Minimum carbon payment along an aridity gradient for dryland afforestation in non annex I countries with stochastic weather and prices

Recent findings demonstrate that trees in deserts are efficient carbon sinks. It remains however unknown whether the Clean Development Mechanism will accelerate the planting of trees in Non Annex I dryland countries. We estimated the price of carbon at which a farmer would be indifferent between his customary activity and the planting of trees to trade carbon credits, along an aridity gradient. Carbon yields were simulated by means of the CO2FIX v3.1 model for Pinus halepensis with its respective yield classes along the gradient (Arid – 100mm to Dry Sub Humid conditions – 900mm). Wheat and pasture yields were predicted on somewhat similar nitrogen-based quadratic models, using 30 years of weather data to simulate moisture stress. Stochastic production, input and output prices were afterwards simulated on a Monte Carlo matrix. Results show that, despite the high levels of carbon uptake, carbon trading by afforesting is unprofitable anywhere along the gradient. Indeed, the price of carbon would have to raise unrealistically high, and the certification costs would have to drop significantly, to make the Clean Development Mechanism worthwhile for non annex I dryland countries farmers. From a government agency's point of view the Clean Development Mechanism is attractive. However, such agencies will find it difficult to demonstrate “additionality”, even if the rule may be somewhat flexible. Based on these findings, we will further discuss why the Clean Development Mechanism, a supposedly pro-poor instrument, fails to assist farmers in Non Annex I dryland countries living at minimum subsistence level.

Early-Holocene afforestation processes in the lower subalpine belt of the Central Swiss Alps as inferred from macrofossil and pollen records

To reconstruct the vegetation history of the Upper Engadine, continuous sediment cores covering the past 11 800 years from Lej da Champfer and Lej da San Murezzan (Upper Engadine Valley, c. 1800 m a.s.l., southeastern Switzerland) have been analysed for pollen and plant macrofossils. The chronologies of the cores are based on 16 and 22 radiocarbon dates, respectively. The palaeobotanical records of both lakes are in agreement for the Holocene, but remarkable differences exist between the sites during the period 11 100 to 10 500 cal. BP, when Lej da Champfer was affected by re-sedimentation processes. Macrofossil data suggest that Holocene afforestation began at around 11400 cal. BP. A climatic deterioration, the Preboreal Oscillation, stopped and subsequently delayed the establishment of trees until c. 11000 cal. BP, when first Betula, then Pinus sylvestrislmugo, then Larix 300 years later, and finally Pinus cembra expanded within the lake catchment. Treeline was at c. 1500 m during the Younger Dryas (12 542- 11 550 cal. BP) in the Central Alps. Our results, along with other macrofossil studies from the Alps, suggest a nearly simultaneous afforestation (e.g., by Pinus sylvestris in the lower subalpine belt) between 1500 and 2340 m a.s.l. at around 11 400 to 11 300 cal. BP. We suggest that forest-limit species (e.g., Pinus cembra, Larix decidua) could expand faster at today's treeline (c. 2350 m a.s.l.), than 550 m lower. Earlier expansions at higher altitudes probably resulted from reduced competition with low-altitude trees (e.g. Pinus sylvestris) and herbaceous species. Comparison with other proxies such as oxygen isotopes, residual A14C, glacier fluctuations, and alpine climatic cooling phases suggests climatic sensitivity of vegetation during the early Holocene.

Available water modifications by topsoil treatments under mediterranean semiarid conditions: afforestation plan

During dry periods in the Mediterranean area, the lack of water entering the soil matrix reduces organic contribu- tions to the soil. These processes lead to reduced soil fertility and soil vegetation recovery which creates a positive feedback process that can lead to desertification. Restoration of native vegetation is the most effective way to regenerate soil health, and control runoff and sediment yield. In Mediterranean areas, after a forestry proposal, it is highly common to register a significant number of losses for the saplings that have been introduced due to the lack of rainfall. When no vegetation is established, organic amendments can be used to rapidly protect the soil surface against the erosive forces of rain and runoff. In this study we investigated the hydrological effects of five soil treatments in relation to the temporal vari- ability of the available water for plants. Five amendments were applied in an experimental set of plots: straw mulching; mulch with chipped branches of Aleppo Pine (Pinus halepensis L.); TerraCotten hydroabsobent polymers; sewage sludge; sheep manure and control. Plots were afforested following the same spatial pattern, and amendments were mixed with the soil at the rate 10 Mg ha-1. In control plots, during June, July, August and September, soils were registered below the wilting point, and therefore, in the area of water unusable by plants. These months were coinciding with the summer mediter- ranean drought. This fact justifies the high mortality found on plants after the seeding plan. Similarly, soils have never exceeded the field capacity value measured for control plots. Conversely, in the straw and pinus mulch, soils were above the wilting point during a longer time than in control plots. Thus, the soil moisture only has stayed below the 4.2 pF suction in July, July and August. Regarding the amount of water available was also higher, especially in the months of December, January and February. However, the field capacity value measured has not showed any differences regarding the control. For these treatments, the survival sapling rates measured were the highest. Sludge, manure and polymers showed a moisture retention capacity slightly more limited than straw and pinus mulch. Likewise, it has been found that the area of usable water by plants was also lower, especially during the months of January and February. This situation is especially sharpened in plots amended with manure. In this treatment, the upper part of the soil profile was below the wilting point for six months a year (from April to August). For this treatment, the survival sapling rates measured were the lowest. In conclusion, from a land management standpoint, the pinus and straw mulch treatments have been shown as effective methods reducing water stress for plants. In this research, mulching has been proved as a significant method to reduce the mortality sapling rates during the mediterranean summer drought.

Available water modifications by topsoil treatments under mediterranean semiarid conditions: afforestation plan

During dry periods in the Mediterranean area, the lack of water entering the soil matrix reduces organic contribu- tions to the soil. These processes lead to reduced soil fertility and soil vegetation recovery which creates a positive feedback process that can lead to desertification. Restoration of native vegetation is the most effective way to regenerate soil health, and control runoff and sediment yield. In Mediterranean areas, after a forestry proposal, it is highly common to register a significant number of losses for the saplings that have been introduced due to the lack of rainfall. When no vegetation is established, organic amendments can be used to rapidly protect the soil surface against the erosive forces of rain and runoff. In this study we investigated the hydrological effects of five soil treatments in relation to the temporal vari- ability of the available water for plants. Five amendments were applied in an experimental set of plots: straw mulching; mulch with chipped branches of Aleppo Pine (Pinus halepensis L.); TerraCotten hydroabsobent polymers; sewage sludge; sheep manure and control. Plots were afforested following the same spatial pattern, and amendments were mixed with the soil at the rate 10 Mg ha-1. In control plots, during June, July, August and September, soils were registered below the wilting point, and therefore, in the area of water unusable by plants. These months were coinciding with the summer mediter- ranean drought. This fact justifies the high mortality found on plants after the seeding plan. Similarly, soils have never exceeded the field capacity value measured for control plots. Conversely, in the straw and pinus mulch, soils were above the wilting point during a longer time than in control plots. Thus, the soil moisture only has stayed below the 4.2 pF suction in July, July and August. Regarding the amount of water available was also higher, especially in the months of December, January and February. However, the field capacity value measured has not showed any differences regarding the control. For these treatments, the survival sapling rates measured were the highest. Sludge, manure and polymers showed a moisture retention capacity slightly more limited than straw and pinus mulch. Likewise, it has been found that the area of usable water by plants was also lower, especially during the months of January and February. This situation is especially sharpened in plots amended with manure. In this treatment, the upper part of the soil profile was below the wilting point for six months a year (from April to August). For this treatment, the survival sapling rates measured were the lowest. In conclusion, from a land management standpoint, the pinus and straw mulch treatments have been shown as effective methods reducing water stress for plants. In this research, mulching has been proved as a significant method to reduce the mortality sapling rates during the mediterranean summer drought.

Effect of organic amendments on the afforestation performance of plant species on degraded semiarid conditions

Vegetation plays a fundamental role in soil conservation, so it is common to consider an increase in vegetation cover as one of the techniques to mitigate the effects of desertification in Mediterranean forest environments. There are two factors limiting the establishment and growth of seedlings in dry environments: (i) an excessive radiation and, (ii) the limited availability of water during the summer drought. During an afforestation plan, soil preparation is always necessary to reduce sapling mortality. The goal of this study was to analyze the effect of various organic amendments on soil according to chemical and hydrological properties, and to assess the effects of these parameters on an afforestal proposal under Mediterranean climate conditions. Five amendments were applied in an experimental set of plots: straw mulching (SM); mulch with chipped branches of Aleppo Pine (PM); TerraCotten hydroabsobent polymers (HP); sewage sludge (RU); sheep manure (SH) and control (C). Plots were afforested following the same spatial pattern, and amendments were mixed with the soil at the rate 10 Mg ha -1 . Under bare soil conditions (C), most of mortalities occurred during the summer period of the first year. A substantial positive effect of SM, PM and HP on the survival rates have been clearly observed. Conversely, when the soil was amended with SH, the survival rate quickly decreased or remained more or less constant regarding to C. In this study, the lack of differences on chemical properties indicates that there may exist other reasons to justify the differences that were found in the pattern of vegetation. However, regarding to the hydrological properties some differences have been found. In C, soils were registered below the wilting point during 4 months a year, and therefore, in the area of water unusable by plants. These months were coinciding with the summer Mediterranean drought and can justify the high mortality found on plants. Conversely, in SM, PM and HP, soil moisture remained below the wilting point less period than C and, the plant available water was also higher. In these treatments, the survival sapling rates measured were the highest. SH showed water holding capacity slightly more limited than C. For this treatment, the survival sapling rates measured were the lowest. In conclusion, from a land management standpoint, the PM, SM and HP have been proved as a significant method to reduce sapling mortality rates during the Mediterranean summer drought.

Effects of wetting frequency and afforestation on carbon, nitrogen and the microbial community in soil

Afforestation of agricultural land is increasing, partly because it is an important biological method for reducing the concentration of atmospheric CO2 and potentially mitigating climate change. Rainfall patterns are changing and prolonged dry periods are predicted for many regions of the world, including southern Australia. To accurately predict land-use change potential for mitigating climate change, we need to have a better understanding of how changes in land-use (i.e. afforestation of pastures) may change the soils response to prolonged dry periods. We present results of an incubation study characterising C and N dynamics and the microbial community composition in soil collected from two tree plantings and their adjacent pastures under a baseline and reduced frequency. While the concentration of soil C was similar in pasture and tree planting soils, heterotrophic respiration was significantly lower in soil from pastures than tree plantings. Although there was little difference in the composition of the soil microbial community among any of the soils or treatments, differences in N cycling could indicate a difference in microbial activity, which may explain the differences in heterotrophic respiration between pastures and tree plantings. Soils from pastures and tree plantings responded similarly to a reduction in wetting frequency, with a decrease in microbial biomass (measured as total PLFA), and a similar reduction in heterotrophic respiration from the soil. This suggests that the responses to changes in future wetting cycles may be less dependent on land-use type than expected.

Carbon sequestration versus bioenergy: A case study from South India exploring the relative land-use efficiency of two options for climate change mitigation

This case study has been carried out as a comparison between two different land-use strategies for climate change mitigation, with possible application within the Clean Development Mechanisms. The benefits of afforestation for carbon sequestration versus for bioenergy production are compared in the context of development planning to meet increasing domestic and agricultural demand for electricity in Hosahalli village, Karnataka, India. One option is to increase the local biomass based electricity generation, requiring an increased biomass plantation area. This option is compared with fossil based electricity generation where the area is instead used for producing wood for non-energy purposes while also sequestering carbon in the soil and standing biomass. The different options have been assessed using the PRO-COMAP model. The ranking of the different options varies depending on the system boundaries and time period. Results indicate that, in the short term (30 years) perspective, the mitigation potential of the long rotation plantation is largest, followed by the short rotation plantation delivering wood for energy. The bioenergy option is however preferred if a long-term view is taken. Short rotation forests delivering wood for short-lived non-energy products have the smallest mitigation potential, unless a large share of the wood products are used for energy purposes (replacing fossil fuels) after having served their initial purpose. If managed in a sustainable manner all of these strategies can contribute to the improvement of the social and environmental situation of the local community. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change and agriculture: theory and application of mitigation policies

Agriculture’s contribution to climate change is controversial as it is a significant source of greenhouse gases but also a sink of carbon. Hence its economic and technological potential to mitigate climate change have been argued to be noteworthy. However, social profitability of emission mitigation is a result from factors among emission reductions such as surface water quality impact or profit from production. Consequently, to value comprehensive results of agricultural climate emission mitigation practices, these co-effects to environment and economics should be taken into account. The objective of this thesis was to develop an integrated economic and ecological model to analyse the social welfare of crop cultivation in Finland on distinctive cultivation technologies, conventional tillage and conservation tillage (no-till). Further, we ask whether it would be privately or socially profitable to allocate some of barley cultivation for alternative land use, such as green set-aside or afforestation, when production costs, GHG’s and water quality impacts are taken into account. In the theoretical framework we depict the optimal input use and land allocation choices in terms of environmental impacts and profit from production and derive the optimal tax and payment policies for climate and water quality friendly land allocation. The empirical application of the model uses Finnish data about production cost and profit structure and environmental impacts. According to our results, given emission mitigation practices are not self-evidently beneficial for farmers or society. On the contrary, in some cases alternative land allocation could even reduce social welfare, profiting conventional crop cultivation. This is the case regarding mineral soils such as clay and silt soils. On organic agricultural soils, climate mitigation practices, in this case afforestation and green fallow give more promising results, decreasing climate emissions and nutrient runoff to water systems. No-till technology does not seem to profit climate mitigation although it does decrease other environmental impacts. Nevertheless, the data behind climate emission mitigation practices impact to production and climate is limited and partly contradictory. More specific experiment studies on interaction of emission mitigation practices and environment would be needed. Further study would be important. Particularly area specific production and environmental factors and also food security and safety and socio-economic impacts should be taken into account.

Assessing the mitigation potential of forestry activities in a changing climate: A case study for Karnataka

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol allows Afforestation and Reforestation (A/R) projects as mitigation activities to offset the CO2 in the atmosphere whilst simultaneously seeking to ensure sustainable development for the host country. The Kyoto Protocol was ratified by the Government of India in August 2002 and one of India's objectives in acceding to the Protocol was to fulfil the prerequisites for implementation of projects under the CDM in accordance with national sustainable priorities. The objective of this paper is to assess the effectiveness of using large-scale forestry projects under the CDM in achieving its twin goals using Karnataka State as a case study. The Generalized Comprehensive Mitigation Assessment Process (GCOMAP) Model is used to observe the effect of varying carbon prices on the land available for A/R projects. The model is coupled with outputs from the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) Dynamic Global Vegetation Model to incorporate the impacts of temperature rise due to climate change under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2, A1B and B1. With rising temperatures and CO2, vegetation productivity is increased under A2 and A1B scenarios and reduced under B1. Results indicate that higher carbon price paths produce higher gains in carbon credits and accelerate the rate at which available land hits maximum capacity thus acting as either an incentive or disincentive for landowners to commit their lands to forestry mitigation projects. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

CO2-fertilization and potential future terrestrial carbon uptake in India

There is huge knowledge gap in our understanding of many terrestrial carbon cycle processes. In this paper, we investigate the bounds on terrestrial carbon uptake over India that arises solely due to CO (2) -fertilization. For this purpose, we use a terrestrial carbon cycle model and consider two extreme scenarios: unlimited CO2-fertilization is allowed for the terrestrial vegetation with CO2 concentration level at 735 ppm in one case, and CO2-fertilization is capped at year 1975 levels for another simulation. Our simulations show that, under equilibrium conditions, modeled carbon stocks in natural potential vegetation increase by 17 Gt-C with unlimited fertilization for CO2 levels and climate change corresponding to the end of 21st century but they decline by 5.5 Gt-C if fertilization is limited at 1975 levels of CO2 concentration. The carbon stock changes are dominated by forests. The area covered by natural potential forests increases by about 36% in the unlimited fertilization case but decreases by 15% in the fertilization-capped case. Thus, the assumption regarding CO2-fertilization has the potential to alter the sign of terrestrial carbon uptake over India. Our model simulations also imply that the maximum potential terrestrial sequestration over India, under equilibrium conditions and best case scenario of unlimited CO2-fertilization, is only 18% of the 21st century SRES A2 scenarios emissions from India. The limited uptake potential of the natural potential vegetation suggests that reduction of CO2 emissions and afforestation programs should be top priorities.

Forest policies and programs affecting vulnerability and adaptation to climate change

Due to large scale afforestation programs and forest conservation legislations, India's total forest area seems to have stabilized or even increased. In spite of such efforts, forest fragmentation and degradation continues, with forests being subject to increased pressure due to anthropogenic factors. Such fragmentation and degradation is leading to the forest cover to change from very dense to moderately dense and open forest and 253 km(2) of very dense forest has been converted to moderately dense forest, open forest, scrub and non-forest (during 2005-2007). Similarly, there has been a degradation of 4,120 km(2) of moderately dense forest to open forest, scrub and non-forest resulting in a net loss of 936 km(2) of moderately dense forest. Additionally, 4,335 km(2) of open forest have degraded to scrub and non-forest. Coupled with pressure due to anthropogenic factors, climate change is likely to be an added stress on forests. Forest sector programs and policies are major factors that determine the status of forests and potentially resilience to projected impacts of climate change. An attempt is made to review the forest policies and programs and their implications for the status of forests and for vulnerability of forests to projected climate change. The study concludes that forest conservation and development policies and programs need to be oriented to incorporate climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation.

Albedo enhancement over land to counteract global warming: impacts on hydrological cycle

A recent modelling study has shown that precipitation and runoff over land would increase when the reflectivity of marine clouds is increased to counter global warming. This implies that large scale albedo enhancement over land could lead to a decrease in runoff over land. In this study, we perform simulations using NCAR CAM3.1 that have implications for Solar Radiation Management geoengineering schemes that increase the albedo over land. We find that an increase in reflectivity over land that mitigates the global mean warming from a doubling of CO2 leads to a large residual warming in the southern hemisphere and cooling in the northern hemisphere since most of the land is located in northern hemisphere. Precipitation and runoff over land decrease by 13.4 and 22.3%, respectively, because of a large residual sinking motion over land triggered by albedo enhancement over land. Soil water content also declines when albedo over land is enhanced. The simulated magnitude of hydrological changes over land are much larger when compared to changes over oceans in the recent marine cloud albedo enhancement study since the radiative forcing over land needed (-8.2 W m(-2)) to counter global mean radiative forcing from a doubling of CO2 (3.3 W m(-2)) is approximately twice the forcing needed over the oceans (-4.2 W m(-2)). Our results imply that albedo enhancement over oceans produce climates closer to the unperturbed climate state than do albedo changes on land when the consequences on land hydrology are considered. Our study also has important implications for any intentional or unintentional large scale changes in land surface albedo such as deforestation/afforestation/reforestation, air pollution, and desert and urban albedo modification.