Essai sur l'influence de nos vents variables sur la temperature des saisons, ainsi que sur la cause de ces vents : avec deux notes relatives à la théorie des marées de l'océan /

MH copy has 2 leaves of plates not found in LC copy nor in any other copy reported to NUC pre-1956.

Atmospheric calibration for sub-millimeter radio astronomy

This thesis is focused on improving the calibration accuracy of sub-millimeter astronomical observations. The wavelength range covered by observational radio astronomy has been extended to sub-millimeter and far infrared with the advancement of receiver technology in recent years. Sub-millimeter observations carried out with airborne and ground-based telescopes typically suffer from 10% to 90% attenuation of the astronomical source signals by the terrestrial atmosphere. The amount of attenuation can be derived from the measured brightness of the atmospheric emission. In order to do this, the knowledge of the atmospheric temperature and chemical composition, as well as the frequency-dependent optical depth at each place along the line of sight is required. The altitude-dependent air temperature and composition are estimated using a parametrized static atmospheric model, which is described in Chapter 2, because direct measurements are technically and financially infeasible. The frequency dependent optical depth of the atmosphere is computed with a radiative transfer model based on the theories of quantum mechanics and, in addition, some empirical formulae. The choice, application, and improvement of third party radiative transfer models are discussed in Chapter 3. The application of the calibration procedure, which is described in Chapter 4, to the astronomical data observed with the SubMillimeter Array Receiver for Two Frequencies (SMART), and the German REceiver for Astronomy at Terahertz Frequencies (GREAT), is presented in Chapters 5 and 6. The brightnesses of atmospheric emission were fitted consistently to the simultaneous multi-band observation data from GREAT at 1.2 ∼ 1.4 and 1.8 ∼ 1.9 THz with a single set of parameters of the static atmospheric model. On the other hand, the cause of the inconsistency between the model parameters fitted from the 490 and 810 GHz data of SMART is found to be the lack of calibration of the effective cold load temperature. Besides the correctness of atmospheric modeling, the stability of the receiver is also important to achieving optimal calibration accuracy. The stabilities of SMART and GREAT are analyzed with a special calibration procedure, namely the “load calibration". The effects of the drift and fluctuation of the receiver gain and noise temperature on calibration accuracy are discussed in Chapters 5 and 6. Alternative observing strategies are proposed to combat receiver instability. The methods and conclusions presented in this thesis are applicable to the atmospheric calibration of sub-millimeter astronomical observations up to at least 4.7 THz (the H channel frequency of GREAT) for observations carried out from ∼ 4 to 14 km altitude. The procedures for receiver gain calibration and stability test are applicable to other instruments using the same calibration approach as that for SMART and GREAT. The structure of the high performance, modular, and extensible calibration program used and further developed for this thesis work is presented in the Appendix C.

Temperatura atmosférica e internações hospitalares por doenças cardíacas no município do Rio de Janeiro.

Os efeitos das temperaturas elevadas na saúde humana representam um problema de grande magnitude na saúde pública. A temperatura atmosférica e a poluição do ar são fatores de risco para as doenças crônicas não transmissíveis, em particular as doenças isquêmicas do coração. O estudo teve como objetivo analisar a associação entre a temperatura atmosférica e internações hospitalares por doenças cardíacas isquêmicas no município do Rio de Janeiro entre os anos de 2009 e 2013. Utilizaram-se modelos de séries temporais, via modelos aditivos generalizados, em regressão de Poisson, para testar a hipótese de associação. Como variáveis de controle de confusão foram utilizadas as concentrações de poluentes atmosféricos (ozônio e material particulado) e umidade relativa o ar; utilizou-se método de defasagem simples e distribuída para avaliar o impacto da variação de 1oC nas internações hospitalares diárias. No modelo de defasagem simples foram encontradas associações estatisticamente significativas para as internações por DIC no dia concorrente a exposição ao calor, tanto para a temperatura média quanto para a máxima. No modelo de defasagem distribuída polinomial, essa associação foi observada com 1 e 2 dias de defasagem e no efeito acumulado tanto para a temperatura média quanto para a máxima. Ao estratificarmos por faixa etária, as associações para as internações por DIC e exposição ao calor não foram estatisticamente significativas no modelo de defasagem simples para as temperaturas média e máxima. Em contrapartida, no modelo de defasagem distribuída polinomial, a correlação entre internações por DIC e exposição ao calor foi observada na faixa de 30 a 60 anos no efeito acumulado para a temperatura média; e com defasagem de 1 e 2 dias para 60 anos ou mais de idade para a temperatura média. Estes resultados sugerem associação positiva entre as internações hospitalares por doença cardíaca isquêmica e temperatura na cidade do Rio de Janeiro. Os resultados do presente estudo fornecem informações para o planejamento de investimentos de áreas urbanas climatizadas e para a preparação dos hospitais para receber emergências relacionadas aos efeitos de calor que é uma das consequências mais importantes das mudanças climáticas.

Shelf life of dried products from small indigenous fish species under various packing and storage conditions

The overall quality of five SIS products was found in good condition up to 2 months storage on the basis of organoleptic, biochemical and bacteriological characteristics and all the products was excellent in sealed packed condition up to 45 days of storage. However, quality of the products stored in open air atmospheric temperature was found excellent for first 15 days. In an average the initial moisture content was in the range of 13.5 to 15.0% with highest moisture content in puti and lowest in chapila. At the end of the 60 days the moisture content reached to the range of 18.5 to 19.0% which was more or less near the recommended limit of 16% for dried fishery products. The moisture content beyond the recommended limit as the storage period increased further and at the end of 90 days the moisture content increased to the range of 22.9 to 24% when organoleptically the product quality became very poor. The changes in the value of total volatile base nitrogen (TVB-N), peroxide value (PO), moisture and aerobic plate count (APC) of solar tunnel dried products in sealed polythene packages were investigated during 60 days of storage. There was little or no differences in TVB-N, PO and bacterial load of each species packed under various polythene density. The initial TVB-N values were in the range of 10.30 to 12.40 mg/100g of the samples. TVB-N value increased slowly up to the end of the storage period and was to in the range of 46.20 to 57.00 mg/1 00 g of sample. Initially the peroxide values (P.O.) were in the range of 6.54 to 8.40 m.eq./kg oil of the samples. During 60 days of storage, P.O. values increased slowly and at the end of the storage period these values reached to the range of 22.00 to 25.30meq./kg of sample. The initial APC was in the range 5.3xl04-7.3x104 CFU/g. The bacterial load increased slowly and at the end of the 60 days storage period reached to the range 6.6x106 - 8.6x107 CFT/g.

青杨(Populus cathayana Rehd.)雌雄植株对干旱胁迫的生理生态响应差异

随着全球气候变暖和温室效应加剧，干旱和荒漠化成为威胁人类生存和发展的主要 灾害，许多被子植物对干旱胁迫的生理、生态和生化响应已逐步得以报道，但很少有开 展干旱胁迫对雌雄异株植物的影响方面的研究。由于这类植物在长期进化过程中已经在 生长、性比、生殖格局、空间分布、资源配置和生物量分配等方面形成了明显的性别差 异，因此，干旱胁迫必将对其雌雄植株产生不同的生理生态影响。本研究以青杨为模式 植物，采用植物生态、生理及生物化学等研究方法，系统研究青杨雌雄植株在常温、增 温以及喷施外源脱落酸的条件下对干旱胁迫的响应，揭示其在生长形态、生物量分配、 光合作用、用水效率和生理生化等方面的性别间差异。主要研究结果如下： 1. 青杨雌雄植株对干旱胁迫的综合响应。 与较好水分条件相比，干旱胁迫显著降低了青杨雌雄植株的光合作用和生长发育， 影响了许多生理生化过程，并导致雌雄植株在生长发育、气体交换、用水效率、膜脂抗 氧化和抗氧化系统酶活性方面表现出显著的性别间差异。在较好水分条件下，雌雄植株 之间在株高、基径、生物量、净光合速率、蒸腾速率、用水效率以及丙二醛、脱落酸和 游离脯氨酸等生化物质含量方面均无显著差异。但在干旱胁迫下，雄株在生长发育、气 体交换、水分利用效率、膜脂过氧化保护和抗氧化系统酶活性方面均显著高于雌株，表 现出比雌株更高的株高、基径、叶面积、总叶片数、总生物量、总色素含量、类胡萝卜 素含量、净光合速率、蒸腾速率、羧化效率、光系统II最大光化学效率、内在水分利用 效率、碳同位素组分、过氧化氢酶和过氧化物酶活性等，而在CO2补偿点、比叶面积、 叶绿素a/b、丙二醛、脱落酸和超氧化物歧化酶活性等指标上显著低于雌株。与雌株相比， 雄株表现出更高的干旱胁迫适应能力，而雌株的生长发育和生理生化过程更易遭受干旱 胁迫的影响。 2. 干旱胁迫下的青杨雌雄植株对增温处理的综合响应 与环境温度相比，增温在干旱胁迫前后均显著促进了雌雄植株的生长发育、气体交 换，降低水分利用效率，影响生化物质含量，并促使青杨雌雄植株之间在干旱胁迫下表 现出显著的差异。在较好水分条件下，增温导致雌株的株高、基径、叶面积、总叶片数、 总生物量和超氧化物歧化酶活性显著高于雄株，而用水效率、丙二醛、脱落酸和游离脯 氨酸、抗坏血酸过氧化物酶和过氧化物酶活性低于雄株。在干旱胁迫下，增温将导致雄 株的株高、基径、叶面积、总生物量、净光合速率、蒸腾速率、气孔导度、总色素含量、 相对含水量、过氧化氢酶和抗坏血酸过氧化物酶活性等显著高于雌株，而光系统II 最大 光化学效率、内在水分利用效率、碳同位素组分、丙二醛、脱落酸、游离脯氨酸和超氧 化物歧化酶活性显著低于雌株。与雄株相比，水分较好条件下的增温有利于促进雌株的 生长发育，并在生理生态特征上优于雄株。而干旱胁迫下的增温则加剧了水分胁迫强度， 致使雌株的生长发育遭受比雄株更多的负面影响。 3. 干旱胁迫下的青杨雌雄植株对喷施外源脱落酸处理的综合响应 与对照相比，在干旱胁迫下喷施外源脱落酸可显著增加青杨雌雄植株的生长发育、 气体交换、降低水分利用效率，影响了生化物质含量，并导致青杨雌雄植株之间在干旱 胁迫下表现出显著的生理生态差异。在干旱胁迫下，喷施外源脱落酸致使雌株的株高、 叶面积、叶干重、细根干重、总生物量、净光合速率、蒸腾速率、气孔导度、光系统II 最大光化学效率、非光化学淬灭系数、相对含水量、总光合色素、类胡萝卜素、脱落酸、 超氧化物歧化酶和过氧化物酶活性的增加量显著高于雄株，而根重比、根冠比、细根/ 总根、比叶面积、内在水分利用效率、碳同位素组分、丙二醛、脯氨酸、过氧化氢酶和 抗坏血酸过氧化物酶活性等指标的减少量上显著低于雄株。与对照相比，干旱胁迫下的 喷施外源脱落酸则一定程度能减缓植株遭受胁迫的压力，促进植株生长和气体交换，减 少了植株体内的过剩自由基数量，并促使雌株的生长发育和光合能力显著提高，增强其 抗干旱胁迫能力。 With development of global warming and greenhouse effect, drought and desertification have been became main natural disasteres in resent years. Studies on ecophysiological responses of most angiosperm species to environmental stress have been reported, but little is known about dioecious plant responses to drought stress. Since significant differences on growth, survival, reproductive patterns, spatial distribution, as well as resource allocation between males and females of dioecious plant have been formed during evolutionary process, sexual different ecophysiological responses should be caused by drought stress. In this experiment, Populus cathayana Rehd. was used as model plant to study the sex-related responses to drought by using the ecological, physiological and biochemical methods under normal atmospheric temperature, elevated temperatures and exogenous abscisic acid (ABA) application treatment respectively, and to expose the sexual differences in growth, biomass allocation, photosynthesis, water use efficiency and some biochemical material contents in the males and females of dioecious plant. The results are follows: 1. A large set of parallel responses of males and females of P. cathayana to drought stress Compared with well-watered treatment, drought significantly decreased growth and photosynthesis of P. cathayana individuals, affected some physiological and biochemical processes, and induced males and females to exhibit obvious sexual differences in growth, gas exchange, water use efficiency, lipid peroxidation protection and antioxidant defenses enzyme system. Under well-watered treatment, there were no significant sexual differences in height growth (HG), basal diameter (BD), dry matter accumulation (DMA), net photosynthesis rate (A), transpiration (E), water use efficiency (WUE), and malondialdehyde (MDA), abscisic acid (ABA) and praline (Pro). However, under drought stress, males were found to exhibit higher HG, BD, leaf area (LA), total leaf number (TLA), DMA, total chlorophyll contents (TC), carotenoids content (Caro), A, E, carboxylation efficiency (CE), the maximum efficiency of PSII (Fv/Fm), intrinsic water use efficiency (WUE ), carbon isotope composition (δ13C), catalase (CAT), peroxidase (POD) and lower CO2 compensation point (Γ), specific leaf area (SLA), chlorophyll a/b ratio (Chla/Chlb), MDA, ABA and superoxide dismutase (SOD) than females. The results suggest that males possess greater drought resistance than do females and females suffer more negative effect on growth and development, physiological and biochemical processes than males under drought stress. 2. A large set of parallel responses of drought-stressed males and females of P. cathayana to elevated temperatures Compared with environmental temperature, elevated temperature treatment significant increased growth and gas exchange, decreased water use efficiency, changed some biochemical material contents of P. cathayana individuals, and induced males and females to exhibit obvious differences under drought stress. Under good water condition, elevated temperature treatment caused females to show significant higher HG, BD, LA, TLN, DMA, SOD activity, and great lower WUE, MDA, ABA, Pro, ascorbate peroxidase (APX) and POD than do males. On contrary, under drought condition, elevated temperature treatment induced males to exhibit higher HG, BD, LA, DMA, A, E, stomatal conductance (gs), relative water content (RWC), CAT, APX activity but lower Fv/Fm, WUE, δ13C, MDA, ABA, Pro, SOD activity than do females. The results suggest that females will benefit from elevating temperature under good water condition by possessing better ecophysiological processes than that of males, but will suffer from greater negative effects than do males when grown under drought stress with elevated temperature treatment. 3. A large set of parallel responses of drought-stressed males and females of P. cathayana to exogenous ABA application Compared with controls, exogenous ABA application under drought greatly increased growth and gas exchange, decreased water use efficiency, changed some biochemical material contents in P. cathayana individuals, and induced males and females to exhibit obvious sexual differences under drought. Under drought stress, exogenous ABA application induced females to exhibit more increases in HG, LA, leaf weight (LW), fine root weight (FRW), DMA, A, E, g, Fv/Fm, non-photochemical quenching coefficient (qN), RWC, TC, Caro, ABA, SOD, POD s activity than males, but to show lower decreases in root/weight ratio (RWR), root mass/foliage area ratio (RF), fine root/total root ratio (FT), SLA, WUE, δ13C, MDA, Pro, CAT, APX than males. The results suggest that exogenous ABA application under drought stress will eliminate negative damages caused by drought stress at a certain extent，promote the growth and gas exchange of plant and decrease the number of superfluous 1O2 in plant cells of males and females of P. cathayana. Furthermore, exogenous ABA application promoted more drought resistance in females than in males by increasing more growth and photosynthetic capacity in females under drought stress.

Shallow gas in the muddy sediments of Eckernförde Bay, Germany

The seafloor of central Eckernförde Bay is characterised by soft muddy sediments that contain free methane gas. Bubbles of free gas cause acoustic turbidity which is observed with acoustic remote sensing systems. Repeated surveys with subbottom profiler and side scan sonar revealed an annual period both of depth of the acoustic turbidity and backscatter strength. The effects are delayed by 3–4 months relative to the atmospheric temperature cycle. In addition, prominent pockmarks, partly related to gas seepage, were detected with the acoustic systems. In a direct approach gas concentrations were measured from cores using the gas chromatography technique. From different tests it is concluded that subsampling of a core should start at its base and should be completed as soon as possible, at least within 35 min after core recovery. Comparison of methane concentrations of summer and winter cores revealed no significant seasonal variation. Thus, it is concluded that the temperature and pressure influences upon solubility control the depth variability of acoustic turbidity which is observed with acoustic remote sensing systems. The delay relative to the atmospheric temperature cycle is caused by slow heat transfer through the water column. The atmospheric temperature cycle as ‘exiting function’ for variable gas solubility offers an opportunity for modelling and predicting the depth of the acoustic turbidity. In practice, however, small-scale variations of, e.g., salinity, or gas concentration profile in the sediment impose limits to predictions. In addition, oceanographic influences as mixing in the water column, variable water inflow, etc. are further complications that reduce the reliability of predictions.

中国近海和西北太平洋温跃层时空变化分析、模拟及预报

温度跃层是反映海洋温度场的重要物理特性指标，对水下通讯、潜艇活动及渔业养殖、捕捞等有重要影响。本文利用中国科学院海洋研究所“中国海洋科学数据库”在中国近海及西北太平洋（110ºE-140ºE,10ºN-40ºN）的多年历史资料（1930-2002年，510143站次），基于一种改进的温跃层判定方法，分析了该海域温跃层特征量的时空分布状况。同时利用Princeton Ocean Model(POM)，对中国近海，特别是东南沿海的水文结构进行了模拟，研究了海洋水文环境对逆温跃层的影响。最后根据历史海温观测资料，利用EOF分解统计技术，提出了一种适于我国近海及毗邻海域，基于现场有限层实测海温数据，快速重构海洋水温垂直结构的统计预报方法，以达到对现场温跃层的快速估计。 历史资料分析结果表明，受太阳辐射和风应力的影响，20°N以北研究海域，温跃层季节变化明显，夏季温跃层最浅、最强，冬季相反，温跃层厚度的相位明显滞后于其他变量，其在春季最薄、秋季最厚。12月份到翌年3月份，渤、黄及东海西岸，呈无跃层结构，西北太平洋部分海域从1月到3月份，也基本无跃层结构。在黄海西和东岸以及台湾海峡附近的浅滩海域，由于风力搅拌和潮混合作用，温跃层出现概率常年较低。夏季，海水层化现象在近海陆架海域得到了加强，陆架海域温跃层强度季节性变化幅度(0.31°C/m)明显大于深水区(约0.05°C/m)，而前者温跃层深度和厚度的季节性变化幅度小于后者。20°N以南研究海域，温跃层季节变化不明显。逆温跃层主要出现在冬、春季节（10月-翌年5月）。受长江冲淡水和台湾暖流的影响，东南沿海区域逆温跃层持续时间最长，出现概率最大，而在山东半岛北及东沿岸、朝鲜半岛西及北岸，逆温跃层消长过程似乎和黄海暖流有关。多温跃层结构常年出现于北赤道流及对马暖流区。在黑潮入侵黄、东、南海的区域，多温跃层呈现明显不同的季节变化。在黄海中部，春季多温跃层发生概率高于夏季和秋季，在东海西部，多跃层主要出现在夏季，在南海北部，冬季和春季多温跃层发生概率大于夏季和秋季。这些变化可能主要受海表面温度变化和风力驱动的表层流的影响。 利用Princeton Ocean Model(POM)，对中国东南沿海逆温跃层结构进行了模拟，模拟结果显示，长江冲淡水的季节性变化以及夏季转向与实际结果符合较好，基本再现了渤、黄、东海海域主要的环流、温盐场以及逆温跃层的分布特征和季节变化。通过数值实验发现，若无长江、黄河淡水输入，则在整个研究海域基本无逆温跃层出现，因此陆源淡水可能是河口附近逆温跃层出现的基本因素之一。长江以及暖流（黑潮和台湾暖流）流量的增加，均可在不同程度上使逆温跃层出现概率及强度、深度和厚度增加，且暖流的影响更加明显。长江对东南沿海逆温跃层的出现，特别是秋季到冬季初期，有明显的影响，使长江口海域逆温跃层位置偏向东南。暖流对于中国东南沿海的逆温跃层结构，特别是初春时期，有较大影响，使长江口海域的逆温跃层位置向东北偏移。 通过对温跃层长期变化分析得出，黄海冷水团区域，夏季温跃层强度存在3.8年左右的年际变化及18.9年左右的年代际变化，此变化可能主要表现为对当年夏季和前冬东亚地区大气气温的热力响应。东海冷涡区域，夏季温跃层强度存在3.7年的年际变化，在El Nino年为正的强度异常，其可能主要受局地气旋式大气环流变异所影响。谱分析同时表明，该海域夏季温跃层强度还存在33.2年的年代际变化，上世纪70年代中期，温跃层强度由弱转强，而此变化可能与黑潮流量的年代际变化有关。 海洋水温垂直结构的统计预报结果显示，EOF分解的前四个主分量即能够解释原空间点温度距平总方差的95%以上，以海洋表层附近观测资料求解的特征系数推断温度垂直结构分布的结果最稳定。利用东海陆架区、南海深水区和台湾周边海域三个不同区域的实测CTD样本廓线资料，对重构模型的检验结果表明，重构与实测廓线的相关程度超过95%的置信水平。三个区重构与实测温度廓线值的平均误差分别为0.69℃，0.52℃，1.18℃，平均重构廓线误差小于平均气候偏差，统计模式可以很好的估算温度廓线垂直结构。东海陆架海区温度垂直重构廓线与CTD观测廓线获得的温跃层结果对比表明，重构温跃层上界、下界深度和强度的平均绝对误差分别为1.51m、1.36m和0.17℃/m，它们的平均相对误差分别为24.7%、8.9%和22.6%，虽然温跃层深度和强度的平均相对误差较大，但其绝对误差量值较小。而在南海海区，模型重构温跃层上界、下界和强度的平均绝对预报误差分别为4.1m、27.7m和0.007℃/m，它们的平均相对误差分别为16.1%、16.8%和9.5%，重构温跃层各特征值的平均相对误差都在20%以内。虽然南海区温跃层下界深度平均绝对预报误差较大，但相对于温跃层下界深度的空间尺度变化而言（平均温跃层下界深度为168m），平均相对误差仅为16.8%。因此说模型重构的温度廓线可以达到对我国陆架海域、深水区温跃层的较好估算。 基于对历史水文温度廓线观测资料的分析及自主温跃层统计预报模型，研制了实时可利用微机简单、快捷地进行温跃层估算及查询的可视化系统，这是迄今进行大范围海域温跃层统计与实时预报研究的较系统成果。

水-岩土反应的力学与环境效应研究

The research on mechanical effects of water-rock and soil interaction on deformation and failure of rocks and soils involves three aspects of mechanics, physics and chemistry. It is the cross between geochemistry and rock mechanics and soil mechanics. To sum up, the mechanical effects of water-rock and soil interaction is related to many complex processes. Research in this respect has been being an important forward field and has broad prospects. In connection with the mechanism of the effects of the chemical action of water-rock on deformation and failure of rocks and soils, the research significance, the present state, the developments in this research domain are summarized. Author prospects the future of this research. The research of the subject should be possessed of important position in studying engineering geology and will lead directly to a new understand on geological hazard and control research. In order to investigation the macroscopic mechanics effects of chemical kinetics of water-rock interaction on the deformation and failure, calcic rock, red sandstone and grey granite reacting chemically with different aqueous solution at atmospheric temperature and atmospheric pressure are uniaxially compressed. The quantitative results concerning the changes of uniaxially compressive strength and elastic modulus under different conditions are obtained. It is found that the mechanical effects of water on rock is closely related to the chemical action of water-rock or the chemical damage in rock, and the intensity of chemical damage is direct ratio to the intensity of chemical action in water-rock system. It is also found that the hydrochemical action on rock is time-dependent through the test. The mechanism of permeation and hydrochemical action resulting in failure of loaded rock mass or propagation of fractures in rocks would be a key question in rock fracture mechanics. In this paper, the fracture mechanical effects of chemical action of water-rock and their time- and chemical environment-dependent behavior in grey granite, green granite, grey sandstone and red sandstone are analyzed by testing K_(IC) and COD of rock under different conditions. It is found that: ①the fracture mechanical effect of chemical action of water-rock is outstanding and time-dependent, and high differences exist in the influence of different aqueous solution, different rocks, different immersion ways and different velocity of cycle flow on the fracture mechanical effects in rock. ②the mechanical effects of water-rock interaction on propagation of fractures is consistent with the mechanical effects on the peak strength of rock. ③the intensity of the mechanical fracture effects increases as the intensity of chemical action of water-rock increases. ④iron and calcium ion bearing mineral or cement in rock are some key ion or chemical composition, and especially iron ion-bearing mineral resulting in chemical action of water-rock to be provided with both positive and negative mechanical effects on rock. Through the above two tests, we suggest that primary factors influencing chemical damage in rock consist of the chemical property of rock and aqueous solution, the structure or homogeneity of rocks, the flow velocity of aqueous solution passing through rock, and cause of formation or evolution of rock. The paper explores the mechanism on the mechanical effects of water-rock interaction on rock by using the theory of chemistry and rock fracture mechanics with chemical damage proposed by author, the modeling method and the energy point of view. In this paper, the concept of absorbed suction between soil grains caused by capillary response is given and expounded, and the relation and basic distinction among this absorbed suction, surface tension and capillary pressure of the soil are analyzed and established. The law of absorbed suction change and the primary factors affecting it are approached. We hold that the structure suction are changeable along with the change of the saturation state in unsaturated soils. In view of this, the concept of intrinsic structure suction and variable structure suction are given and expounded, and this paper points out: What we should study is variable structure suction when studying the effective stress. By IIIy κHH's theory of structure strength of soils, the computer method for variable structure suction is analyzed, the measure method for variable structure suction is discussed, and it reach the conclusions: ①Besides saturation state, variable structure suction is affected by grain composition and packing patter of grains. ②The internal relations are present between structure parameter N in computing structure suction and structure parameter D in computing absorbed suction. We think that some problems exit in available principle of effective stress and shear strength theory for unsaturated soil. Based on the variable structure suction and absorbed suction, the classification of saturation in soil and a principle of narrow sense effective stress are proposed for unsaturated soils. Based on generalized suction, the generalized effective stress formula and a principle of generalized effective stress are proposed for unsaturated soils. The experience parameter χ in Bishop's effective stress formula is defined, and the principal factors influencing effective stress or χ. The primary factor affecting the effective stress in unsaturated soils, and the principle classifying unsaturated soils and its mechanics methods analyzing unsaturated soils are discussed, and this paper points out: The theory on studying unsaturated soil mechanics should adopt the micromechanics method, then raise it to macromechanics and to applying. Researching the mechanical effects of chemical action of water-soil on soil is of great importance to geoenvironmental hazard control. The texture of soil and the fabric of soil mass are set forth. The tests on physical and mechanical property are performed to investigate the mechanism of the positive and negative mechanical effects of different chemical property of aqueous solution. The test results make clear that the plastic limit, liquid limit and plasticity index are changed, and there exists both positive and negative effects on specimens in this test. Based on analyzing the mechanism of the mechanical effects of water-soil interaction on soil, author thinks that hydrochemical actions being provided with mechanical effects on soil comprise three kinds of dissolution, sedimentation or crystallization. The significance of these tests lie in which it is recognized for us that we may improve, adjust and control the quality of soils, and may achieve the goal geological hazard control and prevention.The present and the significance of the research on environmental effects of water-rock and soil interaction. Various living example on geoenvironmental hazard in this field are enumerated. Following above thinking, we have approached such ideals that: ①changing the intensity and distribution of source and sink in groundwater flow system can be used to control the water-rock and soil interaction. ②the chemical action of water-rock and soil can be used to ameliorate the physical and mechanical property of rocks and soils. Lastly, the research thinking and the research methods on mechanical effects and environmental effects of water-rock and soil interaction are put forward and detailed.

Applications of finite element computer modelling and thermal infrared remote sensing to the study of geothermal anomalies

Buried heat sources can be investigated by examining thermal infrared images and comparing these with the results of theoretical models which predict the thermal anomaly a given heat source may generate. Key factors influencing surface temperature include the geometry and temperature of the heat source, the surface meteorological environment, and the thermal conductivity and anisotropy of the rock. In general, a geothermal heat flux of greater than 2% of solar insolation is required to produce a detectable thermal anomaly in a thermal infrared image. A heat source of, for example, 2-300K greater than the average surface temperature must be a t depth shallower than 50m for the detection of the anomaly in a thermal infrared image, for typical terrestrial conditions. Atmospheric factors are of critical importance. While the mean atmospheric temperature has little significance, the convection is a dominant factor, and can act to swamp the thermal signature entirely. Given a steady state heat source that produces a detectable thermal anomaly, it is possible to loosely constrain the physical properties of the heat source and surrounding rock, using the surface thermal anomaly as a basis. The success of this technique is highly dependent on the degree to which the physical properties of the host rock are known. Important parameters include the surface thermal properties and thermal conductivity of the rock. Modelling of transient thermal situations was carried out, to assess the effect of time dependant thermal fluxes. One-dimensional finite element models can be readily and accurately applied to the investigation of diurnal heat flow, as with thermal inertia models. Diurnal thermal models of environments on Earth, the Moon and Mars were carried out using finite elements and found to be consistent with published measurements. The heat flow from an injection of hot lava into a near surface lava tube was considered. While this approach was useful for study, and long term monitoring in inhospitable areas, it was found to have little hazard warning utility, as the time taken for the thermal energy to propagate to the surface in dry rock (several months) in very long. The resolution of the thermal infrared imaging system is an important factor. Presently available satellite based systems such as Landsat (resolution of 120m) are inadequate for detailed study of geothermal anomalies. Airborne systems, such as TIMS (variable resolution of 3-6m) are much more useful for discriminating small buried heat sources. Planned improvements in the resolution of satellite based systems will broaden the potential for application of the techniques developed in this thesis. It is important to note, however, that adequate spatial resolution is a necessary but not sufficient condition for successful application of these techniques.

UV index measurement and model agreement: uncertainties and limitations

En les últimes dècades, l'increment dels nivells de radiació solar ultraviolada (UVR) que arriba a la Terra (principalment degut a la disminució d'ozó estratosfèric) juntament amb l'augment detectat en malalties relacionades amb l'exposició a la UVR, ha portat a un gran volum d'investigacions sobre la radiació solar en aquesta banda i els seus efectes en els humans. L'índex ultraviolat (UVI), que ha estat adoptat internacionalment, va ser definit amb el propòsit d'informar al públic general sobre els riscos d'exposar el cos nu a la UVR i per tal d'enviar missatges preventius. L'UVI es va definir inicialment com el valor màxim diari. No obstant, el seu ús actual s'ha ampliat i té sentit referir-se a un valor instantani o a una evolució diària del valor d'UVI mesurat, modelitzat o predit. El valor concret d'UVI està afectat per la geometria Sol-Terra, els núvols, l'ozó, els aerosols, l'altitud i l'albedo superficial. Les mesures d'UVI d'alta qualitat són essencials com a referència i per estudiar tendències a llarg termini; es necessiten també tècniques acurades de modelització per tal d'entendre els factors que afecten la UVR, per predir l'UVI i com a control de qualitat de les mesures. És d'esperar que les mesures més acurades d'UVI s'obtinguin amb espectroradiòmetres. No obstant, com que els costs d'aquests dispositius són elevats, és més habitual trobar dades d'UVI de radiòmetres eritemàtics (de fet, la majoria de les xarxes d'UVI estan equipades amb aquest tipus de sensors). Els millors resultats en modelització s'obtenen amb models de transferència radiativa de dispersió múltiple quan es coneix bé la informació d'entrada. No obstant, habitualment no es coneix informació d'entrada, com per exemple les propietats òptiques dels aerosols, la qual cosa pot portar a importants incerteses en la modelització. Sovint, s'utilitzen models més simples per aplicacions com ara la predicció d'UVI o l'elaboració de mapes d'UVI, ja que aquests són més ràpids i requereixen menys paràmetres d'entrada. Tenint en compte aquest marc de treball, l'objectiu general d'aquest estudi és analitzar l'acord al qual es pot arribar entre la mesura i la modelització d'UVI per condicions de cel sense núvols. D'aquesta manera, en aquest estudi es presenten comparacions model-mesura per diferents tècniques de modelització, diferents opcions d'entrada i per mesures d'UVI tant de radiòmetres eritemàtics com d'espectroradiòmeters. Com a conclusió general, es pot afirmar que la comparació model-mesura és molt útil per detectar limitacions i estimar incerteses tant en les modelitzacions com en les mesures. Pel que fa a la modelització, les principals limitacions que s'han trobat és la falta de coneixement de la informació d'aerosols considerada com a entrada dels models. També, s'han trobat importants diferències entre l'ozó mesurat des de satèl·lit i des de la superfície terrestre, la qual cosa pot portar a diferències importants en l'UVI modelitzat. PTUV, una nova i simple parametrització pel càlcul ràpid d'UVI per condicions de cel serens, ha estat desenvolupada en base a càlculs de transferència radiativa. La parametrització mostra una bona execució tant respecte el model base com en comparació amb diverses mesures d'UVI. PTUV ha demostrat la seva utilitat per aplicacions particulars com ara l'estudi de l'evolució anual de l'UVI per un cert lloc (Girona) i la composició de mapes d'alta resolució de valors d'UVI típics per un territori concret (Catalunya). En relació a les mesures, es constata que és molt important saber la resposta espectral dels radiòmetres eritemàtics per tal d'evitar grans incerteses a la mesura d'UVI. Aquest instruments, si estan ben caracteritzats, mostren una bona comparació amb els espectroradiòmetres d'alta qualitat en la mesura d'UVI. Les qüestions més importants respecte les mesures són la calibració i estabilitat a llarg termini. També, s'ha observat un efecte de temperatura en el PTFE, un material utilitzat en els difusors en alguns instruments, cosa que potencialment podria tenir implicacions importants en el camp experimental. Finalment, i pel que fa a les comparacions model-mesura, el millor acord s'ha trobat quan es consideren mesures d'UVI d'espectroradiòmetres d'alta qualitat i s'usen models de transferència radiativa que consideren les millors dades disponibles pel que fa als paràmetres òptics d'ozó i aerosols i els seus canvis en el temps. D'aquesta manera, l'acord pot ser tan alt dins un 0.1º% en UVI, i típicament entre menys d'un 3%. Aquest acord es veu altament deteriorat si s'ignora la informació d'aerosols i depèn de manera important del valor d'albedo de dispersió simple dels aerosols. Altres dades d'entrada del model, com ara l'albedo superficial i els perfils d'ozó i temperatura introdueixen una incertesa menor en els resultats de modelització.

An observing system simulation experiment for climate monitoring with GNSS radio occulation data: setup and testbed study

The long-term stability, high accuracy, all-weather capability, high vertical resolution, and global coverage of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) suggests it as a promising tool for global monitoring of atmospheric temperature change. With the aim to investigate and quantify how well a GNSS RO observing system is able to detect climate trends, we are currently performing an (climate) observing system simulation experiment over the 25-year period 2001 to 2025, which involves quasi-realistic modeling of the neutral atmosphere and the ionosphere. We carried out two climate simulations with the general circulation model MAECHAM5 (Middle Atmosphere European Centre/Hamburg Model Version 5) of the MPI-M Hamburg, covering the period 2001–2025: One control run with natural variability only and one run also including anthropogenic forcings due to greenhouse gases, sulfate aerosols, and tropospheric ozone. On the basis of this, we perform quasi-realistic simulations of RO observables for a small GNSS receiver constellation (six satellites), state-of-the-art data processing for atmospheric profiles retrieval, and a statistical analysis of temperature trends in both the “observed” climatology and the “true” climatology. Here we describe the setup of the experiment and results from a test bed study conducted to obtain a basic set of realistic estimates of observational errors (instrument- and retrieval processing-related errors) and sampling errors (due to spatial-temporal undersampling). The test bed results, obtained for a typical summer season and compared to the climatic 2001–2025 trends from the MAECHAM5 simulation including anthropogenic forcing, were found encouraging for performing the full 25-year experiment. They indicated that observational and sampling errors (both contributing about 0.2 K) are consistent with recent estimates of these errors from real RO data and that they should be sufficiently small for monitoring expected temperature trends in the global atmosphere over the next 10 to 20 years in most regions of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). Inspection of the MAECHAM5 trends in different RO-accessible atmospheric parameters (microwave refractivity and pressure/geopotential height in addition to temperature) indicates complementary climate change sensitivity in different regions of the UTLS so that optimized climate monitoring shall combine information from all climatic key variables retrievable from GNSS RO data.

Statistical downscaling of river flows

An extensive statistical ‘downscaling’ study is done to relate large-scale climate information from a general circulation model (GCM) to local-scale river flows in SW France for 51 gauging stations ranging from nival (snow-dominated) to pluvial (rainfall-dominated) river-systems. This study helps to select the appropriate statistical method at a given spatial and temporal scale to downscale hydrology for future climate change impact assessment of hydrological resources. The four proposed statistical downscaling models use large-scale predictors (derived from climate model outputs or reanalysis data) that characterize precipitation and evaporation processes in the hydrological cycle to estimate summary flow statistics. The four statistical models used are generalized linear (GLM) and additive (GAM) models, aggregated boosted trees (ABT) and multi-layer perceptron neural networks (ANN). These four models were each applied at two different spatial scales, namely at that of a single flow-gauging station (local downscaling) and that of a group of flow-gauging stations having the same hydrological behaviour (regional downscaling). For each statistical model and each spatial resolution, three temporal resolutions were considered, namely the daily mean flows, the summary statistics of fortnightly flows and a daily ‘integrated approach’. The results show that flow sensitivity to atmospheric factors is significantly different between nival and pluvial hydrological systems which are mainly influenced, respectively, by shortwave solar radiations and atmospheric temperature. The non-linear models (i.e. GAM, ABT and ANN) performed better than the linear GLM when simulating fortnightly flow percentiles. The aggregated boosted trees method showed higher and less variable R2 values to downscale the hydrological variability in both nival and pluvial regimes. Based on GCM cnrm-cm3 and scenarios A2 and A1B, future relative changes of fortnightly median flows were projected based on the regional downscaling approach. The results suggest a global decrease of flow in both pluvial and nival regimes, especially in spring, summer and autumn, whatever the considered scenario. The discussion considers the performance of each statistical method for downscaling flow at different spatial and temporal scales as well as the relationship between atmospheric processes and flow variability.

Radiative forcing and global warming potentials of 11 halogenated compounds

Radiative forcing values have been calculated for 11 halogenated compounds which are in current use or which have been suggested as possible replacements for the chlorofluorocarbons. Absorption cross-sections measured over a range of atmospheric temperature and pressure conditions as part of a multi-laboratory programme have been used together with a narrow band radiative transfer model. We provide a “best estimate” radiative forcing taking into account the likely vertical profile of the gas in each case. The Global Warming Potential over a variety of time horizons has also been calculated where the lifetime is available. We present the first such information for 1,2-dichloroethane. For chloroform our radiative forcing is 5 times higher than the value used in previous assessments, possibly because these ignored the effect of absorption outside the 800–1200 cm−1 “window”. For several of the other compounds considered here, our forcing is between 10 and 30% lower than previous assessments. The perfluorocarbons have been found to have large global warming potentials, many times that of CFC-11, due to both strong absorption and long lifetimes. The importance of absorption features at wavenumbers below 800 cm−1 and the effect of temperature variations in absorption cross-section on the radiative forcing are also investigated.

Ice-stream initiation, duration and thinning on James Ross Island, northern Antarctic Peninsula

Predicting the future response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change requires an understanding of the ice streams that dominate its dynamics. Here we use cosmogenic isotope exposure-age dating (26Al, 10Be and 36Cl) of erratic boulders on ice-free land on James Ross Island, north-eastern Antarctic Peninsula, to define the evolution of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ice in the adjacent Prince Gustav Channel. These data include ice-sheet extent, thickness and dynamical behaviour. Prior to ∼18 ka, the LGM Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet extended to the continental shelf-edge and transported erratic boulders onto high-elevation mesas on James Ross Island. After ∼18 ka there was a period of rapid ice-sheet surface-lowering, coincident with the initiation of the Prince Gustav Ice Stream. This timing coincided with rapid increases in atmospheric temperature and eustatic sea-level rise around the Antarctic Peninsula. Collectively, these data provide evidence for a transition from a thick, cold-based LGM Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet to a thinner, partially warm-based ice sheet during deglaciation.

Sea level extremes at the coasts of China

Hourly sea level records from 1954 to 2012 at 20 tide gauges at and adjacent to the Chinese coasts are used to analyze extremes in sea level and in tidal residual. Tides and tropical cyclones determine the spatial distribution of sea level maxima. Tidal residual maxima are predominantly determined by tropical cyclones. The 50 year return level is found to be sensitive to the number of extreme events used in the estimation. This is caused by the small number of tropical cyclone events happening each year which lead to other local storm events included thus significantly affecting the estimates. Significant increase in sea level extremes is found with trends in the range between 2.0 and 14.1 mm yr−1. The trends are primarily driven by changes in median sea level but also linked with increases in tidal amplitudes at three stations. Tropical cyclones cause significant interannual variations in the extremes. The interannual variability in the sea level extremes is also influenced by the changes in median sea level at the north and by the 18.6 year nodal cycle at the South China Sea. Neither of PDO and ENSO is found to be an indicator of changes in the size of extremes, but ENSO appears to regulate the number of tropical cyclones that reach the Chinese coasts. Global mean atmospheric temperature appears to be a good descriptor of the interannual variability of tidal residual extremes induced by tropical cyclones but the trend in global temperature is inconsistent with the lack of trend in the residuals.