971 resultados para Additive hazards models
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Background and Purpose-The goal of the present study was to identify risk factors for vascular disease in the elderly. Methods-We conducted a prospective study of control subjects from a population-based study of stroke in Perth, Western Australia, that was completed in 1989 to 1990 and used record linkage and a survey of survivors to identify deaths and nonfatal vascular events. Data validated through reference to medical records were analyzed with the use of Cox proportional hazards models. Results-Follow-up for the 931 subjects was 88% complete. By June 24, 1994, 198 (24%) of the subjects had died (96 from vascular disease), and there had been 45 nonfatal strokes or myocardial infarctions. The hazard ratio for diabetes exceeded 2.0 for all end points, whereas the consumption of meat >4 times weekly was associated with a reduction in risk of less than or equal to 30%. In most models, female sex and consumption of alcohol were associated with reduced risks, whereas previous myocardial infarction was linked to an increase in risk. Conclusions-There are only limited associations between lifestyle and major vascular illness in old age. Effective health promotion activities in early and middle life may be the key to a longer and healthier old age.
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Background: The presence of coronary artery calcium (CAC) is an independent marker of increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and mortality. However, the predictive value of thoracic aorta calcification (TAC), which can be additionally identified without further scanning during assessment of CAC, is unknown. Methods: We followed a cohort of 8401 asymptomatic individuals (mean age: 53 +/- 10 years, 69% men) undergoing cardiac risk factor evaluation and TAC and CAC testing with electron beam computed tomography. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict all-cause mortality based on the presence of TAC. Results: During a median follow-up period of 5 years, 124 (1.5%) deaths were observed. Overall survival was 96.9% and 98.9% for those with and without detectable TAC, respectively (p < 0.0001). Compared to those with no TAC, the hazard ratio for mortality in the presence of TAC was 3.25 (95% CI: 2.28-4.65, p < 0.0001) in unadjusted analysis. After adjusting for age, gender, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, smoking and family history of premature coronary artery disease, and presence of CAC the relationship remained robust (HR 1.61, 95% CI: 1.10-2.27, p = 0.015). Likelihood ratio chi(2) statistics demonstrated that the addition of TAC contributed significantly in predicting mortality to traditional risk factors alone (chi(2) = 13.62, p = 0.002) as well as risk factors + CAC (chi(2) = 5.84, p = 0.02) models. Conclusion: In conclusion, the presence of TAC was associated with all-cause mortality in our study; this relationship was independent of conventional CVD risk factors as well as the presence of CAC. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Objective: To evaluate the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and the prognostic factors for in-intensive care unit (ICU) and 6-month mortality in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients. Design: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in patients admitted to the ICU from 1996 through 2006. The follow-up period extended for 6 months after ICU admission. Setting: The ICU of a tertiary-care teaching hospital at the Universidade de Sao Paulo, Brazil. Participants: A total of 278 HIV-infected patients admitted to the ICU were selected. We excluded ICU readmissions (37), ICU admissions who stayed less than 24 hours (44), and patients with unavailable medical charts (36). Outcome Measure: In-ICU and 6-month mortality. Main Results: Multivariate logistic regression analysis and Cox proportional hazards models demonstrated that the variables associated with in-ICU and 6-month mortality were sepsis as the cause of admission (odds ratio [OR] = 3.16 [95% confidence interval [CI] 1.65-6.06]); hazards ratio [HR] = 1.37 [95% Cl 1.01-1.88)), an Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation 11 score >19 [OR = 2.81 (95% CI 1.57-5.04); HR = 2.18 (95% CI 1.62-2.94)], mechanical ventilation during the first 24 hours [OR = 3.92 (95% CI 2.20-6.96); HR = 2.25 (95% CI 1.65-3.07)], and year of ICU admission [OR = 0.90 (95% CI 0.81-0.99); HR = 0.92 [95% CI 0.87-0.97)]. CD4 T-cell count <50 cells/mm(3) Was only associated with ICU mortality [OR = 2.10 (95% Cl 1.17-3.76)]. The use of ART in the ICU was negatively predictive of 6-month mortality in the Cox model [HR = 0.50 (95% CI 0.35-0.71)], especially if this therapy was introduced during the first 4 days of admission to the ICU [HR = 0.58 (95% CI 0.41-0.83)]. Regarding HIV-infected patients admitted to ICU without using ART, those who have started this treatment during ICU, stay presented a better prognosis when time and potential confounding factors were adjusted for [HR 0.55 (95% CI 0.31-0.98)]. Conclusions: The ICU outcome of HIV-infected patients seems to be dependent not only on acute illness severity, but also on the administration of antiretroviral treatment. (Crit Care Med 2009; 37: 1605-1611)
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OBJECTIVE-This study sought to investigate an association of HbA1c (A1C) with incident heart failure among individuals without diabetes and compare it to fasting glucose. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS-We studied 11,057 participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study without heart failure or diabetes at baseline and estimated hazard ratios of incident heart failure by categories of A1C (<5.0, 5.0-5.4 [reference], 5 5-59, and 6.0-6.4%) and fasting glucose (<90, 90-99 [reference], 100-109, and 110-125 mg/dl) using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS-A total of 841 cases of incident heart failure hospitalization or deaths (International Classification of Disease, 9th/10th Revision, 428/150) occurred during a median follow-up of 14.1 years (incidence rate 5.7 per 1,000 person-years). After the adjustment for covariates including fasting glucose, the hazard ratio of incident heart failure was higher in individuals with A1C 6.0-6.4% (1.40 [95% CI, 1 09-1.79]) and 5.5-6.0% (1.16 [0.98-1 37]) as compared with the reference group. Similar results were observed when adjusting for insulin level or limiting to heart failure cases without preceding coronary events or developed diabetes during follow-up. In contrast, elevated fasting glucose was not associated with heart failure after adjustment for covariates and A1C. Similar findings were observed when the top quartile (A1C, 5.7-6.4%, and fasting glucose, 108-125 mg/dl) was compared with the lowest quartile (<5 2% and <95 mg/dl, respectively). CONCLUSIONS-Elevated A1C (>= 5.5-6 0%) was associated with incident heart failure in a middle-aged population without diabetes, suggesting that chronic hyperglycemia prior to the development of diabetes contributes to development of heart failure. Diabetes 59:2020-2026, 2010
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Background Patients with known or suspected coronary disease are often investigated to facilitate risk assessment. We sought to examine the cost-effectiveness of strategies based on exercise echocardiography and exercise electrocardiography. Methods and results We studied 7656 patients undergoing exercise testing; of whom half underwent exercise echocardiography. Risk was defined with the Duke treadmill score for those undergoing exercise electrocardiography alone, and by the extent of ischaemia by exercise echocardiography. Cox proportional hazards models, risk adjusted for pretest likelihood of coronary artery disease, were used to estimate time to cardiac death or myocardial infarction. Costs (including diagnostic and revascularisation procedures, hospitalisations, and events) were calculated, inflation-corrected to year 2000 using Medicare trust fund rates and discounted at a rate of 5%. A decision model was employed to assess the marginal cost effectiveness (cost/life year saved) of exercise echo compared with exercise electrocardiography. Exercise echocardiography identified more patients as low-risk (51% vs 24%, p<0.001), and fewer as intermediate- (27% vs 51%, p<0.001) and high-risk (22% vs 4%); survival was greater in low- and intermediate- risk and less in high-risk patients. Although initial procedural costs and revascularisation costs (in intermediate- high risk patients) were greater, exercise echocardiography was associated with a greater incremental life expectancy (0.2 years) and a lower use of additional diagnostic procedures when compared with exercise electrocardiography (especially in lower risk patients). Using decision analysis, exercise echocardiography (Euro 2615/life year saved) was more cost effective than exercise electrocardiography. Conclusion Exercise echocardiography may enhance cost-effectiveness for the detection and management of at risk patients with known or suspected coronary disease. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of The European Society of Cardiology.
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OBJECTIVE: To assess incidence and predictors of first pregnancy among women with HIV/AIDS. METHODS: Prospective cohort study was conducted in Rio de Janeiro, southeastern Brazil, between 1996 and 2003. This study comprised 225 women with HIV/AIDS followed up until their first pregnancy or first censored event (hysterectomy, tubal ligation, menopause, 50 years of age, loss to follow-up, death or the end of December 2003). Pregnancy and abortion rates were estimated, and Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify baseline characteristics associated with pregnancy risk. RESULTS: The women were followed up for 565 person/years with a median follow-up of 3 years per women. The mean age was 32 years (SD: 7), and 54.7% were white. There were 60 pregnancies in 39 women, and 18 were terminated (induced abortions), accounting for a rate of 6.9% and 2.1% women/year, respectively. Repeated pregnancies occurred in 33.3% of the women (13/39). Higher pregnancy risk was seen among younger women (HR=3.42; 95%CI: 1.69;6.95) and those living with their partners (HR=1.89; 95%CI: 1.00;3.57). Lower pregnancy risk was associated with higher education level (HR=0.43; 95%CI: 0.19;0.99) and use of antiretroviral therapy (HR=061; 95%CI: 0.31;1.17). CONCLUSIONS: Lower pregnancy rates were found in our cohort than in the general population. Sociodemographic characteristics should be taken into consideration in the management of reproductive health in HIV-positive childbearing age women. Reproductive and family planning counseling must be incorporated into HIV/AIDS programs for women to help preventing HIV transmission to their partners and offspring.
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AIMS: To evaluate the long-term clinical outcomes following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with the Genous stent in an unselected population. METHODS: All patients admitted to a single center who underwent PCI using the GS exclusively, between May 2006 and May 2012, were enrolled, and a clinical follow-up of up to 60 months was carried out. The primary endpoint of major adverse cardiac event (MACE) rate was defined as the composite of cardiac death, acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and target lesion revascularization (TLR). RESULTS: Of the 450 patients included (75.1% male; 65.5 ± 11.7 years), 28.4% were diabetic and acute coronary syndrome was the reason for PCI in 76.4%. Angioplasty was performed in 524 lesions using 597 Genous stents, with angiographic success in 97.1%. At a median of 36 months of follow-up (range, 1-75 months), MACE, AMI, TLR, stent restenosis (SR), and stent thrombosis (ST) rates were 15.6%, 8.4%, 4.4%, 3.8%, and 2.2%, respectively. Between 12 and 24 months, the TLR, SR, and ST rates practically stabilized, up to 60 months. Bifurcation lesions were independently associated with MACE, TLR, and SR. CONCLUSION: This is the first study reporting clinical results with the Genous stent up to 60 months. The Genous stent was safe and effective in the long-term, in an unselected population.
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OBJECTIVE: A familial predisposition to abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) is present in approximately one-fifth of patients. Nevertheless, the clinical implications of a positive family history are not known. We investigated the risk of aneurysm-related complications after endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) for patients with and without a positive family history of AAA. METHODS: Patients treated with EVAR for intact AAAs in the Erasmus University Medical Center between 2000 and 2012 were included in the study. Family history was obtained by written questionnaire. Familial AAA (fAAA) was defined as patients having at least one first-degree relative affected with aortic aneurysm. The remaining patients were considered sporadic AAA. Cardiovascular risk factors, aneurysm morphology (aneurysm neck, aneurysm sac, and iliac measurements), and follow-up were obtained prospectively. The primary end point was complications after EVAR, a composite of endoleaks, need for secondary interventions, aneurysm sac growth, acute limb ischemia, and postimplantation rupture. Secondary end points were specific components of the primary end point (presence of endoleak, need for secondary intervention, and aneurysm sac growth), aneurysm neck growth, and overall survival. Kaplan-Meier estimates for the primary end point were calculated and compared using log-rank (Mantel-Cox) test of equality. A Cox-regression model was used to calculate the independent risk of complications associated with fAAA. RESULTS: A total of 255 patients were included in the study (88.6% men; age 72 ± 7 years, median follow-up 3.3 years; interquartile range, 2.2-6.1). A total of 51 patients (20.0%) were classified as fAAA. Patients with fAAA were younger (69 vs 72 years; P = .015) and were less likely to have ever smoked (58.8% vs 73.5%; P = .039). Preoperative aneurysm morphology was similar in both groups. Patients with fAAA had significantly more complications after EVAR (35.3% vs 19.1%; P = .013), with a twofold increased risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-3.7). Secondary interventions (39.2% vs 20.1%; P = .004) and aneurysm sac growth (20.8% vs 9.5%; P = .030) were the most important elements accounting for the difference. Furthermore, a trend toward more type I endoleaks during follow-up was observed (15.6% vs 7.4%; P = .063) and no difference in overall survival. CONCLUSIONS: The current study shows that patients with a familial form of AAA develop more aneurysm-related complications after EVAR, despite similar AAA morphology at baseline. These findings suggest that patients with fAAA form a specific subpopulation and create awareness for a possible increase in the risk of complications after EVAR.
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OBJECTIVE: Although evidence has shown that ischemic heart disease (IHD) in vascular surgery patients has a negative impact on the prognosis after surgery, it is unclear whether directed treatment of IHD may influence cause-specific and overall mortality. The objective of this study was to determine the prognostic implication of coronary revascularization (CR) on overall and cause-specific mortality in vascular surgery patients. METHODS: Patients undergoing surgery for abdominal aortic aneurysm, carotid artery stenosis, or peripheral artery disease in a university hospital in The Netherlands between January 2003 and December 2011 were retrospectively included. Survival estimates were obtained by Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 1104 patients were included. Adjusted survival analyses showed that IHD significantly increased the risk of overall mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.50; 95% confidence interval, 1.21-1.87) and cardiovascular death (HR, 1.93; 95% confidence interval, 1.35-2.76). Compared with those without CR, patients previously undergoing CR had similar overall mortality (HR, 1.38 vs 1.62; P = .274) and cardiovascular mortality (HR, 1.83 vs 2.02; P = .656). Nonrevascularized IHD patients were more likely to die of IHD (6.9% vs 35.7%), whereas revascularized IHD patients more frequently died of cardiovascular causes unrelated to IHD (39.1% vs 64.3%; P = .018). CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms the significance of IHD for postoperative survival of vascular surgery patients. CR was associated with lower IHD-related death rates. However, it failed to provide an overall survival benefit because of an increased rate of cardiovascular mortality unrelated to IHD. Intensification of secondary prevention regimens may be required to prevent this shift toward non-IHD-related death and thereby improve life expectancy.
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OBJECTIVES: To determine the relationship between infections and functional impairment in nursing home residents. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study (follow-up period, 6 months). SETTING: Thirty-nine nursing homes in western Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1,324 residents aged 65 and older (mean age 85.7; 76.6% female) who agreed to participate, or their proxies, by oral informed consent. MEASUREMENTS: Functional status measured every 3 months. Two different outcomes were used: (a) functional decline defined as death or decreased function at follow-up and (b) functional status score using a standardized measure. RESULTS: At the end of follow-up, mortality was 14.6%, not different for those with and without infection (16.2% vs 13.1%, P=.11). During both 3-month periods, subjects with infection had higher odds of functional decline, even after adjustment for baseline characteristics and occurrence of a new illness (adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=1.6, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.2-2.2, P=.002, and AOR=1.5, 95% CI=1.1-2.0, P=.008, respectively). The odds of decline increased in a stepwise fashion in patients with zero, one, and two or more infections. The analyses predicting functional status score (restricted to subjects who survived) gave similar results. A survival analysis predicting time to first infection confirmed a stepwise greater likelihood of infection in subjects with moderate and severe impairment at baseline than in subjects with no or mild functional impairment at baseline. CONCLUSION: Infections appear to be both a cause and a consequence of functional impairment in nursing home residents. Further studies should be undertaken to investigate whether effective infection control programs can also contribute to preventing functional decline, an important component of these residents' quality of life.
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BACKGROUND: VeriStrat(®) is a serum proteomic test used to determine whether patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who have already received chemotherapy are likely to have good or poor outcomes from treatment with gefitinib or erlotinib. The main objective of our retrospective study was to evaluate the role of VS as a marker of overall survival (OS) in patients treated with erlotinib and bevacizumab in the first line. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients were pooled from two phase II trials (SAKK19/05 and NTR528). For survival analyses, a log-rank test was used to determine if there was a statistically significant difference between groups. The hazard ratio (HR) of any separation was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: 117 patients were analyzed. VeriStrat classified patients into two groups which had a statistically significant difference in duration of OS (p=0.0027, HR=0.480, 95% confidence interval: 0.294-0.784). CONCLUSION: VeriStrat has a prognostic role in patients with advanced, nonsquamous NSCLC treated with erlotinib and bevacizumab in the first line. Further work is needed to study the predictive role of VeriStrat for erlotinib and bevacizumab in chemotherapy-untreated patients.
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The authors examined the associations of social support with socioeconomic status (SES) and with mortality, as well as how SES differences in social support might account for SES differences in mortality. Analyses were based on 9,333 participants from the British Whitehall II Study cohort, a longitudinal cohort established in 1985 among London-based civil servants who were 35-55 years of age at baseline. SES was assessed using participant's employment grades at baseline. Social support was assessed 3 times in the 24.4-year period during which participants were monitored for death. In men, marital status, and to a lesser extent network score (but not low perceived support or high negative aspects of close relationships), predicted both all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Measures of social support were not associated with cancer mortality. Men in the lowest SES category had an increased risk of death compared with those in the highest category (for all-cause mortality, hazard ratio = 1.59, 95% confidence interval: 1.21, 2.08; for cardiovascular mortality, hazard ratio = 2.48, 95% confidence interval: 1.55, 3.92). Network score and marital status combined explained 27% (95% confidence interval: 14, 43) and 29% (95% confidence interval: 17, 52) of the associations between SES and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively. In women, there was no consistent association between social support indicators and mortality. The present study suggests that in men, social isolation is not only an important risk factor for mortality but is also likely to contribute to differences in mortality by SES.
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BACKGROUND: The epidemiology of congenital small intestinal atresia (SIA) has not been well studied. This study describes the presence of additional anomalies, pregnancy outcomes, total prevalence and association with maternal age in SIA cases in Europe. METHODS: Cases of SIA delivered during January 1990 to December 2006 notified to 20 EUROCAT registers formed the population-based case series. Prevalence over time was estimated using multilevel Poisson regression, and heterogeneity between registers was evaluated from the random component of the intercept. RESULTS: In total 1133 SIA cases were reported among 5126, 164 registered births. Of 1044 singleton cases, 215 (20.6%) cases were associated with a chromosomal anomaly. Of 829 singleton SIA cases with normal karyotype, 221 (26.7%) were associated with other structural anomalies. Considering cases with normal karyotype, the total prevalence per 10 000 births was 1.6 (95% CI 1.5 to 1.7) for SIA, 0.9 (95% CI 0.8 to 1.0) for duodenal atresia and 0.7 (95% CI 0.7 to 0.8) for jejunoileal atresia (JIA). There was no significant trend in SIA, duodenal atresia or JIA prevalence over time (RR=1.0, 95% credible interval (CrI): 1.0 to 1.0 for each), but SIA and duodenal atresia prevalence varied by geographical location (p=0.03 and p=0.04, respectively). There was weak evidence of an increased risk of SIA in mothers aged less than 20 years compared with mothers aged 20 to 29 years (RR=1.3, 95% CrI: 1.0 to 1.8). CONCLUSION: This study found no evidence of a temporal trend in the prevalence of SIA, duodenal atresia or JIA, although SIA and duodenal atresia prevalence varied significantly between registers.
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BACKGROUND: The provision of sufficient basal insulin to normalize fasting plasma glucose levels may reduce cardiovascular events, but such a possibility has not been formally tested. METHODS: We randomly assigned 12,537 people (mean age, 63.5 years) with cardiovascular risk factors plus impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance, or type 2 diabetes to receive insulin glargine (with a target fasting blood glucose level of ≤95 mg per deciliter [5.3 mmol per liter]) or standard care and to receive n-3 fatty acids or placebo with the use of a 2-by-2 factorial design. The results of the comparison between insulin glargine and standard care are reported here. The coprimary outcomes were nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or death from cardiovascular causes and these events plus revascularization or hospitalization for heart failure. Microvascular outcomes, incident diabetes, hypoglycemia, weight, and cancers were also compared between groups. RESULTS: The median follow-up was 6.2 years (interquartile range, 5.8 to 6.7). Rates of incident cardiovascular outcomes were similar in the insulin-glargine and standard-care groups: 2.94 and 2.85 per 100 person-years, respectively, for the first coprimary outcome (hazard ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.94 to 1.11; P=0.63) and 5.52 and 5.28 per 100 person-years, respectively, for the second coprimary outcome (hazard ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.97 to 1.11; P=0.27). New diabetes was diagnosed approximately 3 months after therapy was stopped among 30% versus 35% of 1456 participants without baseline diabetes (odds ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.64 to 1.00; P=0.05). Rates of severe hypoglycemia were 1.00 versus 0.31 per 100 person-years. Median weight increased by 1.6 kg in the insulin-glargine group and fell by 0.5 kg in the standard-care group. There was no significant difference in cancers (hazard ratio, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.88 to 1.13; P=0.97). CONCLUSIONS: When used to target normal fasting plasma glucose levels for more than 6 years, insulin glargine had a neutral effect on cardiovascular outcomes and cancers. Although it reduced new-onset diabetes, insulin glargine also increased hypoglycemia and modestly increased weight. (Funded by Sanofi; ORIGIN ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00069784.).
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To evaluate sex differences in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease progression before (pre-1997) and after (1997-2006) introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy, the authors used data from a collaboration of 23 HIV seroconverter cohort studies from Europe, Australia, and Canada restricted to the 6,923 seroconverters infected through injecting drug use and sex between men and women. Within a competing risk framework, they used Cox proportional hazards models allowing for late entry to evaluate sex differences in time from HIV seroconversion to death, to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), and to each first AIDS-defining disease and death without AIDS. While no significant sex differences were found before 1997, from 1997 onward, women had a lower risk of AIDS (adjusted cumulative relative risk (aCRR) = 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.63, 0.90) and death (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.82) than men did. Compared with men, women also had lower risks of AIDS dementia complex (aCRR = 0.23, 95% CI: 0.07, 0.74), tuberculosis (aCRR = 0.60, 95% CI: 0.39, 0.92), Kaposi's sarcoma (aCRR = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.07, 0.99), lymphomas (aCRR = 0.47, 95% CI: 0.23, 0.96), and death without AIDS (aCRR = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.98). Sex differences in HIV disease progression have become larger and statistically significant in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy, supporting a stronger impact of health interventions among women.