Social cleavages and electoral support in Turkey -- toward convergence?

Studies on Western democracies have shown that deep-seated social cleavages stabilize the electoral behavior and thus reduce electoral volatility. But how do social cleavages affect a party system that is undergoing democratic consolidation, such as in Turkey? In this study, investigations were carried out on long- and short-term relationships between social cleavages (religiosity, ethnicity, and sectarism) and electoral volatility in Turkey during the 1961-2002 period. Cross-sectional multiple regressions were applied to electoral and demographic data at the provincial level. The results showed that in the long-term, social cleavages on the whole have increased volatility rather than reduced it. The cleavage-volatility relationship, however, has changed over time. Repeated elections have mitigated the volatile effect of social cleavages on the voting behavior, as political parties have become more representative of the existent social cleavages.

Foreign policy in the Grand Coalition

There is a strongly rooted assumption that foreign policy is an executive domain and rarely plays a role in the electoral struggle. Germany is something of an exception and this paper looks at the way foreign policy has provided a site for electoral competition in Germany. Its principal focus is on the two Grand Coalitions with an especial emphasis on the contest between Chancellor Merkel and Foreign Minister Steinmeier to turn foreign policy profile into party advantage. It concludes that this contest was won overwhelmingly by Chancellor Merkel but that in contrast to the first Grand Coalition that foreign policy was not transformative. © 2010 Association for the Study of German Politics.

The disadvantage of winning an election

This paper analyzes the problem that an incumbent faces during the legislature when deciding how to react to popular initiatives or policy proposals coming from different sources. We argue that this potential source of electoral disadvantage that the incumbent obtains after being elected can jeopardize the reelection possibilities of the incumbent. We analyze the decision of the incumbent when facing reelection and we characterize the conditions under which the advantages that the incumbent obtains can overcome the disadvantages. Finally, we use the results of this analysis to discuss some implications of the use of mechanisms of direct democracy like referenda and popular assemblies on electoral competition.

Mafia in the ballot box

We study the impact of organized crime on electoral competition. Assuming that the mafia is able to bring votes to the supported party in exchange of money, we show that (i) the strongest party is willing to pay the highest price to secure mafia services; (ii) the volume of electoral trade with the mafia increases with political competition and with the efficiency of the mafia. Studying in detail parliamentary elections in Sicily for the period 1946- 1992, we document the significant support given by the Sicilian Mafia to the Christian Democratic party, starting at least from the 1970s. This is consistent with our theoretical predictions, as political competition became much tighter during the 1970s and the Sicilian mafia experienced an extensive centralization process towards the end of the 1960s, which increased substantially its control of the territory. We also provide evidence that in exchange for its electoral support the mafia got economic advantages for its activities in the construction industry.

The Disadvantage of winning an election

This paper analyzes the problem that an incumbent faces during the legislature when deciding how to react to popular initiatives or policy proposals coming from different sources. We argue that this potential source of electoral disadvantage that the incumbent obtains after being elected can jeopardize the reelection possibilities of the incumbent. We analyze the decision of the incumbent when facing reelection and we characterize the conditions under which the advantages that the incumbent obtains can overcome the disadvantages. Finally, we use the results of this analysis to discuss some implications of the use of mechanisms of direct democracy like referenda and popular assemblies on electoral competition.

The left-right dimension in Latin America

We present voters' self-placement and 68 political party locations on the left-right dimension in 17 Latin American countries. Innovative calculations are based on data from Latinobarometer annual surveys from 1995 to 2002. Our preliminary analysis of the results suggests that most Latin American voters are relatively highly ideological and rather consistently located on the left-right dimension, but they have very high levels of political alienation regarding the party system. Both voters' self-placement and the corresponding party locations are presently highly polarized between the center and the right, with a significant weakness of leftist or broadly appealing 'populist' positions.

Incumbency (dis)advantage when citizens can propose

This paper analyses the problem that an incumbent faces during the legislature when deciding how to react to citizen proposals such as the outcome of referenda or popular initiatives. We argue that these proposals constitute a potential source of electoral disadvantage when citizens factor in their evaluation of the incumbent his reaction to these proposals. This is because an incumbent politician may jeopardize his re-election by implementing policies close to his preferred ones but unpopular among the electorate. We characterize conditions under which this potential disadvantage becomes in fact an electoral advantage for the incumbent. We find that the choices of the incumbent during the legislature will be closest to citizens policy proposals when the intensity of electoral competition is neither too soft nor too tough. Finally, we use our results to discuss some implications of the use of mechanisms such as referenda and popular assemblies on electoral competition and on the incumbency advantage phenomenon.

Imperfectly informed voters and strategic extremism

We analyze a unidimensional model of two-candidate electoral competition where voters have im- perfect information about the candidates' policy proposals, that is, voters cannot observe the exact policy proposals of the candidates but only which candidate offers the most leftist/rightist platform. We assume that candidates are purely office motivated and that one candidate enjoys a valence advan- tage over the other. We characterize the unique Sequential Equilibrium in very-weakly undominated strategies of the game. In this equilibrium the behavior of the two candidates tends to maximum extremism, due to the voters' lack of information. But it may converge or diverge depending on the size of the advantage. For small values of the advantage candidates converge to the extreme policy most preferred by the median and for large values of the advantage candidates strategies diverge: each candidate specializes in a different extreme policy. These results are robust to the introduction of a proportion of well informed voters. In this case the degree of extremism decreases when the voters become more informed.

Cleavages in contemporary Finland : a study on party-voter ties

Cleavages have been central in understanding the relationship between political parties and voters but the credibility of cleavage approach has been increasingly debated. This is because of decreasing party loyalty, fewer ideological differences between the parties and general social structural change amongst other factors. By definition, cleavages arise when social structural groups recognize their clashing interests, which are reflected in common values and attitudes, and vote for parties that are dedicated to defend the interests of the groups concerned. This study assesses relevance of cleavage approach in the Finnish context. The research problem in this study is “what kind of a cleavage structure exists in Finland at the beginning of the 21st century? Finland represents a case that has traditionally been characterized by a strong and diverse cleavage structure, notable ideological fragmentation in the electorate and an ideologically diverse party system. Nevertheless, the picture of the party-voter ties in Finland still remains incomplete with regard to a thorough analysis of cleavages. In addition, despite the vast amount of literature on cleavages in political science, studies that thoroughly analyze national cleavage structures by assessing the relationship between social structural position, values and attitudes and party choice have been rare. The research questions are approached by deploying statistical analyses, and using Finnish National Election Studies from 2003, 2007 and 2011as data. In this study, seven different social structural cleavage bases are analyzed: native language, type of residential area, occupational class, education, denomination, gender and age cohorts. Four different value/attitudinal dimensions were identified in this study: economic right and authority, regional and socioeconomic equality, sociocultural and European Union dimensions. This study shows that despite the weak overall effect of social structural positions on values and attitudes, a few rather strong connections between them were identified. The overall impact of social structural position and values and attitudes on party choice varies significantly between parties. Cleavages still exist in Finland and the cleavage structure partly reflects the old basis in the Finnish party system. The cleavage that is based on the type of residential area and reflected in regional and socioeconomic equality dimensions concerns primarily the voters of the Centre Party and the Coalition Party. The linguistic cleavage concerns mostly the voters of the Swedish People’s Party. The classic class cleavage reflected in the regional and socioeconomic equality dimension concerns in turn first and foremost the blue-collar voters of the Left Alliance and the Social Democratic Party, the agricultural entrepreneur voters of the Centre Party and higher professional and manager voters of the Coalition Party. The conflict with the most potential as a cleavage is the one based on social status (occupational class and education) and it is reflected in sociocultural and EU dimensions. It sets the voters of the True Finns against the voters of the Green League and the Coalition Party. The study underlines the challenges the old parties have met after the volatile election in 2011, which shook the cleavage structure. It also describes the complexity involved in the Finnish conflict structure and the multidimensionality in the electoral competition between the parties.

Social Policy Reforms in Turkey : Uses of Europe

Ce mémoire analyse trois réformes majeures de politique sociale en Turquie, en deux domaines: emploi et sécurité social. En utilisant l'approche "Usage de l'Europe", ce mémoire developpe une analyse empirique et apporte une explication théorique de ces changements qui ont été introduits au cours du processus d'adhésion de la Turquie à l'Union européenne. "Les usages de l'Europe" est une approche d'européanisation qui se concentre sur le rôle des acteurs domestiques, au sein des États membres et candidats, ainsi que de leur utilisation des ressources de l'Union européenne. Les études de cas utilisées dans cette thèse démontrent l'introduction de changements au niveau de l'État-providence; ainsi, l'approche originelle est suppléée par des concepts provenant de la littérature sur la politique partisane, les institutions formelles et l'héritage des politiques. Cette recherche utilise la méthode de l'analyse de processus pour suivre la réforme des règlements du travail par la voie de reconstitution des droits individuels des travailleurs et de l'Agence d'emploi en Turquie jusqu'en 2003, ainsi que la transformation du système de sécurité sociale en 2008. Ces trois réformes représentent des changements majeurs tant sur le plan institutionnel que politique en Turquie depuis 2001. Afin de comprendre "les usages de l'Europe" dans ces réformes politiques, l'analyse empirique questionne, si, quand et comment les acteurs turcs ont utilisé les ressources, les références et les développements politiques de l'Union européenne lors de ce processus dynamique de réforme. Les réformes du système de sécurité sociale, des règlements du travail, en plus de la reconstitution de l'Agence d'emploi étaient à l'ordre du jour en Turquie depuis les années 1990. La réforme des règlements du travail ont entraîné l'introduction des accommodements flexibles au travail et une révision de la Loi du travail permettant l'établissement d'une législation de la sécurité d'emploi. La reconstitution de l'Agence d'emploi visait à remplacer la vieille institution défunte par une institution moderne afin d'introduire des politiques d'activation. La réforme de sécurité sociale comprend les pensions de retraite, le système de santé ainsi que l'administration des institutions de sécurité sociale. Les principaux résultats révèlent que la provision des ressources de l'Union européenne en Turquie a augmenté à partir de la reconnaissance de sa candidature en 1999 et ce, jusqu'au lancement des négociations pour son adhésion en 2005; ce qui fut une occasion favorable pour les acteurs domestiques impliqués dans les processus de réformes. Cependant, à l'encontre de certaines attentes originelles de l'approche de "les usages de l'Europe", les résultats de cette recherche démontrent que le temps et le sort de "les usages de l'Europe" dépendent des intérêts des acteurs domestiques, ainsi de leurs stratégies tout au long de ce processus de réforme, plutôt que des phases du processus ou la quantité des ressources fournies par l'Union européenne.

Incidencia de la evolución de los intereses estratégicos de Rusia y de Kazajstán en las dinámicas de cooperación bilateral. Periodo 1991 – 2004

El trabajo desarrolla la forma en la que evolucionaron las relaciones bilaterales entre Rusia y Kazajstán desde el periodo inmediatamente posterior a la caída de la URSS donde no existía una relación cercana, hasta el año 2001 donde se empieza a hablar de una cooperación entre los dos actores que llevó a una estrecha relación bilateral.

Análisis cruzado de las respuestas del neoinstitucionalismo liberal y del constructivismo social aplicadas al estudio de la OTAN y sus Estados miembros

Esta monografía ayuda a responder la pregunta del porque los Estados actuan a través de organizaciones internacionales a partir de los postulados del neoliberalismo institucional de Robert Keohane y del constructivismo Social de Alexander Wendt.

Political intervention in economic activity

This paper proposes a political economy explanation of bailouts to declining industries. A model of probabilistic voting is developed, in which two candidates compete for the vote of two groups of the society through tactical redistribution. We allow politicians to have core support groups they understand better, this implies politicians are more or less effective to deliver favors to some groups. This setting is suited to reproduce pork barrels or machine politics and patronage. We use this model to illustrate the case of an economy with both an efficient industry and a declining one, in which workers elect their government. We present the conditions under which the political process ends up with the lagged-behind industry being allowed to survive.

Los dilemas del desarrollo sostenible: conectando los grandes proyectos de minería de oro en Brasil y Colombia con la protección del ambiente y los derechos humanos

Esta tesis doctoral presenta los resultados de la investigación realizada por la autora sobre desarrollo sostenible, grandes proyectos de minería de oro y derechos humanos en países en desarrollo como Brasil y Colombia. En este trabajo doctoral fueron seleccionados dos grandes proyectos de minería aurífera, uno en Brasil y el otro en Colombia, ambos ejecutados por la misma empresa minera en contextos geográficos y condiciones ambientales similares. El objetivo fue realizar un estudio comparativo de las diferentes legislaciones ambientales y mineras, las instituciones, las políticas nacionales y la protección de los derechos humanos de las comunidades impactadas por los proyectos mineros en cada país. La metodología utilizada para esta investigación doctoral, en primer lugar, consistió en la revisión de fuentes primarias y secundarias, a través de la literatura disponible en español, portugués e inglés sobre los grandes ejes temáticos del estudio. En segundo lugar, se utilizó la metodología de derecho comparado para el análisis de las legislaciones de Brasil y Colombia y finalmente, se realizaron visitas de campo a cada uno de los proyectos seleccionados y se trabajó con autoridades ambientales nacionales. Algunas conclusiones de la investigación señalaron que para garantizar la efectividad del derecho ambiental, el desarrollo sostenible y los derechos humanos en grandes proyectos mineros se requiere: •Fortalecer las legislaciones y las instituciones mineras y ambientales y en particular el proceso de licenciamiento ambiental. •Fortalecer la capacidad del Ministerio Público y de los jueces involucrados que deciden casos ambientales. •Reconocer el rol fundamental de los derechos procedimentales ambientales para resolver conflictos socioambientales, esto es, el empoderamiento de las comunidades con información de calidad y mecanismos de participación y justicia ambiental efectiva para la adecuada protección de derechos colectivos. •Incorporar el enfoque de derechos humanos en la gestión ambiental.

Globalization, Agency, and Institutional Innovation: The Rise of Public-Private Partnerships in Global Governance

Public and private actors increasingly cooperate in global governance, a realm previously reserved for states and intergovernmental organizations (IOs). This trend raises fascinating theoretical questions. What explains the rise in public-private institutions and their role in international politics? Who leads such institutional innovation and why? To address the questions, this paper develops a theory of the political demand and supply of public-private institutions and specifies the conditions under which IOs and non-state actors would cooperate, and states would support this public-private cooperation. The observable implications of the theoretical argument are evaluated against the broad trends in public-private cooperation and in a statistical analysis of the significance of demand and supply-side incentives in public-private cooperation for sustainable development. The study shows that public-private institutions do not simply fill governance gaps opened by globalization, but cluster in narrower areas of cooperation, where the strategic interests of IOs, states, and transnational actors intersect.