5-year Chlamydia vaccination programme could reverse disease-related koala population decline: Predictions from a mathematical model using field data

BACKGROUND Many koala populations around Australia are in serious decline, with a substantial component of this decline in some Southeast Queensland populations attributed to the impact of Chlamydia. A Chlamydia vaccine for koalas is in development and has shown promise in early trials. This study contributes to implementation preparedness by simulating vaccination strategies designed to reverse population decline and by identifying which age and sex category it would be most effective to target. METHODS We used field data to inform the development and parameterisation of an individual-based stochastic simulation model of a koala population endemic with Chlamydia. The model took into account transmission, morbidity and mortality caused by Chlamydia infections. We calibrated the model to characteristics of typical Southeast Queensland koala populations. As there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of the vaccine in real-world settings, a variety of potential vaccine efficacies, half-lives and dosing schedules were simulated. RESULTS Assuming other threats remain constant, it is expected that current population declines could be reversed in around 5-6 years if female koalas aged 1-2 years are targeted, average vaccine protective efficacy is 75%, and vaccine coverage is around 10% per year. At lower vaccine efficacies the immunological effects of boosting become important: at 45% vaccine efficacy population decline is predicted to reverse in 6 years under optimistic boosting assumptions but in 9 years under pessimistic boosting assumptions. Terminating a successful vaccination programme at 5 years would lead to a rise in Chlamydia prevalence towards pre-vaccination levels. CONCLUSION For a range of vaccine efficacy levels it is projected that population decline due to endemic Chlamydia can be reversed under realistic dosing schedules, potentially in just 5 years. However, a vaccination programme might need to continue indefinitely in order to maintain Chlamydia prevalence at a sufficiently low level for population growth to continue.

Modeling the effect of striped bass (Morone saxatilis) on the population viability of Sacramento River winter-run chinook salmon (Onchorhynchus tshawytscha)

We estimated the impact of striped bass (Morone saxatilis) predation on winter-run chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) with a Bayesian population dynamics model using striped bass and winter-run chinook salmon population abundance data. Winter-run chinook salmon extinction and recovery probabilities under different future striped bass abundance levels were estimated by simulating from the posterior distribution of model parameters. The model predicts that if the striped bass population declines to 512,000 adults as expected in the absence of stocking, winter-run chinook salmon will have about a 28% chance of quasi-extinction (defined as three consecutive spawning runs of fewer than 200 adults) within 50 years. If stocking stabilizes the striped bass population at 700,000 adults, the predicted quasi-extinction probability is 30%. A more ambitious stocking program that maintains a population of 3 million adult striped bass would increase the predicted quasi-extinction probability to 55%. Extinction probability, but not recovery probability, was fairly insensitive to assumptions about density dependence. We conclude that winter-run chinook salmon face a serious extinction risk without augmentation of the striped bass population and that substantial increases in striped bass abundance could significantly increase the threat to winter-run chi-nook salmon if not mitigated by increasing winter chinook salmon survival in some other way.

Lesser Scaup Population Dynamics: What Can Be Learned from Available Data?

Populations of Lesser Scaup (Aythya affinis) have declined markedly in North America since the early 1980s. When considering alternatives for achieving population recovery, it would be useful to understand how the rate of population growth is functionally related to the underlying vital rates and which vital rates affect population growth rate the most if changed (which need not be those that influenced historical population declines). To establish a more quantitative basis for learning about life history and population dynamics of Lesser Scaup, we summarized published and unpublished estimates of vital rates recorded between 1934 and 2005, and developed matrix life-cycle models with these data for females breeding in the boreal forest, prairie-parklands, and both regions combined. We then used perturbation analysis to evaluate the effect of changes in a variety of vital-rate statistics on finite population growth rate and abundance. Similar to Greater Scaup (Aythya marila), our modeled population growth rate for Lesser Scaup was most sensitive to unit and proportional change in adult female survival during the breeding and non-breeding seasons, but much less so to changes in fecundity parameters. Interestingly, population growth rate was also highly sensitive to unit and proportional changes in the mean of nesting success, duckling survival, and juvenile survival. Given the small samples of data for key aspects of the Lesser Scaup life cycle, we recommend additional research on vital rates that demonstrate a strong effect on population growth and size (e.g., adult survival probabilities). Our life-cycle models should be tested and regularly updated in the future to simultaneously guide science and management of Lesser Scaup populations in an adaptive context.

Contributions of Weather and Predation to Reduced Breeding Success in a Threatened Northern Loggerhead Shrike Population

Populations on the periphery of a species' range may experience more severe environmental conditions relative to populations closer to the core of the range. As a consequence, peripheral populations may have lower reproductive success or survival, which may affect their persistence. In this study, we examined the influence of environmental conditions on breeding biology and nest survival in a threatened population of Loggerhead Shrikes (Lanius ludovicianus) at the northern limit of the range in southeastern Alberta, Canada, and compared our estimates with those from shrike populations elsewhere in the range. Over the 2-year study in 1992–1993, clutch sizes averaged 6.4 eggs, and most nests were initiated between mid-May and mid-June. Rate of renesting following initial nest failure was 19%, and there were no known cases of double-brooding. Compared with southern populations, rate of renesting was lower and clutch sizes tended to be larger, whereas the length of the nestling and hatchling periods appeared to be similar. Most nest failures were directly associated with nest predators, but weather had a greater direct effect in 1993. Nest survival models indicated higher daily nest survival during warmer temperatures and lower precipitation, which may include direct effects of weather on nestlings as well as indirect effects on predator behavior or food abundance. Daily nest survival varied over the nesting cycle in a curvilinear pattern, with a slight increase through laying, approximately constant survival through incubation, and a decline through the nestling period. Partial brood loss during the nestling stage was high, particularly in 1993, when conditions were cool and wet. Overall, the lower likelihood of renesting, lower nest survival, and higher partial brood loss appeared to depress reproductive output in this population relative to those elsewhere in the range, and may have increased susceptibility to population declines.

Declines of Aerial Insectivores in North America Follow a Geographic Gradient

North American birds that feed on aerial insects are experiencing widespread population declines. An analysis of the North American Breeding Bird Survey trend estimates for 1966 to 2006 suggests that declines in this guild are significantly stronger than in passerines in general. The pattern of decline also shows a striking geographical gradient, with aerial insectivore declines becoming more prevalent towards the northeast of North America. Declines are also more acute in species that migrate long distances compared to those that migrate short distances. The declines become manifest, almost without exception, in the mid 1980s. The taxonomic breadth of these downward trends suggests that declines in aerial insectivore populations are linked to changes in populations of flying insects, and these changes might be indicative of underlying ecosystem changes.

Stability of a Seabird Population in the Presence of an Introduced Predator

We hypothesized that although large populations may appear able to withstand predation and disturbance, added stochasticity in population growth rate (λ) increases the risk of dramatic population declines. Approximately half of the Aleutian Islands' population of Least Auklets (Aethia pusilla) breed at one large colony at Kiska Island in the presence of introduced Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) whose population erupts periodically. We evaluated two management plans, do nothing or eradicate rats, for this colony, and performed stochastic elasticity analysis to focus future research and management. Our results indicated that Least Auklets breeding at Kiska Island had the lowest absolute value of growth rate and more variable λ's (neither statistically significant) during 2001-2010, when compared with rat-free colonies at Buldir and Kasatochi islands. We found variability in the annual proportional change in population size among islands with Kiska Island having the fastest rate of decline, 78% over 20 years. Under the assumption that the eradication of rats would result in vital rates similar to those observed at rat-free Buldir and Kasatochi islands, we found the projected population decline decreased from 78% to 24% over 20 years. Overall, eradicating rats at Kiska Island is not likely to increase Least Auklet vital rates, but will decrease the amount of variation in λ, resulting in a significantly slower rate of population decline. We recommend the eradication of rats from Kiska Island to decrease the probability of dramatic population declines and ensure the future persistence of this important colony.

Managing threatened species – the ecological toolbox, evolutionary theory and the declining-population paradigm

1. The management of threatened species is an important practical way in which conservationists can intervene in the extinction process and reduce the loss of biodiversity. Understanding the causes of population declines (past, present and future) is pivotal to designing effective practical management. This is the declining-population paradigm identified by Caughley. 2. There are three broad classes of ecological tool used by conservationists to guide management decisions for threatened species: statistical models of habitat use, demographic models and behaviour-based models. Each of these is described here, illustrated with a case study and evaluated critically in terms of its practical application. 3. These tools are fundamentally different. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models both use descriptions of patterns in abundance and demography, in relation to a range of factors, to inform management decisions. In contrast, behaviourbased models describe the evolutionary processes underlying these patterns, and derive such patterns from the strategies employed by individuals when competing for resources under a specific set of environmental conditions. 4. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models have been used successfully to make management recommendations for declining populations. To do this, assumptions are made about population growth or vital rates that will apply when environmental conditions are restored, based on either past data collected under favourable environmental conditions or estimates of these parameters when the agent of decline is removed. As a result, they can only be used to make reliable quantitative predictions about future environments when a comparable environment has been experienced by the population of interest in the past. 5. Many future changes in the environment driven by management will not have been experienced by a population in the past. Under these circumstances, vital rates and their relationship with population density will change in the future in a way that is not predictable from past patterns. Reliable quantitative predictions about population-level responses then need to be based on an explicit consideration of the evolutionary processes operating at the individual level. 6. Synthesis and applications. It is argued that evolutionary theory underpins Caughley’s declining-population paradigm, and that it needs to become much more widely used within mainstream conservation biology. This will help conservationists examine critically the reliability of the tools they have traditionally used to aid management decision-making. It will also give them access to alternative tools, particularly when predictions are required for changes in the environment that have not been experienced by a population in the past.

Managing threatened species: the ecological toolbox, evolutionary theory and declining-population paradigm

1. The management of threatened species is an important practical way in which conservationists can intervene in the extinction process and reduce the loss of biodiversity. Understanding the causes of population declines (past, present and future) is pivotal to designing effective practical management. This is the declining-population paradigm identified by Caughley. 2. There are three broad classes of ecological tool used by conservationists to guide management decisions for threatened species: statistical models of habitat use, demographic models and behaviour-based models. Each of these is described here, illustrated with a case study and evaluated critically in terms of its practical application. 3. These tools are fundamentally different. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models both use descriptions of patterns in abundance and demography, in relation to a range of factors, to inform management decisions. In contrast, behaviour-based models describe the evolutionary processes underlying these patterns, and derive such patterns from the strategies employed by individuals when competing for resources under a specific set of environmental conditions. 4. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models have been used successfully to make management recommendations for declining populations. To do this, assumptions are made about population growth or vital rates that will apply when environmental conditions are restored, based on either past data collected under favourable environmental conditions or estimates of these parameters when the agent of decline is removed. As a result, they can only be used to make reliable quantitative predictions about future environments when a comparable environment has been experienced by the population of interest in the past. 5. Many future changes in the environment driven by management will not have been experienced by a population in the past. Under these circumstances, vital rates and their relationship with population density will change in the future in a way that is not predictable from past patterns. Reliable quantitative predictions about population-level responses then need to be based on an explicit consideration of the evolutionary processes operating at the individual level. 6. Synthesis and applications. It is argued that evolutionary theory underpins Caughley's declining-population paradigm, and that it needs to become much more widely used within mainstream conservation biology. This will help conservationists examine critically the reliability of the tools they have traditionally used to aid management decision-making. It will also give them access to alternative tools, particularly when predictions are required for changes in the environment that have not been experienced by a population in the past.

Effects of noise and by-catch on a Danish harbour porpoise population

Ships and wind turbines generate noise, which can have a negative impact on marine mammal populations by scaring animals away. Effective modelling of how this affects the populations has to take account of the location and timing of disturbances. Here we construct an individual-based model of harbour porpoises in the Inner Danish Waters. Individuals have their own energy budgets constructed using established principles of physiological ecology. Data are lacking on the spatial distribution of food which is instead inferred from knowledge of time-varying porpoise distributions. The model produces plausible patterns of population dynamics and matches well the age distribution of porpoises caught in by-catch. It estimates the effect of existing wind farms as a 10% reduction in population size when food recovers fast (after two days). Proposed new wind farms and ships do not result in further population declines. The population is however sensitive to variations in mortality resulting from by-catch and to the speed at which food recovers after being depleted. If food recovers slowly the effect of wind turbines becomes negligible, whereas ships are estimated to have a significant negative impact on the population. Annual by-catch rates ≥10% lead to monotonously decreasing populations and to extinction, and even the estimated by-catch rate from the adjacent area (approximately 4.1%) has a strong impact on the population. This suggests that conservation efforts should be more focused on reducing by-catch in commercial gillnet fisheries than on limiting the amount of anthropogenic noise. Individual-based models are unique in their ability to take account of the location and timing of disturbances and to show their likely effects on populations. The models also identify deficiencies in the existing database and can be used to set priorities for future field research.

Microsatellite variation in the yellowhammer Emberiza citrinella : population structure of a declining farmland bird

In recent years, there has been much concern in the UK about population declines of widespread species in agricultural habitats. Conservation-orientated research on declining birds has focused on vital rates of survival and productivity. However, the environmental factors which may influence movements between populations of widespread species is poorly understood. Population genetic structure is an indirect description of dispersal between groups of individuals. To attempt to develop an understanding of genetic structuring in a widespread, but declining, farmland bird, we therefore investigated the yellowhammer, Emberiza citrinella, population in England and Wales using microsatellite data. Our first aim was to investigate whether there was genetic substructuring in the population. A second aim was to investigate if there was a relationship between genetic distances and various environmental variables. Finally, we analysed the microsatellite data for evidence of loss of genetic variation due to population decline. Our data showed a slight but significant structure within the yellowhammer population. This therefore cannot be considered a panmictic population. Our example from South Cumbria implies that high-altitude barriers may have a slight influence on population structure. However, on the whole, genetic distances between sample sites were not significantly correlated with geographical distances, degrees of population connectivity, high altitudes, or differences in precipitation between sites. Finally, we detected departures from mutation-drift equilibrium (excess heterozygosity), which is indicative of a loss of genetic variation through recent decline.

Interaction between breeding habitat and elevation affects prevalence but not infection intensity of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in Brazilian anuran assemblages

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Khoisan hunter-gatherers have been the largest population throughout most of modern-human demographic history

The Khoisan people from Southern Africa maintained ancient lifestyles as hunter-gatherers or pastoralists up to modern times, though little else is known about their early history. Here we infer early demographic histories of modern humans using whole-genome sequences of five Khoisan individuals and one Bantu speaker. Comparison with a 420 K SNP data set from worldwide individuals demonstrates that two of the Khoisan genomes from the Ju/'hoansi population contain exclusive Khoisan ancestry. Coalescent analysis shows that the Khoisan and their ancestors have been the largest populations since their split with the non-Khoisan population similar to 100-150 kyr ago. In contrast, the ancestors of the non-Khoisan groups, including Bantu-speakers and non-Africans, experienced population declines after the split and lost more than half of their genetic diversity. Paleoclimate records indicate that the precipitation in southern Africa increased similar to 80-100 kyr ago while west-central Africa became drier. We hypothesize that these climate differences might be related to the divergent-ancient histories among human populations.

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in amphibians confiscated from illegal wildlife trade and used in an ex situ breeding program in Brazil

This paper describes an outbreak of chytridiomycosis affecting a group of Dendrobates tinctorius, a Neotropical anuran species, confiscated from the illegal wildlife trade and housed in a private zoo in Brazil as part of an ex situ breeding program. We examined histological sections of the skin of 30 D. tinctorius and 20 Adelphobates galactonotus individuals. Twenty D. tinctorius (66.7%) and none of the A. galactonotus were positive for Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Multiple development stages of Bd infection were observed. The reasons for the interspecific difference in the rate of infection could not be determined, and further studies are advised. Because the examined population consisted of confiscated frogs, detailed epidemiological aspects could not be investigated, and the source of the fungus remains uncertain. The existence of ex situ amphibian populations is important for protecting species at higher risk in the wild, and ex situ amphibian conservation and breeding programs in Brazil may be established using confiscated frogs as founders. However, this paper alerts these programs to the urgency of strict quarantine procedures to prevent the introduction of potential pathogens, particularly Bd, into ex situ conservation programs.

Diversity patterns of amphibians in lowland Amazonian forests in southeastern Peru

Biological diversity is threatened worldwide and it is a priority to generate more information that can be used both for understanding ecological processes and determining conservation strategies. For my dissertation, I focused on amphibian diversity patterns in lowland rainforests of southwestern Amazonia to evaluate the importance of habitat heterogeneity in the region. My main purpose was to test the hypothesis that amphibian communities in different forest types differ in species richness, composition, and abundance. I used standardized visual encounter surveys to quantify the species composition and abundance of amphibians at four sites, each containing four forest types (floodplain, terra firme, bamboo, and palm swamp). I used leaf-litter plots to evaluate the effect of soil and leaf-litter characteristics on species richness and abundance of leaf-litter frogs. I intensively sampled at one site and then sampled three other sites (distance among sites varied 3.5–105 km) to evaluate whether the patterns observed at one site were similar elsewhere. I also updated the information on threatened and potentially threatened amphibians in Peru and my study region. I found that no species appears to have experienced population declines in southeastern Peru, suggesting that the region still contains the original species pool. My results support the hypothesis that amphibian communities differ across forest types and that patterns observed at the local scale (one site) are similar at the regional scale (four sites). My data also indicate that there is no correlation between species composition and geographic distance among sites. Instead, an important proportion of the gamma diversity is represented by habitat-related beta diversity. My leaf-litter plot data showed that part of the variation in the leaf-litter community structure is explained by soil and litter characteristics. I found that soil total phosphorus and, to a lesser extent, humidity, leaf-litter mass, and pH is linked to species presence/absence and abundance. My study provides the first standardized, quantitative comparison of amphibian community structure across four major forest types in southwestern Amazonia and highlights the fact that forest types are complementary and necessary for maintaining high species richness in the region.

Diversity Patterns of Amphibians in Lowland Amazonian Forests in Southeastern Peru

Biological diversity is threatened worldwide and it is a priority to generate more information that can be used both for understanding ecological processes and determining conservation strategies. For my dissertation, I focused on amphibian diversity patterns in lowland rainforests of southwestern Amazonia to evaluate the importance of habitat heterogeneity in the region. My main purpose was to test the hypothesis that amphibian communities in different forest types differ in species richness, composition, and abundance. I used standardized visual encounter surveys to quantify the species composition and abundance of amphibians at four sites, each containing four forest types (floodplain, terra firme, bamboo, and palm swamp). I used leaf-litter plots to evaluate the effect of soil and leaf-litter characteristics on species richness and abundance of leaf-litter frogs. I intensively sampled at one site and then sampled three other sites (distance among sites varied 3.5-105 km) to evaluate whether the patterns observed at one site were similar elsewhere. I also updated the information on threatened and potentially threatened amphibians in Peru and my study region. I found that no species appears to have experienced population declines in southeastern Peru, suggesting that the region still contains the original species pool. My results support the hypothesis that amphibian communities differ across forest types and that patterns observed at the local scale (one site) are similar at the regional scale (four sites). My data also indicate that there is no correlation between species composition and geographic distance among sites. Instead, an important proportion of the gamma diversity is represented by habitat-related beta diversity. My leaf-litter plot data showed that part of the variation in the leaf-litter community structure is explained by soil and litter characteristics. I found that soil total phosphorus and, to a lesser extent, humidity, leaf-litter mass, and pH is linked to species presence/absence and abundance. My study provides the first standardized, quantitative comparison of amphibian community structure across four major forest types in southwestern Amazonia and highlights the fact that forest types are complementary and necessary for maintaining high species richness in the region.