A hipótese de Samuelson no mercado futuro brasileiro: um estudo empírico

A pesquisa objetivou testar a existência, no mercado futuro brasileiro, do fenômeno que a literatura batizou como a Hipótese de Samuelson, que postula que a volatilidade dos retornos de preços futuros aumenta à medida que o vencimento do contrato respectivo se aproxima. Para testar a hipótese em foco, foram utilizados dados dos seguintes contratos futuros, negociados na BM&F - Bolsa de Mercadorias & Futuros : contrato futuro de Ibovespa, contrato futuro de dólar comercial, contrato futuro de boi gordo e contrato futuro de café arábica. O período abrangido estendeu-se de 30 de junho de 1994 a 30 de abril de 1998. Aplicação de quatro testes distintos a cada contrato não autoriza afirmar-se que a Hipótese de Samuelson se observa no mercado futuro brasileiro.

Letter of the Most Rev. Dr. Nulty, Bishop of Meath, to B. Samuelson, Esq., M.P, Banbury : in reply to a pamphlet written by C. W. Hamilton, Esq.

Mode of access: Internet.

Speech training for primary grades / issued by the Department of public instruction, Agnes Samuelson, superintendent, 1938

This bulletin is intended to provide teachers of the early elementary grades with outlines and suggestions which they may use to improve the speech habits of their pupils.

Some bounds of loss in classical semideterministic immunization

Since Samuelson, Redington and Fisher and Weil, duration and immunization are very important topics in bond portfolio analysis from both a theoretical and a practical point of view. Many results have been established, especially in semi-deterministic framework. As regards, however, the loss may be sustained, we do not think that the subject has been investigated enough, except for the results found in the wake of the theorem of Fong and Vasicek. In this paper we present some results relating to the limitation of the loss in the case of local immunization for multiple liabilities.

Determinants of Portuguese external imbalances

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Severe dengue in the early postoperative period after kidney transplantation: two case reports from Hospital Geral de Fortaleza

Abstract: Dengue is an arbovirosis that ranges from an asymptomatic presentation to a more severe disease, which is characterized by a vascular leakage syndrome where abdominal pain is a major symptom. Transplant recipients are immunosuppressed and are less likely to develop a severe form of the disease because of a reduction in immune-mediated responses that trigger plasma extravasation events. Herein, we report two cases of severe dengue in the early postoperative period of two kidney transplant recipients. Considering the severity of the cases, we emphasize the importance of dengue screening immediately before transplantation in areas endemic for the disease.

Competitividad de la agroindustria de la carne bovina: Evaluación de la Ronda Uruguay y los nuevos acuerdos de accesos a los mercados

Los cambios ocurridos en los mercados internacionales, principalmente los acuerdos logrados en la Ronda Uruguay, la superación por parte de Argentina del problema de la aftosa y los avances en el Mercosur conforman un nuevo escenario comercial para Argentina. Sin embargo, la capacidad de la oferta exportable cárnica del país parece ser una limitante a este nuevo desafío que implica la participación de Argentina en el mercado mundial de carne vacuna. Por ello y con la finalidad de brindar elementos para el diseño de políticas externas alternativas para la agroindustria cárnica, resulta de gran interés estimar tanto la disparidad existente entre la potencial participación de Argentina en los mercados internacionales y la oferta interna de carne como así también evaluar los efectos de creación y desvío de comercio que se producen ante las nuevas oportunidades comerciales. La identificación de los importadores -actuales y potenciales- de carne, proveniente de Argentina, se efectuará a partir de la observación documentaria, estimándose la potencial demanda externa de carne a partir del cálculo de las elasticidades, ingreso de la demanda de importaciones (Balassa, 1967). La evaluación de los efectos de creación y desvío de comercio se realizará aplicando las fórmulas de cálculo empleadas por Uhm y Koo (1990). En caso de ser necesario, dadas las características del producto y de los mercados importadores, se introducirán dos modificaciones a las mismas: por un lado, se incorporará la elasticidad de sustitución entre importaciones del producto con distintos orígenes y por otro lado se aplicará la elasticidad de la oferta doméstica del producto con valores diferentes de infinito (Figueroa y Muchnik, 1994). (...) el proyecto tiene como finalidad examinar las corrientes actuales y potenciales (o proyectadas) de comercio de carne bovina entre Argentina y el resto del mundo para el período 1991-1997, considerando distintos escenarios que varían de acuerdo a los supuestos que se fijen en relación al stock ganadero y a la tasa de extracción. Objetivos generales: * Identificar los países que a partir de los acuerdos de acceso de mercados (Ronda Uruguay) serán potenciales consumidores de carne argentina. * Evaluar los volúmenes de carne importados por parte de los países de Asia, luego de los acuerdos sanitarios firmados. * Indagar sobre la demanda potencial de los clientes tradicionales de Argentina: Unión Europea, E.E.U.U., Chile y Brasil. Objetivos específicos: * Estimar los efectos de creación y desvío de comercio para Argentina resultantes de las corrientes de comercio de carne bovina. * Calcular las elasticidades de ingreso de la demanda de importaciones de carne bovina para los actuales y potenciales clientes de Argentina. * Evaluar la oferta interna de carne bovina considerando diferentes tasa de extracción del rodeo.

Dieta de espécies de Anostomidae (Teleostei, Characiformes) na área de influência do reservatório de Manso, Mato Grosso, Brasil

The diet of four species of Anostomidae (Leporinus friderici Bloch, 1794, L. striatus Kner, 1858, L. elongatus Valenciennes, 1849 and Leporinus sp.) were investigated in the Manso Reservoir, Mato Grosso State, Brazil. Fish were sampled in three sites: upriver, in the main body of the reservoir, and below the dam. Were analized 276 stomachs. The diet was evaluated using the frequency of ocorrence and volumetric methods. Leporinus friderici showed tendency to herbivory, mainly in the upriver site. In the reservoir and below the dam, it consumed large quantities of fish; Isoptera only in the reservoir. Leporinus striatus and L. elongatus have similar diets, consuming Chironomidae larvae (Diptera), whereas Leporinus sp. was more generalist, feeding similar proportions of vegetable, detritus and insect (Chironomidae and Ephemeroptera). The mouths of the species have different positions: terminal in L. friderici, subterminal in L. elongatus and intermediate in L. striatus and Leporinus sp. The diet overlap values were low, except for L. friderici and Leporinus sp. (0.7) in the upriver, and L. striatus and L. elongatus (0.6) below the dam.

Ecologia alimentar da corvina, Pachyurus bonariensis (Perciformes, Sciaenidae) em duas baías do Pantanal, Mato Grosso, Brasil

Foi investigada a dieta de Pachyurus bonariensis Steindachner, 1879 associando-a à variações espaciais, temporais e ontogenéticas. Os peixes foram coletados mensalmente de março/2000 a fevereiro/2001 e de agosto/2002 a fevereiro/2003 em duas baías do Pantanal, Chacororé e Sinhá Mariana. Conteúdos estomacais de 359 exemplares foram analisados através dos métodos de freqüência de ocorrência e volumétrico. A dieta foi composta essencialmente por larvas bentônicas de Chironomidae e Ephemeroptera, independente do local e período (seca e cheia) analisados. Entretanto, nota-se marcante diferença na composição alimentar de acordo com o tamanho do peixe. Os menores exemplares (comprimento padrão = 1,6 a 7,2 cm) consumiram preferencialmente Chironomidae e os maiores (comprimento padrão = 13,0 a 18,6 cm) Ephemeroptera. Conclui-se que P. bonariensis tem hábito alimentar bentívoro e especializado, devido principalmente ao restrito espectro alimentar aliado à posição e forma da boca adaptada a explorar o substrato.

Revealed cardinal preference

I prove that as long as we allow the marginal utility for money (lambda) to vary between purchases (similarly to the budget) then the quasi-linear and the ordinal budget-constrained models rationalize the same data. However, we know that lambda is approximately constant. I provide a simple constructive proof for the necessary and sufficient condition for the constant lambda rationalization, which I argue should replace the Generalized Axiom of Revealed Preference in empirical studies of consumer behavior. 'Go Cardinals!' It is the minimal requirement of any scientifi c theory that it is consistent with the data it is trying to explain. In the case of (Hicksian) consumer theory it was revealed preference -introduced by Samuelson (1938,1948) - that provided an empirical test to satisfy this need. At that time most of economic reasoning was done in terms of a competitive general equilibrium, a concept abstract enough so that it can be built on the ordinal preferences over baskets of goods - even if the extremely specialized ones of Arrow and Debreu. However, starting in the sixties, economics has moved beyond the 'invisible hand' explanation of how -even competitive- markets operate. A seemingly unavoidable step of this 'revolution' was that ever since, most economic research has been carried out in a partial equilibrium context. Now, the partial equilibrium approach does not mean that the rest of the markets are ignored, rather that they are held constant. In other words, there is a special commodity -call it money - that reflects the trade-offs of moving purchasing power across markets. As a result, the basic building block of consumer behavior in partial equilibrium is no longer the consumer's preferences over goods, rather her valuation of them, in terms of money. This new paradigm necessitates a new theory of revealed preference.

Effect of training-sample size and classification difficulty on the accuracy of genomic predictors.

Introduction: As part of the MicroArray Quality Control (MAQC)-II project, this analysis examines how the choice of univariate feature-selection methods and classification algorithms may influence the performance of genomic predictors under varying degrees of prediction difficulty represented by three clinically relevant endpoints. Methods: We used gene-expression data from 230 breast cancers (grouped into training and independent validation sets), and we examined 40 predictors (five univariate feature-selection methods combined with eight different classifiers) for each of the three endpoints. Their classification performance was estimated on the training set by using two different resampling methods and compared with the accuracy observed in the independent validation set. Results: A ranking of the three classification problems was obtained, and the performance of 120 models was estimated and assessed on an independent validation set. The bootstrapping estimates were closer to the validation performance than were the cross-validation estimates. The required sample size for each endpoint was estimated, and both gene-level and pathway-level analyses were performed on the obtained models. Conclusions: We showed that genomic predictor accuracy is determined largely by an interplay between sample size and classification difficulty. Variations on univariate feature-selection methods and choice of classification algorithm have only a modest impact on predictor performance, and several statistically equally good predictors can be developed for any given classification problem.