Short-Term Load Forecast Of A Low Loadfactor Power System For Optimization Of Merit Order Dispatch Using Adaptive Learning Algorithm

Short term load forecasting is one of the key inputs to optimize the management of power system. Almost 60-65% of revenue expenditure of a distribution company is against power purchase. Cost of power depends on source of power. Hence any optimization strategy involves optimization in scheduling power from various sources. As the scheduling involves many technical and commercial considerations and constraints, the efficiency in scheduling depends on the accuracy of load forecast. Load forecasting is a topic much visited in research world and a number of papers using different techniques are already presented. The accuracy of forecast for the purpose of merit order dispatch decisions depends on the extent of the permissible variation in generation limits. For a system with low load factor, the peak and the off peak trough are prominent and the forecast should be able to identify these points to more accuracy rather than minimizing the error in the energy content. In this paper an attempt is made to apply Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with supervised learning based approach to make short term load forecasting for a power system with comparatively low load factor. Such power systems are usual in tropical areas with concentrated rainy season for a considerable period of the year

Conceptualisation of an application of adaptive synthetic socioeconomic agents for intelligent network control

The deployment of Quality of Service (QoS) techniques involves careful analysis of area including: those business requirements; corporate strategy; and technical implementation process, which can lead to conflict or contradiction between those goals of various user groups involved in that policy definition. In addition long-term change management provides a challenge as these implementations typically require a high-skill set and experience level, which expose organisations to effects such as “hyperthymestria” [1] and “The Seven Sins of Memory”, defined by Schacter and discussed further within this paper. It is proposed that, given the information embedded within the packets of IP traffic, an opportunity exists to augment the traffic management with a machine-learning agent-based mechanism. This paper describes the process by which current policies are defined and that research required to support the development of an application which enables adaptive intelligent Quality of Service controls to augment or replace those policy-based mechanisms currently in use.

Adaptive, Decentralized, And Real-Time Sampling Strategies For Resource Constrained Hydraulic And Hydrologic Sensor Networks

We discuss the development and performance of a low-power sensor node (hardware, software and algorithms) that autonomously controls the sampling interval of a suite of sensors based on local state estimates and future predictions of water flow. The problem is motivated by the need to accurately reconstruct abrupt state changes in urban watersheds and stormwater systems. Presently, the detection of these events is limited by the temporal resolution of sensor data. It is often infeasible, however, to increase measurement frequency due to energy and sampling constraints. This is particularly true for real-time water quality measurements, where sampling frequency is limited by reagent availability, sensor power consumption, and, in the case of automated samplers, the number of available sample containers. These constraints pose a significant barrier to the ubiquitous and cost effective instrumentation of large hydraulic and hydrologic systems. Each of our sensor nodes is equipped with a low-power microcontroller and a wireless module to take advantage of urban cellular coverage. The node persistently updates a local, embedded model of flow conditions while IP-connectivity permits each node to continually query public weather servers for hourly precipitation forecasts. The sampling frequency is then adjusted to increase the likelihood of capturing abrupt changes in a sensor signal, such as the rise in the hydrograph – an event that is often difficult to capture through traditional sampling techniques. Our architecture forms an embedded processing chain, leveraging local computational resources to assess uncertainty by analyzing data as it is collected. A network is presently being deployed in an urban watershed in Michigan and initial results indicate that the system accurately reconstructs signals of interest while significantly reducing energy consumption and the use of sampling resources. We also expand our analysis by discussing the role of this approach for the efficient real-time measurement of stormwater systems.

An interferon regulatory factor element controls the major immune modulator of murine cytomegalovirus

Immune modulation by herpesviruses, such as cytomegalovirus, is critical for the establishment of acute and persistent infection confronting a vigorous antiviral immune response of the host. Therefore, the action of immune-modulatory proteins has long been the subject of research, with the final goal to identify new strategies for antiviral therapy.rnIn the case of murine cytomegalovirus (mCMV), the viral m152 protein has been identified to play a major role in targeting components of both the innate and the adaptive immune system in terms of infected host-cell recognition in the effector phase of the antiviral immune response. On the one hand, it inhibits cell surface expression of RAE-1 and thereby prevents ligation of the activating natural killer (NK)-cell receptor NKG2D. On the other hand, it decreases cell surface expression of peptide-loaded MHC class I molecules thereby preventing antigen presentation to CD8 T cells. Ultimately, the outcome of CMV infection is determined by the interplay between viral and cellular factors.rnIn this context, the work presented here has revealed a novel and intriguing connection between viral m152 and cellular interferon (IFN), a key cytokine of the immune system: rnthe m152 promoter region contains an interferon regulatory factor element (IRFE) perfectly matching the consensus sequence of cellular IRFEs.rnThe biological relevance of this regulatory element was first suggested by sequence comparisons revealing its evolutionary conservation among various established laboratory strains of mCMV and more recent low-passage wild-derived virus isolates. Moreover, search of the mCMV genome revealed only three IRFE sites in the complete sequence. Importantly, the functionality of the IRFE in the m152 promoter was confirmed with the use of a mutant virus, representing a functional deletion of the IRFE, and its corresponding revertant virus. In particular, m152 gene expression was found to be inhibited in an IRFE-dependent manner in infected cells. Essentially, this inhibition proved to have a severe impact on the immune-modulatory function of m152, first demonstrated by a restored direct antigen presentation on infected cells for CD8 T-cell activation. Even more importantly, this effect of IRFE-mediated IFN signaling was validated in vivo by showing that the protective antiviral capacity of adoptively-transferred, antigen-specific CD8 T cells is also significantly restored by the IRFE-dependent inhibition of m152. Somewhat curious and surprising, the decrease in m152 protein simultaneously prevented an enhanced activation of NK cells in acute-infected mice, apparently independent of the RAE-1/NKG2D ligand/receptor interaction but rather due to reduced ‘missing-self’ recognition.rnTaken together, this work presents a so far unknown mechanism of IFN signaling to control mCMV immune modulation in acute infection.rnrn

Elevated levels of placental growth factor represent an adaptive host response in sepsis

Recently, we demonstrated that circulating levels of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and placental growth factor (PlGF) are increased in sepsis (Yano, K., P.C. Liaw, J.M. Mullington, S.C. Shih, H. Okada, N. Bodyak, P.M. Kang, L. Toltl, B. Belikoff, J. Buras, et al. 2006. J. Exp. Med. 203:1447-1458). Moreover, enhanced VEGF/Flk-1 signaling was shown to contribute to sepsis morbidity and mortality. We tested the hypothesis that PlGF also contributes to sepsis outcome. In mouse models of endotoxemia and cecal ligation puncture, the genetic absence of PlGF or the systemic administration of neutralizing anti-PlGF antibodies resulted in higher mortality compared with wild-type or immunoglobulin G-injected controls, respectively. The increased mortality associated with genetic deficiency of PlGF was reversed by adenovirus (Ad)-mediated overexpression of PlGF. In the endotoxemia model, PlGF deficiency was associated with elevated circulating levels of VEGF, induction of VEGF expression in the liver, impaired cardiac function, and organ-specific accentuation of barrier dysfunction and inflammation. Mortality of endotoxemic PlGF-deficient mice was increased by Ad-mediated overexpression of VEGF and was blocked by expression of soluble Flt-1. Collectively, these data suggest that up-regulation of PlGF in sepsis is an adaptive host response that exerts its benefit, at least in part, by attenuating VEGF signaling.

The influence of formal and informal sales controls on customer-directed selling behaviors and sales unit effectiveness

Adaptive selling (AS) and customer-oriented selling (COS) constitute two key customer-directed selling behaviors for the success of the modern sales force. However, knowledge regarding the organizational factors that can induce salespeople to engage in those behaviors is strikingly limited. Against this background, we develop a comprehensive model that delineates the influences of formal and informal sales controls on AS and COS and, through them, on sales unit effectiveness. Based on a sample of sales managers in a major European Union country, we present new evidence that (a) formal and informal sales controls exert differential impact on salespeople's AS and COS behaviors; (b) AS directly and positively influences sales unit effectiveness; (c) COS affects sales unit effectiveness only indirectly, i.e. by fostering AS; and (d) outcome and cultural controls directly improve sales unit effectiveness. We conclude with a discussion of our findings for academics and practitioners.

Long-term dynamics of adaptive evolution in a globally important coccolithophore to ocean acidification

Recent evolution experiments have revealed that marine phytoplankton may adapt to global change, for example to ocean warming or acidification. Long-term adaptation to novel environments is a dynamic process and phenotypic change can take place thousands of generations after exposure to novel conditions. Using the longest evolution experiment performed in any marine species to date (4 yrs, = 2100 generations), we show that in the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi, long-term adaptation to ocean acidification is complex and initial phenotypic responses may revert for important traits. While fitness increased continuously, calcification was restored within the first 500 generations but later reduced in response to selection, enhancing physiological declines of calcification in response to ocean acidification. Interestingly, calcification was not constitutively reduced but revealed rates similar to control treatments when transferred back to present-day CO2 conditions. Growth rate increased with time in controls and adaptation treatments, although the effect size of adaptation assessed through reciprocal assay experiments varied. Several trait changes were associated with selection for higher cell division rates under laboratory conditions, such as reduced cell size and lower particulate organic carbon content per cell. Our results show that phytoplankton may evolve phenotypic plasticity that can affect biogeochemically important traits, such as calcification, in an unforeseen way under future ocean conditions.

A methodology to analyze, design and implement very fast and robust controls of Buck-type converters

La electrónica digital moderna presenta un desafío a los diseñadores de sistemas de potencia. El creciente alto rendimiento de microprocesadores, FPGAs y ASICs necesitan sistemas de alimentación que cumplan con requirimientos dinámicos y estáticos muy estrictos. Específicamente, estas alimentaciones son convertidores DC-DC de baja tensión y alta corriente que necesitan ser diseñados para tener un pequeño rizado de tensión y una pequeña desviación de tensión de salida bajo transitorios de carga de una alta pendiente. Además, dependiendo de la aplicación, se necesita cumplir con otros requerimientos tal y como proveer a la carga con ”Escalado dinámico de tensión”, donde el convertidor necesitar cambiar su tensión de salida tan rápidamente posible sin sobreoscilaciones, o ”Posicionado Adaptativo de la Tensión” donde la tensión de salida se reduce ligeramente cuanto más grande sea la potencia de salida. Por supuesto, desde el punto de vista de la industria, las figuras de mérito de estos convertidores son el coste, la eficiencia y el tamaño/peso. Idealmente, la industria necesita un convertidor que es más barato, más eficiente, más pequeño y que aún así cumpla con los requerimienos dinámicos de la aplicación. En este contexto, varios enfoques para mejorar la figuras de mérito de estos convertidores se han seguido por la industria y la academia tales como mejorar la topología del convertidor, mejorar la tecnología de semiconducores y mejorar el control. En efecto, el control es una parte fundamental en estas aplicaciones ya que un control muy rápido hace que sea más fácil que una determinada topología cumpla con los estrictos requerimientos dinámicos y, consecuentemente, le da al diseñador un margen de libertar más amplio para mejorar el coste, la eficiencia y/o el tamaño del sistema de potencia. En esta tesis, se investiga cómo diseñar e implementar controles muy rápidos para el convertidor tipo Buck. En esta tesis se demuestra que medir la tensión de salida es todo lo que se necesita para lograr una respuesta casi óptima y se propone una guía de diseño unificada para controles que sólo miden la tensión de salida Luego, para asegurar robustez en controles muy rápidos, se proponen un modelado y un análisis de estabilidad muy precisos de convertidores DC-DC que tienen en cuenta circuitería para sensado y elementos parásitos críticos. También, usando este modelado, se propone una algoritmo de optimización que tiene en cuenta las tolerancias de los componentes y sensados distorsionados. Us ando este algoritmo, se comparan controles muy rápidos del estado del arte y su capacidad para lograr una rápida respuesta dinámica se posiciona según el condensador de salida utilizado. Además, se propone una técnica para mejorar la respuesta dinámica de los controladores. Todas las propuestas se han corroborado por extensas simulaciones y prototipos experimentales. Con todo, esta tesis sirve como una metodología para ingenieros para diseñar e implementar controles rápidos y robustos de convertidores tipo Buck. ABSTRACT Modern digital electronics present a challenge to designers of power systems. The increasingly high-performance of microprocessors, FPGAs (Field Programmable Gate Array) and ASICs (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) require power supplies to comply with very demanding static and dynamic requirements. Specifically, these power supplies are low-voltage/high-current DC-DC converters that need to be designed to exhibit low voltage ripple and low voltage deviation under high slew-rate load transients. Additionally, depending on the application, other requirements need to be met such as to provide to the load ”Dynamic Voltage Scaling” (DVS), where the converter needs to change the output voltage as fast as possible without underdamping, or ”Adaptive Voltage Positioning” (AVP) where the output voltage is slightly reduced the greater the output power. Of course, from the point of view of the industry, the figures of merit of these converters are the cost, efficiency and size/weight. Ideally, the industry needs a converter that is cheaper, more efficient, smaller and that can still meet the dynamic requirements of the application. In this context, several approaches to improve the figures of merit of these power supplies are followed in the industry and academia such as improving the topology of the converter, improving the semiconductor technology and improving the control. Indeed, the control is a fundamental part in these applications as a very fast control makes it easier for the topology to comply with the strict dynamic requirements and, consequently, gives the designer a larger margin of freedom to improve the cost, efficiency and/or size of the power supply. In this thesis, how to design and implement very fast controls for the Buck converter is investigated. This thesis proves that sensing the output voltage is all that is needed to achieve an almost time-optimal response and a unified design guideline for controls that only sense the output voltage is proposed. Then, in order to assure robustness in very fast controls, a very accurate modeling and stability analysis of DC-DC converters is proposed that takes into account sensing networks and critical parasitic elements. Also, using this modeling approach, an optimization algorithm that takes into account tolerances of components and distorted measurements is proposed. With the use of the algorithm, very fast analog controls of the state-of-the-art are compared and their capabilities to achieve a fast dynamic response are positioned de pending on the output capacitor. Additionally, a technique to improve the dynamic response of controllers is also proposed. All the proposals are corroborated by extensive simulations and experimental prototypes. Overall, this thesis serves as a methodology for engineers to design and implement fast and robust controls for Buck-type converters.

Executive-controlled adaptive systems,

At head of title: Microwave Research Institute, Polytechnic Institute of Brooklyn, Systems and Controls Group, R-688-58, PIB-616, contract no. DA-30-069-ORD-1560.

On waveform analysis, the adaptive task technique, and the effect of vibration on manual control skill

A re-examination of fundamental concepts and a formal structuring of the waveform analysis problem is presented in Part I. eg. the nature of frequency is examined and a novel alternative to the classical methods of detection proposed and implemented which has the advantage of speed and independence from amplitude. Waveform analysis provides the link between Parts I and II. Part II is devoted to Human Factors and the Adaptive Task Technique. The Historical, Technical and Intellectual development of the technique is traced in a review which examines the evidence of its advantages relative to non-adaptive fixed task methods of training, skill assessment and man-machine optimisation. A second review examines research evidence on the effect of vibration on manual control ability. Findings are presented in terms of percentage increment or decrement in performance relative to performance without vibration in the range 0-0.6Rms'g'. Primary task performance was found to vary by as much as 90% between tasks at the same Rms'g'. Differences in task difficulty accounted for this difference. Within tasks vibration-added-difficulty accounted for the effects of vibration intensity. Secondary tasks were found to be largely insensitive to vibration except secondaries which involved fine manual adjustment of minor controls. Three experiments are reported next in which an adaptive technique was used to measure the % task difficulty added by vertical random and sinusoidal vibration to a 'Critical Compensatory Tracking task. At vibration intensities between 0 - 0.09 Rms 'g' it was found that random vibration added (24.5 x Rms'g')/7.4 x 100% to the difficulty of the control task. An equivalence relationship between Random and Sinusoidal vibration effects was established based upon added task difficulty. Waveform Analyses which were applied to the experimental data served to validate Phase Plane analysis and uncovered the development of a control and possibly a vibration isolation strategy. The submission ends with an appraisal of subjects mentioned in the thesis title.

Adaptive rate control of dedicated short range communications based vehicle networks for road safety applications

Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC) is a promising technique for vehicle ad-hoc network (VANET) and collaborative road safety applications. As road safety applications require strict quality of services (QoS) from the VANET, it is crucial for DSRC to provide timely and reliable communications to make safety applications successful. In this paper we propose two adaptive message rate control algorithms for low priority safety messages, in order to provide highly available channel for high priority emergency messages while improve channel utilization. In the algorithms each vehicle monitors channel loads and independently controls message rate by a modified additive increase and multiplicative decrease (AIMD) method. Simulation results demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed rate control algorithms in adapting to dynamic traffic load.

Prevalence of SOS-mediated control of integron integrase expression as an adaptive trait of chromosomal and mobile integrons

BACKGROUND Integrons are found in hundreds of environmental bacterial species, but are mainly known as the agents responsible for the capture and spread of antibiotic-resistance determinants between Gram-negative pathogens. The SOS response is a regulatory network under control of the repressor protein LexA targeted at addressing DNA damage, thus promoting genetic variation in times of stress. We recently reported a direct link between the SOS response and the expression of integron integrases in Vibrio cholerae and a plasmid-borne class 1 mobile integron. SOS regulation enhances cassette swapping and capture in stressful conditions, while freezing the integron in steady environments. We conducted a systematic study of available integron integrase promoter sequences to analyze the extent of this relationship across the Bacteria domain. RESULTS Our results showed that LexA controls the expression of a large fraction of integron integrases by binding to Escherichia coli-like LexA binding sites. In addition, the results provide experimental validation of LexA control of the integrase gene for another Vibrio chromosomal integron and for a multiresistance plasmid harboring two integrons. There was a significant correlation between lack of LexA control and predicted inactivation of integrase genes, even though experimental evidence also indicates that LexA regulation may be lost to enhance expression of integron cassettes. CONCLUSIONS Ancestral-state reconstruction on an integron integrase phylogeny led us to conclude that the ancestral integron was already regulated by LexA. The data also indicated that SOS regulation has been actively preserved in mobile integrons and large chromosomal integrons, suggesting that unregulated integrase activity is selected against. Nonetheless, additional adaptations have probably arisen to cope with unregulated integrase activity. Identifying them may be fundamental in deciphering the uneven distribution of integrons in the Bacteria domain.

The Crosslinking Degree Controls The Mechanical, Rheological, And Swelling Properties Of Hyaluronic Acid Microparticles.

Viscosupplements, used for treating joint and cartilage diseases, restore the rheological properties of synovial fluid, regulate joint homeostasis and act as scaffolds for cell growth and tissue regeneration. Most viscosupplements are hydrogels composed of hyaluronic acid (HA) microparticles suspended in fluid HA. These microparticles are crosslinked with chemicals to assure their stability against enzyme degradation and to prolong the action of the viscosupplement. However, the crosslinking also modifies the mechanical, swelling and rheological properties of the HA microparticle hydrogels, with consequences on the effectiveness of the application. The aim of this study is to correlate the crosslinking degree (CD) with these properties to achieve modulation of HA/DVS microparticles through CD control. Because divinyl sulfone (DVS) is the usual crosslinker of HA in viscosupplements, we examined the effects of CD by preparing HA microparticles at 1:1, 2:1, 3:1, and 5:1 HA/DVS mass ratios. The CD was calculated from inductively coupled plasma spectrometry data. HA microparticles were previously sized to a mean diameter of 87.5 µm. Higher CD increased the viscoelasticity and the extrusion force and reduced the swelling of the HA microparticle hydrogels, which also showed Newtonian pseudoplastic behavior and were classified as covalent weak. The hydrogels were not cytotoxic to fibroblasts according to an MTT (3-[4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl]-2,5-diphenyltetrazolium bromide) assay. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Biomed Mater Res Part A, 2014.

Metabolic Memory Of ß-cells Controls Insulin Secretion And Is Mediated By Camkii.

Ca(2+)/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II (CaMKII) functions both in regulation of insulin secretion and neurotransmitter release through common downstream mediators. Therefore, we hypothesized that pancreatic ß-cells acquire and store the information contained in calcium pulses as a form of metabolic memory, just as neurons store cognitive information. To test this hypothesis, we developed a novel paradigm of pulsed exposure of ß-cells to intervals of high glucose, followed by a 24-h consolidation period to eliminate any acute metabolic effects. Strikingly, ß-cells exposed to this high-glucose pulse paradigm exhibited significantly stronger insulin secretion. This metabolic memory was entirely dependent on CaMKII. Metabolic memory was reflected on the protein level by increased expression of proteins involved in glucose sensing and Ca(2+)-dependent vesicle secretion, and by elevated levels of the key ß-cell transcription factor MAFA. In summary, like neurons, human and mouse ß-cells are able to acquire and retrieve information.

Hypothalamic S1p/s1pr1 Axis Controls Energy Homeostasis.

Sphingosine 1-phosphate receptor 1 (S1PR1) is a G-protein-coupled receptor for sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P) that has a role in many physiological and pathophysiological processes. Here we show that the S1P/S1PR1 signalling pathway in hypothalamic neurons regulates energy homeostasis in rodents. We demonstrate that S1PR1 protein is highly enriched in hypothalamic POMC neurons of rats. Intracerebroventricular injections of the bioactive lipid, S1P, reduce food consumption and increase rat energy expenditure through persistent activation of STAT3 and the melanocortin system. Similarly, the selective disruption of hypothalamic S1PR1 increases food intake and reduces the respiratory exchange ratio. We further show that STAT3 controls S1PR1 expression in neurons via a positive feedback mechanism. Interestingly, several models of obesity and cancer anorexia display an imbalance of hypothalamic S1P/S1PR1/STAT3 axis, whereas pharmacological intervention ameliorates these phenotypes. Taken together, our data demonstrate that the neuronal S1P/S1PR1/STAT3 signalling axis plays a critical role in the control of energy homeostasis in rats.