[Pérouse. Fontana Maggiore, Palazzo dei Priori]

Référence bibliographique : Weigert, 337

Country actions to meet UN commitments on non-communicable diseases: a stepwise approach.

Strong leadership from heads of state is needed to meet national commitments to the UN political declaration on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and to achieve the goal of a 25% reduction in premature NCD mortality by 2025 (the 25 by 25 goal). A simple, phased, national response to the political declaration is suggested, with three key steps: planning, implementation, and accountability. Planning entails mobilisation of a multisectoral response to develop and support the national action plan, and to build human, financial, and regulatory capacity for change. Implementation of a few priority and feasible cost-effective interventions for the prevention and treatment of NCDs will achieve the 25 by 25 goal and will need only few additional financial resources. Accountability incorporates three dimensions: monitoring of progress, reviewing of progress, and appropriate responses to accelerate progress. A national NCD commission or equivalent, which is independent of government, is needed to ensure that all relevant stakeholders are held accountable for the UN commitments to NCDs.

A priori parameterisation of the CERES soil-crop models and tests against several European data sets

Mechanistic soil-crop models have become indispensable tools to investigate the effect of management practices on the productivity or environmental impacts of arable crops. Ideally these models may claim to be universally applicable because they simulate the major processes governing the fate of inputs such as fertiliser nitrogen or pesticides. However, because they deal with complex systems and uncertain phenomena, site-specific calibration is usually a prerequisite to ensure their predictions are realistic. This statement implies that some experimental knowledge on the system to be simulated should be available prior to any modelling attempt, and raises a tremendous limitation to practical applications of models. Because the demand for more general simulation results is high, modellers have nevertheless taken the bold step of extrapolating a model tested within a limited sample of real conditions to a much larger domain. While methodological questions are often disregarded in this extrapolation process, they are specifically addressed in this paper, and in particular the issue of models a priori parameterisation. We thus implemented and tested a standard procedure to parameterize the soil components of a modified version of the CERES models. The procedure converts routinely-available soil properties into functional characteristics by means of pedo-transfer functions. The resulting predictions of soil water and nitrogen dynamics, as well as crop biomass, nitrogen content and leaf area index were compared to observations from trials conducted in five locations across Europe (southern Italy, northern Spain, northern France and northern Germany). In three cases, the model’s performance was judged acceptable when compared to experimental errors on the measurements, based on a test of the model’s root mean squared error (RMSE). Significant deviations between observations and model outputs were however noted in all sites, and could be ascribed to various model routines. In decreasing importance, these were: water balance, the turnover of soil organic matter, and crop N uptake. A better match to field observations could therefore be achieved by visually adjusting related parameters, such as field-capacity water content or the size of soil microbial biomass. As a result, model predictions fell within the measurement errors in all sites for most variables, and the model’s RMSE was within the range of published values for similar tests. We conclude that the proposed a priori method yields acceptable simulations with only a 50% probability, a figure which may be greatly increased through a posteriori calibration. Modellers should thus exercise caution when extrapolating their models to a large sample of pedo-climatic conditions for which they have only limited information.

National and Gender Measurement Invariance of the Utrecht-Management of Identity Commitments Scale (U-MICS) : A 10-Nation Study With University Students

The purpose of this study was to examine the psychometric properties of the Utrecht-Management of Identity Commitments Scale (U-MICS), a self-report measure aimed at assessing identity processes of commitment, in-depth exploration, and reconsideration of commitment. We tested its factor structure in university students from a large array of cultural contexts, including 10 nations located in Europe (i.e., Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, and Switzerland), Middle East (i.e., Turkey), and Asia (i.e., China, Japan, and Taiwan). Furthermore, we tested national and gender measurement invariance. Participants were 6,118 (63.2% females) university students aged from 18 to 25 years (Mage = 20.91 years). Results indicated that the three-factor structure of the U-MICS fitted well in the total sample, in each national group, and in gender groups. Furthermore, national and gender measurement invariance were established. Thus, the U-MICS can be fruitfully applied to study identity in university students from various Western and non-Western contexts.

De insufficientia demonstrationis existentiae Dei a priori

Invocatio: Q.F.F.S.

Historia critica demonstrationis existentiae Dei a priori

Arkit: 1 arkintunnukseton lehti, A-B4 C2.

A priori estimation of accuracy and of the number of wells to be employed in limiting dilution assays

The use of limiting dilution assay (LDA) for assessing the frequency of responders in a cell population is a method extensively used by immunologists. A series of studies addressing the statistical method of choice in an LDA have been published. However, none of these studies has addressed the point of how many wells should be employed in a given assay. The objective of this study was to demonstrate how a researcher can predict the number of wells that should be employed in order to obtain results with a given accuracy, and, therefore, to help in choosing a better experimental design to fulfill one's expectations. We present the rationale underlying the expected relative error computation based on simple binomial distributions. A series of simulated in machina experiments were performed to test the validity of the a priori computation of expected errors, thus confirming the predictions. The step-by-step procedure of the relative error estimation is given. We also discuss the constraints under which an LDA must be performed.

Argumentum quoddam a priori, pro demonstranda Dei existentia, exhibens

Invokaatio: D.F.G.

Évaluation d'un modèle a priori basé sur un seuillage de la TCD en super-résolution et comparaison avec d'autres modèles a priori

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Régression logistique bayésienne : comparaison de densités a priori

La régression logistique est un modèle de régression linéaire généralisée (GLM) utilisé pour des variables à expliquer binaires. Le modèle cherche à estimer la probabilité de succès de cette variable par la linéarisation de variables explicatives. Lorsque l’objectif est d’estimer le plus précisément l’impact de différents incitatifs d’une campagne marketing (coefficients de la régression logistique), l’identification de la méthode d’estimation la plus précise est recherchée. Nous comparons, avec la méthode MCMC d’échantillonnage par tranche, différentes densités a priori spécifiées selon différents types de densités, paramètres de centralité et paramètres d’échelle. Ces comparaisons sont appliquées sur des échantillons de différentes tailles et générées par différentes probabilités de succès. L’estimateur du maximum de vraisemblance, la méthode de Gelman et celle de Genkin viennent compléter le comparatif. Nos résultats démontrent que trois méthodes d’estimations obtiennent des estimations qui sont globalement plus précises pour les coefficients de la régression logistique : la méthode MCMC d’échantillonnage par tranche avec une densité a priori normale centrée en 0 de variance 3,125, la méthode MCMC d’échantillonnage par tranche avec une densité Student à 3 degrés de liberté aussi centrée en 0 de variance 3,125 ainsi que la méthode de Gelman avec une densité Cauchy centrée en 0 de paramètre d’échelle 2,5.

Análisis a priori de una situación de optimización en segundo de Educación Primaria.

Resumen tomado de la publicación

La noción de a priori en Herbert Spencer o un modelo de elaboración filosófica rechazable.

Según, la teoría de la evolución las experiencias las hemos recibido de nuestro antepasados hereditariamente. As, poseemos el conocimiento a priori de verdades matemáticas y lógica, metafísicas y morales. Estas verdades son para el individuo y para la especie. Por tal motivo no deben ser consideradas solo a priori, es decir, es intuitivo. Está demostrado que lo a priori de Spencer carece de reconocimiento científico y filosófico. ¿Entonces cuál fue el error de este autor? Lo primero es decir que no fue un científico, ni un filósofo, fue simplemente un articulista genial que gozó de estimación. Fue autodidacta. Sus ideas directrices son el resultado de las reuniones a las que asistió desde niño con amigos, familia, etcétera. Como fruto de este alimento espiritual surgieron de su mente algunos libros y muchos artículos. Finalmente concibió la gigantesca empresa de redactar su sistema, que se apoya en la teoría de la evolución que identifica con progreso. Es una fuerza primitiva integradora de materia e inmerso en ella esta el hombre y la evolución ha de explicar lo humano. A partir de la herencia introduce en el mecanismo del hombre una serie de verdades a priori que lo van mejorando progresivamente hasta que se alcance la evolución y el progreso últimos. El hombre actual no tiene prefijado el camino tiene que hacérselo. Así, nuestros conocimientos actuales dependen de contenciones, las cuales cuando caen arrastran consigo los sistemas analíticos construidos sobre ellas. Desde la perspectiva actual de la ciencia no hay posibilidad de dar crédito a la solución ofrecida sobre la formación del conocimiento a priori. Ahí, radica su error. Su concepción de lo a priori es extraña a la filosofía porque desde el principio esta, ha pretendido ser un conocimiento sobre lo originario o radical.