Double generalized linear model for tissue culture proportion data: a Bayesian perspective

Joint generalized linear models and double generalized linear models (DGLMs) were designed to model outcomes for which the variability can be explained using factors and/or covariates. When such factors operate, the usual normal regression models, which inherently exhibit constant variance, will under-represent variation in the data and hence may lead to erroneous inferences. For count and proportion data, such noise factors can generate a so-called overdispersion effect, and the use of binomial and Poisson models underestimates the variability and, consequently, incorrectly indicate significant effects. In this manuscript, we propose a DGLM from a Bayesian perspective, focusing on the case of proportion data, where the overdispersion can be modeled using a random effect that depends on some noise factors. The posterior joint density function was sampled using Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms, allowing inferences over the model parameters. An application to a data set on apple tissue culture is presented, for which it is shown that the Bayesian approach is quite feasible, even when limited prior information is available, thereby generating valuable insight for the researcher about its experimental results.

Pricing farm-level agricultural insurance: a Bayesian approach

This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Parana (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.

Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

Evolutionary conservation of the membrane fusion machine

Recent structural studies of proteins mediating membrane fusion reveal intriguing similarities between diverse viral and mammalian systems. Particularly striking is the close similarity between the transmembrane envelope glycoproteins from the retrovirus HTLV-1 and the filovirus Ebola. These similarities suggest similar mechanisms of membrane fusion. The model that fits most currently available data suggests fusion activation in viral systems is driven by a symmetrical conformational change triggered by an activation event such as receptor binding or a pH change. The mammalian vesicle fusion mediated by the SNARE protein complex most likely occurs by a similar mechanism but without symmetry constraints.

Multicollinearity and financial constraint in investment decisions: a Bayesian generalized ridge regression

This paper addresses the investment decisions considering the presence of financial constraints of 373 large Brazilian firms from 1997 to 2004, using panel data. A Bayesian econometric model was used considering ridge regression for multicollinearity problems among the variables in the model. Prior distributions are assumed for the parameters, classifying the model into random or fixed effects. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters, considering normal and Student t distributions for the error and assumed that the initial values for the lagged dependent variable are not fixed, but generated by a random process. The recursive predictive density criterion was used for model comparisons. Twenty models were tested and the results indicated that multicollinearity does influence the value of the estimated parameters. Controlling for capital intensity, financial constraints are found to be more important for capital-intensive firms, probably due to their lower profitability indexes, higher fixed costs and higher degree of property diversification.

Bayesian analysis of the error correction model

This paper presents a method for estimating the posterior probability density of the cointegrating rank of a multivariate error correction model. A second contribution is the careful elicitation of the prior for the cointegrating vectors derived from a prior on the cointegrating space. This prior obtains naturally from treating the cointegrating space as the parameter of interest in inference and overcomes problems previously encountered in Bayesian cointegration analysis. Using this new prior and Laplace approximation, an estimator for the posterior probability of the rank is given. The approach performs well compared with information criteria in Monte Carlo experiments. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dermaseptins from Phyllomedusa oreades and Phyllomedusa distincta: Liposomes fusion and/or lysis investigated by fluorescence and atomic force microscopy

Three dermaseptins, DS 01, DD K, and DD L, were compared with respect to their structural features and interactions with liposomes. Circular dichroic spectra at alcohols of different chain lengths revealed that DS 01 has the higher helicogenic potential in hydrophobic media. Binding of DS 01, DD K, and DD L to liposomes induced significant blue shifts of the emission spectra of the single tryptophan located at position 3 of all sequences indicating association of the peptides with bilayers. Kinetics evaluation of atomic force microscopy images evidenced the strong fusogenic activity of DS 01 whereas DD K and DD L showed increased lytic activities. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Molecular characterization of the Hepatitis B virus genotypes in Colombia: A Bayesian inference on the genotype F

Hepatitis B is a worldwide health problem affecting about 2 billion people and more than 350 million are chronic carriers of the virus. Nine HBV genotypes (A to I) have been described. The geographical distribution of HBV genotypes is not completely understood due to the limited number of samples from some parts of the world. One such example is Colombia, in which few studies have described the HBV genotypes. In this study, we characterized HBV genotypes in 143 HBsAg-positive volunteer blood donors from Colombia. A fragment of 1306 bp partially comprising HBsAg and the DNA polymerase coding regions (S/POL) was amplified and sequenced. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses were conducted using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to obtain the maximum clade credibility (MCC) tree using BEAST v.1.5.3. Of all samples, 68 were positive and 52 were successfully sequenced. Genotype F was the most prevalent in this population (77%) - subgenotypes F3 (75%) and Fib (2%). Genotype G (7.7%) and subgenotype A2 (15.3%) were also found. Genotype G sequence analysis suggests distinct introductions of this genotype in the country. Furthermore, we estimated the time of the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) for each HBV/F subgenotype and also for Colombian F3 sequences using two different datasets: (i) 77 sequences comprising 1306 bp of S/POL region and (ii) 283 sequences comprising 681 bp of S/POL region. We also used two other previously estimated evolutionary rates: (i) 2.60 x 10(-4) s/s/y and (ii) 1.5 x 10(-5) s/s/y. Here we report the HBV genotypes circulating in Colombia and estimated the TMRCA for the four different subgenotypes of genotype F. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inactivation of a c-Myb/estrogen receptor fusion protein in transformed primary cells leads to granulocyte/macrophage differentiation and down regulation of c-kit but not c-myc or cdc2

Primary murine fetal hemopoietic cells were transformed with a fusion protein consisting of the ligand-binding domain of the estrogen receptor and a carboxyl-terminally truncated c-Myb protein (ERMYB), The ERMYB-transformed hemopoietic cells exhibit an immature myeloid phenotype when grown in the presence of beta-estradiol. Upon removal of beta-estradiol, the ERMYB cells display increased adherence, decreased clonogenicity and differentiate to cells exhibiting granulocyte or macrophage morphology, The expression of the c-myc, c-kit, cdc2 and bcl-2 genes, which are putatively regulated by Myb, was investigated in ERMYB cells grown in the presence or absence of beta-estradiol. Neither c-myc nor cdc2 expression was down-regulated after removal of beta-estradiol demonstrating that differentiation is not a consequence of decreased transactivation of these genes by ERMYB. While bcl-2 expression was reduced by 50% in ERMYB cells grown in the absence of beta-estradiol, there was no increase in DNA laddering, suggesting that Myb was not protecting ERMYB cells from apoptosis, In contrast, a substantial (200-fold) decrease in c-kit mRNA level was observed following differentiation of ERMYB cells, and c-kit mRNA could be partially re-induced by the re-addition of beta-estradiol. Furthermore, a reporter construct containing the c-kit promoter was activated when cotransfected with a Myb expression vector, providing further evidence of a role for Myb in the regulation of c-kit.

A Bayesian approach to fuzzy hypotheses testing for the estimation of optimal age for vaccination against measles

Fuzzy Bayesian tests were performed to evaluate whether the mother`s seroprevalence and children`s seroconversion to measles vaccine could be considered as ""high"" or ""low"". The results of the tests were aggregated into a fuzzy rule-based model structure, which would allow an expert to influence the model results. The linguistic model was developed considering four input variables. As the model output, we obtain the recommended age-specific vaccine coverage. The inputs of the fuzzy rules are fuzzy sets and the outputs are constant functions, performing the simplest Takagi-Sugeno-Kang model. This fuzzy approach is compared to a classical one, where the classical Bayes test was performed. Although the fuzzy and classical performances were similar, the fuzzy approach was more detailed and revealed important differences. In addition to taking into account subjective information in the form of fuzzy hypotheses it can be intuitively grasped by the decision maker. Finally, we show that the Bayesian test of fuzzy hypotheses is an interesting approach from the theoretical point of view, in the sense that it combines two complementary areas of investigation, normally seen as competitive. (C) 2007 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cryptic SYT/SXX1 fusion gene in high-grade biphasic synovial sarcoma with unique complex rearrangement and extensive BCL2 overexpression

Synovial sarcomas are high-grade malignant mesenchymal tumors that account for 10% of all soft-tissue sarcomas. Almost 95% of these tumors are characterized by a nonrandom chromosomal abnormality, t(X;18)(p11.2;q11.2), that is observed in both biphasic and monophasic variants. In this article, we present the case of a 57-year-old woman diagnosed with high-grade biphasic synovial sarcoma in which conventional cytogenetic analysis revealed the constant presence of a unique t(18;22)(q12;q13), in addition to trisomy 8. The rearrangement was confirmed by fluorescence in situ hybridization. The use of the whole chromosome painting probes WCPX did not detect any rearrangements involving chromosome X, although reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis demonstrated the conspicuous presence of a SYT/SXX1 fusion gene. Spectral karyotyping (SKY) was also performed and revealed an insertion of material from chromosome 18 into one of the X chromosomes at position Xp11.2. Thus, the karyotype was subsequently interpreted as 47,X,der(X)ins(X;18) (p11.2;q11.2q11.2),der(18)del(18)(q11.2q11.2)t(18;22)(q12;q13),der(22)t(18;22). Real-time PCR analysis of BCL2 expression in the tumor sample showed a 433-fold increase. This rare finding exemplifies that thorough molecular-cytogenetic analyses are required to elucidate complex and/or cryptic tumor-specific translocations. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.