Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

INTRODUÇÃO: A malaria é uma doença endêmica na região da Amazônia Brasileira, e a detecção de possíveis fatores de risco pode ser de grande interesse às autoridades em saúde pública. O objetivo deste artigo é investigar a associação entre variáveis ambientais e os registros anuais de malária na região amazônica usando métodos bayesianos espaço-temporais. MÉTODOS: Utilizaram-se modelos de regressão espaço-temporais de Poisson para analisar os dados anuais de contagem de casos de malária entre os anos de 1999 a 2008, considerando a presença de alguns fatores como a taxa de desflorestamento. em uma abordagem bayesiana, as inferências foram obtidas por métodos Monte Carlo em cadeias de Markov (MCMC) que simularam amostras para a distribuição conjunta a posteriori de interesse. A discriminação de diferentes modelos também foi discutida. RESULTADOS: O modelo aqui proposto sugeriu que a taxa de desflorestamento, o número de habitants por km² e o índice de desenvolvimento humano (IDH) são importantes para a predição de casos de malária. CONCLUSÕES: É possível concluir que o desenvolvimento humano, o crescimento populacional, o desflorestamento e as alterações ecológicas associadas a estes fatores estão associados ao aumento do risco de malária. Pode-se ainda concluir que o uso de modelos de regressão de Poisson que capturam o efeito temporal e espacial em um enfoque bayesiano é uma boa estratégia para modelar dados de contagem de malária.

Forest natural regeneration and biomass production after slash and burn in a seasonally dry forest in the Southern Brazilian Amazon

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Analysis of the Electrical Characteristics of an Alternative Solution for the Brazilian-Amazon Transmission System

This article analyzes the electrical parameters of a 3-phase transmission line using a 280-m-high steel tower that has been proposed for the Amazon transmission system in Brazil. The height of the line conductors and the distance between them are intrinsically related to the longitudinal and transverse parameters of the line. Hence, an accurate study is carried out in order to show the electrical variations between a transmission line using the new technology and a conventional 3-phase 440-kV line, considering a wide range of frequencies and variable soil resistivity. First, a brief review of the fundamental theory of line parameters is presented. In addition, by using a digital line model, simulations are carried out in the time domain to analyze possible and critical over-voltage transients on the proposed line representation.

Population structure of the malaria vector Anopheles darlingi in Rondônia, Brazilian Amazon, based on mitochondrial DNA

Anopheles darlingi is the most important Brazilian malaria vector, with a widespread distribution in the Amazon forest. Effective strategies for vector control could be better developed through knowledge of its genetic structure and gene flow among populations, to assess the vector diversity and competence in transmitting Plasmodium. The aim of this study was to assess the genetic diversity of An. darlingi collected at four locations in Porto Velho, by sequencing a fragment of the ND4 mitochondrial gene. From 218 individual mosquitoes, we obtained 20 different haplotypes with a diversity index of 0.756, equivalent to that found in other neotropical anophelines. The analysis did not demonstrate significant population structure. However, haplotype diversity within some populations seems to be over-represented, suggesting the presence of sub-populations, but the presence of highly represented haplotypes complicates this analysis. There was no clear correlation among genetic and geographical distance and there were differences in relation to seasonality, which is important for malarial epidemiology.

Activity pattern of Cuniculus paca (Rodentia: Cuniculidae) in relation to lunar illumination and other abiotic variables in the southern Brazilian Amazon

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Modeling the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of deforestation-driven carbon emissions: the INPE-EM framework applied to the Brazilian Amazon

We present a generic spatially explicit modeling framework to estimate carbon emissions from deforestation (INPE-EM). The framework incorporates the temporal dynamics related to the deforestation process and accounts for the biophysical and socioeconomic heterogeneity of the region under study. We build an emission model for the Brazilian Amazon combining annual maps of new clearings, four maps of biomass, and a set of alternative parameters based on the recent literature. The most important results are as follows: (a) Using different biomass maps leads to large differences in estimates of emission; for the entire region of the Brazilian Amazon in the last decade, emission estimates of primary forest deforestation range from 0.21 to 0.26 similar to Pg similar to C similar to yr-1. (b) Secondary vegetation growth presents a small impact on emission balance because of the short duration of secondary vegetation. In average, the balance is only 5% smaller than the primary forest deforestation emissions. (c) Deforestation rates decreased significantly in the Brazilian Amazon in recent years, from 27 similar to Mkm2 in 2004 to 7 similar to Mkm2 in 2010. INPE-EM process-based estimates reflect this decrease even though the agricultural frontier is moving to areas of higher biomass. The decrease is slower than a non-process instantaneous model would estimate as it considers residual emissions (slash, wood products, and secondary vegetation). The average balance, considering all biomass, decreases from 0.28 in 2004 to 0.15 similar to Pg similar to C similar to yr-1 in 2009; the non-process model estimates a decrease from 0.33 to 0.10 similar to Pg similar to C similar to yr-1. We conclude that the INPE-EM is a powerful tool for representing deforestation-driven carbon emissions. Biomass estimates are still the largest source of uncertainty in the effective use of this type of model for informing mechanisms such as REDD+. The results also indicate that efforts to reduce emissions should focus not only on controlling primary forest deforestation but also on creating incentives for the restoration of secondary forests.

Molecular screening of Plasmodium sp. asymptomatic carriers among transfusion centers from Brazilian Amazon region

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Duffy blood group gene polymorphisms among malaria vivax patients in four areas of the Brazilian Amazon region

Background: Duffy blood group polymorphisms are important in areas where Plasmodium vivax predominates, because this molecule acts as a receptor for this protozoan. In the present study, Duffy blood group genotyping in P. vivax malaria patients from four different Brazilian endemic areas is reported, exploring significant associations between blood group variants and susceptibility or resistance to malaria.Methods: the P. vivax identification was determined by non-genotypic and genotypic screening tests. The Duffy blood group was genotyped by PCR/RFLP in 330 blood donors and 312 malaria patients from four Brazilian Amazon areas. In order to assess the variables significance and to obtain independence among the proportions, the Fisher's exact test was used.Results: the data show a high frequency of the FYA/FYB genotype, followed by FYB/FYB, FYA/FYA, FYA/FYB-33 and FYB/FYB-33. Low frequencies were detected for the FYA/FY(X), FYB/FY(X), FYX/FY(X) and FYB-33/FYB-33 genotypes. Negative Duffy genotype (FYB-33/FYB-33) was found in both groups: individuals infected and non-infected (blood donors). No individual carried the FY(X)/FYB-33 genotype. Some of the Duffy genotypes frequencies showed significant differences between donors and malaria patients.Conclusion: the obtained data suggest that individuals with the FYA/FYB genotype have higher susceptibility to malaria. The presence of the FYB-33 allele may be a selective advantage in the population, reducing the rate of infection by P. vivax in this region. Additional efforts may contribute to better elucidate the physiopathologic differences in this parasite/host relationship in regions endemic for P. vivax malaria, in particular the Brazilian Amazon region.

Plasmodium vivax infection among Duffy antigen-negative individuals from the Brazilian Amazon region: an exception?

We present evidence for Plasmodium vivax infection among Duffy blood group-negative inhabitants of Brazil. The P. vivax identification was determined by both genotypic and non-genotypic screening tests. The Duffy blood group was genotyped by PCR/RFLP and phenotyped using a microtyping kit. We detected two homozygous FY*B-33 carriers infected by P vivax, whose circumsporozoite protein genotypes were VK210 and/or P. vivax-like. Additional efforts are necessary in order to clarify the evidence that P. vivax is being transmitted among Duffy blood group-negative patients from the Brazilian Amazon region. (C) 2007 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Frequencies of ABO, MNSs, and Duffy phenotypes among blood donors and malaria patients from four Brazilian Amazon areas

We compared the serological phenotypic frequencies of ABO, MNSs, and Duffy in 417 blood donors and 309 malaria patients from four Brazilian Amazon areas. Our results suggest no correlation between ABO phenotype and malaria infection in all areas studied. We observed significant correlation between the S + s +, S + s-, and S - s + phenotypes and malaria infection in three areas. Some of the Duffy phenotypes showed significant correlation between donors and malaria patients in different areas. These data are an additional contribution to the establishment of differential host susceptibility to malaria.

Natural Conditions and Environmental Impacts in a Coastal Hydrographic Basin in the Brazilian Amazon

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Effects of selective logging on the mating system and pollen dispersal of Hymenaea courbaril L. (Leguminosae) in the Eastern Brazilian Amazon as revealed by microsatellite analysis

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Asymptomatic carriers of Plasmodium spp. as infection source for malaria vector mosquitoes in the Brazilian Amazon

We have described the existence of asymptomatic carriers of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum infections in native Amazon populations. Most of them had low parasitemias, detected only by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Because they remain symptomless and untreated, we wanted to determine whether they could infect Anopheles darlingi Root, the main Brazilian vector, and act as disease reservoirs. Fifteen adult asymptomatic patients (PCR positive only) were selected, and experimental infections of mosquitoes were performed by direct feeding and by a membrane-feeding system. Seventeen adult symptomatic patients with high parasitemias were used as controls. We found an infection rate in An. darlingi of 1.2% for the asymptomatic carriers and 22% for the symptomatic carriers. Although the asymptomatic group infected mosquitoes at a much lower rate, these patients remain infective longer than treated, symptomatic patients. Also, the prevalence of asymptomatic infections is 4 to 5 times higher than symptomatic infections among natives. These results have implications for the malaria control program in Brazil, which focuses essentially on the treatment of symptomatic patients. © 2005 Entomological Society of America.