Indicadores de tendencia secular de variaveis associadas ao crescimento, a composição corporal e ao desempenho motor de crianças de 7 a 14 anos

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Secular trends in a population with ischemic heart disease admitted to the Instituto do Coração in São Paulo

OBJECTIVE: To assess the clinical and demographic characteristics of a population with ischemic heart disease admitted in the final decades of the 20th century. METHODS: This study retrospectively assessed patients hospitalized with ischemic heart disease divided into the following 2 groups: acute group - 11.181 patients with acute myocardial infarction admitted from 1/1/82 to 12/31/94; and chronic group - 4.166 patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery from 1/1/84 to 12/31/94. RESULTS: In the acute group, an increase in the percentage of females (from 22.7% to 27.7%, P<0.001) and diabetic individuals (from 12.4% to 17.5%, P<0.001) was observed, as was an increase in age (from 57.4±11.5 to 59.9±12.1 years, P<0.05). In-hospital mortality was greater among females (27.8% and 15.7%, P=0.001), among diabetic individuals (24.2% and 17.8%, P=0.001), and among the elderly (60.9±15.2 and 57.7±11.8 years, P=0.0001). In the chronic group, an increase in the percentage of females (from 17.5% to 27.2%, P=0.001) was observed, as was an increase in age (from 56.3±8.6 to 60.5±9.6 years, P=0.0001). In-hospital mortality was greater among females (8.3% and 5.8%, P<0.05) and among the elderly (58.1±9.1 and 62.1±7.9 years, P=0.0001). CONCLUSION: The characteristics of the population studied with ischemic heart disease point towards a worse prognosis, due to the greater percentages of females, older patients, and diabetic patients, groups known to have greater in-hospital mortality.

Secular trends in height and weight among children and adolescents of the Seychelles, 1956-2006

Background: Few data is available on long-term secular trends in height and weight in children in countries in transition. We assessed the secular trends in height and weight among representative samples of children and adolescents from the Seychelles (African region). Methods: Weight and height data from all students of all schools in four selected school grades (kindergarten, 4th, 7th and 10th years) were collected by cross-sectional surveys for periods 1998-9 (3,676 boys, 3,715 girls) and 2005-6 (4,867 boys, 4,846 girls). Data from 1956-7 was extracted from a previously published report. Results: Height increased, in boys, by 1.6 cm/decade for the period 1956-7 to 1998- 9, and 1.1 cm/decade for the period 1998-8 to 2005-6; in girls, the corresponding figures were 0.9 cm/decade and 1.8 cm/decade. At age 15.5 years, boys/girls were taller by 10/13 cm in 2005-6 than in 1956-7. Weight increased, in boys, by 1.4 kg/decade for the period 1956-7 to 1998-9, and by 2.2 kg/decade for the subsequent period; the corresponding figures in girls were 1.1 kg/decade and 2.5 kg/decade. Conclusion: Marked upward secular trends in body height and weight were documented in children and adolescents aged <16 years in the Seychelles, consistent with large changes in socio-economic and nutritional indicators in the considered 50- year interval. However, indirect evidence suggests that the secular height gain reflects accelerated growth during childhood over time with less than commensurate impact on adult height. Conversely, the largely steeper secular increase in weight than height is consistent with a pediatric obesity epidemic.

The contribution of rectangularization to the secular increase of life expectancy: an empirical study.

BACKGROUND: In low-mortality countries, life expectancy is increasing steadily. This increase can be disentangled into two separate components: the delayed incidence of death (i.e. the rectangularization of the survival curve) and the shift of maximal age at death to the right (i.e. the extension of longevity). METHODS: We studied the secular increase of life expectancy at age 50 in nine European countries between 1922 and 2006. The respective contributions of rectangularization and longevity to increasing life expectancy are quantified with a specific tool. RESULTS: For men, an acceleration of rectangularization was observed in the 1980s in all nine countries, whereas a deceleration occurred among women in six countries in the 1960s. These diverging trends are likely to reflect the gender-specific trends in smoking. As for longevity, the extension was steady from 1922 in both genders in almost all countries. The gain of years due to longevity extension exceeded the gain due to rectangularization. This predominance over rectangularization was still observed during the most recent decades. CONCLUSIONS: Disentangling life expectancy into components offers new insights into the underlying mechanisms and possible determinants. Rectangularization mainly reflects the secular changes of the known determinants of early mortality, including smoking. Explaining the increase of maximal age at death is a more complex challenge. It might be related to slow and lifelong changes in the socio-economic environment and lifestyles as well as population composition. The still increasing longevity does not suggest that we are approaching any upper limit of human longevity.

Secular changes of spinal canal dimensions in Western Switzerland: a narrowing epidemic?

STUDY DESIGN: Computed tomography-based anatomical study. OBJECTIVE: To study the secular changes in lumbar spinal canal dimensions. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Development of symptomatic lumbar spinal stenosis, among other factors, is related to the dimensions of the bony canal. The canal reaches its adult size early on in life. Several factors, including protein intake, may influence its final dimensions. As with increases in human stature from improvements of socioeconomic conditions, we hypothesized that adult bony canal size has also grown larger in recent generations. METHODS: This study analyzes computed tomographic reconstructions from 184 subjects performed for either trauma (n = 81) or abdominal pathologies (n = 103) and born either between 1940 and 1949 (n = 88) or 1970 and 1979 (n = 96). The cross-sectional area of the bony canal was digitally measured at the level of the pedicle (i.e., at a level not influenced by degenerative changes) for each lumbar vertebra. Intra- and interobserver reliability was assessed. RESULTS: Intra- and interobserver measurement reliability were excellent (interclass correlation coefficient = 0.87) and good (interclass correlation coefficient = 0.61), respectively. Contrary to our hypothesis, the 1940-1949 generation patient group exhibited larger lumbar canals at all levels as compared with the 1970-1979 group. Statistically this difference was highly significant (P < 0.001) and particularly pronounced in the trauma subgroup. CONCLUSION: Given that human stature evolution has stabilized and adult height is established during the first 2 years of long bone growth, it is possible that antenatal factors are responsible for this surprising finding. Maternal smoking and age may be possible explanations. This finding may have significant implications. An increasing number of patients may emerge with lumbar spinal stenosis as degenerative changes develop, putting a strain on health resources. Further studies in different population groups and countries will be important to further confirm this trend. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 3.

Discordant secular trends in elevated blood pressure and obesity in children and adolescents in a rapidly developing country

BACKGROUND: The effect of the increasing prevalence of obesity on blood pressure (BP) secular trends is unclear. We analyzed BP and body mass index secular trends between 1998 and 2006 in children and adolescents of the Seychelles, a rapidly developing island state in the African region. METHODS AND RESULTS: School-based surveys were conducted annually between 1998 and 2006 among all students in 4 school grades (kindergarten and 4th, 7th, and 10th years of compulsory school). We used the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria to define obesity and elevated BP. The same methods and instruments were used in all surveys. Some 25 586 children and adolescents 4 to 18 years of age contributed 43 867 observations. Although the prevalence of obesity in boys and girls increased from 5.1% and 6.0%, respectively, in 1998 to 2000 to 8.0% and 8.7% in 2004 to 2006, the prevalence of elevated BP decreased from 8.4% and 9.8% to 6.9% and 7.8%. During the interval, mean age-adjusted body mass index increased by 0.57 kg/m(2) in boys and 0.58 kg/m(2) in girls. Mean age- and height-adjusted systolic BP decreased by -3.0 mm Hg in boys and -2.8 mm Hg in girls, whereas mean diastolic BP did not change substantially in boys (-0.2 mm Hg) and increased slightly in girls (0.4 mm Hg). CONCLUSIONS: At a population level, the marked increase in the prevalence of obesity in children and adolescents in the Seychelles was not associated with a commensurate secular rise in mean BP.

A set of indicators for decomposing the secular increase of life expectancy.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The ongoing increase in life expectancy in developed countries is associated with changes in the shape of the survival curve. These changes can be characterized by two main, distinct components: (i) the decline in premature mortality, i.e., the concentration of deaths around some high value of the mean age at death, also termed rectangularization of the survival curve; and (ii) the increase of this mean age at death, i.e., longevity, which directly reflects the reduction of mortality at advanced ages. Several recent observations suggest that both mechanisms are simultaneously taking place. METHODS: We propose a set of indicators aiming to quantify, disentangle, and compare the respective contribution of rectangularization and longevity increase to the secular increase of life expectancy. These indicators, based on a nonparametric approach, are easy to implement. RESULTS: We illustrate the method with the evolution of the Swiss mortality data between 1876 and 2006. Using our approach, we are able to say that the increase in longevity and rectangularization explain each about 50% of the secular increase of life expectancy. CONCLUSION: Our method may provide a useful tool to assess whether the contribution of rectangularization to the secular increase of life expectancy will remain around 50% or whether it will be increasing in the next few years, and thus whether concentration of mortality will eventually take place against some ultimate biological limit.

Secular trends in height and weight among children and adolescents of the Seychelles, 1956-2006.

BACKGROUND: Height of individuals has long been considered as a significant index of nutrition and health of a population; still, there is little information regarding the trends of height and weight among developing or transitional countries. We assessed the secular trends in height and weight in children of the Seychelles, a rapidly developing island state in the Indian Ocean (African region). METHODS: Height and weight were measured in all students of all schools in four selected school grades (kindergarten, 4th, 7th and 10th grades) for the periods 1998-9 (6391 children) and 2005-6 (8582 children). Data for 1956-7 was extracted from a previously published report. RESULTS: At age 15.5 years, boys/girls were on average 10/13 cm taller and 15/9 kg heavier in 2005-6 than in 1956-7. Height increased in boys/girls by 1.62/0.93 cm/decade between 1956-7 and 1998-9 and by 1.14/1.82 cm/decade between 1998-9 and 2005-6. For weight, the linear increase in boys/girls was 1.38/1.10 kg/decade between 1956-7 and 1998-9 and 2.21/2.50 kg/decade between 1998-9 and 2005-6. Overall, the relative increase in weight between 1956-7 and 2005-6 was 5-fold higher than the relative increase in height. CONCLUSION: Height and weight increased markedly over time in children aged <16 years in the Seychelles, consistent with large changes in socio-economic and nutritional indicators in the considered 50-year interval. The markedly steeper increase in weight than height over time is consistent with an epidemic of overweight and obesity.

The potential utility of age, triage score, and disposition data contained in emergency department electronic records for influenza-like illness surveillance in Montreal

La surveillance de l’influenza s’appuie sur un large spectre de données, dont les données de surveillance syndromique provenant des salles d’urgences. De plus en plus de variables sont enregistrées dans les dossiers électroniques des urgences et mises à la disposition des équipes de surveillance. L’objectif principal de ce mémoire est d’évaluer l’utilité potentielle de l’âge, de la catégorie de triage et de l’orientation au départ de l’urgence pour améliorer la surveillance de la morbidité liée aux cas sévères d’influenza. Les données d’un sous-ensemble des hôpitaux de Montréal ont été utilisées, d’avril 2006 à janvier 2011. Les hospitalisations avec diagnostic de pneumonie ou influenza ont été utilisées comme mesure de la morbidité liée aux cas sévères d’influenza, et ont été modélisées par régression binomiale négative, en tenant compte des tendances séculaires et saisonnières. En comparaison avec les visites avec syndrome d’allure grippale (SAG) totales, les visites avec SAG stratifiées par âge, par catégorie de triage et par orientation de départ ont amélioré le modèle prédictif des hospitalisations avec pneumonie ou influenza. Avant d’intégrer ces variables dans le système de surveillance de Montréal, des étapes additionnelles sont suggérées, incluant l’optimisation de la définition du syndrome d’allure grippale à utiliser, la confirmation de la valeur de ces prédicteurs avec de nouvelles données et l’évaluation de leur utilité pratique.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and Parkinsonism-dementia complex of Guam: Descriptive epidemiology, secular trends, and birth cohort effects on incidence, 1950--1989

This study describes the patterns of occurrence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and parkinsonism-dementia complex (PDC) of Guam during 1950-1989. Both ALS and PDC occur with high frequency among the indigenous Chamorro population, first recognized in the early 1950's. Reports in the early 1980's indicated that both ALS and PDC were disappearing, due to a purported reduction in exposure to harmful environmental factors as a result of the dramatic changes in lifestyle that took place after World War II. However, this study provides compelling evidence that ALS and PDC have not disappeared on Guam and that rates for both are higher during 1980-1989 than previously reported.^ The patterns of occurrence for both ALS and PDC overlap in most respects: (1) incidence and mortality are decreasing; (2) median age at onset is increasing; (3) males are at increased risk for developing disease; (4) risk is higher for those residing in the south compared to the non-south; and (5) age-specific incidence is decreasing over time except in the oldest age groups.^ Age-specific incidence of ALS and PDC, separately and together, is generally higher for cohorts born before 1920 than for those born after 1920. A significant birth cohort effect on the incidence of PDC for the 1906-1915 birth cohort was found, but not for ALS and for ALS and PDC together. Whether or not a cohort effect, period effect, or both are associated with incidence of ALS and PDC cannot be determined from the data currently available and will require additional follow-up of individuals born after 1920.^ The epidemiological data amassed over this 40-year period provide evidence that supports an environmental exposure model for disease occurrence as opposed to a simple genetic or infectious disease model. Whether neurodegenerative disease in this population occurs as a consequence of a single exposure or is explained by a multifactorial model such as a genetic predisposition with some environmental interaction is yet to be determined. However, descriptive studies such as this can provide clues concerning timing and location of potential adverse exposures but cannot determine etiology, underscoring the urgent need for analytic studies of ALS and PDC to further investigate existing etiologic hypotheses and to test new hypotheses. ^

Age determination and paleomagnetic investigations on a sediment profile from laguna Potrok Aike

Paleomagnetic inclination, declination and relative paleointensity were reconstructed from the sediments of Laguna Potrok Aike in the framework of the International Continental scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) Potrok Aike maar lake Sediment Archive Drilling prOject (PASADO). Here we present the u-channel-based full vector paleomagnetic field reconstruction since 51.2 ka cal BP. The relative paleointensity proxy (RPI) was built by normalising the natural remanent magnetisation with the anhysteretic remanent magnetisation using the average ratio at 4 demagnetisation steps part of the ChRM interval (NRM/ARM10e40 mT). A grain size influence on the RPI was removed using a correction based on the linear relationship between the RPI and the median destructive field of the natural remanent magnetisation (MDFNRM). The new record is compared with other lacustrine and marine records and stacks from the mid- to high-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, revealing consistent millennial-scale variability, the identification of the Laschamp and possibly the Mono Lake geomagnetic excursions, and a direction swing possibly associated to the Hilina Pali excursion at 20 ka cal BP. Nonetheless, a global-scale comparison with other high-resolution records located on the opposite side of the Earth and with various dipole field references hint at a different behaviour of the geomagnetic field around southern South America at 46 ka cal BP.