Excess entry, ambiguity seeking and competence: An experimental investigation

Excess entry refers to the high failure rate of new entrepreneurial ventures. Economic explanations suggest 'hit and run' entrants and risk-seeking behavior. A psychological explanation is that people (entrepreneurs) are overconfident in their abilities (Camerer & Lovallo, 1999). Characterizing entry decisions as ambiguous gambles, we alternatively suggest following Heath and Tversky (1991) that people seek ambiguity when the source of uncertainty is related to their competence. Overconfidence, as such, plays no role. This hypothesis is confirmed in an experimental study that also documents the phenomenon of reference group neglect. Finally, we emphasize the utility that people gain from engaging in activities that contribute to a sense of competence. This is an important force in economic activity that deserves more explicit attention.

Strategic ambiguity in electoral competition

Many have observed that political candidates running for election areoften purposefully expressing themselves in vague and ambiguous terms. In thispaper we provide a simple formal model of this phenomenon. We model theelectoral competition between two candidates as a two--stage game. In thefirst stage of the game two candidates simultaneously choose their ideologies,and in the second stage they simultaneously choose their level of ambiguity.Our results show that ambiguity, although disliked by voters, may be sustainedin equilibrium. The introduction of ambiguity as a strategic choice variablefor the candidates can also serve to explain why candidates with the sameelectoral objectives end up ``separating'', that is, assuming different ideological positions.

Ambiguity seeking as a result of the status quo bias

Several factors affect attitudes toward ambiguity. What happens, however, when peopleare asked to exchange an ambiguous alternative in their possession for an unambiguousone? We present three experiments in which individuals preferred to retain the former.This status quo bias emerged both within- and between-subjects, with and withoutincentives, with different outcome distributions, and with endowments determined byboth the experimenter and the participants themselves. Findings emphasize the need toaccount for the frames of reference under which evaluations of probabilistic informationtake place as well as modifications that should be incorporated into descriptive modelsof decision making.

Optimal bail out policy, conditionality and constructive ambiguity

This paper addresses the issue of the optimal behaviour of the Lender of Last Resort (LOLR) in its microeconomic role regarding individual financial institutions in distress. It has been argued that the LOLR should not intervene at the microeconomic level and let any defaulting institution face the market discipline, as it will be confronted with the consequences of the risks it has taken. By considering a simple costbenefit analysis we show that this position may lack a sufficient foundation. We establish that, instead, uder reasonable assumptions, the optimal policy has to be conditional on the amount of uninsured debt issued by the defaulting bank. Yet in equilibrium, because the rescue policy is costly, the LOLR will not rescue all the banks that fulfill the uninsured debt requirement condition, but will follow a mixed strategy. This we interpret as the confirmation of the "creative ambiguity" principle, perfectly in line with the central bankers claim that it is efficient for them to have discretion in lending to individual institutions. Alternatively, in other cases, when the social cost of a bank's bankruptcy is too high, it is optimal for the LOLR to bail out the insititution, and this gives support to the "too big to fail" policy.

Ambiguity in election games

We construct a model in which the ambiguity of candidates allows them toincrease the number of voters to whom they appeal when voters have intense preferences for one of the alternatives available. An ambiguous candidate may offer voters with different preferences the hope that their most preferred alternative will be implemented. We find conditions under which ambiguous strategies are chosen in equilibrium. These conditions include the case in which there is an outcome that is a majority winner against all other outcomes but is not the most preferred outcome for a majority of voters. It is shown that if the number of candidates or parties increases, ambiguity will not be possible in equilibrium, but a larger set of possible policies increases the chance that at least one candidate will choose to be ambiguous in equilibrium.

Iowa Department of Transportation Fiscal Year 2008 Report of Savings by Using Video Conferencing Through Iowa Communications Network to the Iowa General Assembly Pursuant to Iowa Code § II 84 Acts and Joint Resolutions Enacted at the 1994 Regular Session of the 75th General Assembly of the State of Iowa Iowa Code §8D.10 Report of Savings by State Agencies

Iowa Code § 8D.10 requires certain state agencies prepare an annual report to the General Assembly certifying the identified savings associated with that state agency’s use of the Iowa Communications Network (ICN). This report covers estimated cost savings related to video conferencing via ICN for the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT). In FY 2008, the DOT did not conduct any sessions utilizing ICN’s video conferencing system. Therefore, no cost savings were calculated for this report.

Iowa Department of Transportation Fiscal Year 2010 Report of Savings by Using Video Conferencing Through Iowa Communications Network to the Iowa General Assembly Pursuant to Iowa Code § II 84 Acts and Joint Resolutions Enacted at the 1994 Regular Session of the 75th General Assembly of the State of Iowa

Introduction and summary Iowa Code § 8D.10 requires certain state agencies to prepare an annual report to the General Assembly certifying the identified savings associated with that state agency’s use of the Iowa Communications Network (ICN). This report covers estimated cost savings related to video conferencing via ICN for the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT). In FY 2010, the DOT did not conduct any sessions utilizing ICN’s video conferencing system. Therefore, no cost savings were calculated for this report.

When does charisma matter for top-level leaders? Effect of attributional ambiguity

One stream of leadership theory suggests leaders are evaluated via inferential observer processes that compare the fit of the target to a prototype of an ideal (charismatic) leader. Attributional theories of leadership suggest that evaluations depend on knowledge of past organizational performance, which is attributed to the leader's skills. We develop a novel theory showing how inferential and attributional processes simultaneously explain top-level leader evaluation and ultimately leader retention and selection. We argue that observers will mostly rely on attributional mechanisms when performance signals clearly indicate good or poor performance outcomes. However, under conditions of attributional ambiguity (i.e., when performance signals are unclear), observers will mostly rely on inferential processes. In Study 1 we tested our theory in an unconventional context-the U.S. presidential election-and found that the two processes, due to the leader's charisma and country economic performance, interact in predicting whether a leader is selected. Using a business context and an experimental design, in Study 2 we show that CEO charisma and firm performance interact in predicting leader retention, confirming the results we found in Study 1. Our results suggest that this phenomenon is quite general and can apply to various performance domains.

A Study of role conflict, role ambiguity, locus of control, job satisfaction and participation in decision making among front-line vocational service workers for mentally retarded adults

This study was an investigation of individual and organizational factors, as perceived by front-line vocational service workers from Adult Rehabilitation Centres (ARC Industries) for mentally retarded adults. The specific variables which were measured included role conflict/role ambiguity (role factors), internal/external locus of control (individual differences), job satisfaction with work and supervision (job attitudes) and participation in deci~ion making (organizational factor). The exploration of these constructs was conducted by means of self-report questionnaires which were completed by sixty-nine out of a total of ninety front-line employees. The surveys were distributed in booklet form to nine distinct rehabilitation facilities from St. Catharines, West Lincoln, Greater Niagara, Port Colborne, WeIland, Fort Erie, Hamilton, Guelph and Brantford. The survey data was evaluated by the statisti.cal Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) which used the Pearson Product Moment Correlation procedure and a compar~son of means test. A comparison of correlation coefficients test was also conducted. This statistical procedure was calculated mathematically. The results obtained from the statistical evaluation confirmed the prediction that self-reported measures of participation in decision making and satisfaction (work and supervision) would be negatively correlated with role conflict and role ambiguity. As well, the speculation that perceived satisfaction (work and supervision) would be positively correlated with participation in decision making was empirically supported. Internal and external locus of control did not contribute to a significant difference in r~sponses to role perceptions (conflict and ambiguity) , satisfaction (work and supervision) or the correlational relationship between participation in decision making and satisfaction (work and supervision). Overall, the findings from this study substantiated the importance of examining employee perceptions in the workplace and the interrelationships among individual and organizational variables. This research was considered a contribution to the general area of occupational stress and to the study of individuals in work organizations.

Resolutions reported by the Military Committee, expressive of the thanks of Congress to Major General Jackson, and the troops under his command, for their gallantry and good conduct, in the defence of New Orleans.--

February 13, 1815. Printed by order of the Senate of the United States.

Resolutions reported by the Military Committee, expressive of the thanks of Congress to Major General Jackson, and the troops under his command, for their gallantry and good conduct, in the defence of New Orleans

February 13, 1815. Printed by order of the Senate of the United States. Printed by Roger C. Weightman

Interpreting Quantifier Scope Ambiguity: Evidence of Heuristic First, Algorithmic Second Processing

The present work suggests that sentence processing requires both heuristic and algorithmic processing streams, where the heuristic processing strategy precedes the algorithmic phase. This conclusion is based on three self-paced reading experiments in which the processing of two-sentence discourses was investigated, where context sentences exhibited quantifier scope ambiguity. Experiment 1 demonstrates that such sentences are processed in a shallow manner. Experiment 2 uses the same stimuli as Experiment 1 but adds questions to ensure deeper processing. Results indicate that reading times are consistent with a lexical-pragmatic interpretation of number associated with context sentences, but responses to questions are consistent with the algorithmic computation of quantifier scope. Experiment 3 shows the same pattern of results as Experiment 2, despite using stimuli with different lexicalpragmatic biases. These effects suggest that language processing can be superficial, and that deeper processing, which is sensitive to structure, only occurs if required. Implications for recent studies of quantifier scope ambiguity are discussed.

Second International American Conference México: 1901-1902: Organization of the Conference, Projects, Reports, Motions, Debates and Resolutions

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