Spanish pension system: population aging and immigration policy

There is a widespread consensus in the literature that, as consequence of the demographic transition, the current Spanish pension system will become unsustainable in the next decades. In this article we evaluate the sustainability of the contributory pensions' sub-system, taking into account the demographic projections by the Spanish Statistical Office (INE). A baseline scenario is projected as well as several reforms are simulated, focusing on: (i) selective immigration policy, (ii) changes in the way of setting the pensions and (iii) increase of the legal age of retirement up to 68. The main results are the following. The current system would not incur deficits until 2018, from then deficits will begin to be accumulated. The expenditure in pensions practically would double (from 8.3 % in 2005 to 17.2 % in 2050). A selective immigration policy -towards foreign young people- would help, but does not solve the long-term sustainability of the current system. A policy that combines a pensions' growth at a pace lower than productivity growth and extends the legal age of retirement up to 68 would give solvency to the system beyond 2029

Estimated Financial Impact of Trypanosoma vivax on the Brazilian Pantanal and Bolivian Lowlands

The financial impact of the first outbreak of Trypanosoma vivax in the Brazilian Pantanal wetland is estimated. Results are extended to include outbreaks in the Bolivian lowlands providing a notion of the potential influence of the disease and an analytical basis. More than 11 million head of cattle, valued at more than US$3 billion are found in the Brazilian Pantanal and Bolivian lowlands. The total estimated cost of the 1995 outbreak of T. vivax is the sum of the present values of mortality, abortion, and productivity losses and treatment costs, or about 4% of total brood cow value on affected ranches. Had the outbreak gone untreated, the estimated losses would have exceeded 17% of total brood cow value.

Ecogenetics of Triatoma sordida and Triatoma guasayana (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) in the Bolivian Chaco

Triatoma guasayana and two putative cryptic species pertaining to T. sordida complex (named groups 1 and 2) occur in sympatry in the Bolivian Chaco. Using multilocus enzyme electrophoresis and subsequent genetic analysis, our work assesses their population distribution and dispersal capacity in domestic, peridomestic, and silvatic environments. Our collections by light trap in the silvatic environment indicated a predominance of T. guasayana and T. sordida group 2 and a lesser abundance of T. sordida group 1 (£ 10% of the total of captures). Their similar distribution in two silvatic areas 80 km apart supports the hypothesis of their homogeneous dispersal through the Bolivian Chaco. The distribution of T. guasayana and T. sordida groups 1 and 2 was similar between silvatic environment and peridomestic ecotopes where 25% of positive places was occupied by two or three species. Bromeliads were confirmed as favorable shelter for T. guasayana but were free of T. sordida. T. sordida group 1 and to a lesser extent T. guasayana would be more invasive vectors for houses than T. sordida group 2. The spatial partition in the three species sampled in two distant sites suggested a reduced dispersive capacity.

Textural classification of land cover using support vector machines: an empirical comparison with parametric, non parametric and hybrid classifiers in the Bolivian Amazon

Land cover classification is a key research field in remote sensing and land change science as thematic maps derived from remotely sensed data have become the basis for analyzing many socio-ecological issues. However, land cover classification remains a difficult task and it is especially challenging in heterogeneous tropical landscapes where nonetheless such maps are of great importance. The present study aims to establish an efficient classification approach to accurately map all broad land cover classes in a large, heterogeneous tropical area of Bolivia, as a basis for further studies (e.g., land cover-land use change). Specifically, we compare the performance of parametric (maximum likelihood), non-parametric (k-nearest neighbour and four different support vector machines - SVM), and hybrid classifiers, using both hard and soft (fuzzy) accuracy assessments. In addition, we test whether the inclusion of a textural index (homogeneity) in the classifications improves their performance. We classified Landsat imagery for two dates corresponding to dry and wet seasons and found that non-parametric, and particularly SVM classifiers, outperformed both parametric and hybrid classifiers. We also found that the use of the homogeneity index along with reflectance bands significantly increased the overall accuracy of all the classifications, but particularly of SVM algorithms. We observed that improvements in producer’s and user’s accuracies through the inclusion of the homogeneity index were different depending on land cover classes. Earlygrowth/degraded forests, pastures, grasslands and savanna were the classes most improved, especially with the SVM radial basis function and SVM sigmoid classifiers, though with both classifiers all land cover classes were mapped with producer’s and user’s accuracies of around 90%. Our approach seems very well suited to accurately map land cover in tropical regions, thus having the potential to contribute to conservation initiatives, climate change mitigation schemes such as REDD+, and rural development policies.

Selection of Trypanosoma cruzi clonal genotypes (clonet 20 and 39) isolated from Bolivian triatomines following subculture in liquid medium

Previous studies showed that two groups of Trypanosoma cruzi clonal genotypes named clonet 20 and clonet 39 were predominant in Triatoma infestans, the unique vector of Chagas disease in Bolivia. These groups of clones correspond to distinct genetic clusters. These clonets were detected in T. infestans and Rhodnius pictipes fecal samples before isolation and after culture by kDNA PCR (polymerase chain rreaction) and hybridization of the amplified products with clonet specific kDNA probes named 20 and 39 as previously reported. Forty eight T. infestans and three R. pictipes infected insects captured at random in different Bolivian departments were proceeded. As previously reported the direct identification of the two major clonets in fecal samples allowed the detection of abundant mixed infections: 41% in the original sample, however after culture, only 6% of mixed infections were detected. Among the 21 parasite stocks isolated from digestive tracts where mixed infections were initially detected (clonet 20 + 39) clonet 20 alone was detected in 81% of them. This result clearly showed that the culture step selected clonet 20 parasites over those belonging to clonet 39. The taxonomic status of the isolated stocks was also confirmed by isoenzyme typing, and correlation was observed between clustering topology and hybridization patterns with the probes 20 and 39.