Intraseasonal response of mixed layer temperature and salinity in the Bay of Bengal to heat and freshwater flux

Buoy and satellite data show pronounced subseasonal oscillations of sea surface temperature (SST) in the summertime Bay of Bengal. The SST oscillations are forced mainly by surface heat flux associated with the active break cycle of the south Asian summer monsoon. The input of freshwater (FW) from summer rain and rivers to the bay is large, but not much is known about subseasonal salinity variability. We use 2002-2007 observations from three Argo floats with 5 day repeat cycle to study the subseasonal response of temperature and salinity to surface heat and freshwater flux in the central Bay of Bengal. About 95% of Argo profiles show a shallow halocline, with substantial variability of mixed layer salinity. Estimates of surface heat and freshwater flux are based on daily satellite data sampled along the float trajectory. We find that intraseasonal variability of mixed layer temperature is mainly a response to net surface heat flux minus penetrative radiation during the summer monsoon season. In winter and spring, however, temperature variability appears to be mainly due to lateral advection rather than local heat flux. Variability of mixed layer freshwater content is generally independent of local surface flux (precipitation minus evaporation) in all seasons. There are occasions when intense monsoon rainfall leads to local freshening, but these are rare. Large fluctuations in FW appear to be due to advection, suggesting that freshwater from rivers and rain moves in eddies or filaments.

Dung as a potential medium for inter-sexual chemical signaling in Asian elephants (Elephas maximus)

Chemical signaling is a prominent mode of male-female communication among elephants, especially during their sexually active periods. Studies on the Asian elephant in zoos have shown the significance of a urinary pheromone (Z7-12:Ac) in conveying the reproductive status of a female toward the opposite sex. We investigated the additional possibility of an inter-sexual chemical signal being conveyed through dung. Sixteen semi-captive adult male elephants were presented with dung samples of three female elephants in different reproductive phases. Each male was tested in 3 separate trials, within an interval of 1-3 days. The trials followed a double-blind pattern as the male and female elephants used in the trials were strangers, and the observer was not aware of the reproductive status of females during the period of bioassays. Males responded preferentially (P < 0.005), in terms of higher frequency of sniff, check and place behavior toward the dung of females close to pre-ovulatory period (follicular-phase) as compared to those in post-ovulatory period (luteal-phase). The response toward the follicular phase samples declined over repeated trials though was still significantly higher than the corresponding response toward the non-ovulatory phase in each of the trials performed. This is the first study to show that male Asian elephants were able to distinguish the reproductive phase of the female by possibly detecting a pre-ovulatory pheromone released in dung. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimates of site response based on spectral ratio between horizontal and vertical components of ambient vibrations in the source zone of 2001 Bhuj earthquake

We investigated the site response characteristics of Kachchh rift basin over the meizoseismal area of the 2001, Mw 7.6, Bhuj (NW India) earthquake using the spectral ratio of the horizontal and vertical components of ambient vibrations. Using the available knowledge on the regional geology of Kachchh and well documented ground responses from the earthquake, we evaluated the H/V curves pattern across sediment filled valleys and uplifted areas generally characterized by weathered sandstones. Although our HIV curves showed a largely fuzzy nature, we found that the hierarchical clustering method was useful for comparing large numbers of response curves and identifying the areas with similar responses. Broad and plateau shaped peaks of a cluster of curves within the valley region suggests the possibility of basin effects within valley. Fundamental resonance frequencies (f(0)) are found in the narrow range of 0.1-2.3 Hz and their spatial distribution demarcated the uplifted regions from the valleys. In contrary, low HIV peak amplitudes (A(0) = 2-4) were observed on the uplifted areas and varying values (2-9) were found within valleys. Compared to the amplification factors, the liquefaction indices (kg) were able to effectively indicate the areas which experienced severe liquefaction. The amplification ranges obtained in the current study were found to be comparable to those obtained from earthquake data for a limited number of seismic stations located on uplifted areas; however the values on the valley region may not reflect their true amplification potential due to basin effects. Our study highlights the practical usefulness as well as limitations of the HIV method to study complex geological settings as Kachchh. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interplay of male traits, male mating strategies and female mate choice in the Asian elephant, Elephas maximus

Elaborate male traits with no apparent adaptive value may have evolved through female mate discrimination. Tusks are an elaborate male-only trait in the Asian elephant that could potentially influence female mate choice. We examined the effect of male body size, tusk possession and musth status on female mate choice in an Asian elephant population. Large/musth males received positive responses from oestrous females towards courtship significantly more often than did small/non-musth males. Young, tusked non-musth males attempted courtship significantly more often than their tuskless peers, and received more positive responses (though statistically insignificant) than did tuskless males. A positive response did not necessarily translate into mating because of mate-guarding by a dominant male. Female elephants appear to choose mates based primarily on traits such as musth that signal direct fertility benefits through increased sperm received than for traits such as tusks that may signal only indirect fitness benefits.

Dynamics of the East Asian Summer Monsoon in Present and Future Climates

This thesis aims at enhancing our fundamental understanding of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and mechanisms implicated in its climatology in present-day and warmer climates. We focus on the most prominent feature of the EASM, i.e., the so-called Meiyu-Baiu (MB), which is characterized by a well-defined, southwest to northeast elongated quasi-stationary rainfall band, spanning from eastern China to Japan and into the northwestern Pacific Ocean in June and July.

We begin with an observational study of the energetics of the MB front in present-day climate. Analyses of the moist static energy (MSE) budget of the MB front indicate that horizontal advection of moist enthalpy, primarily of dry enthalpy, sustains the front in a region of otherwise negative net energy input into the atmospheric column. A decomposition of the horizontal dry enthalpy advection into mean, transient, and stationary eddy fluxes identifies the longitudinal thermal gradient due to zonal asymmetries and the meridional stationary eddy velocity as the most influential factors determining the pattern of horizontal moist enthalpy advection. Numerical simulations in which the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is either retained or removed show that the TP influences the stationary enthalpy flux, and hence the MB front, primarily by changing the meridional stationary eddy velocity, with reinforced southerly wind on the northwestern flank of the north Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) over the MB region and northerly wind to its north. Changes in the longitudinal thermal gradient are mainly confined to the near downstream of the TP, with the resulting changes in zonal warm air advection having a lesser impact on the rainfall in the extended MB region.

Similar mechanisms are shown to be implicated in present climate simulations in the Couple Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. We find that the spatial distribution of the EASM precipitation simulated by different models is highly correlated with the meridional stationary eddy velocity. The correlation becomes more robust when energy fluxes into the atmospheric column are considered, consistent with the observational analyses. The spread in the area-averaged rainfall amount can be partially explained by the spread in the simulated globally-averaged precipitation, with the rest primarily due to the lower-level meridional wind convergence. Clear relationships between precipitation and zonal and meridional eddy velocities are observed.

Finally, the response of the EASM to greenhouse gas forcing is investigated at different time scales in CMIP5 model simulations. The reduction of radiative cooling and the increase in continental surface temperature occur much more rapidly than changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Without changes in SSTs, the rainfall in the monsoon region decreases (increases) over ocean (land) in most models. On longer time scales, as SSTs increase, rainfall changes are opposite. The total response to atmospheric CO^2 forcing and subsequent SST warming is a large (modest) increase in rainfall over ocean (land) in the EASM region. Dynamic changes, in spite of significant contributions from the thermodynamic component, play an important role in setting up the spatial pattern of precipitation changes. Rainfall anomalies over East China are a direct consequence of local land-sea contrast, while changes in the larger-scale oceanic rainfall band are closely associated with the displacement of the larger-scale NPSH. Numerical simulations show that topography and SST patterns play an important role in rainfall changes in the EASM region.

Records of the East Asian winter monsoon from the mud area on the inner shelf of the East China Sea since the mid-Holocene

AMS(14)C dating and analysis of grain size, major elements and clay minerals were applied to Core MZ01 from the mud area on the inner shelf of the East China Sea. Based on the environmentally sensitive grain size, clay mineral and major element assemblages, the history of the East Asia winter monsoon since the mid-Holocene could be reconstructed. These three proxies, mean grain size (>9.71 mu m), chemical index of alteration (CIA) and ratio of smectite to kaolinite in particular, show similar fluctuation patterns. Furthermore, 10 extreme values corresponding to the contemporary cooling events could be recognized since the mid-Holocene; these extreme values are likely to have been caused by the strengthening of the East Asia winter monsoon. The cooling events correlated well with the results of the delta O-18 curves of the Dunde ice core and GISP2, which therefore revealed a regional response to global climate change. Four stages of the East Asia winter monsoon were identified, i.e. 8300-6300 a BP, strong and unstable; 6300-3800 a BP, strong but stable; 3800-1400 a BP, weak and unstable; after 1400 a BP, weak but stable.

Development of the East Asian summer monsoon: Evidence from the sediment record in the South China Sea since 8.5 Ma

128 samples from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1143 in the southern South China Sea were analyzed for grain size, clay minerals, biogenic opal content and quartz in order to reconstruct changes in East Asian monsoon climate since 8.5 Ma. An abrupt change of terrigenous mass accumulation rate (MAR), clay mineral assemblage, median grain size and biogenic opal MAR about 5.2 Ma suggests that between 8.5-5.2 Ma the source of terrigenous sediment was mainly in the region of surface uplift and basaltic volcanism in southern Vietnam. A simple model of East Asian summer monsoon evolution was based on the clay/feldspar ratio, kaolinite/chlorite ratio and biogenic opal MAR. The summer monsoon has two periods of maximum strength at 8.5-7.6 Ma and 7.1-6.2 Ma. Subsequently, there was a relatively stable period at 6.2-3.5 Ma, continued intensification about 3.5-2.5 Ma, and gradually weakening after 2.5 Ma. Since I Ma the monsoon has intensified, with remarkable high-frequency and amplitude variability. Simultaneous increase in sedimentation rates at ODP Sites 1143, 1146 and 1148, as well as in MAR of terrigenous materials, quartz, feldspar and clay minerals at ODP Site 1143 at 3.5-2.5 Ma, may be the erosional response to both global climatic deterioration and the strengthening of the East Asian summer monsoon after about 3-4 Ma. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

From respect for nature to agency as realisation in response to the ecological emergency

'The ecological emergency’ describes both our emergence into, and the way we relate within, a set of globally urgent circumstances, brought about through anthropogenic impact. I identify two phases to this emergency. Firstly, there is the anthropogenic impact itself, interpreted through various conceptual models. Secondly, however, is the increasingly entrenched commitment to divergent conceptual positions, that leads to a growing disparateness in attitudes, and a concurrent difficulty with finding any grounds for convergence in response. I begin by reviewing the environmental ethics literature in order to clarify which components of the implicit narratives and beliefs of different positions create the foundations for such disparateness of views. I identify the conceptual frameworks through which moral agency and human responsibility are viewed, and that justify an ethical response to the ecological emergency. In particular, I focus on Paul Taylor's thesis of 'respect for nature' as a framework for revising both the idea that we are ‘moral’ and the idea that we are ‘agents’ in this unique way, and I open to question the idea that any response to the ecological emergency need be couched in ethical terms. This revision leads me to formulate an alternative conceptual model that makes use of Timothy Morton’s idea of enmeshment. I propose that we dramatically revise our idea of moral agency using the idea of enmeshment as a starting point. I develop an alternative framework that locates our capacity for responsibility within our capacity for realisation, both in the sense of understanding, and of making real, sets of conditions within our enmeshment. I draw parallels between this idea of ‘realisation as agency’ and the work of Dōgen and other non-dualists. I then propose a revised understanding of ‘the good’ of systems from a biophysical perspective, and compare this with certain features of Asian traditions of thought. I consider the practical implications of these revisions, and I conclude that the act of paying close attention, or realising, contains our agency, as does the attitude, or manner, with which we focus. This gives us the basis for a convergent response to the ecological emergency: the way of our engagement that is the key to responding to the ecological emergency

Vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to changes in harmful algal bloom distribution in response to climate change: projections based on model analysis

Harmful algal blooms (HABs), those proliferations of algae that can cause fish kills, contaminate seafood with toxins, form unsightly scums, or detrimentally alter ecosystem function have been increasing in frequency, magnitude, and duration worldwide. Here, using a global modeling approach, we show, for three regions of the globe, the potential effects of nutrient loading and climate change for two HAB genera, pelagic Prorocentrum and Karenia, each with differing physiological characteristics for growth. The projections (end of century, 2090-2100) are based on climate change resulting from the A1B scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Climate Model (IPCC, IPSL-CM4), applied in a coupled oceanographic-biogeochemical model, combined with a suite of assumed physiological 'rules' for genera-specific bloom development. Based on these models, an expansion in area and/or number of months annually conducive to development of these HABs along the NW European Shelf-Baltic Sea system and NE Asia was projected for both HAB genera, but no expansion (Prorocentrum spp.), or actual contraction in area and months conducive for blooms (Karenia spp.), was projected in the SE Asian domain. The implications of these projections, especially for Northern Europe, are shifts in vulnerability of coastal systems to HAB events, increased regional HAB impacts to aquaculture, increased risks to human health and ecosystems, and economic consequences of these events due to losses to fisheries and ecosystem services.

Clinical and testing protocols for the analysis of epidermal growth factor receptor mutations in East Asian patients with non-small cell lung cancer:a combined clinical-molecular pathological approach

Several randomized phase III studies in advanced stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) confirmed the superior response rate and progression-free survival of using epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) tyrosine kinase inhibitor as first-line therapy compared with chemotherapy in patients with activating EGFR mutations. Despite the need for EGFR mutation tests to guide first-line therapy in East Asian NSCLC, there are no current standard clinical and testing protocols.

The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. I: Mean response and interannual variability

The impact of doubled CO2 concentration on the Asian summer monsoon is studied using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Both the mean seasonal precipitation and interannual monsoon variability are found to increase in the future climate scenario presented. Systematic biases in current climate simulations of the coupled system prevent accurate representation of the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection, of prime importance for seasonal prediction and for determining monsoon interannual variability. By applying seasonally varying heat flux adjustments to the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean surface in the future climate simulation, some assessment can be made of the impact of systematic model biases on future climate predictions. In simulations where the flux adjustments are implemented, the response to climate change is magnified, with the suggestion that systematic biases may be masking the true impact of increased greenhouse gas forcing. The teleconnection between ENSO and the Asian summer monsoon remains robust in the future climate, although the Indo-Pacific takes on more of a biennial character for long periods of the flux-adjusted simulation. Assessing the teleconnection across interdecadal timescales shows wide variations in its amplitude, despite the absence of external forcing. This suggests that recent changes in the observed record cannot be distinguished from internal variations and as such are not necessarily related to climate change.

How does a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation lead to an intensification of the ENSO-south Asian summer monsoon interaction?

This study investigates the change of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-South Asian summer monsoon interaction in response to a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) by applying an additional freshwater flux into the North Atlantic. The simulated results indicate that the weakened THC leads to intensified ENSO-South Asian summer monsoon relationship and enhanced South Asian summer monsoon interannual variability. Furthermore, it is suggested that this intensification of the ENSO-monsoon relationship is likely due to the enhanced ENSO variability induced by the weakened THC. This study indicates that the low frequency fluctuation of Atlantic SSTs might have an influence on South Asian summer monsoon interannual variability and the ENSO-monsoon interaction, and suggests a nonlocal mechanism for the observed decadal-multidecadal modulation of ENSO-monsoon relationship.

The effect of Arabian Sea optical properties on SST biases and the South Asian summer monsoon in a coupled GCM

This study examines the effect of seasonally varying chlorophyll on the climate of the Arabian Sea and South Asian monsoon. The effect of such seasonality on the radiative properties of the upper ocean is often a missing process in coupled general circulation models and its large amplitude in the region makes it a pertinent choice for study to determine any impact on systematic biases in the mean and seasonality of the Arabian Sea. In this study we examine the effects of incorporating a seasonal cycle in chlorophyll due to phytoplankton blooms in the UK Met Office coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM HadCM3. This is achieved by performing experiments in which the optical properties of water in the Arabian Sea - a key signal of the semi-annual cycle of phytoplankton blooms in the region - are calculated from a chlorophyll climatology derived from Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) data. The SeaWiFS chlorophyll is prescribed in annual mean and seasonally-varying experiments. In response to the chlorophyll bloom in late spring, biases in mixed layer depth are reduced by up to 50% and the surface is warmed, leading to increases in monsoon rainfall during the onset period. However when the monsoons are fully established in boreal winter and summer and there are strong surface winds and a deep mixed layer, biases in the mixed layer depth are reduced but the surface undergoes cooling. The seasonality of the response of SST to chlorophyll is found to depend on the relative depth of the mixed layer to that of the anomalous penetration depth of solar fluxes. Thus the inclusion of the effects of chlorophyll on radiative properties of the upper ocean acts to reduce biases in mixed layer depth and increase seasonality in SST.

Will the South Asian monsoon overturning circulation stabilize any further?

Understanding the response of the South Asian monsoon (SAM) system to global climate change is an interesting scientific problem that has enormous implications from the societal viewpoint. While the CMIP3 projections of future changes in monsoon precipitation used in the IPCC AR4 show major uncertainties, there is a growing recognition that the rapid increase of moisture in a warming climate can potentially enhance the stability of the large-scale tropical circulations. In this work, the authors have examined the stability of the SAM circulation based on diagnostic analysis of climate datasets over the past half century; and addressed the issue of likely future changes in the SAM in response to global warming using simulations from an ultrahigh resolution (20 km) global climate model. Additional sensitivity experiments using a simplified atmospheric model have been presented to supplement the overall findings. The results here suggest that the intensity of the boreal summer monsoon overturning circulation and the associated southwesterly monsoon flow have significantly weakened during the past 50-years. The weakening trend of the monsoon circulation is further corroborated by a significant decrease in the frequency of moderate-to-heavy monsoon rainfall days and upward vertical velocities particularly over the narrow mountain ranges of the Western Ghats. Based on simulations from the 20-km ultra high-resolution model, it is argued that a stabilization (weakening) of the summer monsoon Hadley-type circulation in response to global warming can potentially lead to a weakened large-scale monsoon flow thereby resulting in weaker vertical velocities and reduced orographic precipitation over the narrow Western Ghat mountains by the end of the twenty-first century. Supplementary experiments using a simplified atmospheric model indicate a high sensitivity of the large-scale monsoon circulation to atmospheric stability in comparison with the effects of condensational heating.