Sex differences in brain plasticity: a new hypothesis for sex ratio bias in autism.

Several observations support the hypothesis that differences in synaptic and regional cerebral plasticity between the sexes account for the high ratio of males to females in autism. First, males are more susceptible than females to perturbations in genes involved in synaptic plasticity. Second, sex-related differences in non-autistic brain structure and function are observed in highly variable regions, namely, the heteromodal associative cortices, and overlap with structural particularities and enhanced activity of perceptual associative regions in autistic individuals. Finally, functional cortical reallocations following brain lesions in non-autistic adults (for example, traumatic brain injury, multiple sclerosis) are sex-dependent. Interactions between genetic sex and hormones may therefore result in higher synaptic and consecutively regional plasticity in perceptual brain areas in males than in females. The onset of autism may largely involve mutations altering synaptic plasticity that create a plastic reaction affecting the most variable and sexually dimorphic brain regions. The sex ratio bias in autism may arise because males have a lower threshold than females for the development of this plastic reaction following a genetic or environmental event.

A test of long memory hypothesis based on self-similarity

This paper develops a new test of true versus spurious long memory, based on log-periodogram estimation of the long memory parameter using skip-sampled data. A correction factor is derived to overcome the bias in this estimator due to aliasing. The procedure is designed to be used in the context of a conventional test of significance of the long memory parameter, and composite test procedure described that has the properties of known asymptotic size and consistency. The test is implemented using the bootstrap, with the distribution under the null hypothesis being approximated using a dependent-sample bootstrap technique to approximate short-run dependence following fractional differencing. The properties of the test are investigated in a set of Monte Carlo experiments. The procedure is illustrated by applications to exchange rate volatility and dividend growth series.

Do we truly see what we think we see? The role of cognitive bias in pathological interpretation.

In the histomorphological grading of prostate carcinoma, pathologists have regularly assigned comparable scores for the architectural Gleason and the now-obsolete nuclear World Health Organization (WHO) grading systems. Although both systems demonstrate good correspondence between grade and survival, they are based on fundamentally different biological criteria. We tested the hypothesis that this apparent concurrence between the two grading systems originates from an interpretation bias in the minds of diagnostic pathologists, rather than reflecting a biological reality. Three pathologists graded 178 prostatectomy specimens, assigning Gleason and WHO scores on glass slides and on digital images of nuclei isolated out of their architectural context. The results were analysed with respect to interdependencies among the grading systems, to tumour recurrence (PSA relapse > 0.1 ng/ml at 48 months) and robust nuclear morphometry, as assessed by computer-assisted image analysis. WHO and Gleason grades were strongly correlated (r = 0.82) and demonstrated identical prognostic power. However, WHO grades correlated poorly with nuclear morphology (r = 0.19). Grading of nuclei isolated out of their architectural context significantly improved accuracy for nuclear morphology (r = 0.55), but the prognostic power was virtually lost. In conclusion, the architectural organization of a tumour, which the pathologist cannot avoid noticing during initial slide viewing at low magnification, unwittingly influences the subsequent nuclear grade assignment. In our study, the prognostic power of the WHO grading system was dependent on visual assessment of tumour growth pattern. We demonstrate for the first time the influence a cognitive bias can have in the generation of an error in diagnostic pathology and highlight a considerable problem in histopathological tumour grading.

Lag-one autocorrelation in short series: Estimation and hypothesis testing

In the first part of the study, nine estimators of the first-order autoregressive parameter are reviewed and a new estimator is proposed. The relationships and discrepancies between the estimators are discussed in order to achieve a clear differentiation. In the second part of the study, the precision in the estimation of autocorrelation is studied. The performance of the ten lag-one autocorrelation estimators is compared in terms of Mean Square Error (combining bias and variance) using data series generated by Monte Carlo simulation. The results show that there is not a single optimal estimator for all conditions, suggesting that the estimator ought to be chosen according to sample size and to the information available of the possible direction of the serial dependence. Additionally, the probability of labelling an actually existing autocorrelation as statistically significant is explored using Monte Carlo sampling. The power estimates obtained are quite similar among the tests associated with the different estimators. These estimates evidence the small probability of detecting autocorrelation in series with less than 20 measurement times.

Sex ratio bias, male aggression, and population collapse in lizards.

The adult sex ratio (ASR) is a key parameter of the demography of human and other animal populations, yet the causes of variation in ASR, how individuals respond to this variation, and how their response feeds back into population dynamics remain poorly understood. A prevalent hypothesis is that ASR is regulated by intrasexual competition, which would cause more mortality or emigration in the sex of increasing frequency. Our experimental manipulation of populations of the common lizard (Lacerta vivipara) shows the opposite effect. Male mortality and emigration are not higher under male-biased ASR. Rather, an excess of adult males begets aggression toward adult females, whose survival and fecundity drop, along with their emigration rate. The ensuing prediction that adult male skew should be amplified and total population size should decline is supported by long-term data. Numerical projections show that this amplifying effect causes a major risk of population extinction. In general, such an "evolutionary trap" toward extinction threatens populations in which there is a substantial mating cost for females, and environmental changes or management practices skew the ASR toward males.

Re-visiting the health care luxury good hypothesis: Aggregation, precision, and publication biases?

[cat] Mentre que una creixent literatura que ha examinat la relació entre la renda i la despesa sanitària suggereix que els serveis sanitaris són un be de luxe (elasticitat renda superior a la unitat), aquesta conclusió es contínuament debatuda atesa l'heterogeneïtat dels resultats. Aquest article testa la hipòtesis dels serveis sanitaris com bens de luxe fent server anàlisi de meta- regressió, particularment analitzant l'existència de biaixos de selecció de publicació, precisió així com biaixos d'agregació. Els resultats apunten l'existència d'un biaix de publicació, robust independentment dels controls analitzats. Els biaixos de precisió i agregació semblen tenir un paper en la generació de les estimacions de l'elasticitat renda. Els nostres resultat suggereixen que l'elasticitat renda dels serveis sanitaris un cop corregir pels biaixos esmentat varien entre 0.26 i 0.84, però no podem rebutjar que la elasticitat renda es igual a la unitat en algunes estimacions de l'elasticitat corregides.

Re-visiting the health care luxury good hypothesis: Aggregation, precision, and publication biases?

[cat] Mentre que una creixent literatura que ha examinat la relació entre la renda i la despesa sanitària suggereix que els serveis sanitaris són un be de luxe (elasticitat renda superior a la unitat), aquesta conclusió es contínuament debatuda atesa l'heterogeneïtat dels resultats. Aquest article testa la hipòtesis dels serveis sanitaris com bens de luxe fent server anàlisi de meta- regressió, particularment analitzant l'existència de biaixos de selecció de publicació, precisió així com biaixos d'agregació. Els resultats apunten l'existència d'un biaix de publicació, robust independentment dels controls analitzats. Els biaixos de precisió i agregació semblen tenir un paper en la generació de les estimacions de l'elasticitat renda. Els nostres resultat suggereixen que l'elasticitat renda dels serveis sanitaris un cop corregir pels biaixos esmentat varien entre 0.26 i 0.84, però no podem rebutjar que la elasticitat renda es igual a la unitat en algunes estimacions de l'elasticitat corregides.

Bias and standard error for social reciprocity measurements

The directional consistency and skew-symmetry statistics have been proposed as global measurements of social reciprocity. Although both measures can be useful for quantifying social reciprocity, researchers need to know whether these estimators are biased in order to assess descriptive results properly. That is, if estimators are biased, researchers should compare actual values with expected values under the specified null hypothesis. Furthermore, standard errors are needed to enable suitable assessment of discrepancies between actual and expected values. This paper aims to derive some exact and approximate expressions in order to obtain bias and standard error values for both estimators for round-robin designs, although the results can also be extended to other reciprocal designs.

Theory of mind and attentional bias to facial emotional expressions: A preliminary study

Theory of mind ability has been associated with performance in interpersonal interactions and has been found to influence aspects such as emotion recognition, social competence, and social anxiety. Being able to attribute mental states to others requires attention to subtle communication cues such as facial emotional expressions. Decoding and interpreting emotions expressed by the face, especially those with negative valence, are essential skills to successful social interaction. The current study explored the association between theory of mind skills and attentional bias to facial emotional expressions. According to the study hypothesis, individuals with poor theory of mind skills showed preferential attention to negative faces over both non-negative faces and neutral objects. Tentative explanations for the findings are offered emphasizing the potential adaptive role of vigilance for threat as a way of allocating a limited capacity to interpret others’ mental states to obtain as much information as possible about potential danger in the social environment.

Bias or rationality? The case of UK commercial real estate investment

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to test the hypothesis that investment decision making in the UK direct property market does not conform to the assumption of economic rationality underpinning portfolio theory. Design/methodology/approach – The developing behavioural real estate paradigm is used to challenge the idea that investor “man” is able to perform with economic rationality, specifically with reference to the analysis of the spatial dispersion of the entire UK “investible stock” and “investible locations” against observed spatial patterns of institutional investment. Location quotients are derived, combining different data sets. Findings – Considerably greater variation in institutional property holdings is found across the UK than would be expected given the economic and stock characteristics of local areas. This appears to provide evidence of irrationality (in the strict traditional economic sense) in the behaviour of institutional investors, with possible herding underpinning levels of investment that cannot be explained otherwise. Research limitations/implications – Over time a lack of distinction has developed between the cause and effect of comparatively low levels of development and institutional property investment across the regions. A critical examination of decision making and behaviour in practice could break this cycle, and could in turn promote regional economic growth. Originality/value – The entire “population” of observations is used to demonstrate the relationships between economic theory and investor performance exploring, for the first time, stock and local area characteristics.

Interpretation bias in preschool children at risk for anxiety: a prospective study

A story-stem paradigm was used to assess interpretation bias in preschool children. Data were available for 131 children. Interpretation bias, behavioural inhibition (BI) and anxiety were assessed when children were aged between 3 years 2 months and 4 years 5 months. Anxiety was subsequently assessed 12-months, 2-years and 5-years later. A significant difference in interpretation bias was found between participants who met criteria for an anxiety diagnosis at baseline, with clinically anxious participants more likely to complete the ambiguous story-stems in a threat-related way. Threat interpretations significantly predicted anxiety symptoms at 12-month follow-up, after controlling for baseline symptoms, but did not predict anxiety symptoms or diagnoses at either 2-year or 5- year follow-up. There was little evidence for a relationship between BI and interpretation bias. Overall, the pattern of results was not consistent with the hypothesis that interpretation bias plays a role in the development of anxiety. Instead, some evidence for a role in the maintenance of anxiety over relatively short periods of time was found. The use of a story-stem methodology to assess interpretation bias in young children is discussed along with the theoretical and clinical implications of the findings.

‘It Was All My Fault’: negative interpretation bias in depressed adolescents

The extent to which cognitive models of development and maintenance of depression apply to adolescents is largely untested, despite the widespread application of Cognitive Behavior Therapy (CBT) for depressed adolescents. Cognitive models suggest that negative cognitions, including interpretation bias, play a role in etiology and maintenance of depression. Given that cognitive development is incomplete by the teenage years and that CBT is not superior to non-cognitive treatments in the treatment of adolescent depression, it is important to test the underlying model. The primary aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that interpretation biases are exhibited by depressed adolescents. Four groups of adolescents were recruited: clinically-referred depressed (n = 27), clinically-referred non-depressed (n = 24), community with elevated depression symptoms (n = 42) and healthy community (n = 150). Participants completed a 20 item ambiguous scenarios questionnaire. Clinically-referred depressed adolescents made significantly more negative interpretations and rated scenarios as less pleasant than all other groups. The results suggest that this element of the cognitive model of depression is applicable to adolescents. Other aspects of the model should be tested so that cognitive treatment can be modified or adapted if necessary.

Threat interpretation bias in anxious children and their mothers

The role of parents in the development of anxiety disorders in children is of increasing research and clinical interest. This study investigated interpretation biases of anxious children and their mothers using the ambiguous stimuli task developed by Hadwin, Frost, French, and Richards (1997). Three groups of children (aged 7 to 12 years) and their mothers were recruited; 23 non-clinical controls, 18 children with an anxiety disorder and 15 children with an externalising disorder. Following diagnostic assessments of the children, children and their mothers independently completed the homophone task and self-report measures of anxiety. Mothers of anxious children had significantly higher self-reported anxiety than mothers of non-clinical children. As hypothesised, children in the anxious group had higher threat interpretation scores than the non-clinical group. The hypothesis that mothers of anxious children would make more threat interpretations was not supported. Paired correlations showed no significant association between threat interpretations made by children and their mothers. There was a significant positive correlation between maternal threat interpretation and child anxiety. The results suggest that there is a complex association between mother's anxiety and cognitions and those of their children, which requires further examination in controlled observational and experimental studies, including treatment trials.

Can institutional investors bias real estate portfolio appraisals? Evidence from the market downturn

This paper investigates the extent to which institutional investors may have influenced independent real estate appraisals during the financial crisis. A conceptual model of the determinants of client influence on real estate appraisals is proposed. It is suggested that the extent of clients’ ability and willingness to bias appraisal outputs is contingent upon market and regulatory environments (ethical norms and legal and institutional frameworks), the salience of the appraisal(s) to the client, financial incentives for the appraiser to respond to client pressure, organisational culture, the level of moral reasoning of both individual clients and appraisers, client knowledge and the degree of appraisal uncertainty. The potential of client influence to bias ostensibly independent real estate appraisals is examined using the opportunity afforded by the market downturn commencing in 2007 in the UK. During the market turbulence at the end of 2007, the motivations of different types of owners to bias appraisals diverged clearly and temporarily provided a unique opportunity to assess potential appraisal bias. We use appraisal-based performance data for individual real estate assets to test whether there were significant ownership effects on performance during this period. The results support the hypothesis that real estate appraisals in this period reflected the differing needs of clients.

Avoidance and inhibition do not predict nonrespondent bias among patients with inflammatory bowel disease

It has been suggested that participant withdrawal from studies can bias estimates. However, this is only possible when withdrawers and nonwithdrawers differ in an important way. We tested the hypothesis that withdrawers are more likely than nonwithdrawers to be avoidant and negatively affected.