Can the change in the composition of the US GDP explain the Great Moderation? A test via oil price shocks

The paper investigates whether the growing GDP share of the services sector can contribute to explain the great moderation in the US. We identify and analyze three oil price shocks and use a SVAR analysis to measure their economic impact on the US economy at both the aggregate and the sectoral level. We find mixed support for the explanation of the great moderation in terms of shrinking oil shock volatilities and observe that increases (decreases) in oil shock volatilities are contrasted by a weakening (strengthening) in their transmission mechanism. Across sectors, services are the least affected by any oil shock. As the contribution of services to the GDP volatility increases over time, we conclude that a composition effect contributed to moderate the conditional volatility to oil shocks of the US GDP.

Sectoral Price Rigidity and Aggregate Dynamics

In this paper, we study the macroeconomic implications of sectoral heterogeneity and, in particular, heterogeneity in price setting, through the lens of a highly disaggregated multi-sector model. The model incorporates several realistic features and is estimated using a mix of aggregate and sectoral U.S. data. The frequencies of price changes implied by our estimates are remarkably consistent with those reported in micro-based studies, especially for non-sale prices. The model is used to study (i) the contribution of sectoral characteristics to the observed cross sectional heterogeneity in sectoral output and inflation responses to a monetary policy shock, (ii) the implications of sectoral price rigidity for aggregate output and inflation dynamics and for cost pass-through, and (iii) the role of sectoral shocks in explaining sectoral prices and quantities.

Cross-sectoral variation in the volatility of plant-level idiosyncratic shocks

We estimate the volatility of plant–level idiosyncratic shocks in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Our measure of volatility is the variation in Revenue Total Factor Productivity which is not explained by either industry– or economy–wide factors, or by establishments’ characteristics. Consistent with previous studies, we find that idiosyncratic shocks are much larger than aggregate random disturbances, accounting for about 80% of the overall uncertainty faced by plants. The extent of cross–sectoral variation in the volatility of shocks is remarkable. Plants in the most volatile sector are subject to about six times as much idiosyncratic uncertainty as plants in the least volatile. We provide evidence suggesting that idiosyncratic risk is higher in industries where the extent of creative destruction is likely to be greater.

Aggregate uncertainty, disappointment aversion and the business cycle

We investigate the eff ect of aggregate uncertainty shocks on real variables. More speci fically, we introduce a shock in the volatility of productivity in an RBC model with long-run volatility risk and preferences that exhibit generalised disappointment aversion. We find that, when combined with a negative productivity shock, a volatility shock leads to further decline in real variables, such as output, consumption, hours worked and investment. For instance, out of the 2% decrease in output as a result of both shocks, we attribute 0.25% to the e ffect of an increase in volatility. We also fi nd that this e ffect is the same as the one obtained in a model with Epstein-Zin- Weil preferences, but higher than that of a model with expected utility. Moreover, GDA preferences yield superior asset pricing results, when compared to both Epstein-Zin-Weil preferences and expected utility.

Exogenous shocks and misattribution of responsibility for economic performance: results from survey experiments

Recent models of economic voting assume that citizens can discount exogenous factors when assessing government's economic performance. Yet there is evidence that Latin American voters do not behave in such way, and attribute to presidents outcomes that are beyond their control. This paper presents three survey experiments designed to explore mechanisms that could potentially correct such misattribution, and therefore contribute to debiasing individual behavior towards government evaluation. Our results provide individual-level evidence of the misattribution found in aggregate studies of electorate behavior, and reinforce psychologist's skepticism towards prospects of mental decontamination, as we found very scant evidence that providing information, raising awareness, or increasing motivation to correct biases infuenced individual's evaluation of president's performance.

Social Impact of Mining Survey : Aggregate Results Queensland Communities

This is the final report from a study into the social impact of mining in Queensland.

Aggregate distance based clustering using Fibonacci Series -FIBCLUS

This paper proposes an innovative instance similarity based evaluation metric that reduces the search map for clustering to be performed. An aggregate global score is calculated for each instance using the novel idea of Fibonacci series. The use of Fibonacci numbers is able to separate the instances effectively and, in hence, the intra-cluster similarity is increased and the inter-cluster similarity is decreased during clustering. The proposed FIBCLUS algorithm is able to handle datasets with numerical, categorical and a mix of both types of attributes. Results obtained with FIBCLUS are compared with the results of existing algorithms such as k-means, x-means expected maximization and hierarchical algorithms that are widely used to cluster numeric, categorical and mix data types. Empirical analysis shows that FIBCLUS is able to produce better clustering solutions in terms of entropy, purity and F-score in comparison to the above described existing algorithms.

The economics of happiness : a lifetime perspective

The three studies in this thesis focus on happiness and age and seek to contribute to our understanding of happiness change over the lifetime. The first study contributes by offering an explanation for what was evolving to a ‘stylised fact’ in the economics literature, the U-shape of happiness in age. No U-shape is evident if one makes a visual inspection of the age happiness relationship in the German socio-economic panel data, and, it seems counter-intuitive that we just have to wait until we get old to be happy. Eliminating the very young, the very old, and the first timers from the analysis did not explain away regression results supporting the U-shape of happiness in age, but fixed effect analysis did. Analysis revealed found that reverse causality arising from time-invariant individual traits explained the U-shape of happiness in age in the German population, and the results were robust across six econometric methods. Robustness was added to the German fixed effect finding by replicating it with the Australian and the British socio-economic panel data sets. During analysis of the German data an unexpected finding emerged, an exceedingly large negative linear effect of age on happiness in fixed-effect regressions. There is a large self-reported happiness decline by those who remain in the German panel. A similar decline over time was not evident in the Australian or the British data. After testing away age, time and cohort effects, a time-in-panel effect was found. Germans who remain in the panel for longer progressively report lower levels of happiness. Because time-in-panel effects have not been included in happiness regression specifications, our estimates may be biased; perhaps some economics of the happiness studies, that used German panel data, need revisiting. The second study builds upon the fixed-effect finding of the first study and extends our view of lifetime happiness to a cohort little visited by economists, children. Initial analysis extends our view of lifetime happiness beyond adulthood and revealed a happiness decline in adolescent (15 to 23 year-old) Australians that is twice the size of the happiness decline we see in older Australians (75 to 86 yearolds), who we expect to be unhappy due to declining income, failing health and the onset of death. To resolve a difference of opinion in the literature as to whether childhood happiness decreases, increases, or remains flat in age; survey instruments and an Internet-based survey were developed and used to collect data from four hundred 9 to 14 year-old Australian children. Applying the data to a Model of Childhood Happiness revealed that the natural environment life-satisfaction domain factor did not have a significant effect on childhood happiness. However, the children’s school environment and interactions with friends life-satisfaction domain factors explained over half a steep decline in childhood happiness that is three times larger than what we see in older Australians. Adding personality to the model revealed what we expect to see with adults, extraverted children are happier, but unexpectedly, so are conscientious children. With the steep decline in the happiness of young Australians revealed and explanations offered, the third study builds on the time-invariant individual trait finding from the first study by applying the Australian panel data to an Aggregate Model of Average Happiness over the lifetime. The model’s independent variable is the stress that arises from the interaction between personality and the life event shocks that affect individuals and peers throughout their lives. Interestingly, a graphic depiction of the stress in age relationship reveals an inverse U-shape; an inverse U-shape that looks like the opposite of the U-shape of happiness in age we saw in the first study. The stress arising from life event shocks is found to explain much of the change in average happiness over a lifetime. With the policy recommendations of economists potentially invoking unexpected changes in our lives, the ensuing stress and resulting (un)happiness warrant consideration before economists make policy recommendations.

A multi-stage history for carbonaceous material in extraterrestrial chondritic porous aggregate W7029*A and a new cosmothermometer

A new set of primitive extraterrestrial materials collected in the Earth's stratosphere include Chondritic Porous Aggregates (CPA's) [1]. CPAs have a complex and variable mineralogy [1-3] that include 'organic compounds' [4,5] and poorly graphitised carbon (PGC)[6]. This study presents a continuation of our detailed Analytical Electron Microscope study on carbon-rich CPA W7029*A from the JSC Cosmic Dust Collection. This CPA is an uncontaminated sample that survived atmospheric entry without appreciable alteration [7] and which contains ~44% carbonaceous material. The carbonaceous composition of selected particles was confirmed by Electron Energy Loss Spectroscopy and Selected Area Electron Diffraction (SAED). Possible carbonaceous contaminants introduced by specimen preparation techniques are easily recognised from indigenous CPA carbon particles [8] and do not bias our interpretations.

Diagenesis in interplanetary dust - chondritic porous aggregate w7029-star-a

In previous Analytical Electron Microscope studies of extraterrestrial Chondritic Porous Aggregate (CPA) W7029* A, we have reported on the presence of layer silicates(Rietmeijer and Mackinnon, 1984a; Mackinnon and Rietmeijer, 1983) and metal oxides (Rietmeijer and Mackinnon, 1984a; Mackinnon and Rietmeijer, 1984). We present here a continuation ofthis detailed mineralogical study and propose a scenario which may account for the variety and types of phases observed in this CPA. At least 50% ofCPA W7029*A is carbonaceous material, primarily poorly graphitised carbon (POC) with morphologies similar to POC in acid residues of carbonaceous chondrites (Smith and Busek, 1981; Lumpkin, 1983). The basal spacing of graphite in CPA W7029*A ranges from 3.47-3.52 A and compares with doo, of graphite in the Allende residues (Smith and Buseck, 1981; Lumpkin, 1983). Low-temperature phases comprise - 20% of CPA W7029*A and include layer silicates, Bi,O" a-FeOOH(Rietmeijer and Mackinnon, 1984a; Mackinnon and Rietmeijer, 1983), BaSO.,.Ti.O, plates, pentlandite-violarite and bornite. Clusters of Mg-rich olivine and pyroxene make up - 12% of the aggregate...

Assessment of recycled concrete aggregate for road base and sub-base

Population increase and economic developments can lead to construction as well as demolition of infrastructures such as buildings, bridges, roads, etc and used concrete is the main waste product of them. Recycling of waste concrete to obtain the recycled concrete aggregates (RCA) for base and/or sub-base materials in road construction is a foremost application to be promoted to gain economical and sustainable benefits. As the mortar, bricks, glass and asphalt present in different constituents in RCA, it exhibits inconsistent properties and performance. In this study, six different types of RCA samples were subjected classification tests such as particle size distribution, plasticity, compaction test and California Bearing Ratio (CBR). Results were compared with those of the standard road materials used in Queensland, Australia and found that ‘RM1-100/RM3-0’ and ‘RM1-80/RM3-20’ samples are sitting in the margin of the minimum required specifications of base materials while others are lower than that.