989 resultados para ABC model
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As media institutions are encouraged to explore new production methodologies in the current economic crisis, they align with Schumpeter’s creative destruction provocation by exhibiting user-led political, organisation and socio-technical innovations. This paper highlights the significance of the cultural intermediary within the innovative, co-creative production arrangements for cultural artefacts by media professionals in institutional online communities. An institutional online community is defined as one that is housed, resourced and governed by commercial or non- commercial institutions and is not independently facilitated. Web 2.0 technologies have mobilised collaborative peer production activities for online content creation and professional media institutions face challenges in engaging participatory audiences in practices that are beneficial for all concerned stakeholders. The interests of those stakeholders often do not align, highlighting the need for an intermediary role that understands and translates the norms, rhetoric tropes and day-to-day activities between the individuals engaging in participatory communication activities for successful negotiation within the production process. This paper specifically explores the participatory relationship between the public service broadcaster (PSB), the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) and one of its online communities, ABC Pool (www.abc.net.au/pool). ABC Pool is an online platform developed and resourced by the ABC to encourage co-creation between audience members engaging in the production of user-generated content (UGC) and the professional producers housed within the ABC Radio Division. This empirical research emerges from a three-year research project where I employed an ethnographic action research methodology and was embedded at the ABC as the community manager of ABC Pool. In participatory communication environments, users favour meritocratic heterarchical governance over traditional institutional hierarchical systems (Malaby 2009). A reputation environment based on meritocracy requires an intermediary to identify the stakeholders, understand their interests and communicate effectively between them to negotiate successful production outcomes (Bruns 2008; Banks 2009). The community manager generally occupies this role, however it has emerged that other institutional production environments also employ an intermediary role under alternative monikers(Hutchinson 2012). A useful umbrella term to encompass the myriad of roles within this space is the cultural intermediary. The ABC has experimented with three institutional online community governance models that engage in cultural intermediation in differing decentralised capacities. The first and most closed is a single point of contact model where one cultural intermediary controls all of the communication of the participatory project. The second is a model of multiple cultural intermediaries engaging in communication between the institutional online community stakeholders simultaneously. The third is most open yet problematic as it promotes and empowers community participants to the level of cultural intermediaries. This paper uses the ABC Pool case study to highlight the differing levels of openness within cultural intermediation during the co-creative production process of a cultural artifact.
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We present a novel approach for developing summary statistics for use in approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithms using indirect infer- ence. We embed this approach within a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm that is completely adaptive. This methodological development was motivated by an application involving data on macroparasite population evolution modelled with a trivariate Markov process. The main objective of the analysis is to compare inferences on the Markov process when considering two di®erent indirect mod- els. The two indirect models are based on a Beta-Binomial model and a three component mixture of Binomials, with the former providing a better ¯t to the observed data.
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Approximate Bayesian Computation’ (ABC) represents a powerful methodology for the analysis of complex stochastic systems for which the likelihood of the observed data under an arbitrary set of input parameters may be entirely intractable – the latter condition rendering useless the standard machinery of tractable likelihood-based, Bayesian statistical inference [e.g. conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation]. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of ABC for astronomical model analysis by application to a case study in the morphological transformation of high-redshift galaxies. To this end, we develop, first, a stochastic model for the competing processes of merging and secular evolution in the early Universe, and secondly, through an ABC-based comparison against the observed demographics of massive (Mgal > 1011 M⊙) galaxies (at 1.5 < z < 3) in the Cosmic Assembly Near-IR Deep Extragalatic Legacy Survey (CANDELS)/Extended Groth Strip (EGS) data set we derive posterior probability densities for the key parameters of this model. The ‘Sequential Monte Carlo’ implementation of ABC exhibited herein, featuring both a self-generating target sequence and self-refining MCMC kernel, is amongst the most efficient of contemporary approaches to this important statistical algorithm. We highlight as well through our chosen case study the value of careful summary statistic selection, and demonstrate two modern strategies for assessment and optimization in this regard. Ultimately, our ABC analysis of the high-redshift morphological mix returns tight constraints on the evolving merger rate in the early Universe and favours major merging (with disc survival or rapid reformation) over secular evolution as the mechanism most responsible for building up the first generation of bulges in early-type discs.
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Analytically or computationally intractable likelihood functions can arise in complex statistical inferential problems making them inaccessible to standard Bayesian inferential methods. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods address such inferential problems by replacing direct likelihood evaluations with repeated sampling from the model. ABC methods have been predominantly applied to parameter estimation problems and less to model choice problems due to the added difficulty of handling multiple model spaces. The ABC algorithm proposed here addresses model choice problems by extending Fearnhead and Prangle (2012, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 74, 1–28) where the posterior mean of the model parameters estimated through regression formed the summary statistics used in the discrepancy measure. An additional stepwise multinomial logistic regression is performed on the model indicator variable in the regression step and the estimated model probabilities are incorporated into the set of summary statistics for model choice purposes. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo step is also included in the algorithm to increase model diversity for thorough exploration of the model space. This algorithm was applied to a validating example to demonstrate the robustness of the algorithm across a wide range of true model probabilities. Its subsequent use in three pathogen transmission examples of varying complexity illustrates the utility of the algorithm in inferring preference of particular transmission models for the pathogens.
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In the Bayesian framework a standard approach to model criticism is to compare some function of the observed data to a reference predictive distribution. The result of the comparison can be summarized in the form of a p-value, and it's well known that computation of some kinds of Bayesian predictive p-values can be challenging. The use of regression adjustment approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods is explored for this task. Two problems are considered. The first is the calibration of posterior predictive p-values so that they are uniformly distributed under some reference distribution for the data. Computation is difficult because the calibration process requires repeated approximation of the posterior for different data sets under the reference distribution. The second problem considered is approximation of distributions of prior predictive p-values for the purpose of choosing weakly informative priors in the case where the model checking statistic is expensive to compute. Here the computation is difficult because of the need to repeatedly sample from a prior predictive distribution for different values of a prior hyperparameter. In both these problems we argue that high accuracy in the computations is not required, which makes fast approximations such as regression adjustment ABC very useful. We illustrate our methods with several samples.
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In this paper, we present a generic method/model for multi-objective design optimization of laminated composite components, based on Vector Evaluated Artificial Bee Colony (VEABC) algorithm. VEABC is a parallel vector evaluated type, swarm intelligence multi-objective variant of the Artificial Bee Colony algorithm (ABC). In the current work a modified version of VEABC algorithm for discrete variables has been developed and implemented successfully for the multi-objective design optimization of composites. The problem is formulated with multiple objectives of minimizing weight and the total cost of the composite component to achieve a specified strength. The primary optimization variables are the number of layers, its stacking sequence (the orientation of the layers) and thickness of each layer. The classical lamination theory is utilized to determine the stresses in the component and the design is evaluated based on three failure criteria: failure mechanism based failure criteria, maximum stress failure criteria and the tsai-wu failure criteria. The optimization method is validated for a number of different loading configurations-uniaxial, biaxial and bending loads. The design optimization has been carried for both variable stacking sequences, as well fixed standard stacking schemes and a comparative study of the different design configurations evolved has been presented. Finally the performance is evaluated in comparison with other nature inspired techniques which includes Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Artificial Immune System (AIS) and Genetic Algorithm (GA). The performance of ABC is at par with that of PSO, AIS and GA for all the loading configurations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Lamellar platelets of triblock copolymers grown in dilute toluene solution with trace amounts of water can be used as templates for tethered diblock copolymer chain preparation and analysis. Polystyrene-bpoly(2-vinylpyridine)-b-poly(ethylene oxide) (PS-b-P2VP-b-PEO) with two different block fractions were used as model templates to generate tethered P2VP-b-PS chains on the platelet basal surfaces. In toluene solution the aggregation states of PS-b-P2VP-b-PEO were sensitive to the water content in the solution. For toluene with trace amount of water, spherical micelles were formed in the early stage and large square platelets would gradually grow from these spherical micelles. The hydrogen bonding between water and EO units was responsible for the formation of micelles and subsequent square platelets in the solution. Tethered P2VP-b-PS chains on basal surface of PEO platelets could be regarded as diblock copolymer brushes and the density (or: 0.086-0.36) and height (d: 3.5-14.3 nm) of these tethered chains could be easily modulated by changing the crystallization condition and/ or the molecular weight of each block. The tethered P2VP-b-PS chains were responsive to different solvent vapor.
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Neuroblastoma (NB) is a neural crest-derived childhood tumor characterized by a remarkable phenotypic diversity, ranging from spontaneous regression to fatal metastatic disease. Although the cancer stem cell (CSC) model provides a trail to characterize the cells responsible for tumor onset, the NB tumor-initiating cell (TIC) has not been identified. In this study, the relevance of the CSC model in NB was investigated by taking advantage of typical functional stem cell characteristics. A predictive association was established between self-renewal, as assessed by serial sphere formation, and clinical aggressiveness in primary tumors. Moreover, cell subsets gradually selected during serial sphere culture harbored increased in vivo tumorigenicity, only highlighted in an orthotopic microenvironment. A microarray time course analysis of serial spheres passages from metastatic cells allowed us to specifically "profile" the NB stem cell-like phenotype and to identify CD133, ABC transporter, and WNT and NOTCH genes as spheres markers. On the basis of combined sphere markers expression, at least two distinct tumorigenic cell subpopulations were identified, also shown to preexist in primary NB. However, sphere markers-mediated cell sorting of parental tumor failed to recapitulate the TIC phenotype in the orthotopic model, highlighting the complexity of the CSC model. Our data support the NB stem-like cells as a dynamic and heterogeneous cell population strongly dependent on microenvironmental signals and add novel candidate genes as potential therapeutic targets in the control of high-risk NB.
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OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between inflammation and heart failure (HF) risk in older adults. BACKGROUND: Inflammation is associated with HF risk factors and also directly affects myocardial function. METHODS: The association of baseline serum concentrations of interleukin (IL)-6, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and C-reactive protein (CRP) with incident HF was assessed with Cox models among 2,610 older persons without prevalent HF enrolled in the Health ABC (Health, Aging, and Body Composition) study (age 73.6 +/- 2.9 years; 48.3% men; 59.6% white). RESULTS: During follow-up (median 9.4 years), HF developed in 311 (11.9%) participants. In models controlling for clinical characteristics, ankle-arm index, and incident coronary heart disease, doubling of IL-6, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and CRP concentrations was associated with 29% (95% confidence interval: 13% to 47%; p < 0.001), 46% (95% confidence interval: 17% to 84%; p = 0.001), and 9% (95% confidence interval: -1% to 24%; p = 0.087) increase in HF risk, respectively. In models including all 3 markers, IL-6, and tumor necrosis factor-alpha, but not CRP, remained significant. These associations were similar across sex and race and persisted in models accounting for death as a competing event. Post-HF ejection fraction was available in 239 (76.8%) cases; inflammatory markers had stronger association with HF with preserved ejection fraction. Repeat IL-6 and CRP determinations at 1-year follow-up did not provide incremental information. Addition of IL-6 to the clinical Health ABC HF model improved model discrimination (C index from 0.717 to 0.734; p = 0.001) and fit (decreased Bayes information criterion by 17.8; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Inflammatory markers are associated with HF risk among older adults and may improve HF risk stratification.
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Statistical methods of inference typically require the likelihood function to be computable in a reasonable amount of time. The class of “likelihood-free” methods termed Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is able to eliminate this requirement, replacing the evaluation of the likelihood with simulation from it. Likelihood-free methods have gained in efficiency and popularity in the past few years, following their integration with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) in order to better explore the parameter space. They have been applied primarily to estimating the parameters of a given model, but can also be used to compare models. Here we present novel likelihood-free approaches to model comparison, based upon the independent estimation of the evidence of each model under study. Key advantages of these approaches over previous techniques are that they allow the exploitation of MCMC or SMC algorithms for exploring the parameter space, and that they do not require a sampler able to mix between models. We validate the proposed methods using a simple exponential family problem before providing a realistic problem from human population genetics: the comparison of different demographic models based upon genetic data from the Y chromosome.
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Ao longo dos anos o desenvolvimento foi tratado apenas sob o aspecto econômico. Sob essa visão não havia limites para o crescimento. Porém, o esgotamento de alguns recursos e as crises que os sucederam, o aumento de acidentes ecológicos e conseqüente agravamento dos problemas ambientais, impulsionou a sociedade e os organismos que a representam a cobrar maior responsabilidade ambiental das organizações. Essa nova postura mundial impôs às empresas a incorporação em suas estratégias, além do fator econômico, também o fator ambiental como uma necessidade para garantir sua sobrevivência. Apesar da constatação da importância dos Sistemas de Gestão Ambiental e de sua incorporação por um grande número de empresas, são muito incipientes os efeitos alcançados pelos instrumentos utilizados para sua promoção, em especial os instrumentos de controle. Isso se deve especialmente pela não percepção do quanto a questão ambiental influencia na questão econômica das empresas. A gestão ambiental como qualquer prática administrativa requer instrumentos que possibilitem informações confiáveis. Este trabalho objetiva testar a utilização do custeio baseado em atividades como ferramenta para geração de elementos necessários à gestão ambiental. Para tal, foi desenvolvido um modelo para aplicação em uma área-piloto de um curtume. A escolha da empresa deu-se em função do alto nível de rejeitos gerados e por fazer uso de produtos químicos e de água limpa em seu processo produtivo. As conclusões deste estudo demonstram que o custeio ABC é um instrumento capaz de gerar informações úteis à Gestão Ambiental.
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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The urea effect on the giant extracellular hemoglobin of Glossoscolex paulistus (HbGp) stability was studied by analytical ultracentrifugation (AUC) and small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS). AUC data show that the sedimentation coefficient distributions curves c (S), at 1.0mol/L of urea, display a single peak at 57 S, associated to the undissociated protein. The increase in urea concentration, up to 4.0mol/L, induces the appearance of smaller species, due to oligomeric dissociation. The sedimentation coefficients and molecular masses are 9.2S and 204kDa for the dodecamer (abcd)3, 5.5S and 69kDa for the tetramer (abcd), 4.1S and 52kDa for the trimer (abc) and 2.0 S and 17kDa for the monomer d, respectively. SAXS data show initially a decrease in the I(0) values due to the oligomeric dissociation, and then, above 4.0mol/L of denaturant, for oxy-HbGp, and above 6.0mol/L for cyanomet-HbGp, an increase in the maximum dimension and gyration radius is observed, due to the unfolding process. According to AUC and SAXS data the HbGp unfolding is described by two phases: the first one, at low urea concentration, below 4.0mol/L, characterizes the oligomeric dissociation, while the second one, at higher urea concentration, is associated to the unfolding of dissociated species. Our results are complementary to a recent report based on spectroscopic observations. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.
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Members of the ATP-binding cassette (ABC) transporters play a pivotal role in cellular lipid efflux. To identify candidate cholesterol transporters implicated in lipid homeostasis and mammary gland (MG) physiology, we compared expression and localization of ABCA1, ABCG1, and ABCA7 and their regulatory genes in mammary tissues of different species during the pregnancy-lactation cycle. Murine and bovine mammary glands (MGs) were investigated during different functional stages. The abundance of mRNAs was determined by quantitative RT-PCR. Furthermore, transporter proteins were localized in murine, bovine, and human MGs by immunohistochemistry. In the murine MG, ABCA1 mRNA abundance was elevated during nonlactating compared with lactating stages, whereas ABCA7 and ABCA1 mRNA profiles were not altered. In the bovine MG, ABCA1, ABCG1, and ABCA7 mRNAs abundances were increased during nonlactating stages compared with lactation. Furthermore, associations between mRNA levels of transporters and their regulatory genes LXRalpha, PPARgamma, and SREBPs were found. ABCA1, ABCG1, and ABCA7 proteins were localized in glandular MG epithelial cells (MEC) during lactation, whereas during nonlactating stages, depending on species, the proteins showed distinct localization patterns in MEC and adipocytes. Our results demonstrate that ABCA1, ABCG1, and ABCA7 are differentially expressed between lactation and nonlactating stages and in association with regulatory genes. Combined expression and localization data suggest that the selected cholesterol transporters are universal MG transporters involved in transport and storage of cholesterol and in lipid homeostasis of MEC. Because of the species-specific expression patterns of transporters in mammary tissue, mechanisms of cholesterol homeostasis seem to be differentially regulated between species.
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The objective of the study was to determine if there are sex-based differences in the prevalence and clinical outcomes of subclinical peripheral artery disease (PAD). We evaluated the sex-specific associations of ankle-brachial index (ABI) with clinical cardiovascular disease outcomes in 2797 participants without prevalent clinical PAD and with a baseline ABI measurement in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition study. The mean age was 74 years, 40% were black, and 52% were women. Median follow-up was 9.37 years. Women had a similar prevalence of ABI < 0.9 (12% women versus 11% men; P = 0.44), but a higher prevalence of ABI 0.9-1.0 (15% versus 10%, respectively; P < 0.001). In a fully adjusted model, ABI < 0.9 was significantly associated with higher coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, incident clinical PAD and incident myocardial infarction in both women and men. ABI < 0.9 was significantly associated with incident stroke only in women. ABI 0.9-1.0 was significantly associated with CHD death in both women (hazard ratio 4.84, 1.53-15.31) and men (3.49, 1.39-8.72). However, ABI 0.9-1.0 was significantly associated with incident clinical PAD (3.33, 1.44-7.70) and incident stroke (2.45, 1.38-4.35) only in women. Subclinical PAD was strongly associated with adverse CV events in both women and men, but women had a higher prevalence of subclinical PAD.