999 resultados para ASH model
Resumo:
Työn tavoite oli kehittää karakterisointimenetelmät kalkkikiven ja polttoaineen tuhkan jauhautumisen ennustamiselle kiertoleijukattilan tulipesässä. Kiintoainekäyttäytymisen karakterisoinnilla ja mallintamisella voidaan tarkentaa tulipesän lämmönsiirron ja tuhkajaon ennustamista. Osittain kokeelliset karakterisointimenetelmät perustuvat kalkkikiven jauhautumiseen laboratoriokokoluokan leijutetussa kvartsiputkireaktorissa ja tuhkan jauhatumiseen rotaatiomyllyssä. Karakterisointimenetelmät ottavat huomioon eri-laiset toimintaolosuhteet kaupallisen kokoluokan kiertoleijukattiloissa. Menetelmät kelpoistettiin kaupallisen kokoluokan kiertoleijukattiloista mitattujen ja fraktioittaisella kiintoainemallilla mallinnettujen taseiden avulla. Kelpoistamistaseiden vähäisyydestä huolimatta karakterisointimenetelmät arvioitiin virhetarkastelujen perusteella järkeviksi. Karakterisointimenetelmien kehittämistä ja tarkentamista tullaan jatkamaan.
Resumo:
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with inflammatory cell reactions, tissue destruction and lung remodeling. Many signaling pathways for these phenomena are still to be identified. We developed a mouse model of COPD to evaluate some pathophysiological mechanisms acting during the initial stage of the disease. Forty-seven 6- to 8-week-old female C57/BL6 mice (approximately 22 g) were exposed for 2 months to cigarette smoke and/or residual oil fly ash (ROFA), a concentrate of air pollution. We measured lung mechanics, airspace enlargement, airway wall thickness, epithelial cell profile, elastic and collagen fiber deposition, and by immunohistochemistry transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1), macrophage elastase (MMP12), neutrophils and macrophages. We observed regional airspace enlargements near terminal bronchioles associated with the exposure to smoke or ROFA. There were also increases in airway resistance and thickening of airway walls in animals exposed to smoke. In the epithelium, we noted a decrease in the ciliated cell area of animals exposed to smoke and an increase in the total cell area associated with exposure to both smoke and ROFA. There was also an increase in the expression of TGF-β1 both in the airways and parenchyma of animals exposed to smoke. However, we could not detect inflammatory cell recruitment, increases in MMP12 or elastic and collagen fiber deposition. After 2 months of exposure to cigarette smoke and/or ROFA, mice developed regional airspace enlargements and airway epithelium remodeling, although no inflammation or increases in fiber deposition were detected. Some of these phenomena may have been mediated by TGF-β1.
Resumo:
The Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland erupted explosively on 14 April 2010, emitting a plume of ash into the atmosphere. The ash was transported from Iceland toward Europe where mostly cloud-free skies allowed ground-based lidars at Chilbolton in England and Leipzig in Germany to estimate the mass concentration in the ash cloud as it passed overhead. The UK Met Office's Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modeling Environment (NAME) has been used to simulate the evolution of the ash cloud from the Eyjafjallajökull volcano during the initial phase of the ash emissions, 14–16 April 2010. NAME captures the timing and sloped structure of the ash layer observed over Leipzig, close to the central axis of the ash cloud. Relatively small errors in the ash cloud position, probably caused by the cumulative effect of errors in the driving meteorology en route, result in a timing error at distances far from the central axis of the ash cloud. Taking the timing error into account, NAME is able to capture the sloped ash layer over the UK. Comparison of the lidar observations and NAME simulations has allowed an estimation of the plume height time series to be made. It is necessary to include in the model input the large variations in plume height in order to accurately predict the ash cloud structure at long range. Quantitative comparison with the mass concentrations at Leipzig and Chilbolton suggest that around 3% of the total emitted mass is transported as far as these sites by small (<100 μm diameter) ash particles.
Resumo:
We make a qualitative and quantitative comparison of numericalsimulations of the ashcloud generated by the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in April2010 with ground-basedlidar measurements at Exeter and Cardington in southern England. The numericalsimulations are performed using the Met Office’s dispersion model, NAME (Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment). The results show that NAME captures many of the features of the observed ashcloud. The comparison enables us to estimate the fraction of material which survives the near-source fallout processes and enters into the distal plume. A number of simulations are performed which show that both the structure of the ashcloudover southern England and the concentration of ash within it are particularly sensitive to the height of the eruption column (and the consequent estimated mass emission rate), to the shape of the vertical source profile and the level of prescribed ‘turbulent diffusion’ (representing the mixing by the unresolved eddies) in the free troposphere with less sensitivity to the timing of the start of the eruption and the sedimentation of particulates in the distal plume.
Resumo:
1] We apply a novel computational approach to assess, for the first time, volcanic ash dispersal during the Campanian Ignimbrite (Italy) super-eruption providing insights into eruption dynamics and the impact of this gigantic event. The method uses a 3D time-dependent computational ash dispersion model, a set of wind fields, and more than 100 thickness measurements of the CI tephra deposit. Results reveal that the CI eruption dispersed 250–300 km3 of ash over ∼3.7 million km2. The injection of such a large quantity of ash (and volatiles) into the atmosphere would have caused a volcanic winter during the Heinrich Event 4, the coldest and driest climatic episode of the Last Glacial period. Fluorine-bearing leachate from the volcanic ash and acid rain would have further affected food sources and severely impacted Late Middle-Early Upper Paleolithic groups in Southern and Eastern Europe
Observations of the eruption of the Sarychev volcano and simulations using the HadGEM2 climate model
Resumo:
In June 2009 the Sarychev volcano located in the Kuril Islands to the northeast of Japan erupted explosively, injecting ash and an estimated 1.2 ± 0.2 Tg of sulfur dioxide into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, making it arguably one of the 10 largest stratospheric injections in the last 50 years. During the period immediately after the eruption, we show that the sulfur dioxide (SO2) cloud was clearly detected by retrievals developed for the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) satellite instrument and that the resultant stratospheric sulfate aerosol was detected by the Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imaging System (OSIRIS) limb sounder and CALIPSO lidar. Additional surface‐based instrumentation allows assessment of the impact of the eruption on the stratospheric aerosol optical depth. We use a nudged version of the HadGEM2 climate model to investigate how well this state‐of‐the‐science climate model can replicate the distributions of SO2 and sulfate aerosol. The model simulations and OSIRIS measurements suggest that in the Northern Hemisphere the stratospheric aerosol optical depth was enhanced by around a factor of 3 (0.01 at 550 nm), with resultant impacts upon the radiation budget. The simulations indicate that, in the Northern Hemisphere for July 2009, the magnitude of the mean radiative impact from the volcanic aerosols is more than 60% of the direct radiative forcing of all anthropogenic aerosols put together. While the cooling induced by the eruption will likely not be detectable in the observational record, the combination of modeling and measurements would provide an ideal framework for simulating future larger volcanic eruptions.
Resumo:
Aerosol sources, transport, and sinks are simulated, and aerosol direct radiative effects are assessed over the Indian Ocean for the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) Intensive Field Phase during January to March 1999 using the Laboratoire de Me´te´orologie Dynamique (LMDZT) general circulation model. The model reproduces the latitudinal gradient in aerosol mass concentration and optical depth (AOD). The model-predicted aerosol concentrations and AODs agree reasonably well with measurements but are systematically underestimated during high-pollution episodes, especially in the month of March. The largest aerosol loads are found over southwestern China, the Bay of Bengal, and the Indian subcontinent. Aerosol emissions from the Indian subcontinent are transported into the Indian Ocean through either the west coast or the east coast of India. Over the INDOEX region, carbonaceous aerosols are the largest contributor to the estimated AOD, followed by sulfate, dust, sea salt, and fly ash. During the northeast winter monsoon, natural and anthropogenic aerosols reduce the solar flux reaching the surface by 25 W m�2, leading to 10–15% less insolation at the surface. A doubling of black carbon (BC) emissions from Asia results in an aerosol single-scattering albedo that is much smaller than in situ measurements, reflecting the fact that BC emissions are not underestimated in proportion to other (mostly scattering) aerosol types. South Asia is the dominant contributor to sulfate aerosols over the INDOEX region and accounts for 60–70% of the AOD by sulfate. It is also an important but not the dominant contributor to carbonaceous aerosols over the INDOEX region with a contribution of less than 40% to the AOD by this aerosol species. The presence of elevated plumes brings significant quantities of aerosols to the Indian Ocean that are generated over Africa and Southeast and east Asia.
Resumo:
During April and May 2010 the ash cloud from the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull caused widespread disruption to aviation over northern Europe. The location and impact of the eruption led to a wealth of observations of the ash cloud were being obtained which can be used to assess modelling of the long range transport of ash in the troposphere. The UK FAAM (Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements) BAe-146-301 research aircraft overflew the ash cloud on a number of days during May. The aircraft carries a downward looking lidar which detected the ash layer through the backscatter of the laser light. In this study ash concentrations derived from the lidar are compared with simulations of the ash cloud made with NAME (Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment), a general purpose atmospheric transport and dispersion model. The simulated ash clouds are compared to the lidar data to determine how well NAME simulates the horizontal and vertical structure of the ash clouds. Comparison between the ash concentrations derived from the lidar and those from NAME is used to define the fraction of ash emitted in the eruption that is transported over long distances compared to the total emission of tephra. In making these comparisons possible position errors in the simulated ash clouds are identified and accounted for. The ash layers seen by the lidar considered in this study were thin, with typical depths of 550–750 m. The vertical structure of the ash cloud simulated by NAME was generally consistent with the observed ash layers, although the layers in the simulated ash clouds that are identified with observed ash layers are about twice the depth of the observed layers. The structure of the simulated ash clouds were sensitive to the profile of ash emissions that was assumed. In terms of horizontal and vertical structure the best results were obtained by assuming that the emission occurred at the top of the eruption plume, consistent with the observed structure of eruption plumes. However, early in the period when the intensity of the eruption was low, assuming that the emission of ash was uniform with height gives better guidance on the horizontal and vertical structure of the ash cloud. Comparison of the lidar concentrations with those from NAME show that 2–5% of the total mass erupted by the volcano remained in the ash cloud over the United Kingdom.
Resumo:
We use a stratosphere–troposphere composition–climate model with interactive sulfur chemistry and aerosol microphysics, to investigate the effect of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption on stratospheric aerosol properties. Satellite measurements indicate that shortly after the eruption, between 14 and 23 Tg of SO2 (7 to 11.5 Tg of sulfur) was present in the tropical stratosphere. Best estimates of the peak global stratospheric aerosol burden are in the range 19 to 26 Tg, or 3.7 to 6.7 Tg of sulfur assuming a composition of between 59 and 77 % H2SO4. In light of this large uncertainty range, we performed two main simulations with 10 and 20 Tg of SO2 injected into the tropical lower stratosphere. Simulated stratospheric aerosol properties through the 1991 to 1995 period are compared against a range of available satellite and in situ measurements. Stratospheric aerosol optical depth (sAOD) and effective radius from both simulations show good qualitative agreement with the observations, with the timing of peak sAOD and decay timescale matching well with the observations in the tropics and mid-latitudes. However, injecting 20 Tg gives a factor of 2 too high stratospheric aerosol mass burden compared to the satellite data, with consequent strong high biases in simulated sAOD and surface area density, with the 10 Tg injection in much better agreement. Our model cannot explain the large fraction of the injected sulfur that the satellite-derived SO2 and aerosol burdens indicate was removed within the first few months after the eruption. We suggest that either there is an additional alternative loss pathway for the SO2 not included in our model (e.g. via accommodation into ash or ice in the volcanic cloud) or that a larger proportion of the injected sulfur was removed via cross-tropopause transport than in our simulations. We also critically evaluate the simulated evolution of the particle size distribution, comparing in detail to balloon-borne optical particle counter (OPC) measurements from Laramie, Wyoming, USA (41° N). Overall, the model captures remarkably well the complex variations in particle concentration profiles across the different OPC size channels. However, for the 19 to 27 km injection height-range used here, both runs have a modest high bias in the lowermost stratosphere for the finest particles (radii less than 250 nm), and the decay timescale is longer in the model for these particles, with a much later return to background conditions. Also, whereas the 10 Tg run compared best to the satellite measurements, a significant low bias is apparent in the coarser size channels in the volcanically perturbed lower stratosphere. Overall, our results suggest that, with appropriate calibration, aerosol microphysics models are capable of capturing the observed variation in particle size distribution in the stratosphere across both volcanically perturbed and quiescent conditions. Furthermore, additional sensitivity simulations suggest that predictions with the models are robust to uncertainties in sub-grid particle formation and nucleation rates in the stratosphere.
Resumo:
Climate models are potentially useful tools for addressing human dispersals and demographic change. The Arabian Peninsula is becoming increasingly significant in the story of human dispersals out of Africa during the Late Pleistocene. Although characterised largely by arid environments today, emerging climate records indicate that the peninsula was wetter many times in the past, suggesting that the region may have been inhabited considerably more than hitherto thought. Explaining the origins and spatial distribution of increased rainfall is challenging because palaeoenvironmental research in the region is in an early developmental stage. We address environmental oscillations by assembling and analysing an ensemble of five global climate models (CCSM3, COSMOS, HadCM3, KCM, and NorESM). We focus on precipitation, as the variable is key for the development of lakes, rivers and savannas. The climate models generated here were compared with published palaeoenvironmental data such as palaeolakes, speleothems and alluvial fan records as a means of validation. All five models showed, to varying degrees, that the Arabia Peninsula was significantly wetter than today during the Last Interglacial (130 ka and 126/125 ka timeslices), and that the main source of increased rainfall was from the North African summer monsoon rather than the Indian Ocean monsoon or from Mediterranean climate patterns. Where available, 104 ka (MIS 5c), 56 ka (early MIS 3) and 21 ka (LGM) timeslices showed rainfall was present but not as extensive as during the Last Interglacial. The results favour the hypothesis that humans potentially moved out of Africa and into Arabia on multiple occasions during pluvial phases of the Late Pleistocene.
Resumo:
The decision to close airspace in the event of a volcanic eruption is based on hazard maps of predicted ash extent. These are produced using output from volcanic ash transport and dispersion (VATD)models. In this paper an objectivemetric to evaluate the spatial accuracy of VATD simulations relative to satellite retrievals of volcanic ash is presented. The 5 metric is based on the fractions skill score (FSS). Thismeasure of skill provides more information than traditional point-bypoint metrics, such as success index and Pearson correlation coefficient, as it takes into the account spatial scale overwhich skill is being assessed. The FSS determines the scale overwhich a simulation has skill and can differentiate between a "near miss" and a forecast that is badly misplaced. The 10 idealised scenarios presented show that even simulations with considerable displacement errors have useful skill when evaluated over neighbourhood scales of 200–700km2. This method could be used to compare forecasts produced by different VATDs or using different model parameters, assess the impact of assimilating satellite retrieved ash data and evaluate VATD forecasts over a long time period.
Resumo:
In the event of a volcanic eruption the decision to close airspace is based on forecast ash maps, produced using volcanic ash transport and dispersion models. In this paper we quantitatively evaluate the spatial skill of volcanic ash simulations using satellite retrievals of ash from the Eyja allajökull eruption during the period from 7 to 16 May 2010. We find that at the start of this period, 7–10 May, the model (FLEXible PARTicle) has excellent skill and can predict the spatial distribution of the satellite-retrieved ash to within 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ latitude/longitude. However, on 10 May there is a decrease in the spatial accuracy of the model to 2.5∘× 2.5∘ latitude/longitude, and between 11 and 12 May the simulated ash location errors grow rapidly. On 11 May ash is located close to a bifurcation point in the atmosphere, resulting in a rapid divergence in the modeled and satellite ash locations. In general, the model skill reduces as the residence time of ash increases. However, the error growth is not always steady. Rapid increases in error growth are linked to key points in the ash trajectories. Ensemble modeling using perturbed meteorological data would help to represent this uncertainty, and assimilation of satellite ash data would help to reduce uncertainty in volcanic ash forecasts.
Pozzolanic behavior of bamboo leaf ash: Characterization and determination of the kinetic parameters
Resumo:
The paper presents a characterization and study of the pozzolanic behavior between calcium hydroxide (CH) and bamboo leaf ash (BLAsh), which was obtained by calcining bamboo leaves at 600 degrees C for 2 h in a laboratory electric furnace. To evaluate the pozzolanic behavior the conductometric method was used, which is based on the measurement of the electrical conductivity in a BLAsh/CH solution with the reaction time. Later, the kinetic parameters are quantified by applying a kinetic-diffusive model. The kinetic parameters that characterize the process (in particular, the reaction rate constant and free energy of activation) were determined with relative accuracy in the fitting process of the model. The pozzolanic activity is quantitatively evaluated according to the values obtained of the kinetic parameters. Other experimental techniques, such as X-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM), were also employed. The results show that this kind of ash is formed by silica with a completely amorphous nature and a high pozzolanic activity. The correlation between the values of free energy of activation (Delta G(#)) and the reaction rate constants (K) are in correspondence with the theoretical studies about the rate processes reported in the literature. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
This paper presents a study of the pozzolanic reaction kinetics between calcium hydroxide and a mixture of sugar cane bagasse with 20 and 30% of clay, burned at 800 and 1000 degrees C (SCBCA) by electrical conductivity measurements. A kinetic-diffusive model produced in previous studies by some of the authors was used. The model was fitted to the experimental data, which allowed the computation of the kinetic parameters of the pozzolanic reaction (reaction rate constant and free energy of activation) that rigorously characterised the pozzolanic activity of the materials. The results show that SCBCA demonstrated reactivity and good pozzolanic qualities in the range 800-1000 degrees C.
Resumo:
With the need of the companies in becoming more competitive within the market, it arises an incessant search for selective human potential, with a high level of capacity and low rotativity, which motivation results in production raise, quality optimization and waste reduction. This scenario requires a strategy development which advantages the Human Resources Quality Management. This way, the model of the Human System Audit (HSA), developed by the Spanish researchers Ouijano and Navarro, presents itself as an important tool to diagnosis and evaluation, contemplating the environment where the organization is inserted, its strategies, its organizational design, its processes and its organizational effectiveness. In this sense, the present study has identified the existent relation between the professional satisfaction and the Organizational Culture, based in the model HSA. The research has been a quantitative-descriptive one and has had as population the technical-administrative workers from the Federal Center of Technical Education of Rio Grande do Norte (CEFET RN). The data collection has occurred during May, 2008, by means of the application of a questionnaire in the HSA model. The sample was composed by 167 subjects, distributed among the Five units of the institution. It was used the factorial analysis, with the extraction method of main components and orthogonal rotation varimax, in order to extract the dimensions of the satisfaction and of the organizational culture and the calculation of Cronbach s Alpha coefficient, to evaluate the reliability of these dimensions. The factorial analysis of the satisfaction indicators has identified four factors,, all of them showing significance: gratefulness and relationship , self-realization , stability and security and physical conditions and social benefits . The result of the factorial analysis with the indicators of the organizational culture has extracted four factors and among them, three of them have obtained significance: Personal Satisfaction Style , Competitive-Denial-Power Style and the Conventional-Dependent Style . After identifying the dimensions of the satisfaction and culture found at CEFET-RN, it has been notice the existence or not of relation among them, through the application of Pearson s coefficient. It has been verified that all of the dimensions of the Professional satisfaction are correlated with some dimension of the organizational culture, having in outstand position, with higher intensity, the relation between the culture style of Personal Satisfaction and the satisfaction factor referring to the self-realization