Four-dimensional variational assimilation of ozone profiles from the Microwave Limb Sounder on the Aura satellite

Ozone profiles from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) onboard the Aura satellite of the NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) were experimentally added to the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) four-dimensional variational (4D-var) data assimilation system of version CY30R1, in which total ozone columns from Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY) onboard the Envisat satellite and partial profiles from the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV/2) instrument onboard the NOAA-16 satellite have been operationally assimilated. As shown by results for the autumn of 2005, additional constraints from MLS data significantly improved the agreement of the analyzed ozone fields with independent observations throughout most of the stratosphere, owing to the daily near-global coverage and good vertical resolution of MLS observations. The largest impacts were seen in the middle and lower stratosphere, where model deficiencies could not be effectively corrected by the operational observations without the additional information on the ozone vertical distribution provided by MLS. Even in the upper stratosphere, where ozone concentrations are mainly determined by rapid chemical processes, dense and vertically resolved MLS data helped reduce the biases related to model deficiencies. These improvements resulted in a more realistic and consistent description of spatial and temporal variations in stratospheric ozone, as demonstrated by cases in the dynamically and chemically active regions. However, combined assimilation of the often discrepant ozone observations might lead to underestimation of tropospheric ozone. In addition, model deficiencies induced large biases in the upper stratosphere in the medium-range (5-day) ozone forecasts.

Infrared filters and dichroics for the advanced along track scanning radiometer

The design and manufacture of the band-defining filters and their associated dichroic beam splitter for the 11- and the 12-µm infrared channels of the advanced along-track scanning radiometer are described. The filter requirements that have led to the choice of coating designs, coating materials, disposition of coatings, and effects of polarization are discussed. Overall spectral throughputs of the filter and dichroic interaction for the two channels are also presented.

Cloud clearing techniques over land for land surface temperature retrieval from the Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer

We present five new cloud detection algorithms over land based on dynamic threshold or Bayesian techniques, applicable to the Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) instrument and compare these with the standard threshold based SADIST cloud detection scheme. We use a manually classified dataset as a reference to assess algorithm performance and quantify the impact of each cloud detection scheme on land surface temperature (LST) retrieval. The use of probabilistic Bayesian cloud detection methods improves algorithm true skill scores by 8-9 % over SADIST (maximum score of 77.93 % compared to 69.27 %). We present an assessment of the impact of imperfect cloud masking, in relation to the reference cloud mask, on the retrieved AATSR LST imposing a 2 K tolerance over a 3x3 pixel domain. We find an increase of 5-7 % in the observations falling within this tolerance when using Bayesian methods (maximum of 92.02 % compared to 85.69 %). We also demonstrate that the use of dynamic thresholds in the tests employed by SADIST can significantly improve performance, applicable to cloud-test data to provided by the Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR) due to be launched on the Sentinel 3 mission (estimated 2014).

An observing system simulation experiment for climate monitoring with GNSS radio occulation data: setup and testbed study

The long-term stability, high accuracy, all-weather capability, high vertical resolution, and global coverage of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) suggests it as a promising tool for global monitoring of atmospheric temperature change. With the aim to investigate and quantify how well a GNSS RO observing system is able to detect climate trends, we are currently performing an (climate) observing system simulation experiment over the 25-year period 2001 to 2025, which involves quasi-realistic modeling of the neutral atmosphere and the ionosphere. We carried out two climate simulations with the general circulation model MAECHAM5 (Middle Atmosphere European Centre/Hamburg Model Version 5) of the MPI-M Hamburg, covering the period 2001–2025: One control run with natural variability only and one run also including anthropogenic forcings due to greenhouse gases, sulfate aerosols, and tropospheric ozone. On the basis of this, we perform quasi-realistic simulations of RO observables for a small GNSS receiver constellation (six satellites), state-of-the-art data processing for atmospheric profiles retrieval, and a statistical analysis of temperature trends in both the “observed” climatology and the “true” climatology. Here we describe the setup of the experiment and results from a test bed study conducted to obtain a basic set of realistic estimates of observational errors (instrument- and retrieval processing-related errors) and sampling errors (due to spatial-temporal undersampling). The test bed results, obtained for a typical summer season and compared to the climatic 2001–2025 trends from the MAECHAM5 simulation including anthropogenic forcing, were found encouraging for performing the full 25-year experiment. They indicated that observational and sampling errors (both contributing about 0.2 K) are consistent with recent estimates of these errors from real RO data and that they should be sufficiently small for monitoring expected temperature trends in the global atmosphere over the next 10 to 20 years in most regions of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). Inspection of the MAECHAM5 trends in different RO-accessible atmospheric parameters (microwave refractivity and pressure/geopotential height in addition to temperature) indicates complementary climate change sensitivity in different regions of the UTLS so that optimized climate monitoring shall combine information from all climatic key variables retrievable from GNSS RO data.

Independent uncertainty estimates for coefficient based sea surface temperature retrieval from the Along-Trck Scanning Radiometer instruments

We establish a methodology for calculating uncertainties in sea surface temperature estimates from coefficient based satellite retrievals. The uncertainty estimates are derived independently of in-situ data. This enables validation of both the retrieved SSTs and their uncertainty estimate using in-situ data records. The total uncertainty budget is comprised of a number of components, arising from uncorrelated (eg. noise), locally systematic (eg. atmospheric), large scale systematic and sampling effects (for gridded products). The importance of distinguishing these components arises in propagating uncertainty across spatio-temporal scales. We apply the method to SST data retrieved from the Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) and validate the results for two different SST retrieval algorithms, both at a per pixel level and for gridded data. We find good agreement between our estimated uncertainties and validation data. This approach to calculating uncertainties in SST retrievals has a wider application to data from other instruments and retrieval of other geophysical variables.

Assessment of relationships between precipitation and satellite derived vegetation condition in South Australia

The normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) has evolved as a primary tool for monitoring continental-scale vegetation changes and interpreting the impact of short to long-term climatic events on the biosphere. The objective of this research was to assess the nature of relationships between precipitation and vegetation condition, as measured by the satellite-derived NDVI within South Australia. The correlation, timing and magnitude of the NDVI response to precipitation were examined for different vegetation formations within the State (forest, scrubland, shrubland, woodland and grassland). Results from this study indicate that there are strong relationships between precipitation and NDVI both spatially and temporally within South Australia. Differences in the timing of the NDVI response to precipitation were evident among the five vegetation formations. The most significant relationship between rainfall and NDVI was within the forest formation. Negative correlations between NDVI and precipitation events indicated that vegetation green-up is a result of seasonal patterns in precipitation. Spatial patterns in the average NDVI over the study period closely resembled the boundaries of the five classified vegetation formations within South Australia. Spatial variability within the NDVI data set over the study period differed greatly between and within the vegetation formations examined depending on the location within the state. ACRONYMS AVHRR Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer ENVSAEnvironments of South Australia EOS Terra-Earth Observing System EVIEnhanced Vegetation Index MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer MVC Maximum Value Composite NDVINormalised Difference Vegetation Index NIRNear Infra-Red NOAANational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration SPOT Systeme Pour l’Observation de la Terre. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sensitivity of the ERA40 reanalysis to the observing system: determination of the global atmospheric circulation from reduced observations

The impact of selected observing systems on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr reanalysis (ERA40) is explored by mimicking observational networks of the past. This is accomplished by systematically removing observations from the present observational data base used by ERA40. The observing systems considered are a surface-based system typical of the period prior to 1945/50, obtained by only retaining the surface observations, a terrestrial-based system typical of the period 1950-1979, obtained by removing all space-based observations, and finally a space-based system, obtained by removing all terrestrial observations except those for surface pressure. Experiments using these different observing systems have been limited to seasonal periods selected from the last 10 yr of ERA40. The results show that the surface-based system has severe limitations in reconstructing the atmospheric state of the upper troposphere and stratosphere. The terrestrial system has major limitations in generating the circulation of the Southern Hemisphere with considerable errors in the position and intensity of individual weather systems. The space-based system is able to analyse the larger-scale aspects of the global atmosphere almost as well as the present observing system but performs less well in analysing the smaller-scale aspects as represented by the vorticity field. Here, terrestrial data such as radiosondes and aircraft observations are of paramount importance. The terrestrial system in the form of a limited number of radiosondes in the tropics is also required to analyse the quasi-biennial oscillation phenomenon in a proper way. The results also show the dominance of the satellite observing system in the Southern Hemisphere. These results all indicate that care is required in using current reanalyses in climate studies due to the large inhomogeneity of the available observations, in particular in time.

The predictability of extratropical storm tracks and the sensitivity of their prediction to the observing system

A new method for assessing forecast skill and predictability that involves the identification and tracking of extratropical cyclones has been developed and implemented to obtain detailed information about the prediction of cyclones that cannot be obtained from more conventional analysis methodologies. The cyclones were identified and tracked along the forecast trajectories, and statistics were generated to determine the rate at which the position and intensity of the forecasted storms diverge from the analyzed tracks as a function of forecast lead time. The results show a higher level of skill in predicting the position of extratropical cyclones than the intensity. They also show that there is potential to improve the skill in predicting the position by 1 - 1.5 days and the intensity by 2 - 3 days, via improvements to the forecast model. Further analysis shows that forecasted storms move at a slower speed than analyzed storms on average and that there is a larger error in the predicted amplitudes of intense storms than the weaker storms. The results also show that some storms can be predicted up to 3 days before they are identified as an 850-hPa vorticity center in the analyses. In general, the results show a higher level of skill in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) than the Southern Hemisphere (SH); however, the rapid growth of NH winter storms is not very well predicted. The impact that observations of different types have on the prediction of the extratropical cyclones has also been explored, using forecasts integrated from analyses that were constructed from reduced observing systems. A terrestrial, satellite, and surface-based system were investigated and the results showed that the predictive skill of the terrestrial system was superior to the satellite system in the NH. Further analysis showed that the satellite system was not very good at predicting the growth of the storms. In the SH the terrestrial system has significantly less skill than the satellite system, highlighting the dominance of satellite observations in this hemisphere. The surface system has very poor predictive skill in both hemispheres.

An observing system simulation experiment to evaluate the scientific merit of wind and ozone measurements from the future SWIFT instrument

(from author) One of the first papers in the peer-review literature to discuss an OSSE to evaluate future wind observations in the stratosphere. Provides key evidence to justify the construction of the SWIFT instrument (currently planned to be built by the Canadian Space Agency for launch on ~ 2010).

Zero, minimum and maximum relative radial acceleration for planar formation flight dynamics near triangular libration points in the Earth-Moon system

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Chaotic Dynamics in a Low-Energy Transfer Strategy to the Equilateral Equilibrium Points in the Earth-Moon System

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Development of the optimal estimation method for inversion of stratospheric emission spectra and validation of HNO3 profiles

This doctoral thesis focuses on ground-based measurements of stratospheric nitric acid (HNO3)concentrations obtained by means of the Ground-Based Millimeter-wave Spectrometer (GBMS). Pressure broadened HNO3 emission spectra are analyzed using a new inversion algorithm developed as part of this thesis work and the retrieved vertical profiles are extensively compared to satellite-based data. This comparison effort I carried out has a key role in establishing a long-term (1991-2010), global data record of stratospheric HNO3, with an expected impact on studies concerning ozone decline and recovery. The first part of this work is focused on the development of an ad hoc version of the Optimal Estimation Method (Rodgers, 2000) in order to retrieve HNO3 spectra observed by means of GBMS. I also performed a comparison between HNO3 vertical profiles retrieved with the OEM and those obtained with the old iterative Matrix Inversion method. Results show no significant differences in retrieved profiles and error estimates, with the OEM providing however additional information needed to better characterize the retrievals. A final section of this first part of the work is dedicated to a brief review on the application of the OEM to other trace gases observed by GBMS, namely O3 and N2O. The second part of this study deals with the validation of HNO3 profiles obtained with the new inversion method. The first step has been the validation of GBMS measurements of tropospheric opacity, which is a necessary tool in the calibration of any GBMS spectra. This was achieved by means of comparisons among correlative measurements of water vapor column content (or Precipitable Water Vapor, PWV) since, in the spectral region observed by GBMS, the tropospheric opacity is almost entirely due to water vapor absorption. In particular, I compared GBMS PWV measurements collected during the primary field campaign of the ECOWAR project (Bhawar et al., 2008) with simultaneous PWV observations obtained with Vaisala RS92k radiosondes, a Raman lidar, and an IR Fourier transform spectrometer. I found that GBMS PWV measurements are in good agreement with the other three data sets exhibiting a mean difference between observations of ~9%. After this initial validation, GBMS HNO3 retrievals have been compared to two sets of satellite data produced by the two NASA/JPL Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) experiments (aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) from 1991 to 1999, and on the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura mission from 2004 to date). This part of my thesis is inserted in GOZCARDS (Global Ozone Chemistry and Related Trace gas Data Records for the Stratosphere), a multi-year project, aimed at developing a long-term data record of stratospheric constituents relevant to the issues of ozone decline and expected recovery. This data record will be based mainly on satellite-derived measurements but ground-based observations will be pivotal for assessing offsets between satellite data sets. Since the GBMS has been operated for more than 15 years, its nitric acid data record offers a unique opportunity for cross-calibrating HNO3 measurements from the two MLS experiments. I compare GBMS HNO3 measurements obtained from the Italian Alpine station of Testa Grigia (45.9° N, 7.7° E, elev. 3500 m), during the period February 2004 - March 2007, and from Thule Air Base, Greenland (76.5°N 68.8°W), during polar winter 2008/09, and Aura MLS observations. A similar intercomparison is made between UARS MLS HNO3 measurements with those carried out from the GBMS at South Pole, Antarctica (90°S), during the most part of 1993 and 1995. I assess systematic differences between GBMS and both UARS and Aura HNO3 data sets at seven potential temperature levels. Results show that, except for measurements carried out at Thule, ground based and satellite data sets are consistent within the errors, at all potential temperature levels.