Maps (pdf) and raster images (tif) of predicted rural land cover suitability under current (2010) conditions and future climate scenarios

This study projects land cover probabilities under climate change for corn (maize), soybeans, spring and winter wheat, winter wheat-soybean double cropping, cotton, grassland and forest across 16 central U.S. states at a high spatial resolution, while also taking into account the influence of soil characteristics and topography. The scenarios span three oceanic-atmospheric global circulation models, three Representative Concentration Pathways, and three time periods (2040, 2070, 2100). As climate change intensifies, the suitable area for all six crops display large northward shifts. Total suitable area for spring wheat, followed by corn and soybeans, diminish. Suitable area for winter wheat and for winter wheat-soybean double-cropping expand northward, while cotton suitability migrates to new, more northerly, locations. Suitability for forest intensifies in the south while yielding to crops in the north; grassland intensifies in the western Great Plains as crop suitability diminishes. To maintain current broad geographic patterns of land use, large changes in the thermal response of crops such as corn would be required. A transition from corn-soybean to winter wheat-soybean doubling cropping is an alternative adaptation.

Ensemble prediction distribution maps of macroalgae for current conditions and four climate change scenarios and high resultion bathymetry for Potter Cove, WAP, Antarctica

Species distribution models (SDM) predict species occurrence based on statistical relationships with environmental conditions. The R-package biomod2 which includes 10 different SDM techniques and 10 different evaluation methods was used in this study. Macroalgae are the main biomass producers in Potter Cove, King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), Antarctica, and they are sensitive to climate change factors such as suspended particulate matter (SPM). Macroalgae presence and absence data were used to test SDMs suitability and, simultaneously, to assess the environmental response of macroalgae as well as to model four scenarios of distribution shifts by varying SPM conditions due to climate change. According to the averaged evaluation scores of Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) and True scale statistics (TSS) by models, those methods based on a multitude of decision trees such as Random Forest and Classification Tree Analysis, reached the highest predictive power followed by generalized boosted models (GBM) and maximum-entropy approaches (Maxent). The final ensemble model used 135 of 200 calculated models (TSS > 0.7) and identified hard substrate and SPM as the most influencing parameters followed by distance to glacier, total organic carbon (TOC), bathymetry and slope. The climate change scenarios show an invasive reaction of the macroalgae in case of less SPM and a retreat of the macroalgae in case of higher assumed SPM values.

Argentina, summary of biostatistics. Maps and charts, population, natality and mortality statistics.

Reproduced from type-written copy.

The Strangers' guide to the islands of Guernsey and Jersey : embracing a brief history of their situation, extent, population, laws, customs, public buildings, amusements, antiquities, climate, and productions, vegetable and mineral : together with a complete commercial directory of both islands : coins, weights, measures, &c. : embellished with maps of both islands.

Goldsmiths'-Kress no. 27880.

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest Virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia

BACKGROUND Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Summative evaluation of climate application activities with pastoralists in western Queensland

Survey methods were engaged to measure the change in use and knowledge of climate information by pastoralists in western Queensland. The initial mail survey was undertaken in 2000-01 (n=43) and provided a useful benchmark of pastoralists climate knowledge. Two years of climate applications activities were completed and clients were re-surveyed in 2003 (n=49) to measure the change in knowledge and assess the effectiveness of the climate applications activities. Two methods were used to assess changes in client knowledge, viz., self-assessment and test questions. We found that the use of seasonal climate forecasts in decision making increased from 36% in 2001 (n=42) to 51% in 2003 (n=49) (P=0.07). The self-assessment technique was unsatisfactory as a measure of changing knowledge over short periods (1-3 years), but the test question technique was successful and indicated an improvement in climate knowledge among respondents. The increased levels of use of seasonal climate forecasts in management and improved knowledge was partly attributed to the climate applications activities of the project. Further, those who used seasonal forecasting (n=25) didn't understand key components of forecasts (e.g. probability, median) better than those who didn't use seasonal forecasts (n=24) (P>0.05). This identifies the potential for misunderstanding and misinterpretation of forecasts among users and highlights the need for providers of forecasts to understand the difficulties and prepare simply written descriptions of forecasts and disseminate these with the maps showing probabilities. The most preferred means of accessing climate information were internet, email, 'The Season Ahead' newsletter and newspaper. The least preferred were direct contact with extension officers and attending field days and group meetings. Eighty-six percent of respondents used the internet and 67% used ADSL broadband internet (April 2003). Despite these findings, extension officers play a key role in preparing and publishing the information on the web, in emails and newsletters. We also believe that direct contact with extension officers trained in climate applications is desirable in workshop-like events to improve knowledge of the difficult concepts underpinning climate forecasts, which may then stimulate further adoption.

Mapas batimétricos y parámetros morfométricos de lagos patagónicos de Neuquén, de Río Negro y del Chubut (Argentina)

A limnological and fish survey program was developed on 112 lakes and reservoirs of Argentina during the summers of 1984 to 1987. Bathymetric surveys with a SIMRAD Skipper 411 model echosounder and line and lead were conducted on more than 40 lakes. This report presents bathymetric maps for seventeen lakes and reservoirs situated in Patagonian Andes Region and Patagonian Plateau betweem 38°53'S and 45°30'S. The bathymetric maps for two reservoirs were made from topographic maps before impoundment. Hypsographic and depth-area curves, and some morphometric parameters are presented for twenty one Patagonian lakes. Mean depth ranged from 2.0 to 111 m. The deepest lakes are situated in Patagonian Andes Region. Colhue Huapi Lake on Patagonian Plateau, is very shallow, having a mean depth of 2.0 m and being 810 km. in surface area.

New fish populations as evidence of climate chage in former dry areas of the Pampa Region ( Southern South America).

Water bodies located at 34º 58' S, 62º 58' W formed after 1980 by 30 % increasing rainfall during the last half century, were colonized by ten fish species which are a subset of the commonest species living in the pampasic lagunas. These new populations imply a displacement of the West of Pampasian fishes to areas of the western basins previously lacking fish.

What is coastal climate?

Historical definitions of what determines whether one lives in a coastal area or not have varied over time. According to Culliton (1998), a “coastal county” is defined as a county with at least 15% of its total land area located within a nation’s coastal watershed. This emphasizes the land areas within which water flows into the ocean or Great Lakes, but may be better suited for ecosystems or water quality research (Crowell et al. 2007). Some Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) documents suggest that “coastal” includes shoreline-adjacent coastal counties, and perhaps even counties impacted by flooding from coastal storms. An accurate definition of “coastal” is critical in this regard since FEMA uses such definitions to revise and modernize their Flood Insurance Rate Maps (Crowell et al. 2007). A recent map published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Coastal Services Center for the Coastal Change Analysis Program shows that the “coastal” boundary covers the entire state of New York and Michigan, while nearly all of South Carolina is considered “coastal.” The definition of “coastal” one chooses can have major implications, including a simple count of coastal population and the influence of local or state coastal policies. There is, however, one aspect of defining what is “coastal” that has often been overlooked; using atmospheric long-term climate variables to define the inland extent of the coastal zone. This definition, which incorporates temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and relative humidity, is furthermore scalable and globally applicable - even in the face of shifting shorelines. A robust definition using common climate variables should condense the large broad definition often associated with “coastal” such that completely landlocked locations would no longer be considered “coastal.” Moreover, the resulting definition, “coastal climate” or “climatology of the coast”, will help coastal resource managers make better-informed decisions on a wide range of climatologically-influenced issues. The following sections outline the methodology employed to derive some new maps of coastal boundaries in the United States. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Por nós mesmos : as práticas sindicais dos professores públicos na Argentina, no Brasil e no México

A presente pesquisa comparativa mostra por que ao longo do século XX se consolidou o sindicalismo docente de base na Argentina, no Brasil e no México e explica as particularidades nacionais desse processo. A categoria sindicalismo docente de base, desenvolvida no contexto da presente investigação, pretende captar um fenômeno que aparece com clareza na segunda metade do século XX: as organizações de professores tem reivindicações fundamentalmente trabalhistas, legitimidade para organizar medidas coletivas de pressão sobre os governos (particularmente greves) e, além disso, a base da categoria tem uma importante gravitação sobre as entidades que pretendem representá-la. A comparação histórica e sociológica permite identificar três processos sucessivos que foram fundamentais para a afirmação do sindicalismo docente de base: a propagação das associações da categoria, a implantação das organizações na base docente e, finalmente, a consolidação do sindicalismo docente de base. Esses processos constituem conjunturas críticas e as características particulares que as práticas sindicais adquiriram nesses contextos tendem a se reproduzir basicamente por dois mecanismos: a tradição sindical e a regulamentação estatal da atividade sindical e do trabalho docente. As práticas sindicais docentes são estruturadas pelas características dos professores e das suas condições de existência. Também são mediadas pelas particularidades das organizações docentes, pela tradição sindical e pela ação governamental perante a atividade reivindicativa e associativa dos trabalhadores. A reconstrução desses elementos estruturantes e dessas mediações contribui para explicar quando as conjunturas críticas aconteceram e quais características particulares apresentaram. No México, a situação política geral e a relação que estabeleceram os quadros docentes com os governos pós-revolucionários em particular, permitiram uma rápida consolidação das associações docentes e uma implantação na base através do Estado na primeira metade do século. Também nesse período, no México, o professorado perdeu parcialmente as suas características femininas e o confronto com as autoridades como forma de pressão coletiva legitimou-se. Isso contrasta com os outros países, nos quais a organização da categoria se generalizou sem apoio estatal decisivo. A concentração da categoria em escolas e cidades fortaleceu a afirmação do sindicalismo docente de base cujas consequências já podem ser vistas nos três países em finais da década de 1950. Nesse contexto, as organizações docentes argentinas se implantaram na base (depois de que falisse a tentativa do governo de implantar o sindicalismo docente através do Estado), mas as brasileiras não. As organizações brasileiras só se implantariam na base após 1978. Processos que na década de 1950 já estavam em desenvolvimento (como a consolidação do professor como trabalhador de base de sistemas burocráticos dirigidos por especialistas, a regulamentação e burocratização da carreira, a perda de importância das recompensas simbólicas como incentivo para exercer o professorado) e outros que apareceriam nas décadas seguintes (como a incorporação crescente da mulher no mercado de trabalho, a radicalização do movimento estudantil e o recrutamento do professorado entre as camadas mais pobres da população) explicam a consolidação do sindicalismo docente de base entre as décadas de 1970 e 1980

Pan-biogeografia dos ungulados viventes (Mammalia: Cetartiodactyla e Perissodactyla) da região Neotropical, da Zona de Transição Sul-americana e região Andina: aspectos históricos e conservacionistas

Os ungulados viventes (Cetartiodactyla e Perissodactyla), nas regiões estudadas, são representados por 11 gêneros e 24 espécies. O presente estudo propõe reconhecer os padrões de distribuição destas espécies, a partir da aplicação do método pan-biogeográfico de análise de traços. Este método auxilia no entendimento a priori dos padrões congruentes de distribuição e numa compreensão de padrões e processos de diferenciação geográfica no tempo e no espaço, reconstruindo a biogeografia de táxons. Em relação a aspectos conservacionistas, o método foi aplicado na identificação de áreas prioritárias para conservação. A aplicação do método consiste basicamente na marcação das localidades de ocorrência dos diferentes táxons em mapas, sendo estas localidades conectadas por intermédio de linhas seguindo um critério de mínima distância, resultando nos chamados traços individuais que foram plotados nos mapas de biomas da América Central e do Sul do programa ArcView GIS 3.2. A superposição destes traços individuais define um traço generalizado, sugerindo uma história comum, ou seja, a preexistência de uma biota ancestral subsequentemente fragmentada por eventos vicariantes. A interseção de dois ou mais traços generalizados corresponde a um nó biogeográfico, que representa áreas compostas e complexas, nas quais se agrupam distintas histórias biogeográficas. Para a análise pan-biogeográfica foi utilizado o software ArcView GIS 3.2 e a extensão Trazos 2004. A partir da superposição dos 24 traços individuais, foram reconhecidos cinco traços generalizados (TGs): TG1, Mesoamericano/Chocó, composto por Mazama pandora, M. temama e Tapirus bairdii; TG2, Andes do Norte (Mazama rufina, Pudu mephistophiles e Tapirus pinchaque); TG 3, Andes Centrais (Hippocamelus antisensis, Lama guanicoe, Mazama chunyi e Vicugna vicugna) ; TG4, Patagônia chilena (Hippocamelus bisulcus e Pudu puda).; TG5, Chaco/Centro oeste do Brasil (Blastocerus dichotomus, Catagonus wagneri e Ozotocerus bezoarticus); e um nó biogeográfico em Antioquia no noroeste da Colômbia. As espécies Mazama americana, M.bricenii, M.goazoubira, M.nana, Tapirus terrestris, Tayassu pecari e T. tajacu não participaram de nenhum dos traços generalizados. Os padrões de distribuição formados a partir dos traços generalizados indicam que os ungulados viventes sofreram uma fragmentação e diferenciação no Pleistoceno, relacionadas a eventos históricos ocorridos na região Neotropical, na Zona de Transição Sul-americana e na região Andina, explicados pelos movimentos ocorridos nas Zonas de Falhas Tectônicas da América Central e do Sul, por vulcanismo e pelas mudanças climáticas. A formação do platô Altiplano-Puna revelou ser uma barreira geográfica, tanto em tempos pretéritos como em tempos atuais, para a maioria da biota sul-americana, com exceção dos camelídeos, que habitam estas áreas da Argentina, do oeste da Bolívia e sudoeste do Peru. O nó biogeográfico confirmou a presença de componentes bióticos de diferentes origens, constituindo uma área com grande diversidade biológica e endêmica, sugerindo assim uma unidade de conservação no noroeste da América do Sul.

Long-term response of Torrey pine to coastal climate: precipitation, temperature, and fog

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Torrey pine (Pinus torreyana Parry ex Carr.) has one of the most limited geographical ranges and population size in the Pinus genus; it is present only on Santa Rosa Island and on the coast between San Diego and Del Mar, where our research was conducted. A 168-year chronology (1827-1994) was developed using 28 increment cores extracted from 15 living and 2 dead stranding trees at Torrey Pines State Reserve, San Diego, California. ... The spatial correlation with western North America winter and spring precipitation, as well as with published tree-ring chronologies, indicates a connection with the American Southwest. Global correlation maps with winter sea level pressure and sea surface temperature are consistent with the hypothesis that San Diego precipitation is affected by a southerly displaced North Pacific storm track and by warmer water farther south, both leading to higher transport of lower latitude moisture.

Secuestro de carbono y nitrógeno y emisiones de óxido nitroso del suelo bajo diferentes sistemas de labranza y secuencias de cultivo en la región semiárida pampeana argentina

El objetivo de esta tesis fue estudiar la influencia de diferentes secuencias de cultivos soja - maíz (sj - mz) y soja - soja (sj - sj), y sistemas de labranza, siembra directa con cultivo de cobertura (SDcc) y labranza reducida (LR); sobre los stocks de carbono orgánico total (COT) y nitrógeno total (Nt) y las emisiones de óxido nitroso (N2O) del suelo en condiciones de campo. El experimento está situado en Manfredi, Córdoba, Argentina. El clima de la región es semiárido y el suelo del experimento es un Haplustol éntico. Luego de 13 años se realizó un muestreo de suelo hasta 100 cm de profundidad y se analizó densidad aparente y composición química del suelo. Las emisiones de N2O se midieron durante un año a campo. Los stocks de COT y Nt comparado con LR y los tratamientos bajo sj-sj los menores stocks, tendencia que se mantuvo hasta los 100 cm. La siembra directa promueve la acumulación de COT y Nt y el efecto es mayor cuanto mayor es la inclusión de gramíneas en la secuencia. Respecto de las emisiones de N2O en general variaron considerablemente con el tiempo y las tasas más altas se asocian acon períodos de altos contenidos de agua y nitratos en el suelo. La aplicación de fertilizante nitrogenado en maíz aumentó las emisiones de N2O del suelo. Las emisiones anuales de N - N2O medidas fueron inferiores a las calculadas en base a Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), esta metodología sobreestimó las emisioens de N2O, para las condiciones estudiadas.

Non-linearities, regime shifts and recovery: The recent influence of climate on Black Sea chlorophyll

The Black Sea ecosystem experienced severe eutrophication-related degradation during the 1970s and 1980s. However, in recent years the Black Sea has shown some signs of recovery which are often attributed to a reduction in nutrient loading. Here, SeaWiFS chlorophyll a (chl a), a proxy for phytoplankton biomass, is used to investigate spatio-temporal patterns in Black Sea phytoplankton dynamics and to explore the potential role of climate in the Black Sea's recovery. Maps of chl a anomalies, calculated relative to the 8 year mean, emphasize spatial and temporal variability of phytoplankton biomass in the Black Sea, particularly between the riverine-influenced Northwest Shelf and the open Black Sea. Evolution of phytoplankton biomass has shown significant spatial variability of persistence of optimal bloom conditions between three major regions of the Black Sea. With the exception of 2001, chl a has generally decreased during our 8 year time-series. However, the winter of 2000–2001 was anomalously warm with low wind stress, resulting in reduced vertical mixing of the water column and retention of nutrients in the photic zone. These conditions were associated with anomalously high levels of chl a throughout much of the open Black Sea during the following spring and summer. The unusual climatic conditions occurring in 2001 may have triggered a shift in the Black Sea's chl a regime. The long-term significance of this recent shift is still uncertain but illustrates a non-linear response to climate forcing that makes future ecosystem changes in the pelagic Black Sea ecosystem difficult to predict.

PREDICTING THE SPATIAL-DISTRIBUTION OF CLIMATE - TEMPERATURE IN GREAT-BRITAIN

1. The prediction and mapping of climate in areas between climate stations is of increasing importance in ecology.

2. Four categories of model, simple interpolation, thin plate splines, multiple linear regression and mixed spline-regression, were tested for their ability to predict the spatial distribution of temperature on the British mainland. The models were tested by external cross-verification.

3. The British distribution of mean daily temperature was predicted with the greatest accuracy by using a mixed model: a thin plate spline fitted to the surface of the country, after correction of the data by a selection from 16 independent topographical variables (such as altitude, distance from the sea, slope and topographic roughness), chosen by multiple regression from a digital terrain model (DTM) of the country.

4. The next most accurate method was a pure multiple regression model using the DTM. Both regression and thin plate spline models based on a few variables (latitude, longitude and altitude) only were comparatively unsatisfactory, but some rather simple methods of surface interpolation (such as bilinear interpolation after correction to sea level) gave moderately satisfactory results. Differences between the methods seemed to be dependent largely on their ability to model the effect of the sea on land temperatures.

5. Prediction of temperature by the best methods was greater than 95% accurate in all months of the year, as shown by the correlation between the predicted and actual values. The predicted temperatures were calculated at real altitudes, not subject to sea-level correction.

6. A minimum of just over 30 temperature recording stations would generate a satisfactory surface, provided the stations were well spaced.

7. Maps of mean daily temperature, using the best overall methods are provided; further important variables, such as continentality and length of growing season, were also mapped. Many of these are believed to be the first detailed representations at real altitude.

8. The interpolated monthly temperature surfaces are available on disk.