Going beyond duopoly: Connectivity breakdowns under receiving party pays

We show that the prediction of strategic connectivity breakdowns under a receiving-party-pays system and discrimination between on and off-net prices does not hold up once more than two mobile networks are considered. Indeed, if there are at least three competing networks and enough utility is obtained from receiving calls, only equilibria with finite call prices and receiving prices exist. Private negotiations over access charges then achieve the efficient outcome. Bill & keep (zero access charges) and free outgoing and incoming calls are efficient if and only marginal costs of calls are zero.

Archaeometallurgical study of the Proto-historic collection of Moinhos de Golas (North Portugal): a forecast for technological changes?

This work presents the archaeometallurgical study of a group of metallic artefacts found in Moinhos de Golas site, Vila Real (North of Portugal), that can generically be attributed to Proto-history (1st millennium BC, Late Bronze Age and Iron Age). The collection is composed by 35 objects: weapons, ornaments and tools, and others of difficult classification, as rings, bars and one small thin bent sheet. Some of the objects can typologically be attributed to Late Bronze Age, others are of more difficult specific attribution. The archaeometallurgical study involved x-ray digital radiography, elemental analysis by micro-energy dispersive X-ray fluorescence spectrometry and scanning electron microscopy with energy dispersive spectroscopy, microstructural observations by optical microscopy and scanning electron microscopy. The radiographic images revealed structural heterogeneities frequently related with the degradation of some artefacts and the elemental analysis showed that the majority of the artefacts was produced in a binary bronze alloy (Cu-Sn) (73%), being others produced in copper (15%) and three artefacts in brass (Cu-Zn(-Sn-Pb)). Among each type of alloy there’s certain variability in the composition and in the type of inclusions. The microstructural observations revealed that the majority of the artefacts suffered cycles of thermo-mechanical processing after casting. The diversity of metals/alloys identified was a discovery of great interest, specifically due to the presence of brasses. Their presence can be interpreted as importations related to the circulation of exogenous products during the Proto-history and/or to the deposition of materials during different moments at the site, from the transition of Late Bronze Age/Early Iron Age (Orientalizing period) onwards, as during the Roman period.

Random walk forecast of urban water in Iran under uncertainty

There are two significant reasons for the uncertainties of water demand. On one hand, an evolving technological world is plagued with accelerated change in lifestyles and consumption patterns; and on the other hand, intensifying climate change. Therefore, with an uncertain future, what enables policymakers to define the state of water resources, which are affected by withdrawals and demands? Through a case study based on thirteen years of observation data in the Zayandeh Rud River basin in Isfahan province located in Iran, this paper forecasts a wide range of urban water demand possibilities in order to create a portfolio of plans which could be utilized by different water managers. A comparison and contrast of two existing methods are discussed, demonstrating the Random Walk Methodology, which will be referred to as the â On uncertainty pathâ , because it takes the uncertainties into account and can be recommended to managers. This On Uncertainty Path is composed of both dynamic forecasting method and system simulation. The outcomes show the advantage of such methods particularly for places that climate change will aggravate their water scarcity, such as Iran.

UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?

Block factor methods offer an attractive approach to forecasting with many predictors. These extract the information in these predictors into factors reflecting different blocks of variables (e.g. a price block, a housing block, a financial block, etc.). However, a forecasting model which simply includes all blocks as predictors risks being over-parameterized. Thus, it is desirable to use a methodology which allows for different parsimonious forecasting models to hold at different points in time. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging and dynamic model selection to achieve this goal. These methods automatically alter the weights attached to different forecasting models as evidence comes in about which has forecast well in the recent past. In an empirical study involving forecasting output growth and inflation using 139 UK monthly time series variables, we find that the set of predictors changes substantially over time. Furthermore, our results show that dynamic model averaging and model selection can greatly improve forecast performance relative to traditional forecasting methods.

UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?

Block factor methods offer an attractive approach to forecasting with many predictors. These extract the information in these predictors into factors reflecting different blocks of variables (e.g. a price block, a housing block, a financial block, etc.). However, a forecasting model which simply includes all blocks as predictors risks being over-parameterized. Thus, it is desirable to use a methodology which allows for different parsimonious forecasting models to hold at different points in time. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging and dynamic model selection to achieve this goal. These methods automatically alter the weights attached to different forecasting model as evidence comes in about which has forecast well in the recent past. In an empirical study involving forecasting output and inflation using 139 UK monthly time series variables, we find that the set of predictors changes substantially over time. Furthermore, our results show that dynamic model averaging and model selection can greatly improve forecast performance relative to traditional forecasting methods.

Time Horizons And Smoothing In The Bank Of England’s Reaction Function: The Contrast Between The Standard GMM And Ex Ante Forecast Approaches

The monetary policy reaction function of the Bank of England is estimated by the standard GMM approach and the ex-ante forecast method developed by Goodhart (2005), with particular attention to the horizons for inflation and output at which each approach gives the best fit. The horizons for the ex-ante approach are much closer to what is implied by the Bank’s view of the transmission mechanism, while the GMM approach produces an implausibly slow adjustment of the interest rate, and suffers from a weak instruments problem. These findings suggest a strong preference for the ex-ante approach.

Time Horizons And Smoothing In The Bank Of England’s Reaction Function: The Contrast Between The Standard GMM And Ex Ante Forecast Approaches

The monetary policy reaction function of the Bank of England is estimated by the standard GMM approach and the ex-ante forecast method developed by Goodhart (2005), with particular attention to the horizons for inflation and output at which each approach gives the best fit. The horizons for the ex-ante approach are much closer to what is implied by the Bank’s view of the transmission mechanism, while the GMM approach produces an implausibly slow adjustment of the interest rate, and suffers from a weak instruments problem. These findings suggest a strong preference for the ex-ante approach.

Currency Forecast Errors at Times of Low Interest Rates: Evidence from Survey Data on the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate

Using survey expectations data and Markov-switching models, this paper evaluates the characteristics and evolution of investors' forecast errors about the yen/dollar exchange rate. Since our model is derived from the uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) condition and our data cover a period of low interest rates, this study is also related to the forward premium puzzle and the currency carry trade strategy. We obtain the following results. First, with the same forecast horizon, exchange rate forecasts are homogeneous among different industry types, but within the same industry, exchange rate forecasts differ if the forecast time horizon is different. In particular, investors tend to undervalue the future exchange rate for long term forecast horizons; however, in the short run they tend to overvalue the future exchange rate. Second, while forecast errors are found to be partly driven by interest rate spreads, evidence against the UIRP is provided regardless of the forecasting time horizon; the forward premium puzzle becomes more significant in shorter term forecasting errors. Consistent with this finding, our coefficients on interest rate spreads provide indirect evidence of the yen carry trade over only a short term forecast horizon. Furthermore, the carry trade seems to be active when there is a clear indication that the interest rate will be low in the future.

Forecast of acute respiratory infections: expected nonepidemic mobidity in Cuba

A forecast of nonepidemic morbidity due to acute respiratory infections were carry out by using time series analysis. The data consisted of the weekly reports of medical patient consultation from ambulatory facilities from the whole country. A version of regression model was fitted to the data. Using this approach, we were able to detect the starting data of the epidemic under routine surveillance conditions for various age groups. It will be necessary to improve the data reporting system in order to introduce these procedures at the local health center level, as well as on the provincial level.

The London health inequalities forecast: Technical document

This paper describes the data and methods used in the London health inequalities forecast: A briefing on inequalities in life expectancy and deaths from cancers, heart disease and stroke in London. Links to relevant data sources and further information are also provided where possible.

The London health inequalities forecast: A briefing on inequalities in life expectancy and deaths from cancers, heart disease and stroke in London

This briefing considers the national health inequalities targets which must be met by 2010. The targets include those set for heart disease and stroke, cancers and life expectancy.

Intronic variants in the NFKB1 gene may influence hearing forecast in patients with unilateral sensorineural hearing loss in Meniere's disease.

Meniere's disease is an episodic vestibular syndrome associated with sensorineural hearing loss (SNHL) and tinnitus. Patients with MD have an elevated prevalence of several autoimmune diseases (rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, ankylosing spondylitis and psoriasis), which suggests a shared autoimmune background. Functional variants of several genes involved in the NF-κB pathway, such as REL, TNFAIP3, NFKB1 and TNIP1, have been associated with two or more immune-mediated diseases and allelic variations in the TLR10 gene may influence bilateral affectation and clinical course in MD. We have genotyped 716 cases of MD and 1628 controls by using the ImmunoChip, a high-density genotyping array containing 186 autoimmune loci, to explore the association of immune system related-loci with sporadic MD. Although no single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) reached a genome-wide significant association (p<10(-8)), we selected allelic variants in the NF-kB pathway for further analyses to evaluate the impact of these SNPs in the clinical outcome of MD in our cohort. None of the selected SNPs increased susceptibility for MD in patients with uni or bilateral SNHL. However, two potential regulatory variants in the NFKB1 gene (rs3774937 and rs4648011) were associated with a faster hearing loss progression in patients with unilateral SNHL. So, individuals with unilateral MD carrying the C allele in rs3774937 or G allele in rs4648011 had a shorter mean time to reach hearing stage 3 (>40 dB HL) (log-rank test, corrected p values were p = 0.009 for rs3774937 and p = 0.003 for rs4648011, respectively). No variants influenced hearing in bilateral MD. Our data support that the allelic variants rs3774937 and rs4648011 can modify hearing outcome in patients with MD and unilateral SNHL.

Fiscal foresight, forecast revisions and the effects of government spending in the open economy

This paper investigates the effects of government spending on the real exchange rate and the trade balance in the US using a new VAR identification procedure based on spending forecast revisions. I find that the real exchange rate appreciates and the trade balance deteriorates after a government spending shock, although the effects are quantitatively small. The findings broadly match the theoretical predictions of the standard Mundell-Fleming model and differ substantially from those existing in literature. Differences are attributable to the fact that, because of fiscal foresight, the government spending is non-fundamental for the variables typically used in open economy VARs. Here, on the contrary, the estimated shock is fundamental.

Iowa Prison Population Forecast FY 2003-2013

CJJP takes a look at the forecast of inmates population in the state of Iowa in a ten year period. Information was produced by Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning. This report was made possible partially through funding from the U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics and its program for State Statistical Analysis Centers. Points of view or opinions expressed in this report are those of the Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning (CJJP), and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the U.S. Department of Justice.

Iowa Prison Population Forecast FY 2002-2012

CJJP takes a look at the forecast of inmates population in the state of Iowa in a ten year period. Information was produced by Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning. This report was made possible partially through funding from the U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics and its program for State Statistical Analysis Centers. Points of view or opinions expressed in this report are those of the Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning (CJJP), and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the U.S. Department of Justice.