BAYESIAN PHASE I DOSE FINDING IN CANCER TRIALS

This dissertation explores phase I dose-finding designs in cancer trials from three perspectives: the alternative Bayesian dose-escalation rules, a design based on a time-to-dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) model, and a design based on a discrete-time multi-state (DTMS) model. We list alternative Bayesian dose-escalation rules and perform a simulation study for the intra-rule and inter-rule comparisons based on two statistical models to identify the most appropriate rule under certain scenarios. We provide evidence that all the Bayesian rules outperform the traditional ``3+3'' design in the allocation of patients and selection of the maximum tolerated dose. The design based on a time-to-DLT model uses patients' DLT information over multiple treatment cycles in estimating the probability of DLT at the end of treatment cycle 1. Dose-escalation decisions are made whenever a cycle-1 DLT occurs, or two months after the previous check point. Compared to the design based on a logistic regression model, the new design shows more safety benefits for trials in which more late-onset toxicities are expected. As a trade-off, the new design requires more patients on average. The design based on a discrete-time multi-state (DTMS) model has three important attributes: (1) Toxicities are categorized over a distribution of severity levels, (2) Early toxicity may inform dose escalation, and (3) No suspension is required between accrual cohorts. The proposed model accounts for the difference in the importance of the toxicity severity levels and for transitions between toxicity levels. We compare the operating characteristics of the proposed design with those from a similar design based on a fully-evaluated model that directly models the maximum observed toxicity level within the patients' entire assessment window. We describe settings in which, under comparable power, the proposed design shortens the trial. The proposed design offers more benefit compared to the alternative design as patient accrual becomes slower.

Food Security and Agri-Foreign Direct Investment in Weak States: Finding the Governance Gap to Avoid ‘Land Grab’

Food security is important. A rising world population coupled with climate change creates growing pressure on global world food supplies. States alleviate this pressure domestically by attracting agri-foreign direct investment (agri-FDI). This is a high-risk strategy for weak states: the state may gain valuable foreign currency, technology and debt-free growth; but equally, investors may fail to deliver on their commitments and exploit weak domestic legal infrastructure to ‘grab’ large areas of prime agricultural land, leaving only marginal land for domestic production. A net loss to local food security and to the national economy results. This is problematic because the state must continue to guarantee its citizens’ right to food and property. Agri-FDI needs close regulation to maximise its benefit. This article maps the multilevel system of governance covering agri-FDI. We show how this system creates asymmetric rights in favour of the investor to the detriment of the host state’s food security and how these problems might be alleviated.

Does market upgrading benefit farmers? : market differentiation, contract farming, and professional cooperatives in China's pork processing industry

This study tested whether contract farming or farmers professional cooperatives (FPCs) improved the social benefit of pork production and income of breeding farmers in China. The main concern of this study is whether institutional arrangement like contract farming or FPCs actually improved the welfare of farmers as expected. To answer this question accurately, we estimated the differentiated market demand of pork products in order to quantify the benefit by transaction types. Our study finds that contract farming or FPCs improved the benefits of pork products, but farmer's income remained lower than that of traditional transaction types. This finding is new in terms of quantifying distribution of the economic values among sales outlets, agro-firms and farmers. It is more reliable because it explicitly captures impacts from both demand side and supply side by structural estimation. In practice, we need to keep it mind the bargaining power of small farmers will not improve instantly even when the contract farming or FPCs are introduced.

AIDS benefit at Madison Square Garden

General note: Title provided by Bettye Lane

AIDS benefit at Madison Square Garden with Mayor Ed Koch speaking to audience in support of AIDS medical research

General note: Title provided by Bettye Lane.

AIDS benefit at Madison Square Garden press conference with Mayor Ed Koch (left), David Diaz, and Mel Rosen

General note: Title provided by Bettye Lane

AIDS benefit at Madison Square Garden, Ring Master Denny McGuire applauds the support of AIDS research with Patti LuPone

General note: Title provided by Bettye Lane

AIDS benefit press conference at Madison Square Garden, Ted Weiss, NY City Council presents a $500 check to Mel Rosen

General note: Title provided by Bettye Lane

[the New Classification Of Breast Cancers: Finding The Luminal A].

To compare the distributions of patients with clinical-pathological subtypes of luminal B-like breast cancer according to the 2011 and 2013 St. Gallen International Breast Cancer Conference Expert Panel. We studied 142 women with breast cancer who were positive to estrogen receptor and had been treated in São Paulo state, southeast Brazil. The expression of the following receptors was assessed by immunohistochemistry: estrogen, progesterone (PR) and Ki-67. The expression of HER-2 was measured by fluorescent in situ hybridization analysis in tissue microarray. There were 29 cases of luminal A breast cancers according to the 2011 St. Gallen International Breast Cancer Conference Expert Panel that were classified as luminal B-like in the 2013 version. Among the 65 luminal B-like breast cancer cases, 29 (45%) were previous luminal A tumors, 15 cases (20%) had a Ki-67 >14% and were at least 20% PR positive and 21 cases (35%) had Ki-67 >14% and more than 20% were PR positive. The 2013 St. Gallen consensus updated the definition of intrinsic molecular subtypes and increased the number of patients classified as having luminal B-like breast cancer in our series, for whom the use of cytotoxic drugs will probably be proposed with additional treatment cost.

Fluoride Concentrations In The Water Of Maringá, Brazil, Considering The Benefit/risk Balance Of Caries And Fluorosis.

Current Brazilian law regarding water fluoridation classification is dichotomous with respect to the risks of and benefits for oral diseases, and fluoride (F) concentrations less than 0.6 or above 0.8 mg F/L are considered outside the normal limits. Thus, the law does not consider that both caries and fluorosis are dependent on the dosage and duration of fluoride exposure because they are both chronic diseases. Therefore, this study evaluated the quality of water fluoridation in Maringá, PR, Brazil, considering a new classification for the concentration of F in water the supply, based on the anticaries benefit and risk of fluorosis (CECOL/USP, 2011). Water samples (n = 325) were collected monthly over one year from 28 distribution water networks: 20 from treatment plants and 8 from artesian wells. F concentrations were determined using a specific ion electrode. The average F concentration was 0.77 mg F/L (ppm F), ranging from 0.44 to 1.22 mg F/L. Considering all of the water samples analyzed, 83.7% of them presented from 0.55 to 0.84 mg F/L, and according to the new classification used, they would provide maximum anticaries benefit with a low risk of fluorosis. This percentage was lower (75.4%) in the water samples supplied from artesian wells than from those distributed by the treatment plant (86%). In conclusion, based on the new classification of water F concentrations, the quality of water fluoridation in Maringá is adequate and is within the range of the best balance between risk and benefit.

The finding of Lutzomyia almerioi and Lutzomyia longipalpis naturally infected by Leishmania spp. in a cutaneous and canine visceral leishmaniases focus in Serra da Bodoquena, Brazil

To identify natural infections by Leishmania spp. in insect vectors of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis, we performed field studies in natural and anthropic environments in the Guaicurus Settlement (Bodoquena Range) of the Bonito municipality, Mato Grosso do Sul state, Brazil. From October 2002 to October 2003, a total of 1395 sandfly females were captured with Shannon and light traps and dissected in search of flagellates. The sample is composed of a total of 13 species, with Lutzomyia almerioi (59.9%) and Lutzomyia longipalpis (31.4%) predominant. Infections by flagellates were directly observed in three of the dissected of Lu. almerioi females (0.36%). To increase the sensitivity of detection, DNA extracted from pools of the 1220 dissected females (Lu. almerioi 808, Lu. longipalpis 399 and Nyssomyia whitmani 13) was subjected to small subunit rRNA-based polymerase chain reactions (SSU-PCR). DNA from Leishmania (L.) infantum chagasi was detected in at least 0.37% of Lu. almerioi females and in 0.25% of Lu. longipalpis females. The DNA of the Leishmania (Viannia) sp. was detected in 0.12% of Lu. almerioi and in 0.70% of Lu. longipalpis. Leishmania (L.) amazonensis was found in 1.25% of Lu. longipalpis. Mixed infections of L. (Leishmania) sp. and L. (Viannia) sp. were found in 0.50% of Lu. longipalpis. When considering that each positive pool contained at least a single infected specimen, we found a 1.23% rate of Leishmania spp. infection among the total population of dissected female sand flies as determined by PCR. This is the first report of natural infection by L. (L.) infantum chagasi and L. (Viannia) sp. in Lu. almerioi. It is also the first report of infection by L. (Viannia) sp. in Lu. longipalpis. The observation that Lu. longipalpis and Lu. almerioi are naturally infected by agents of both cutaneous and visceral leishmaniases suggests that these two species play a role in the transmission (continua) (continuação) of these diseases within the study area. Furthermore, the finding that Lu. longipalpis has been naturally infected by L. (L.) amazonensis and L. (Viannia) sp., and Lu. almerioi by L. (L.) infantum chagasi and L. (Viannia), suggests their participation as permissive vectors

Low and moderate, rather than high intensity strength exercise induces benefit regarding plasma lipid profile

Background: The effects of chronic aerobic exercise upon lipid profile has been previously demonstrated, but few studies showed this effect under resistance exercise conditions. Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the effects of different resistance exercise loads on blood lipids. Methods: Thirty healthy, untrained male volunteers were allocated randomly into four groups based at different percentages of one repetition maximum (1 RM); 50%-1 RM, 75%-1 RM, 90%-1 RM, and 110%-1 RM. The total volume (sets x reps x load) of the exercise was equalized. The lipid profile (Triglycerides [TG], HDL-cholesterol [HDL-c], LDL-cholesterol, and Total cholesterol) was determined at rest and after 1, 24, 48 and 72 h of resistance exercise. Results: The 75%-1 RM group demonstrated greater TG reduction when compared to other groups (p < 0.05). Additionally, the 110%-1 RM group presented an increased TG concentration when compared to 50% and 75% groups (p = 0.01, p = 0.01, respectively). HDL-c concentration was significantly greater after resistance exercise in 50%-1 RM and 75%-1 RM when compared to 110%-1 RM group (p = 0.004 and p = 0.03, respectively). Accordingly, the 50%-1 RM group had greater HDL-c concentration than 110%-1 RM group after 48 h (p = 0.05) and 72 h (p = 0.004), respectively. Finally, The 50% group has showed lesser LDL-c concentration than 110% group after 24 h (p = 0.007). No significant difference was found in Total Cholesterol concentrations. Conclusion: These results indicate that the acute resistance exercise may induce changes in lipid profile in a specific-intensity manner. Overall, low and moderate exercise intensities appear to be promoting more benefits on lipid profile than high intensity. Long term studies should confirm these findings.

Risk optimization of a steel frame communications tower subject to tornado winds

The structural engineering community in Brazil faces new challenges with the recent occurrence of high intensity tornados. Satellite surveillance data shows that the area covering the south-east of Brazil, Uruguay and some of Argentina is one of the world most tornado-prone areas, second only to the infamous tornado alley in central United States. The design of structures subject to tornado winds is a typical example of decision making in the presence of uncertainty. Structural design involves finding a good balance between the competing goals of safety and economy. This paper presents a methodology to find the optimum balance between these goals in the presence of uncertainty. In this paper, reliability-based risk optimization is used to find the optimal safety coefficient that minimizes the total expected cost of a steel frame communications tower, subject to extreme storm and tornado wind loads. The technique is not new, but it is applied to a practical problem of increasing interest to Brazilian structural engineers. The problem is formulated in the partial safety factor format used in current design codes, with all additional partial factor introduced to serve as optimization variable. The expected cost of failure (or risk) is defined as the product of a. limit state exceedance probability by a limit state exceedance cost. These costs include costs of repairing, rebuilding, and paying compensation for injury and loss of life. The total expected failure cost is the sum of individual expected costs over all failure modes. The steel frame communications, tower subject of this study has become very common in Brazil due to increasing mobile phone coverage. The study shows that optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the cost (or consequences) of failure. Since failure consequences depend oil actual tower location, it turn,,; out that different optimum designs should be used in different locations. Failure consequences are also different for the different parties involved in the design, construction and operation of the tower. Hence, it is important that risk is well understood by the parties involved, so that proper contracts call be made. The investigation shows that when non-structural terms dominate design costs (e.g, in residential or office buildings) it is not too costly to over-design; this observation is in agreement with the observed practice for non-optimized structural systems. In this situation, is much easier to loose money by under-design. When by under-design. When structural material cost is a significant part of design cost (e.g. concrete dam or bridge), one is likely to lose significantmoney by over-design. In this situation, a cost-risk-benefit optimization analysis is highly recommended. Finally, the study also shows that under time-varying loads like tornados, the optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the selected design life.

TCF7L2 variant genotypes and type 2 diabetes risk in Brazil: significant association, but not a significant tool for risk stratification in the general population

Background: Genetic polymorphisms of the TCF7L2 gene are strongly associated with large increments in type 2 diabetes risk in different populations worldwide. In this study, we aimed to confirm the effect of the TCF7L2 polymorphism rs7903146 on diabetes risk in a Brazilian population and to assess the use of this genetic marker in improving diabetes risk prediction in the general population. Methods: We genotyped the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) rs7903146 of the TCF7L2 gene in 560 patients with known coronary disease enrolled in the MASS II (Medicine, Angioplasty, or Surgery Study) Trial and in 1,449 residents of Vitoria, in Southeast Brazil. The associations of this gene variant to diabetes risk and metabolic characteristics in these two different populations were analyzed. To access the potential benefit of using this marker for diabetes risk prediction in the general population we analyzed the impact of this genetic variant on a validated diabetes risk prediction tool based on clinical characteristics developed for the Brazilian general population. Results: SNP rs7903146 of the TCF7L2 gene was significantly associated with type 2 diabetes in the MASS-II population (OR = 1.57 per T allele, p = 0.0032), confirming, in the Brazilian population, previous reports of the literature. Addition of this polymorphism to an established clinical risk prediction score did not increased model accuracy (both area under ROC curve equal to 0.776). Conclusion: TCF7L2 rs7903146 T allele is associated with a 1.57 increased risk for type 2 diabetes in a Brazilian cohort of patients with known coronary heart disease. However, the inclusion of this polymorphism in a risk prediction tool developed for the general population resulted in no improvement of performance. This is the first study, to our knowledge, that has confirmed this recent association in a South American population and adds to the great consistency of this finding in studies around the world. Finally, confirming the biological association of a genetic marker does not guarantee improvement on already established screening tools based solely on demographic variables.

Cost risk benefit analysis to support chemoprophylaxis policy for travellers to malaria endemic countries

Background: In a number of malaria endemic regions, tourists and travellers face a declining risk of travel associated malaria, in part due to successful malaria control. Many millions of visitors to these regions are recommended, via national and international policy, to use chemoprophylaxis which has a well recognized morbidity profile. To evaluate whether current malaria chemo-prophylactic policy for travellers is cost effective when adjusted for endemic transmission risk and duration of exposure. a framework, based on partial cost-benefit analysis was used Methods: Using a three component model combining a probability component, a cost component and a malaria risk component, the study estimated health costs avoided through use of chemoprophylaxis and costs of disease prevention (including adverse events and pre-travel advice for visits to five popular high and low malaria endemic regions) and malaria transmission risk using imported malaria cases and numbers of travellers to malarious countries. By calculating the minimal threshold malaria risk below which the economic costs of chemoprophylaxis are greater than the avoided health costs we were able to identify the point at which chemoprophylaxis would be economically rational. Results: The threshold incidence at which malaria chemoprophylaxis policy becomes cost effective for UK travellers is an accumulated risk of 1.13% assuming a given set of cost parameters. The period a travellers need to remain exposed to achieve this accumulated risk varied from 30 to more than 365 days, depending on the regions intensity of malaria transmission. Conclusions: The cost-benefit analysis identified that chemoprophylaxis use was not a cost-effective policy for travellers to Thailand or the Amazon region of Brazil, but was cost-effective for travel to West Africa and for those staying longer than 45 days in India and Indonesia.