Nonparametric Estimation of the Bivariate Recurrence Time Distribution

This paper considers statistical models in which two different types of events, such as the diagnosis of a disease and the remission of the disease, occur alternately over time and are observed subject to right censoring. We propose nonparametric estimators for the joint distribution of bivariate recurrence times and the marginal distribution of the first recurrence time. In general, the marginal distribution of the second recurrence time cannot be estimated due to an identifiability problem, but a conditional distribution of the second recurrence time can be estimated non-parametrically. In literature, statistical methods have been developed to estimate the joint distribution of bivariate recurrence times based on data of the first pair of censored bivariate recurrence times. These methods are efficient in the current model because recurrence times of higher orders are not used. Asymptotic properties of the estimators are established. Numerical studies demonstrate the estimator performs well with practical sample sizes. We apply the proposed method to a Denmark psychiatric case register data set for illustration of the methods and theory.

Renovación de destinos litorales maduros a partir del patrimonio cultural: Plan Costa Blanca Cultura

El destino turístico Costa Blanca se caracteriza por la existencia de una amplia oferta turística y por su situación privilegiada respecto a los mercados potenciales de demanda. En la actualidad, ambas características no son suficientes para garantizar la competitividad de este espacio; en un contexto turístico enormemente dinámico en el que la diversidad de elementos de atracción y la imagen del destino puede incidir en la decisión de viaje de los turistas. Por ello, ante la necesidad de acometer procesos de renovación del destino Costa Blanca que permitan garantizar la competitividad de la actividad en términos territoriales y económicos, se apuesta por el patrimonio cultural como uno de los argumentos que mayores posibilidades puede ofrecer desde el ámbito de la planificación del destino turístico para diseñar y ejecutar actuaciones encaminadas a la renovación del mismo. Así, la presente comunicación se basa en los principales resultados obtenidos en el Plan Costa Blanca Cultura, con el objetivo de analizar el grado de uso turístico del patrimonio cultural de la provincia de Alicante, para a partir de un diagnóstico previo, proponer estrategias y actuaciones encaminadas al diseño y gestión posterior de productos temáticos de naturaleza cultural. La metodología de trabajo se ha basado entre otras acciones, en la participación de los agentes turísticos y sociales, aspecto que ha llevado a la selección de las líneas de trabajo prioritarias basadas en temas que superarían la dicotomía entre litoral e interior otorgando al patrimonio un papel integrador del territorio, y a la propuesta de un modelo de gestión innovador en el destino Costa Blanca.

Total Progeny in a Subcritical Branching Process with two Types of Immigration

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60J80, 60F05

Ambiente de inovação no Laboratório de Inovação Tecnológica em Saúde – LAIS/UFRN: mapeamento, interações e gerenciamento

Innovation has become an increasingly central issue of great reputation, not only in literature but also in management practices, becoming a strategic issue for managers of organizations. Allied to this, there is a high degree of competitiveness on the market, which contributes to the complexity of decision making, since managers need to maintain a continuous cycle of renewal processes and products. Thus, market pressures for new alternatives encourage innovation within organizations as a foundation for culture change in pursuit of survival and increased competitiveness, making it essential to know the factors that promote the advancement of organizational environments targeted innovation. Confirming this view, Bouchikhi and Kimberly (2001) symbolically expressed the idea with two statements: (1) companies need to innovate to survive, otherwise they die; and (2) the wide recognition of this need, as well as the difficulty to encourage and support innovation and entrepreneurship in business, has generated a mini-industry research and consulting in management focused on these topics. This study is characterized as descriptive with qualitative and quantitative methods. As for the planning of the research, it was decided to bibliographical research and the case study. The research, developed here, is meant to examine the organizational environment of a laboratory focused on technological innovation in health, which is a reference in research and technology of Rio Grande do Norte, and ensure that it presents opportunities to develop innovations. Therefore, the technologies developed by the Laboratório de Inovação Tecnológica em Saúde - LAIS/UFRN were mapped and then a questionnaire with the stakeholders of LAIS/UFRN was applied. This questionnaire is closed and Likert scale. As a result, it follows that the dimensions 1, 6, 7 and 8 are the most influential to form an innovative environment at LAIS.

A space-time hybrid hourly rainfall model for derived flood frequency analysis

For derived flood frequency analysis based on hydrological modelling long continuous precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are needed. Often, the observation network with recording rainfall gauges is poor, especially regarding the limited length of the available rainfall time series. Stochastic precipitation synthesis is a good alternative either to extend or to regionalise rainfall series to provide adequate input for long-term rainfall-runoff modelling with subsequent estimation of design floods. Here, a new two step procedure for stochastic synthesis of continuous hourly space-time rainfall is proposed and tested for the extension of short observed precipitation time series. First, a single-site alternating renewal model is presented to simulate independent hourly precipitation time series for several locations. The alternating renewal model describes wet spell durations, dry spell durations and wet spell intensities using univariate frequency distributions separately for two seasons. The dependence between wet spell intensity and duration is accounted for by 2-copulas. For disaggregation of the wet spells into hourly intensities a predefined profile is used. In the second step a multi-site resampling procedure is applied on the synthetic point rainfall event series to reproduce the spatial dependence structure of rainfall. Resampling is carried out successively on all synthetic event series using simulated annealing with an objective function considering three bivariate spatial rainfall characteristics. In a case study synthetic precipitation is generated for some locations with short observation records in two mesoscale catchments of the Bode river basin located in northern Germany. The synthetic rainfall data are then applied for derived flood frequency analysis using the hydrological model HEC-HMS. The results show good performance in reproducing average and extreme rainfall characteristics as well as in reproducing observed flood frequencies. The presented model has the potential to be used for ungauged locations through regionalisation of the model parameters.

Revisión del vocabulario español-garífuna sobre salud

 Estudio de aspectos específicos referidos a procesos de renovación y actualización del garífuna, lengua de la familia arahuaca, hablada en territorios centroamericanos, especialmente de Honduras, Guatemala y Belice. Se centra en el análisis de sus contactos con el español, sobre todo del vocabulario sobre salud.  This study is about specific aspects of the renewal processes in the Garifuna language (belonging to the Arawak family) spoken in Central America, especially in Honduras, Guatemala and Belize. Its contact with Spanish is analyzed particularly regarding vocabulary related to health.

Modelling random fuzzy renewal reward processes

Shen, Q., Zhao, R., Tang, W. (2008). Modelling random fuzzy renewal reward processes. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 16 (5),1379-1385

Urban renewal, migration and memories : the affordances of place-based pedagogies for developing immigrant students’ literate repertoires

This paper reports on the new literacy demands in the middle years of schooling project in which the affordances of placed-based pedagogy are being explored through teacher inquiries and classroom-based design experiments. The school is located within a large-scale urban renewal project in which houses are being demolished and families relocated. The original school buildings have recently been demolished and replaced by a large ‘superschool’ which serves a bigger student population from a wider area. Drawing on both quantitative and qualitative data, the teachers reported that the language literacy learning of students (including a majority of students learning English as a second language) involved in the project exceeded their expectations. The project provided the motivation for them to develop their oral language repertoires, by involving them in processes such as conducting interviews with adults for their oral histories, through questioning the project manager in regular meetings, and through reporting to their peers and the wider community at school assemblies. At the same time students’ written and multimodal documentation of changes in the neighbourhood and the school grounds extended their literate and semiotic repertoires as they produced books, reports, films, powerpoints, visual designs and models of structures.

Re-framing infrastructure investment decision-making processes : a preliminary scoping study for urban flood risk management in Jakarta, Indonesia

Jakarta, Indonesia’s chronic housing shortage poses multiple challenges for contemporary policy-makers. While it may be in the city’s interest to increase the availability of housing, there is limited land to do so. Market pressures, in tandem with government’s desire for housing availability, demand consideration of even marginal lands, such as those within floodplains, for development. Increasingly, planning for a flood resilient Jakarta is complicated by a number of factors, including: the city is highly urbanized and land use data is limited; flood management is technically complex, creating potential barriers to engagement for both decision-makers and the public; inherent uncertainty exists throughout modelling efforts, central to management; and risk and liability for infrastructure investments is unclear. These obstacles require localized watershed-level participatory planning to address risks of flooding where possible and reduce the likelihood that informal settlements occur in areas of extreme risk. This paper presents a preliminary scoping study for determination of an effective participatory planning method to encourage more resilient development. First, the scoping study provides background relevant to the challenges faced in planning for contemporary Jakarta. Second, the study examines the current use of decision-support tools, such as Geographic Information Systems (GIS), in planning for Jakarta. Existing capacity in the use of GIS allows for consideration of the use of an emerging method of community consultation - Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) support systems infused with geospatial information - to aid in engagement with the public and improve decision-making outcomes. While these methods have been used in Australia to promote stakeholder engagement in urban intensification, the planned research will be an early introduction of the method to Indonesia. As a consequence of this intervention, it is expected that planning activities will result in a more resilient city, capable of engaging with disaster risk management in a more effective manner.

A micro perspective analysis of capability renewal through knowledge integration within product innovation projects

The aim of this paper is examine how firms renew their organisational capabilities based on micro organisational processes. Organisational capability development literature points to firms’ failure in capability renewal process. To overcome this inefficiency, it is proposed to integrate dynamic capability and ambidexterity perspectives by studying knowledge integration within product innovation. In this relation, applying micro perspective in studying technology diffusion within Iranian Auto industry revealed micro co-evolutionary relationships between knowledge integration within product innovation and capability development. Furthermore, based on near decomposability principals, the analysis suggested relationships among modularity of product architecture, modularity of organisational modularity and modularity of industry architecture in downstream and upstream value chain. Based on these micro-macro co evolutionary effects, capability development process underlying successful corporate entrepreneurship may be verified.

Study of the underlying electrochemistry of polycrystalline gold electrodes in aqueous solution and electrocatalysis by large amplitude Fourier transformed alternating current voltammetry

Polycrystalline gold electrodes of the kind that are routinely used in analysis and catalysis in aqueous media are often regarded as exhibiting relatively simple double-layer charging/discharging and monolayer oxide formation/ removal in the positive potential region. Application of the large amplitude Fourier transformed alternating current (FT-ac) voltammetric technique that allows the faradaic current contribution of fast electron-transfer processes to be emphasized in the higher harmonic components has revealed the presence of well-defined faradaic (premonolayer oxidation) processes at positive potentials in the double-layer region in acidic and basic media which are enhanced by electrochemical activation. These underlying quasi-reversible interfacial electron-transfer processes may mediate the course of electrocatalytic oxidation reactions of hydrazine, ethylene glycol, and glucose on gold electrodes in aqueous media. The observed responses support key assumptions associated with the incipient hydrous oxide adatom mediator (IHOAM) model of electrocatalysis.

Strategic renewal through design led innovation : findings from embedded practice

Strategic Renewal has been the subject of research in large organisations but has received relatively little attention in small and medium enterprises. Using case study examples of small and medium manufacturing firms, this paper presents the findings from a longitudinal action research project where participating companies explored design led innovation processes to find new ways to renew their businesses. Specifically our findings indicate that when designers act as innovation catalysts in embedded longitudinal action research, SMEs engage in strategic renewal, gain a deeper appreciation of their customers, become more aware of the value proposition of the company and engage in new practices to improve their competitive advantage.

Asymptotic behaviour of point processes with Markov-dependent intervals

This splitting techniques for MARKOV chains developed by NUMMELIN (1978a) and ATHREYA and NEY (1978b) are used to derive an imbedded renewal process in WOLD's point process with MARKOV-correlated intervals. This leads to a simple proof of renewal theorems for such processes. In particular, a key renewal theorem is proved, from which analogues to both BLACKWELL's and BREIMAN's forms of the renewal theorem can be deduced.

Alternating Starvation Of Dislocations During Plastic Yielding In Metallic Nanowires

Using molecular dynamics simulations, we show that the mechanical deformation behaviors of single-crystalline nickel nanowires are quite different from their bulk counterparts. Correlation between the obtained stress-strain curves and the visualized defect evolution during deformation processes clearly demonstrates that a sequence of complex dislocation slip events results in a state of dislocation starvation, involving the nucleation and propagation of dislocations until they finally escape from the wires, so that the wires deform elastically until new dislocations are generated. (C) 2008 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.