Monetary policy rules and estimated reaction functions for the European Central Bank

This thesis studies the interest-rate policy of the ECB by estimating monetary policy rules using real-time data and central bank forecasts. The aim of the estimations is to try to characterize a decade of common monetary policy and to look at how different models perform at this task.The estimated rules include: contemporary Taylor rules, forward-looking Taylor rules, nonlinearrules and forecast-based rules. The nonlinear models allow for the possibility of zone-like preferences and an asymmetric response to key variables. The models therefore encompass the most popular sub-group of simple models used for policy analysis as well as the more unusual non-linear approach. In addition to the empirical work, this thesis also contains a more general discussion of monetary policy rules mostly from a New Keynesian perspective. This discussion includes an overview of some notable related studies, optimal policy, policy gradualism and several other related subjects. The regression estimations are performed with either least squares or the generalized method of moments depending on the requirements of the estimations. The estimations use data from both the Euro Area Real-Time Database and the central bank forecasts published in ECB Monthly Bulletins. These data sources represent some of the best data that is available for this kind of analysis. The main results of this thesis are that forward-looking behavior appears highly prevalent, but that standard forward-looking Taylor rules offer only ambivalent results with regard to inflation. Nonlinear models are shown to work, but on the other hand do not have a strong rationale over a simpler linear formulation. However, the forecasts appear to be highly useful in characterizing policy and may offer the most accurate depiction of a predominantly forward-looking central bank. In particular the inflation response appears much stronger while the output response becomes highly forward-looking as well.

Cruise Report: Summer 2008 Ecological Assessment of Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary NOAA Ship NANCY FOSTER NF-08-09-CCEHBR (June 14-June 21, 2008)

Summary: This cruise report is a summary of a field survey conducted within the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary (SBNMS), located between Cape Cod and Cape Ann at the mouth of Massachusetts Bay. The survey was conducted June 14 – June 21, 2008 on NOAA Ship NANCY FOSTER Cruise NF-08-09-CCEHBR. Multiple indicators of ecological condition and human dimensions were sampled synoptically at each of 30 stations throughout SBNMS using a random probabilistic sampling design. Samples were collected for the analysis of benthic community structure and composition; concentrations of chemical contaminants (metals, pesticides, PAHs, PCBs, PBDEs) in sediments and target demersal biota; nutrient and chlorophyll levels in the water column; and other basic habitat characteristics such as depth, salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, pH, sediment grain size, and organic carbon content. In addition to the fish samples that were collected for analysis of chemical contaminants relative to human-health consumption limits, other human-dimension indicators were sampled as well including presence or absence of fishing gear, vessels, surface trash, marine mammals, and noxious sediment odors. The overall purpose of the survey was to collect data to assess the status of ecosystem condition and potential stressor impacts throughout SBNMS, based on these various indicators and corresponding management thresholds, and to provide this information as a baseline for determining how such conditions may be changing with time. While sample analysis is still ongoing a few preliminary results and observations are reported here. A final report will be completed once all data have been processed. The results are anticipated to be of value in supporting goals of the SBNMS and National Marine Sanctuary Program aimed at the characterization, protection, and management of sanctuary resources (pursuant to the National Marine Sanctuary Reauthorization Act) as well as a new priority of NCCOS and NOAA to apply Ecosystem Based approaches to the Management of coastal resources (EBM) through Integrated Ecosystem Assessments (IEAs) conducted in various coastal regions of the U.S. including the Northeast Atlantic continental shelf. This was a multi-disciplinary partnership effort made possible by scientists from the following organizations:  NOAA, National Ocean Service (NOS), National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS), Center for Coastal Environmental Health and Biomolecular Research (CCEHBR), Charleston, SC.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory (NHEERL), Atlantic Ecology Division (GED), Narragansett, RI.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory (NHEERL), Gulf Ecology Division (GED), Gulf Breeze, FL.  U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), National Wetlands Research Center, Gulf Breeze Project Office, Gulf Breeze, FL.  NOAA, Office of Marine and Aviation Operations (OMAO), NOAA ship Nancy Foster. (31pp) (PDF contains 58 pages)

Developing alternatives for optimal representation of seafloor habitats and associated communities in Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary

The implementation of various types of marine protected areas is one of several management tools available for conserving representative examples of the biological diversity within marine ecosystems in general and National Marine Sanctuaries in particular. However, deciding where and how many sites to establish within a given area is frequently hampered by incomplete knowledge of the distribution of organisms and an understanding of the potential tradeoffs that would allow planners to address frequently competing interests in an objective manner. Fortunately, this is beginning to change. Recent studies on the continental shelf of the northeastern United States suggest that substrate and water mass characteristics are highly correlated with the composition of benthic communities and may therefore, serve as proxies for the distribution of biological biodiversity. A detailed geo-referenced interpretative map of major sediment types within Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary (SBNMS) has recently been developed, and computer-aided decision support tools have reached new levels of sophistication. We demonstrate the use of simulated annealing, a type of mathematical optimization, to identify suites of potential conservation sites within SBNMS that equally represent 1) all major sediment types and 2) derived habitat types based on both sediment and depth in the smallest amount of space. The Sanctuary was divided into 3610 0.5 min2 sampling units. Simulations incorporated constraints on the physical dispersion of sampling units to varying degrees such that solutions included between one and four site clusters. Target representation goals were set at 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 percent of each sediment type, and 10 and 20 percent of each habitat type. Simulations consisted of 100 runs, from which we identified the best solution (i.e., smallest total area) and four nearoptimal alternates. We also plotted total instances in which each sampling unit occurred in solution sets of the 100 runs as a means of gauging the variety of spatial configurations available under each scenario. Results suggested that the total combined area needed to represent each of the sediment types in equal proportions was equal to the percent representation level sought. Slightly larger areas were required to represent all habitat types at the same representation levels. Total boundary length increased in direct proportion to the number of sites at all levels of representation for simulations involving sediment and habitat classes, but increased more rapidly with number of sites at higher representation levels. There were a large number of alternate spatial configurations at all representation levels, although generally fewer among one and two versus three- and four-site solutions. These differences were less pronounced among simulations targeting habitat representation, suggesting that a similar degree of flexibility is inherent in the spatial arrangement of potential protected area systems containing one versus several sites for similar levels of habitat representation. We attribute these results to the distribution of sediment and depth zones within the Sanctuary, and to the fact that even levels of representation were sought in each scenario. (PDF contains 33 pages.)

Impact of Nigerian Agricultural Cooperative and Rural Development Bank (NACRDB) loan to artisanal fishermen in Lake Kainji

This study was conducted to assess the impact of Nigerian Agricultural, Co-operative and Rural Development Bank Loan on beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries fishermen in Lake Kainji. A total of fifty fishermen (25 beneficiaries and 25 non-beneficiaries) were randomly selected from five fishing villages along the lake basin. Data collected were scored and the percentages of the parameters were calculated appropriately. The types of loans disbursed to beneficiaries revealed that 52% was cash and 48% was in kind. The credit package ranged between N5, 000 to N150, 000 only. Only 48% of the loans granted were paid while the rest remained unpaid. The results obtained from the membership of fishermen Cooperative showed that 64% of beneficiaries were members while 36% were non-members. Also 36% of non-beneficiaries were members while 64% were not. The Common fishing gears used by the two categories of fishermen include gillnets longline, castnet and driftnets. Sixty percent of beneficiaries and 8% of non-beneficiaries fishermen were using canoe with outboard engines while the rest used canoes with paddles. Beneficiaries earned a higher income (N1, 000 to N9, 000) daily than non-beneficiaries (N1, 000 to N6, 000) daily from sales of fish caught. Major contrainsts to increased catch and income identified include inadequate capital, non- availability of fishing inputs, stealing of fishing gears, lack of access to credit facilities and menace of stump and water hyacinth in the lake. Lastly, recommendation were made for the bank management, government and other lending institutions on how to improve the livelihood of the Artisanal fishermen by increasing the loan usually granted

Assessment of fish populations and habitat on Oculina Bank, a deep-sea coral marine protected area off eastern Florida

A portion of the Oculina Bank located off eastern Florida is a marine protected area (MPA) preserved for its dense populations of the ivory tree coral (Oculina varicosa), which provides important habitat for fish. Surveys of fish assemblages and benthic habitat were conducted inside and outside the MPA in 2003 and 2005 by using remotely operated vehicle video transects and digital still imagery. Fish species composition, biodiversity, and grouper densities were used to determine whether O. varicosa forms an essential habitat compared to other structure-forming habitats and to examine the effectiveness of the MPA. Multivariate analyses indicated no differences in fish assemblages or biodiversity among hardbottom habitat types and grouper densities were highest among the most complex habitats; however the higher densities were not exclusive to coral habitat. Therefore, we conclude that O. varicosa was functionally equivalent to other hardbottom habitats. Even though fish assemblages were not different among management areas, biodiversity and grouper densities were higher inside the MPA compared to outside. The percentage of intact coral was also higher inside the MPA. These results provide initial evidence demonstrating effectiveness of the MPA for restoring reef fish and their habitat. This is the first study to compare reef fish populations on O. varicosa with other structure-forming reef habitats and also the first to examine the effectiveness of the MPA for restoring fish populations and live reef cover.

Stillwaters monitoring programme.Summary results 2003 and 2004

This is the Stillwaters monitoring programme. Summary results 2003 and 2004 from the Environment Agency North West. This report is focuses in The Winter Monitoring of Stillwaters Programme, which began in January 2001 with the aim of gathering long term data on nutrient abundance over winter months. This allows assessment of nutrient ‘carry-over’ available for algal growth in the following year, plus year-on-year productivity. 14 stillwaters are monitored each year. The environmental issues associated with each Stillwater are summarised in the table below. Bank-side water samples are taken for nutrients (N, P and S) and chlorophyll. A YSI multi-parameter sonde measures temperature, pH, specific conductivity and dissolved oxygen (% saturation). Survey results shown in this report came from: Oak Mere and Bar mere.

Stillwaters monitoring programme. Summary results 2004 and 2005

This is the Stillwaters monitoring programme. Summary results 2004 and 2005 from the Environment Agency North West. This report focuses on the 5th year of winter monitoring analysis in 14 stillwaters in Cheshire. The 14 stillwaters analysed are: Comber Mere, Oss Mere, Marbury Big Mere, Chapel Mere, Bar Mere, Oak Mere, Hatch Mere, Black Lake, Betley Mere, Tabley Mere, Melchett Mere, Tatton Mere, Rostherne Mere and Mere mere. Nutrient availability in the stillwaters analysed is used to look into the productivity of the waterbody. Bank-side water samples were taken for nutrients (Nitrogen and Phosphorous) and chlorophyll. A YSI multi-parameter sonde measures temperature, pH, specific conductivity and dissolved oxygen (% saturation).

Seabed classification for trawlability determined with a multibeam echo sounder on Snakehead Bank in the Gulf of Alaska

Rockfishes (Sebastes spp.) tend to aggregate near rocky, cobble, or generally rugged areas that are difficult to survey with bottom trawls, and evidence indicates that assemblages of rockfish species may differ between areas accessible to trawling and those areas that are not. Consequently, it is important to determine grounds that are trawlable or untrawlable so that the areas where trawl survey results should be applied are accurately identified. To this end, we used multibeam echosounder data to generate metrics that describe the seafloor: backscatter strength at normal and oblique incidence angles, the variation of the angle-dependent backscatter strength within 10° of normal incidence, the scintillation of the acoustic intensity scattered from the seafloor, and the seafloor rugosity. We used these metrics to develop a binary classification scheme to estimate where the seafloor is expected to be trawlable. The multibeam echosounder data were verified through analyses of video and still images collected with a stereo drop camera and a remotely operated vehicle in a study at Snakehead Bank, ~100 km south of Kodiak Island in the Gulf of Alaska. Comparisons of different combinations of metrics derived from the multibeam data indicated that the oblique-incidence backscatter strength was the most accurate estimator of trawlability at Snakehead Bank and that the addition of other metrics provided only marginal improvements. If successful on a wider scale in the Gulf of Alaska, this acoustic remote-sensing technique, or a similar one, could help improve the accuracy of rockfish stock assessments.

A Biogeographic assessment off North/Central California: In support of the National Marine Sanctuaries of Cordell Bank, Gulf of the Farallones and Monterey Bay. Phase II - Environmental setting and update to marine birds and animals

NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) conducts and supports research, monitoring, assessments, and technical assistance to meet NOAA’s coastal stewardship and management responsibilities. In 2001 the Biogeography Branch of NCCOS partnered with NOAA’s National Marine Sanctuary Program (NMSP) to conduct biogeographic assessments to support the management plan updates for the sanctuaries. The first biogeographic assessment conducted in this partnership focused on three sanctuaries off north/ central California: Cordell Bank, Gulf of the Farallones and Monterey Bay. Phase I of this assessment was conducted from 2001 to 2004, with the primary goal to identify and gather the best available data and information to characterize and identify important biological areas and time periods within the study area. The study area encompasses the three sanctuaries and extends along the coastal ocean off California from Pt. Arena to Pt. Sal (35°-39°N). This partnership project was lead by the NCCOS Biogeography Branch, but included over 90 contributors and 25 collaborating institutions. Phase I results include: 1) a report on the overall assessment that includes hundreds of maps, tables and analyses; 2) an ecological linkage report on the marine and estuarine ecosystems along the coast of north/central California, and 3) related geographic information system (GIS) data and other summary data files, which are available for viewing and download in several formats at the following website: http://ccma.nos.noaa.gov/products/biogeography/canms_cd/welcome.html Phase II (this report) was initiated in the Fall of 2004 to complete the analyses of marine mammals and update the marine bird colony information. Phase II resulted in significant updates to the bird and mammal chapters, as well as adding an environmental settings chapter, which contains new and existing data and maps on the study area. Specifically, the following Phase II topics and items were either revised or developed new for Phase II: •environmental, ecological settings – new maps on marine physiographic features, sea surface temperature and fronts, chlorophyll and productivity •all bird colony or roost maps, including a summary of marine bird colonies •updated at-sea data CDAS data set (1980-2003) •all mammal maps and descriptions •new overall density maps for eight mammal species •new summary pinniped rookery/haulout map •new maps on at-sea richness for cetaceans and pinnipeds •most text in the mammal chapter •new summary tables for mammals on population status and spatial and temporal patterns

Impact of the invasive colonial tunicate Didemnum vexillum on the recruitment of the bay scallop (Argopecten irradians irradians) and implications for recruitment of the sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) on Georges Bank

The invasive colonial tunicate Didemnum vexillum has become widespread in New England waters, colonizing large areas of shell-gravel bottom on Georges Bank including commercial sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) grounds. Didemnum vexillum colonies are also fouling coastal shellfish aquaculture gear which increases maintenance costs and may affect shellfish growth rates. We hypothesized that D. vexillum will continue to spread and may affect shellfish larval settlement and survival. We conducted a laboratory experiment to assess interactions between larval bay scallops (Argopectin irradians irradians) and D. vexillum. We found that larval bay scallops avoid settling on D. vexillum colonies, possibly deterred by the low pH of the tunicate’s surface tissue. The results of this study suggest that widespread colonization of substrata by D. vexillum could affect scallop recruitment by reducing the area of quality habitats available for settlement. We propose that the bay scallop can serve as a surrogate for the sea scallop in estimating the negative impact D. vexillum could have on the recruitment of sea scallops on Georges Bank.

Assessment and possible development of the fishery resources of Pedro Bank

Pedro Bank is about 1,300 square miles in extent and lies at the mouth of the Palk Strait close to the mainland, enabling smaller boats to exploit it. Trawl surveys indicated the presence of substantial demersal varieties on the Pedro Bank, but the results of the early commercial operations indicate that a 135-foot trawler may not be operated continuously on the bank without diminishing returns. Subsequent to the commercial operations extensive surveys with smaller boats and various types of gear were carried out. Of the various types of gear tried out, results from bottom long lining and hand lining operations were promising. Trials were carried out to compare these two types of gear. Though not extensive, these trials indicated that at the initial stages of exploitation of the Bank, hand lining, which is extensively practiced in Ceylon, may be better but as exploitation progresses; with more experience, it should be possible to overcome some of the present disadvantages of bottom long lining and eventually bottom long lining should produce better results. The recently introduced mechanised craft are exploiting only the fringe of the bank and it should be possible to exploit its stocks fully with slightly bigger boats with a 35-40 mile range.

Seasonal variation in the distribution and availability of Carangids ("Paraw" and "Parati") in the Wadge Bank

The Wadge Bank has been exploited regularly by Ceylon based trawlers since 1955 (Sivalingam & Medcof 1957). The bank is about 4,000 sq. miles in extent (Malpas 1926) and is located south of Cape Comorin within the Continental Shelf of India (Fig. 1). Carangids are taken in large numbers during the months of the south west monsoon (Sivalingam 1966). The quantity, in which the Carangids are captured as shown by the fishing records, is large enough to influence the total catch from the bank during these months (Fig. 2). Carangids are held in high esteem as excellent quality food fishes and accordingly constitute a commercially important group. This paper records the results of a detailed examination of the past fishing records in respect of this group, based on the analysis of the catch and fishing effort for the years 1957 to 1962. The distribution pattern of this group of fish in the Wadge Bank is discussed.

Results of the Austrian-Ceylonese hydrobiological mission 1970 of the 1st Zoological Institute of the University of Vienna (Austria) and the Department of Zoology of the Vidyalankara University of Ceylon, Kelaniya. Pt. 1. Preliminary report: introduction and description of the stations

The Austrian-Ceylonese hydrobiological mission of 1970 investigated and made collections from 36 flowing water systems (brooks, torrents, rivers); of these, 34 water systems were in the mountains regions of south-west and south-east of Sri Lanka. In the crystalline mountain region, the water systems are extremely poor in electrolytes, very soft and slightly acid; these torrential streams have strong falls, high flow velocities and boulder bottoms. The water temperatures increase from the sources and brooks at 2,000 m altitude to the mouths from 15°C to 28°C. The density of animal population (macro and meso-fauna) increases from the river bank regions (and pools) towards the sections with strong current and reaches on the rocks in the cascades a density of 500 to appr. 750 individuals/1/16m².

Reproduction, age and growth of the Indian mackerel, Rastrelliger kanagurta (Cuvier, 1816) from Sofala Bank, Mozambique

A compilation of all the available information on the main small pelagic fish resources of Mozambican waters is presented. Resource data on distribution areas, reproduction, age, growth and stock size are described. Actual catch and catch per unit of effort of the commercially exploited stocks are also given. Results of the preliminary assessment of the stocks of scad and mackerel and the problems involving the assessment of Kelee shad stock at Maputo Bay are discussed.

Construction of 2-D directional filter bank by cascading checkerboard-shaped filter pair and CMFB

In this paper, we propose a new approach to construct a 2-dimensional (2-D) directional filter bank (DFB) by cascading a 2-D nonseparable checkerboard-shaped filter pair and 2-D separable cosine modulated filter bank (CMFB). Similar to diagonal subbands in 2-D separable wavelets, most of the subbands in 2-D separable CMFBs, tensor products of two 1-D CMFBs, are poor in directional selectivity due to the fact that the frequency supports of most of the subband filters are concentrated along two different directions. To improve the directional selectivity, we propose a new DFB to realize the subband decomposition. First, a checkerboard-shaped filter pair is used to decompose an input image into two images containing different directional information of the original image. Next, a 2-D separable CMFB is applied to each of the two images for directional decomposition. The new DFB is easy in design and has merits: low redundancy ratio and fine directional-frequency tiling. As its application, the BLS-GSM algorithm for image denoising is extended to use the new DFBs. Experimental results show that the proposed DFB achieves better denoising performance than the methods using other DFBs for images of abundant textures. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.