Integrating science through Bayesian Belief Networks : case study of Lyngbya in Moreton Bay

Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) are emerging as valuable tools for investigating complex ecological problems. In a BBN, the important variables in a problem are identified and causal relationships are represented graphically. Underpinning this is the probabilistic framework in which variables can take on a finite range of mutually exclusive states. Associated with each variable is a conditional probability table (CPT), showing the probability of a variable attaining each of its possible states conditioned on all possible combinations of it parents. Whilst the variables (nodes) are connected, the CPT attached to each node can be quantified independently. This allows each variable to be populated with the best data available, including expert opinion, simulation results or observed data. It also allows the information to be easily updated as better data become available ----- ----- This paper reports on the process of developing a BBN to better understand the initial rapid growth phase (initiation) of a marine cyanobacterium, Lyngbya majuscula, in Moreton Bay, Queensland. Anecdotal evidence suggests that Lyngbya blooms in this region have increased in severity and extent over the past decade. Lyngbya has been associated with acute dermatitis and a range of other health problems in humans. Blooms have been linked to ecosystem degradation and have also damaged commercial and recreational fisheries. However, the causes of blooms are as yet poorly understood.

Effect of bone graft type on fusion rates following endoscopic anterior scoliosis correction

Bone graft is generally considered fundamental in achieving solid fusion in scoliosis correction and pseudarthrosis following instrumentation may predispose to implant failure. In endoscopic anterior-instrumented scoliosis surgery, autologous rib or iliac crest graft has been utilised traditionally but both techniques increase operative duration and cause donor site morbidity. Allograft bone and bone- morphogenetic-protein alternatives may improve fusion rates but this remains controversial. This study's objective was to compare two-year postoperative fusion rates in a series of patients who underwent endoscopic anterior instrumentation for thoracic scoliosis utilising various bone graft types. Significantly better rates of fusion occurred in endoscopic anterior instrumented scoliosis correction using femoral allograft compared to autologous rib-heads and iliac crest graft. This may be partly explained by the difficulty obtaining sufficient quantities of autologous graft. Lower fusion rates in the autologous graft group appeared to predispose to rod fracture although the clinical consequence of implant failure is uncertain.

Bayesian versus frequentist statistical inference for investi gating a one-off cancer cluster reported to a health department

Background The problem of silent multiple comparisons is one of the most difficult statistical problems faced by scientists. It is a particular problem for investigating a one-off cancer cluster reported to a health department because any one of hundreds, or possibly thousands, of neighbourhoods, schools, or workplaces could have reported a cluster, which could have been for any one of several types of cancer or any one of several time periods. Methods This paper contrasts the frequentist approach with a Bayesian approach for dealing with silent multiple comparisons in the context of a one-off cluster reported to a health department. Two published cluster investigations were re-analysed using the Dunn-Sidak method to adjust frequentist p-values and confidence intervals for silent multiple comparisons. Bayesian methods were based on the Gamma distribution. Results Bayesian analysis with non-informative priors produced results similar to the frequentist analysis, and suggested that both clusters represented a statistical excess. In the frequentist framework, the statistical significance of both clusters was extremely sensitive to the number of silent multiple comparisons, which can only ever be a subjective "guesstimate". The Bayesian approach is also subjective: whether there is an apparent statistical excess depends on the specified prior. Conclusion In cluster investigations, the frequentist approach is just as subjective as the Bayesian approach, but the Bayesian approach is less ambitious in that it treats the analysis as a synthesis of data and personal judgements (possibly poor ones), rather than objective reality. Bayesian analysis is (arguably) a useful tool to support complicated decision-making, because it makes the uncertainty associated with silent multiple comparisons explicit.

Improved maritime target tracker using colour fusion

Searching for humans lost in vast stretches of ocean has always been a difficult task. This paper investigates a machine vision system that addresses this problem by exploiting the useful properties of alternate colour spaces. In particular, the paper investigates the fusion of colour information from the HSV, RGB, YCbCr and YIQ colour spaces within the emission matrix of a Hidden Markov Model tracker to enhance video based maritime target detection. The system has shown promising results. The paper also identifies challenges still needing to be met.