The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. II: Changing ENSO regimes

Integrations of a fully-coupled climate model with and without flux adjustments in the equatorial oceans are performed under 2×CO2 conditions to explore in more detail the impact of increased greenhouse gas forcing on the monsoon-ENSO system. When flux adjustments are used to correct some systematic model biases, ENSO behaviour in the modelled future climate features distinct irregular and periodic (biennial) regimes. Comparison with the observed record yields some consistency with ENSO modes primarily based on air-sea interaction and those dependent on basinwide ocean wave dynamics. Simple theory is also used to draw analogies between the regimes and irregular (stochastically forced) and self-excited oscillations respectively. Periodic behaviour is also found in the Asian-Australian monsoon system, part of an overall biennial tendency of the model under these conditions related to strong monsoon forcing and increased coupling between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) thus serves as a useful descriptor for the coupled monsoon-ENSO system in this case. The presence of obvious regime changes in the monsoon-ENSO system on interdecadal timescales, when using flux adjustments, suggests there may be greater uncertainty in projections of future climate, although further modelling studies are required to confirm the realism and cause of such changes.

Paleoclimate investiations on sediment core MD01-2378

We present a high-resolution (not, vert, similar 60-110 yr) multi-proxy record spanning Marine Isotope Stage 3 from IMAGES Core MD01-2378 (13°04.95'S and 121°47.27'E, 1783 m water depth), located in the Timor Sea, off NW Australia. Today, this area is influenced by the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which drives monsoonal winds during austral summer and by the main outflow of the Indonesian Throughflow, which represents a key component of the global thermohaline circulation system. Thus, this core is ideally situated to monitor the linkages between tropical and high latitude climate variability. Benthic d18O data (Planulina wuellerstorfi) clearly reflect Antarctic warm events (A1-A4) as recorded by the EPICA Byrd and Dronning Maud Land ice cores. This southern high latitude signal is transferred by deep and intermediate water masses flowing northward from the Southern Ocean into the Indian Ocean. Planktonic d18O shows closer affinity to northern high latitudes planktonic and ice core records, although only the longer-lasting Dansgaard-Oeschger warm events, 8, 12, 14, and 16-17 are clearly expressed in our record. This northern high latitude signal in the surface water is probably transmitted through atmospheric teleconnections and coupling of the Asian-Australian monsoon systems. Benthic foraminiferal census counts suggest a coupling of Antarctic cooling with carbon flux patterns in the Timor Sea. We relate increasing abundances of carbon-flux sensitive species at 38-45 ka to the northeastward migration of the West Australian Current frontal area. This water mass reorganization is also supported by concurrent decreases in Mg/Ca and planktonic d18O values (Globigerinoides ruber white).

Aboriginal self-determination in Australia - The effects of minority-majority frames and target universalism on majority collective guilt and compensation attitudes

In the context of Aboriginal-Anglo Australian relations, we tested the effect of framing (multiculturalism versus separatism) and majority group members' social values (universalism) on the persuasiveness of Aboriginal group rhetoric, majority collective guilt, attitudes toward compensation, and reparations for Aboriginals. As predicted, Anglo Australians who are low on universalism report more collective guilt when presented with a multiculturalist than a separatist Aboriginal frame, whereas those high on universalism report high levels of guilt independent of frame. The same pattern was predicted and found for the persuasiveness of the rhetoric and attitudes toward compensation. Our data suggest that (a) for individuals low in universalism, framing produces attitudes consonant with compensation because it produces collective guilt and (b) the reason that universalists are more in favor of compensation and reparation is because of high collective guilt. We discuss the strategic use of language to create power through the manipulation of collective guilt in political contexts.

The Asian fish tapeworm, Bothriocephalus acheilognathi, in Australian freshwater fishes

Bothriocephalus acheilognathi was collected from 13 of 38 carp (Cyprinus carpio), 2 of 4 mosquito fish (Gambusia holbrooki), and 2 of 12 western carp gudgeon (Hypseleotris klunzingeri) in waterways of the Australian Capital Territory and New South Wales. This is the first record of this parasite in Australia, and its presence in H. klunzingeri is a new host record. B. acheilognathi presumably arrived in Australia with its introduced fish hosts and has since crossed into native fishes, This cestode may infect other native fish species, a potential that is significant given the high pathogenicity associated with infection in other known hosts.

Issues in Australian Foreign Policy January to June 2001

The first half of 2001 saw traditional issues dominating the foreign policy agenda, with both Australia's relationship with the United States and the policy of Asian engagement still holding centre stage. But those old issues generated fresh anxieties. In the United States, the incoming Bush administration displayed a genuine radicalism in its approach to foreign policy, and that raised concerns in many Western capitals — including Canberra — about a new mood of unilateralism in Washington. At the same time, the emergence of the thesis that Australia was becoming a "branch office economy", where key decisions were taken in the capital markets of New York and London, made the government noticeably more cautious and selective in its endorsement of globalisation. Further, the issue of Asian engagement grew steadily more complex: Australian policy-makers searched unsuccessfully for a new focus for the policy of Asian engagement, as Japan's economy wallowed and Indonesia's democratic government tottered.

Australian Asian options

We study European options on the ratio of the stock price to its averageand viceversa. Some of these options are traded in the Australian StockExchange since 1992, thus we call them Australian Asian options. Forgeometric averages, we obtain closed-form expressions for option prices.For arithmetic means, we use dierent approximations that produce verysimilar results.

The People's Republic of China and her relations with the countries of the association of Southeast Asian nations : 1969-1975

Phe Ihesis examines the evolution of the -policies of the People fs Jtenublie of China towards J?hail°nd, PTal ysia, Singapore, Iidonesia pad the Philip-pines, organised in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations from 1969 to 1975• 2ze first central point of this study is an *ir sumption that the foreign relations of The People's Tepublic of Chi la Towards Southeast ^sia have been motivated by a dynamic interplay of t^o main factors: (1) Farxist-Leninist ideology and ICao J^e-tung Ph^ught, which dictate to China to behave as a revolutionary Dover vhich must assist the insurgent movements in the area in their strug fle to overthrow the local governments; (2) national interest, vhich demands of China to safeguard the southern flank of her territory bordering on Southerst 'sia through Friendly relations, trade and ot*»er conventional inrtniments of diplomacy. hile the tvo main motive factors are nuTually antagonistic and exclusivet the Chinere leaders are nevertheless at te mi ting to oring them iirco a coherent policy under Mao's theory of tve {hniity of op-nosites," vhich believes that it is -possible to reconcile these co-posing tendencies into a dynamic enuibrium through vhich both opnosites could be promoted at the same time although not to the same extent* la other words, the Chinese leaders conceive the dynamic equilibrium as a continuum between them in a mix in which one or the other orientation predominates in different •periods* Bins we might see China1 s conduct motivated in one period by mostly ideological considerations at the expense of the staire-to-state relations, then ve might see her policy in the middle of the continuum and suf ering from immo bill sine and just muddling through, or finally ?fe might see her emphasising friendly ties at the expense of support of revolutionary movements at the other extreme -point of the spectrum* !fhe mechanism vhich enables Peking to move from one pole to the other of the spectrum is activated by the following elementsJ (1) the result of an internal power struggle within the leadership in Peking between ideologically radical and moderate elements, which enables the victorious faction to initiate nev policies; (2) Peking's assessment of the changing intentions and capabilities of the major powers in the area; (3) internal changes within the countries of the area and the changing attitudes of their governments towards China; (4) changing fortunes of revolutionary movements operating in the area* 'Phe second major point of this study is an assertion that while China's conduct toward Southeast *lsia after her foundation in 1949 was primarily based upon ideological considerations, the beginning of the seventies saw the national interest reasserting itself as the leading motive factor* Thus China talks with her neighbours in Southeast asia in terms of relevance of fllong historical ties," casting herself into the role of a benevolent "older brother11 who is entitled to reopect and deference in exchange for patronage and protection* Hence the traditional echoes of the past are emerging ever stronger and influencing her postures towards the region, while the open support to revolutionary moevments is underplayed at the moment.

The changing nature of Asian-Latin American economic relations

Includes bibliography