001), smaller number of total significant lesions (2.3 +/- 17 1.7 vs 2.7 +/- 1.8, p < 0.001), and fewer jeopardized left ventricular regions (p < 0.001 for distribution) or long-term occlusions (29% vs 42%, p < 0.001). After adjustment for relevant covariates, the odds of having CAD symptoms were still higher in women than men (odds ratio for angina 1.31, 95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.69; odds ratio for atypical angina 1.52, 95% confidence interval 1.17 to 1.96). In conclusion, in a high-risk group of patients with known CAD and diabetes mellitus, women were more symptomatic than men but had less obstructive CAD. These data suggest that factors other than epicardial CAD severity influence symptom presentation in women in this population. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. (Am J Cardiol 2011;107:980-985)

Limb Salvage Using Bypass to the Perigeniculate Arteries

Objective: To describe bypass to perigeniculate vessels for limb salvage. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Material and methods: Between 1995 and 2009, 47 bypass procedures to perigeniculate collateral arteries were performed in 46 patients (15 women, 31 men; median age, 68 years). All patients presented with critical ischaemia (tissue loss in 87.5%, rest pain in 12.5%). Mean ankle brachial index was 0.27 +/- 0.17. The site of distal anastomosis was the descending genicular artery (DGA) in 23 bypasses (1 bilateral) and the medial sural artery (MSA) in 24. Proximal anastomosis was to the external iliac artery in 2 cases, common femoral artery in 23 cases, superficial femoral artery in 8 cases, deep femoral artery in 8 cases, above-knee poplitaeal artery in 2 cases, and previous graft in 4 cases. Results: There were four deaths during the immediate postoperative period. Mean follow-up duration was 27 months. Ten patients required major amputation. Mean ankle brachial index post-operatively was 0.60 +/- 0.21. At 3 years, primary patency was 74.7 +/- 7%, secondary patency was 83.4 +/- 8%, and the limb salvage and survival rates were 73.5 +/- 7% and 77.4 +/- 7%, respectively. Conclusion: Bypass to perigeniculate arteries is a viable treatment option for critical limb ischaemia in selected patients. (C) 2011 European Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Penetration of cefuroxime in subcutaneous tissue during coronary artery bypass grafting surgery

A sensitive and rapid HPLC assay for determining cefuroxime penetration in the subcutaneous tissue near to surgical incision of patients submitted to coronary artery bypass grafting (CABC) with or without cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) was performed. Blood and subcutaneous tissue samples were collected from 14 patients. in four periods during surgery. The analytical method presented linearity from 0.5 to 100 mu g/g. LOQ = 0.50 mu g/g, LOD = 0.25 mu g/g. intra- and interday precision (%CV) ranged from 4.9 to 8.9% and 6.4 to 9.9%, respectively, and intra-and interday accuracy expressed as % of the nominal concentration ranged from 87.1 to 104.6% and 94.8 to 103.8%, respectively (mean of three concentrations). Relative recovery was 98.4%. Tissue/plasma ratios obtained for CPB and non-CPB were, respectively: 14.6% vs 19.0% (0.6 h); 15.7% vs 15.7% (2.1 h); 22.5% vs 19.9% (3.6 h); 15.7% vs 18.8% (4.5 h). Data obtained indicate that tissue/plasma ratio remains unchanged in CPB and non-CPB patients during all period of surgery and the CPB does not affect the penetration of cefuroxime in tissues close to the surgical wound. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Early Changes in Postprandial Gallbladder Emptying in Morbidly Obese Patients Undergoing Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass: Correlation with the Occurrence of Biliary Sludge and Gallstones

Gallstones have been frequently diagnosed after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGBP). Gallbladder stasis associated with duodenal exclusion may play a role in their pathogenesis. Gallbladder emptying was studied before and on the 30th and 31st postoperative days (POD) after RYGBP in 20 morbidly obese patients. Gallbladder volume after fasting and every 15 min during a 2-h period following administration of a standard liquid meal was determined by sonography. On the 31st POD, the meal was administered through the gastrostomy in order to promote its transit through the duodenum. Fasting volume (FV), maximum ejection fraction (Max EF), and residual volume (RV) were determined. Biliary sludge and calculi were investigated after 1 and 6 months, respectively. FV was 39.4 +/- 20.2 ml, 50.1 +/- 22.7 ml, and 47.9 +/- 23.4 ml, respectively, for the preoperative and two postoperative assessments (P = 0.09). RV was 7.6 +/- 8.7 ml, 25.1 +/- 20.0 ml, and 24.6 +/- 20.9 ml; and Max EF was 80.5 +/- 20.9%, 54.3 +/- 21.4%, and 50.5 +/- 29.0%, respectively, for the pre-, postoral, and postgastrostomy infusion measurements. There was only a significant difference between the preoperative value and the two postoperative values (P < 0.001). Biliary sludge was detected in 65% of the patients and 46% of them subsequently developed gallstones. Gallbladder emptying became significantly compromised after RYGBP. This impairment was unrelated to duodenal exclusion but it was associated with biliary sludge and stone formation.

Gastric Bypass and Cardiac Autonomic Activity: Influence of Gender and Age

Obesity is associated with increased sympathetic activity and higher mortality. Treatment of this condition is often frustrating. Roux-en-Y gastric bypass is the most effective technique nowadays for treatment of obesity. The aim of the present study is to assess the effects of this surgery on the cardiac autonomic activity, including the influence of gender and age, through heart rate variability (HRV) analysis. The study group consisted of 71 obese patients undergoing gastric bypass. Time domain measures of HRV, obtained from 24-h Holter recordings, were evaluated before and 6 months after surgery, and the results were compared. Percentage of interval differences of successive normal sinus beats greater than 50 ms (pNN50) and square root of the mean squared differences of successive normal sinus beat intervals (rMSSD) was used to estimate the short-term components of HRV, related to the parasympathetic activity. Standard deviation of intervals between all normal sinus beats (SDNN) was related to overall HRV. SDNN, pNN50, and rMSSD showed significant increase 6 months after surgery (p < 0.001, p = 0.001 and p = 0.002, respectively). Men presented a greater increase of SDNN than women (p = 0.006) during the follow-up. There was a difference in rMSSD evolution for age groups (p = 0.002). Only younger patients presented significant increase of rMSSD. Overall HRV increased 6 months after surgery; this increase was more evident in men. Cardiac parasympathetic activity increased also, but in younger patients only.

The effect of internal thoracic artery grafts on long-term clinical outcomes after coronary bypass surgery

Objectives: We sought to compare long-term outcomes after coronary bypass surgery with and without an internal thoracic artery graft. Methods: We analyzed clinical outcomes over a median follow-up of 6.7 years among 3,087 patients who received coronary bypass surgery as participants in one of 8 clinical trials comparing surgical intervention with angioplasty. We used 2 statistical methods (covariate adjustment and propensity score matching) to adjust for the nonrandomized selection of internal thoracic artery grafts. Results: Internal thoracic artery grafting was associated with lower mortality, with hazard ratios of 0.77 (confidence interval, 0.62-0.97; P = .02) for covariate adjustment and 0.77 (confidence interval, 0.57-1.05; P = .10) for propensity score matching. The composite end point of death or myocardial infarction was reduced to a similar extent, with hazard ratios of 0.83 (confidence interval, 0.69-1.00; P = .05) for covariate adjustment to 0.78 (confidence interval, 0.61-1.00; P = .05) for propensity score matching. There was a trend toward less angina at 1 year, with odds ratios of 0.81 (confidence interval, 0.61-1.09; P = .16) in the covariate-adjusted model and 0.81 (confidence interval, 0.55-1.19; P = .28) in the propensity score-adjusted model. Conclusions: Use of an internal thoracic artery graft during coronary bypass surgery seems to improve long-term clinical outcomes. (J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg 2011; 142: 829-35)

Impact of number of vessels disease on outcome of patients with stable coronary artery disease: 5-year follow-up of the medical, angioplasty, and bypass surgery study (MASS)

Objective: To evaluate whether the number of vessels disease has an impact on clinical outcomes as well as on therapeutic results accordingly to medical, percutaneous, or surgery treatment in chronic coronary artery disease. Methods: We evaluated 825 individuals enrolled in MASS study, a randomized study to compare treatment options for single or multivessel coronary artery disease with preserved left ventricular function, prospectively followed during 5 years. The incidence of overall mortality and the composite end-point of death, myocardial infarction, and refractory angina were compared in three groups: single vessel disease (SVD n = 214), two-vessel disease (2VD n = 253) and three-vessel disease (3VD n = 358). The relationship between baseline variables and the composite end-point was assessed using a Cox proportional hazards survival model. Results: Most baseline characteristics were similar among groups, except age (younger in SVD and older in 3VD, p < 0.001), lower incidence of hypertension in SVD (p < 0.0001), and lower levels of total and LDL-cholesterol in 3VD (p = 0.004 and p = 0.005, respectively). There were no statistical differences in composite end-point in 5 years among groups independent of the kind of treatment; however, there was a higher mortality rate in 3VD (p < 0.001). When we stratified our analysis for each treatment option, bypass surgery was associated with a tower number of composite end-point in all groups (SVD p < 0.001, 2VD p = 0.002, 3VD p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, we found higher mortality risk in 3VD comparing to SVD (p = 0.005, HR 3.14, 95%Cl 1.4-7.0). Conclusion: Three-vessel disease was associated with worse prognosis compared to single-or two-vessel disease in patients with stable coronary disease and preserved ventricular function at 5-year follow-up. In addition, event-free survival rates were higher after bypass surgery, independent of the number of vessels diseased in these subsets of patients. (c) 2008 European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Early Increase in Myocardial Perfusion After Stem Cell Therapy in Patients Undergoing Incomplete Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery

Incomplete revascularization is associated with worse long-term outcomes. Autologous bone marrow cells (BMC) have recently been tested in patients with severe coronary artery disease. We tested the hypothesis that intramyocardial injection of autologous BMC increases myocardial perfusion in patients undergoing incomplete coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Twenty-one patients (19 men), 59 +/- 7 years old, with limiting angina and multivessel coronary artery disease (CAD), not amenable to complete CABG were enrolled. BMC were obtained prior to surgery, and the lymphomonocytic fraction separated by density gradient centrifugation. During surgery, 5 mL containing 2.1 +/- 1.3 x 10(8) BMC (CD34+ = 0.8 +/- 0.3%) were injected in the ischemic non-revascularized myocardium. Myocardial perfusion was assessed by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at baseline and 1 month after surgery. The increase in myocardial perfusion was compared between patients with < 50% (group A, n = 11) with that of patients with > 50% (group B, n = 10) of target vessels (stenosis a parts per thousand yenaEuro parts per thousand 70%) successfully bypassed. Injected myocardial segments included the inferior (n = 12), anterior (n = 7), and lateral (n = 2) walls. The number of treated vessels (2.3 +/- 0.8) was significantly smaller than the number of target vessels (4.2 +/- 1.0; P < 0.0001). One month after surgery, cardiac MRI showed a similar reduction (%) in the ischemic score of patients in group A (72.5 +/- 3.2), compared to patients in group B (78.1 +/- 3.2; P = .80). Intramyocardial injection of autologous BMC may help increase myocardial perfusion in patients undergoing incomplete CABG, even in those with fewer target vessels successfully treated. This strategy may be an adjunctive therapy for patients suffering from a more advanced (diffuse) CAD not amenable for complete direct revascularization.

Five-Year Follow-Up of a Randomized Comparison Between Off-Pump and On-Pump Stable Multivessel Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting. The MASS III Trial

Background-Coronary artery bypass graft surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass is a safe, routine procedure. Nevertheless, significant morbidity remains, mostly because of the body`s response to the nonphysiological nature of cardiopulmonary bypass. Few data are available on the effects of off-pump coronary artery bypass graft surgery (OPCAB) on cardiac events and long-term clinical outcomes. Methods and Results-In a single-center randomized trial, 308 patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery were randomly assigned: 155 to OPCAB and 153 to on-pump CAB (ONCAB). Primary composite end points were death, myocardial infarction, further revascularization (surgery or angioplasty), or stroke. After 5-year follow-up, the primary composite end point was not different between groups (hazard ratio 0.71, 95% CI 0.41 to 1.22; P=0.21). A statistical difference was found between OPCAB and ONCAB groups in the duration of surgery (240 +/- 65 versus 300 +/- 87.5 minutes; P<0.001), in the length of ICU stay (19.5 +/- 17.8 versus 43 +/- 17.0 hours; P<0.001), time to extubation (4.6 +/- 6.8 versus 9.3 +/- 5.7 hours; P<0.001), hospital stay (6 +/- 2 versus 9 +/- 2 days; P<0.001), higher incidence of atrial fibrillation (35 versus 4% of patients; P<0.001), and blood requirements (31 versus 61% of patients; P<0.001), respectively. The number of grafts per patient was higher in the ONCAB than the OPCAB group (2.97 versus 2.49 grafts/patient; P<0.001). Conclusions-No difference was found between groups in the primary composite end point at 5-years follow-up. Although OPCAB surgery was related to a lower number of grafts and higher episodes of atrial fibrillation, it had no significant implications related to long-term outcomes.

The Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation 2 Diabetes Randomized Trial of Different Treatment Strategies in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus With Stable Ischemic Heart Disease Impact of Treatment Strategy on Cardiac Mortality and Myocardial Infarction

Background-The Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation 2 Diabetes (BARI 2D) trial in 2368 patients with stable ischemic heart disease assigned before randomization to percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass grafting strata reported similar 5-year all-cause mortality rates with insulin sensitization versus insulin provision therapy and with a strategy of prompt initial coronary revascularization and intensive medical therapy or intensive medical therapy alone with revascularization reserved for clinical indication(s). In this report, we examine the predefined secondary end points of cardiac death and myocardial infarction (MI). Methods and Results-Outcome data were analyzed by intention to treat; the Kaplan-Meier method was used to assess 5-year event rates. Nominal P values are presented. During an average 5.3-year follow-up, there were 316 deaths (43% were attributed to cardiac causes) and 279 first MI events. Five-year cardiac mortality did not differ between revascularization plus intensive medical therapy (5.9%) and intensive medical therapy alone groups (5.7%; P = 0.38) or between insulin sensitization (5.7%) and insulin provision therapy (6%; P = 0.76). In the coronary artery bypass grafting stratum (n = 763), MI events were significantly less frequent in revascularization plus intensive medical therapy versus intensive medical therapy alone groups (10.0% versus 17.6%; P = 0.003), and the composite end points of all-cause death or MI (21.1% versus 29.2%; P = 0.010) and cardiac death or MI (P = 0.03) were also less frequent. Reduction in MI (P = 0.001) and cardiac death/MI (P = 0.002) was significant only in the insulin sensitization group. Conclusions-In many patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and stable ischemic coronary disease in whom angina symptoms are controlled, similar to those enrolled in the percutaneous coronary intervention stratum, intensive medical therapy alone should be the first-line strategy. In patients with more extensive coronary disease, similar to those enrolled in the coronary artery bypass grafting stratum, prompt coronary artery bypass grafting, in the absence of contraindications, intensive medical therapy, and an insulin sensitization strategy appears to be a preferred therapeutic strategy to reduce the incidence of MI. Clinical Trial Registration-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00006305. (Circulation. 2009;120:2529-2540.)

A randomized comparative study of patients undergoing myocardial revascularization with or without cardiopulmonary bypass surgery: The MASS III Trial

The MASS III Trial is a large project from a single institution, The Heart Institute of the University of Sao Paulo, Brazil (InCor), enrolling patients with coronary artery disease and preserved ventricular function. The aim of the MASS III Trial is to compare medical effectiveness, cerebral injury, quality of life, and the cost-effectiveness of coronary surgery with and without of cardiopulmonary bypass in patients with multivessel coronary disease referred for both strategies. The primary endpoint should be a composite of cardiovascular mortality, cerebrovascular accident, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and refractory angina requiring revascularization. The secondary end points in this trial include noncardiac mortality, presence and severity of angina, quality of life based on the SF-36 Questionnaire, and cost-effectiveness at discharge and at 5-year follow-up. In this scenario, we will analyze the cost of the initial procedure, hospital length of stay, resource utilization, repeat hospitalization, and repeat revascularization events during the follow-up. Exercise capacity will be assessed at 6-months, 12-months, and the end of follow-up. A neurocognitive evaluation will be assessed in a subset of subjects using the Brain Resource Center computerized neurocognitive battery. Furthermore, magnetic resonance imaging will be made to detect any cerebral injury before and after procedures in patients who undergo coronary artery surgery with and without cardiopulmonary bypass.

Laparoscopic Duodenal-Jejunal Bypass for the Treatment of Duodenal Obstruction Caused by Annular Pancreas: Description of a Surgical Technique

Annular pancreas is a rare congenital anomaly, which is only surgically treated in symptomatic cases. Surgical treatment consists of bypassing the duodenal transit by gastrojejunal or duodenal-jejunal anastomosis. In the absolute majority of published cases, laparotomy is the most widely used access technique. The aim of this article is to report a case of an annular pancreas and describe the technical steps involved in carrying out a laparoscopic duodenal-jejunal anastomosis, for correction of the duodenal obstruction. The patient`s recovery was uneventful; she was discharged on the fourth postoperative day and remained asymptomatic for the 2-year, outpatient follow-up period. Laparoscopic duodenal-jejunal bypass is shown to be feasible and safe, and produce less surgical trauma, when carried out by an experienced surgeon who is duly trained and familiar with the laparoscopic technique.

Treatment of ring slippage after gastric bypass: long-term results after endoscopic dilation with an achalasia balloon (with videos)

Background: Silastic rings are used in gastric bypass procedures for the treatment of obesity, but ring slippage may lead to gastric pouch outlet stenosis (GPOS). Conventional management has been ring removal through abdominal surgery. Objective: To describe a novel, safe, minimally invasive, endoscopic technique for the treatment of GPOS caused by ring slippage after gastric bypass. Design: Case series. Setting: Federal University of Pernambuco and sao Paulo University. Patients: This study involved 39 consecutive patients who-were screened for inclusion. Intervention: Endoscopic dilation with an achalasia balloon. Main Outcome Measurements: Technical success and safety of the procedure. Results: Among the 39 patients, 35 underwent endoscopic dilation at the ring slippage site for the relief of GPOS. The 4 patients who did not undergo endoscopic dilation underwent surgical removal of the ring, based on the exclusion criteria. The endoscopic approach was successful in 1 to 4 sessions in 100% of cases with radioscopic control (n = 12). The duration of the procedures ranged from 5 to 30 minutes, and the average internment was 14.4 hours. Dilation promoted either rupture (65.7%) or stretching (34.3%) of the thread within the ring, thereby increasing the luminal diameter of the GPOS. Complications included self-limited upper digestive tract hemorrhage (n = 1) and asymptomatic ring erosion (n = 4). There were no recurrences of obstructive symptoms during the follow-up period (mean of 33.3 months). Limitations: This was not a randomized, comparison study, and the number of patients was relatively small. Conclusion: The technique described promotes the relief of GPOS with low overall morbidity and avoids abdominal reoperation for ring removal. (Gastrointest Endosc 2010;72:44-9.)

Long-Term Nutritional Outcome After Gastric Bypass

Weight loss and nutritional status 5 or more years after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass was prospectively documented. The hypothesis was that even after clinical adaptation, imbalances might still occur. Seventy-five consecutive patients (age 49.3 +/- 10.6 years, 89.3% females) were recruited 83.4 +/- 14.3 months after the intervention. Weight loss and nutritional abnormalities were registered. Body mass index (BMI) was 56.5 +/- 10.0 preoperatively, 29.4 +/- 6. 2 by 24 months and 34.4 +/- 14.6 when last seen. Major current deficit occurred for magnesium (32.1% of the patients), hemoglobin (50.8%), iron (29.8%), ferritin (36.0%), zinc (40.5%), vitamin B(12) (61.8%), vitamin D(3) (60.5%), and beta-carotene (56.8%). Low preoperative measurements had already been unveiled for iron, transferrin, zinc, and vitamin B(12). Total drug consumption tended to decrease after operation, and present findings correlated with excess weight loss (EWL). Also presence of diabetes and BMI value were predictors of long-term EWL, along with biochemical profile by 2 years. Multivitamin supplementation and gastrointestinal complaints partially correlated with nutritional results. (1) Good initial weight loss with moderate late regain, anemia, and multiple nutrient deficits was the common pattern. (2) Massive weight loss, frequent vomiting, dumping syndrome, and women in reproductive age were risk factors for hemoglobin or vitamin deficits, whereas superobesity, diabetes, and use of multiple drugs were associated with EWL result. (3) Most laboratory tests became stable by 2 years and along with BMI correlated with late EWL. (4) Two-year nutritional investigation is especially recommended because of its long-term predictive value.