902 resultados para ARCH-in-mean
Resumo:
This paper examines the causalities in mean and variance between stock returns and Foreign Institutional Investment (FII) in India. The analysis in this paper applies the Cross Correlation Function approach from Cheung and Ng (1996), and uses daily data for the timeframe of January 1999 to March 2008 divided into two periods before and after May 2003. Empirical results showed that there are uni-directional causalities in mean and variance from stock returns to FII flows irrelevant of the sample periods, while the reverse causalities in mean and variance are only found in the period beginning with 2003. These results point to FII flows having exerted an impact on the movement of Indian stock prices during the more recent period.
Resumo:
Ponencia en el II Congreso Internacional de Historia de la Construcción celebrado en Cambridge (Reino Unido).
Resumo:
Previous studies (e.g., Hamori, 2000; Ho and Tsui, 2003; Fountas et al., 2004) find high volatility persistence of economic growth rates using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) specifications. This paper reexamines the Japanese case, using the same approach and showing that this finding of high volatility persistence reflects the Great Moderation, which features a sharp decline in the variance as well as two falls in the mean of the growth rates identified by Bai and Perronâs (1998, 2003) multiple structural change test. Our empirical results provide new evidence. First, excess kurtosis drops substantially or disappears in the GARCH or exponential GARCH model that corrects for an additive outlier. Second, using the outlier-corrected data, the integrated GARCH effect or high volatility persistence remains in the specification once we introduce intercept-shift dummies into the mean equation. Third, the time-varying variance falls sharply, only when we incorporate the break in the variance equation. Fourth, the ARCH in mean model finds no effects of our more correct measure of output volatility on output growth or of output growth on its volatility.
Resumo:
United States Phillips curves are routinely estimated without accounting for the shifts in mean inflation. As a result we may expect the standard estimates of Phillips curves to be biased and suffer from ARCH. We demonstrate this is indeed the case. We also demonstrate that once the shifts in mean inflation are accounted for the ARCH is largely eliminated in the estimated model and the model defining expected rate of inflation in the New Keynesian model plays no significant role in the dynamics of inflation.
Resumo:
CONTEXT: Fatigue-induced alterations in foot mechanics may lead to structural overload and injury. OBJECTIVES: To investigate how a high-intensity running exercise to exhaustion modifies ankle plantar-flexor and dorsiflexor strength and fatigability, as well as plantar-pressure distribution in adolescent runners. DESIGN: Controlled laboratory study. SETTING: Academy research laboratory. PATIENTS OR OTHER PARTICIPANTS: Eleven male adolescent distance runners (age = 16.9 ± 2.0 years, height = 170.6 ± 10.9 cm, mass = 54.6 ± 8.6 kg) were tested. INTERVENTION(S): All participants performed an exhausting run on a treadmill. An isokinetic plantar-flexor and dorsiflexor maximal-strength test and a fatigue test were performed before and after the exhausting run. Plantar-pressure distribution was assessed at the beginning and end of the exhausting run. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): We recorded plantar-flexor and dorsiflexor peak torques and calculated the fatigue index. Plantar-pressure measurements were recorded 1 minute after the start of the run and before exhaustion. Plantar variables (ie, mean area, contact time, mean pressure, relative load) were determined for 9 selected regions. RESULTS: Isokinetic peak torques were similar before and after the run in both muscle groups, whereas the fatigue index increased in plantar flexion (28.1%; P = .01) but not in dorsiflexion. For the whole foot, mean pressure decreased from 1 minute to the end (-3.4%; P = .003); however, mean area (9.5%; P = .005) and relative load (7.2%; P = .009) increased under the medial midfoot, and contact time increased under the central forefoot (8.3%; P = .01) and the lesser toes (8.9%; P = .008). CONCLUSIONS: Fatigue resistance in the plantar flexors declined after a high-intensity running bout performed by adolescent male distance runners. This phenomenon was associated with increased loading under the medial arch in the fatigued state but without any excessive pronation.
Resumo:
Les questions abordées dans les deux premiers articles de ma thèse cherchent à comprendre les facteurs économiques qui affectent la structure à terme des taux d'intérêt et la prime de risque. Je construis des modèles non linéaires d'équilibre général en y intégrant des obligations de différentes échéances. Spécifiquement, le premier article a pour objectif de comprendre la relation entre les facteurs macroéconomiques et le niveau de prime de risque dans un cadre Néo-keynésien d'équilibre général avec incertitude. L'incertitude dans le modèle provient de trois sources : les chocs de productivité, les chocs monétaires et les chocs de préférences. Le modèle comporte deux types de rigidités réelles à savoir la formation des habitudes dans les préférences et les coûts d'ajustement du stock de capital. Le modèle est résolu par la méthode des perturbations à l'ordre deux et calibré à l'économie américaine. Puisque la prime de risque est par nature une compensation pour le risque, l'approximation d'ordre deux implique que la prime de risque est une combinaison linéaire des volatilités des trois chocs. Les résultats montrent qu'avec les paramètres calibrés, les chocs réels (productivité et préférences) jouent un rôle plus important dans la détermination du niveau de la prime de risque relativement aux chocs monétaires. Je montre que contrairement aux travaux précédents (dans lesquels le capital de production est fixe), l'effet du paramètre de la formation des habitudes sur la prime de risque dépend du degré des coûts d'ajustement du capital. Lorsque les coûts d'ajustement du capital sont élevés au point que le stock de capital est fixe à l'équilibre, une augmentation du paramètre de formation des habitudes entraine une augmentation de la prime de risque. Par contre, lorsque les agents peuvent librement ajuster le stock de capital sans coûts, l'effet du paramètre de la formation des habitudes sur la prime de risque est négligeable. Ce résultat s'explique par le fait que lorsque le stock de capital peut être ajusté sans coûts, cela ouvre un canal additionnel de lissage de consommation pour les agents. Par conséquent, l'effet de la formation des habitudes sur la prime de risque est amoindri. En outre, les résultats montrent que la façon dont la banque centrale conduit sa politique monétaire a un effet sur la prime de risque. Plus la banque centrale est agressive vis-à-vis de l'inflation, plus la prime de risque diminue et vice versa. Cela est due au fait que lorsque la banque centrale combat l'inflation cela entraine une baisse de la variance de l'inflation. Par suite, la prime de risque due au risque d'inflation diminue. Dans le deuxième article, je fais une extension du premier article en utilisant des préférences récursives de type Epstein -- Zin et en permettant aux volatilités conditionnelles des chocs de varier avec le temps. L'emploi de ce cadre est motivé par deux raisons. D'abord des études récentes (Doh, 2010, Rudebusch and Swanson, 2012) ont montré que ces préférences sont appropriées pour l'analyse du prix des actifs dans les modèles d'équilibre général. Ensuite, l'hétéroscedasticité est une caractéristique courante des données économiques et financières. Cela implique que contrairement au premier article, l'incertitude varie dans le temps. Le cadre dans cet article est donc plus général et plus réaliste que celui du premier article. L'objectif principal de cet article est d'examiner l'impact des chocs de volatilités conditionnelles sur le niveau et la dynamique des taux d'intérêt et de la prime de risque. Puisque la prime de risque est constante a l'approximation d'ordre deux, le modèle est résolu par la méthode des perturbations avec une approximation d'ordre trois. Ainsi on obtient une prime de risque qui varie dans le temps. L'avantage d'introduire des chocs de volatilités conditionnelles est que cela induit des variables d'état supplémentaires qui apportent une contribution additionnelle à la dynamique de la prime de risque. Je montre que l'approximation d'ordre trois implique que les primes de risque ont une représentation de type ARCH-M (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticty in Mean) comme celui introduit par Engle, Lilien et Robins (1987). La différence est que dans ce modèle les paramètres sont structurels et les volatilités sont des volatilités conditionnelles de chocs économiques et non celles des variables elles-mêmes. J'estime les paramètres du modèle par la méthode des moments simulés (SMM) en utilisant des données de l'économie américaine. Les résultats de l'estimation montrent qu'il y a une évidence de volatilité stochastique dans les trois chocs. De plus, la contribution des volatilités conditionnelles des chocs au niveau et à la dynamique de la prime de risque est significative. En particulier, les effets des volatilités conditionnelles des chocs de productivité et de préférences sont significatifs. La volatilité conditionnelle du choc de productivité contribue positivement aux moyennes et aux écart-types des primes de risque. Ces contributions varient avec la maturité des bonds. La volatilité conditionnelle du choc de préférences quant à elle contribue négativement aux moyennes et positivement aux variances des primes de risque. Quant au choc de volatilité de la politique monétaire, son impact sur les primes de risque est négligeable. Le troisième article (coécrit avec Eric Schaling, Alain Kabundi, révisé et resoumis au journal of Economic Modelling) traite de l'hétérogénéité dans la formation des attentes d'inflation de divers groupes économiques et de leur impact sur la politique monétaire en Afrique du sud. La question principale est d'examiner si différents groupes d'agents économiques forment leurs attentes d'inflation de la même façon et s'ils perçoivent de la même façon la politique monétaire de la banque centrale (South African Reserve Bank). Ainsi on spécifie un modèle de prédiction d'inflation qui nous permet de tester l'arrimage des attentes d'inflation à la bande d'inflation cible (3% - 6%) de la banque centrale. Les données utilisées sont des données d'enquête réalisée par la banque centrale auprès de trois groupes d'agents : les analystes financiers, les firmes et les syndicats. On exploite donc la structure de panel des données pour tester l'hétérogénéité dans les attentes d'inflation et déduire leur perception de la politique monétaire. Les résultats montrent qu'il y a évidence d'hétérogénéité dans la manière dont les différents groupes forment leurs attentes. Les attentes des analystes financiers sont arrimées à la bande d'inflation cible alors que celles des firmes et des syndicats ne sont pas arrimées. En effet, les firmes et les syndicats accordent un poids significatif à l'inflation retardée d'une période et leurs prédictions varient avec l'inflation réalisée (retardée). Ce qui dénote un manque de crédibilité parfaite de la banque centrale au vu de ces agents.
Resumo:
Previous assessments of the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality use the "delta method" to create temperature projection time series that are applied to temperature-mortality models to estimate future mortality impacts. The delta method means that climate model bias in the modelled present does not influence the temperature projection time series and impacts. However, the delta method assumes that climate change will result only in a change in the mean temperature but there is evidence that there will also be changes in the variability of temperature with climate change. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of considering changes in temperature variability with climate change in impacts assessments of future heat-related mortality. We investigate future heatrelated mortality impacts in six cities (Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney) by applying temperature projections from the UK Meteorological Office HadCM3 climate model to the temperature-mortality models constructed and validated in Part 1. We investigate the impacts for four cases based on various combinations of mean and variability changes in temperature with climate change. The results demonstrate that higher mortality is attributed to increases in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change rather than with the change in mean temperature alone. This has implications for interpreting existing impacts estimates that have used the delta method. We present a novel method for the creation of temperature projection time series that includes changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change and is not influenced by climate model bias in the modelled present. The method should be useful for future impacts assessments. Few studies consider the implications that the limitations of the climate model may have on the heatrelated mortality impacts. Here, we demonstrate the importance of considering this by conducting an evaluation of the daily and extreme temperatures from HadCM3, which demonstrates that the estimates of future heat-related mortality for Dallas and Lisbon may be overestimated due to positive climate model bias. Likewise, estimates for Boston and London may be underestimated due to negative climate model bias. Finally, we briefly consider uncertainties in the impacts associated with greenhouse gas emissions and acclimatisation. The uncertainties in the mortality impacts due to different emissions scenarios of greenhouse gases in the future varied considerably by location. Allowing for acclimatisation to an extra 2°C in mean temperatures reduced future heat-related mortality by approximately half that of no acclimatisation in each city.
Resumo:
The suppression of erythropoiesis by Hydroxyurea (HU) therapy is associated with increase in mean corpuscular volume, in addition to the increase in Hb F. Monitoring the mean corpuscular volume values and the presence of macrocytosis are effective tools of adherence to the treatment with HU in patients with sickle cell anemia. The aim of this study is to monitor the mean corpuscular volume values after starting treatment with HU to determine if macrocytosis can be used as a surrogate marker of compliance with therapy. We conducted a prospective cohort study over one year with measurements of blood counts and mean corpuscular volume after starting therapy with HU in 95 patients with sickle cell anemia who were regularly followed in our ambulatory outpatient unit. In one-year of successful use of HU the mean value of the mean corpuscular volume increased significantly. The Andersen and Gill model demonstrated that the increase of one unit of MCV implies a 5% reduction in the risk of visiting the emergency room. Monitoring mean corpuscular volume values after prescribing HU alerts the provider of noncompliance in order to counsel the patient in question for better adherence to the use of HU that could improve the quality of care and to reduce morbidity and the frequency of acute pain crises and associated healthcare costs.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus (DM) and renal insufficiency (RI) were shown to be associated with an obstructive lesion pattern favouring distal lower limb arterial segments in patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD). We hypothesized that presence of DM is associated with pronounced involvement of the tibioperoneal arteries, whereas RI predominantly affects the pedal arch. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A consecutive series of PAD patients (mean age 75 +/- 10 years, 40 women) with RI alone (n = 15), RI and DM (n = 25), DM alone (n = 25) and without RI or DM (n = 25) underwent diagnostic angiography. We analyzed the obstructive burden of different segments of the infrageniculate arterial tree using the Bollinger score as well as accessibility of pedal arteries for bypass surgery. RESULTS: In patients with DM and in patients with RI the mean total obstructive burden was higher in pedal as compared to tibioperoneal arteries (9.79 +/- 4.60 vs. 6.99 +/- 3.45, p = 0.03;10.50 +/- 5.53 vs. 6.88 +/- 4.12, p = 0.05, respectively). However, rates of patency of at least one pedal artery were significantly lower in patients with RI and RI/DM as compared to controls (47% and 48% vs. 80%, respectively; p = 0.007), whereas patency was comparable between patients with diabetes alone and controls (72% vs. 80%, ns). Rates of viability of pedal arteries as an attachment site for distal bypass was 80%, 68%, 47% and 44% in controls, patients with DM alone, RI alone and RI/DM, respectively (p = 0.0042). CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to previous anecdotal observations, both DM and RI are associated with a high atherosclerotic burden of the pedal arch in the present angiographic series. The presence of RI, however, is associated with a lower patency of the pedal arch as compared to the presence of DM alone, and more than fifty percent patients are unsuitable for distal bypass grafting.
Resumo:
PURPOSE To develop a method for computing and visualizing pressure differences derived from time-resolved velocity-encoded three-dimensional phase-contrast magnetic resonance imaging (4D flow MRI) and to compare pressure difference maps of patients with unrepaired and repaired aortic coarctation to young healthy volunteers. METHODS 4D flow MRI data of four patients with aortic coarctation either before or after repair (mean age 17 years, age range 3-28, one female, three males) and four young healthy volunteers without history of cardiovascular disease (mean age 24 years, age range 20-27, one female, three males) was acquired using a 1.5-T clinical MR scanner. Image analysis was performed with in-house developed image processing software. Relative pressures were computed based on the Navier-Stokes equation. RESULTS A standardized method for intuitive visualization of pressure difference maps was developed and successfully applied to all included patients and volunteers. Young healthy volunteers exhibited smooth and regular distribution of relative pressures in the thoracic aorta at mid systole with very similar distribution in all analyzed volunteers. Patients demonstrated disturbed pressures compared to volunteers. Changes included a pressure drop at the aortic isthmus in all patients, increased relative pressures in the aortic arch in patients with residual narrowing after repair, and increased relative pressures in the descending aorta in a patient after patch aortoplasty. CONCLUSIONS Pressure difference maps derived from 4D flow MRI can depict alterations of spatial pressure distribution in patients with repaired and unrepaired aortic coarctation. The technique might allow identifying pathophysiological conditions underlying complications after aortic coarctation repair.
Resumo:
Mean corpuscular volume, which is an inexpensive and widely available measure to assess, increases in HIV infected individuals receiving zidovudine and stavudine raising the hypothesis that it could be used as a surrogate for adherence.^ The aim of this study was to examine the association between mean corpuscular volume and adherence to antiretroviral therapy among HIV infected children and adolescents aged 0–19 years in Uganda as well as the extent to which changes in mean corpuscular volume predict adherence as determined by virologic suppression.^ The investigator retrospectively reviewed and analyzed secondary data of 158 HIV infected children and adolescents aged 0–19 years who initiated antiretroviral therapy under an observational cohort at the Baylor College of Medicine Children's Foundation - Uganda. Viral suppression was used as the gold standard for monitoring adherence and defined as viral load of < 400 copies/ml at 24 and 48 weeks. ^ Patients were at least 48 weeks on therapy, age 0.2–18.4 years, 54.4% female, 82.3% on zidovudine based regimen, 92% WHO stage III at initiation of therapy, median pre therapy MCV 80.6 fl (70.3–98.3 fl), median CD4% 10.2% (0.3%–28.0%), and mean pre therapy viral load 407,712.9 ± 270,413.9 copies/ml. For both 24 and 48 weeks of antiretroviral therapy, patients with viral suppression had a greater mean percentage change in mean corpuscular volume (15.1% ± 8.4 vs. 11.1% ± 7.8 and 2.3% ± 13.2 vs. -2.7% ± 10.5 respectively). The mean percentage change in mean corpuscular volume was greater in the first 24 weeks of therapy for patients with and without viral suppression (15.1% ± 8.4 vs. 2.3% ± 13.2 and 11.1% ± 7.8 vs. -2.7% ± 10.5 respectively). In the multivariate logistic regression model, percentage change in mean corpuscular volume ≥ 20% was significantly associated with viral suppression (adjusted OR 4.0; CI 1.2–13.3; p value 0.02). The ability of percentage changes in MCV to correctly identify children and adolescents with viral suppression was higher at a cut off of ≥ 20% (90.7%; sensitivity, 31.7%) than at ≥ 9% (82.9%; sensitivity, 78.9%). Negative predictive value was lower at ≥ 20% change (25%; specificity, 84.8%) than at ≥ 9% change (33.3%; specificity, 39.4%).^ Mean corpuscular volume is a useful marker of adherence among children and adolescents with viral suppression. ^
Resumo:
Background: Although a lowered medial longitudinal arch has been cited as a causal factor in plantar fasciitis, there is little experimental evidence linking arch motion to the pathogenesis of the condition. This study investigated the sagittal movement of the arch in subjects with and without plantar fasciitis during gait. Methods: Digital fluoroscopy was used to acquire dynamic lateral radiographs from 10 subjects with unilateral plantar fasciitis and 10 matched control subjects. The arch angle and the first metatarsophalangeal joint angle were digitized and their respective maxima recorded. Sagittal movement of the arch was defined as the angular change between heel strike and the maximum arch angle observed during the stance phase of gait. The-thickness of the proximal plantar fascia was determined from sagittal sonograms of both feet. ANOVA models were used to identify differences between limbs with respect to each dependent variable. Relationships between arch movement and fascial thickness were investigated using correlations. Results: There was no significant difference in either the movement or maximum arch angle between limbs. However, subjects with plantar fasciitis were found to have a larger metatarsophalangeal joint angle than controls (P < 0.05). Whereas the symptomatic and asymptomatic plantar fascia were thicker than those of control feet (P < 0.05), significant correlations were noted between fascial thickness and peak arch and metatarsophalangeal joint angles (P < 0.05) in the symptomatic limb only. Conclusions: Neither abnormal shape nor movement of the arch are associated with chronic plantar fasciitis. However, arch mechanics may influence the severity of plantar fasciitis once the condition is present. Digital flexion, in contrast, has a protective role in what might be a bilateral disease process.
Resumo:
Nearly 50% of patients with heart failure (HF) have preserved LV ejection fraction, with interstitial fibrosis and cardiomyocyte hypertrophy as early manifestations of pressure overload. However, methods to assess both tissue characteristics dynamically and noninvasively with therapy are lacking. We measured the effects of mineralocorticoid receptor blockade on tissue phenotypes in LV pressure overload using cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR). Mice were randomized to l-nitro-ω-methyl ester (l-NAME, 3 mg/mL in water; n=22), or l-NAME with spironolactone (50 mg/kg/day in subcutaneous pellets; n=21). Myocardial extracellular volume (ECV; marker of diffuse interstitial fibrosis) and the intracellular lifetime of water (τic; marker of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy) were determined by CMR T1 imaging at baseline and after 7 weeks of therapy alongside histological assessments. Administration of l-NAME induced hypertensive heart disease in mice, with increases in mean arterial pressure, LV mass, ECV, and τic compared with placebo-treated controls, while LV ejection fraction was preserved (>50%). In comparison, animals receiving both spironolactone and l-NAME (l-NAME+S) showed less concentric remodeling, and a lower myocardial ECV and τic, indicating decreased interstitial fibrosis and cardiomyocyte hypertrophy (ECV: 0.43 ± 0.09 for l-NAME versus 0.25 ± 0.03 for l-NAME+S, P<0.001; τic: 0.42 ± 0.11 for l-NAME groups versus 0.12 ± 0.05 for l-NAME+S group). Mice treated with a combination of l-NAME and spironolactone were similar to placebo-treated controls at 7 weeks. Spironolactone attenuates interstitial fibrosis and cardiomyocyte hypertrophy in hypertensive heart disease. CMR can phenotype myocardial tissue remodeling in pressure-overload, furthering our understanding of HF progression.
Resumo:
PURPOSE: To determine the mean critical fusion frequency and the short-term fluctuation, to analyze the influence of age, gender, and the learning effect in healthy subjects undergoing flicker perimetry. METHODS: Study 1 - 95 healthy subjects underwent flicker perimetry once in one eye. Mean critical fusion frequency values were compared between genders, and the influence of age was evaluated using linear regression analysis. Study 2 - 20 healthy subjects underwent flicker perimetry 5 times in one eye. The first 3 sessions were separated by an interval of 1 to 30 days, whereas the last 3 sessions were performed within the same day. The first 3 sessions were used to investigate the presence of a learning effect, whereas the last 3 tests were used to calculate short-term fluctuation. RESULTS: Study 1 - Linear regression analysis demonstrated that mean global, foveal, central, and critical fusion frequency per quadrant significantly decreased with age (p<0.05).There were no statistically significant differences in mean critical fusion frequency values between males and females (p>0.05), with the exception of the central area and inferonasal quadrant (p=0.049 and p=0.011, respectively), where the values were lower in females. Study 2 - Mean global (p=0.014), central (p=0.008), and peripheral (p=0.03) critical fusion frequency were significantly lower in the first session compared to the second and third sessions. The mean global short-term fluctuation was 5.06±1.13 Hz, the mean interindividual and intraindividual variabilities were 11.2±2.8% and 6.4±1.5%, respectively. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that, in healthy subjects, critical fusion frequency decreases with age, that flicker perimetry is associated with a learning effect, and that a moderately high short-term fluctuation is expected.
Resumo:
Objectives. To evaluate lipid profile changes after anti-TNF therapy in patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA). Methods. Fifteen PsA patients (eight polyarticular, four oligoarticular, two axial, and one mutilating) under infliximab were included. None had dyslipoproteinemia or previous statin use. Total cholesterol (TC) and its fractions, inflammatory markers, and prednisone use were evaluated. Results. The comparisons of lipid levels between baseline and after three months (3M) of anti-TNF therapy showed that there was a significant increase in mean triglycerides (117.8 +/- 49.7 versus 140.1 +/- 64.1 mg/dL, P = 0.028) and VLDL-c (23.6 +/- 10.5 versus 28.4 +/- 13.7 mg/dL, P = 0.019) levels. In contrast, there were no differences in the mean TC (P = 0.28), LDL-c (P = 0.42), and HDL-c (P = 0.26) levels. Analysis of the frequencies of each lipid alteration at baseline and at 3M were alike (P > 0.05). Positive correlations were found between VLDL-c and CRP (r = 0.647, P = 0.009) and between triglycerides and CRP (r = 0.604, P = 0.017) levels at 3M. ESR reduction was observed after 3M (P = 0.04). Mean prednisone dose remained stable at beginning and at 3M (P = 0.37). Conclusion. This study demonstrated that anti-TNF may increase TG and VLDL-c levels in PsA patients after three months.