Global and regional burden of disease and risk factors, 2001: systematic analysis of population health data

Background Our aim was to calculate the global burden of disease and risk factors for 2001, to examine regional trends from 1990 to 2001, and to provide a starting point for the analysis of the Disease Control Priorities Project (DCPP). Methods We calculated mortality, incidence, prevalence, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) for 136 diseases and injuries, for seven income/geographic country groups. To assess trends, we re-estimated all-cause mortality for 1990 with the same methods as for 2001. We estimated mortality and disease burden attributable to 19 risk factors. Findings About 56 million people died in 2001. Of these, 10.6 million were children, 99% of whom lived in low-and-middle-income countries. More than half of child deaths in 2001 were attributable to acute respiratory infections, measles, diarrhoea, malaria, and HIV/AIDS. The ten leading diseases for global disease burden were perinatal conditions, lower respiratory infections, ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, HIV/AIDS, diarrhoeal diseases, unipolar major depression, malaria, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and tuberculosis. There was a 20% reduction in global disease burden per head due to communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional conditions between 1990 and 2001. Almost half the disease burden in low-and-middle-income countries is now from non-communicable diseases (disease burden per head in Sub-Saharan Africa and the low-and-middle-income countries of Europe and Central Asia increased between 1990 and 2001). Undernutrition remains the leading risk factor for health loss. An estimated 45% of global mortality and 36% of global disease burden are attributable to the joint hazardous effects of the 19 risk factors studied. Uncertainty in all-cause mortality estimates ranged from around 1% in high-income countries to 15-20% in Sub-Saharan Africa. Uncertainty was larger for mortality from specific diseases, and for incidence and prevalence of non-fatal outcomes. Interpretation Despite uncertainties about mortality and burden of disease estimates, our findings suggest that substantial gains in health have been achieved in most populations, countered by the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa and setbacks in adult mortality in countries of the former Soviet Union. our results on major disease, injury, and risk factor causes of loss of health, together with information on the cost-effectiveness of interventions, can assist in accelerating progress towards better health and reducing the persistent differentials in health between poor and rich countries.

Science-policy in environmental and health risk assessment: if we cannot do without, can we do better?

How can empirical evidence of adverse effects from exposure to noxious agents, which is often incomplete and uncertain, be used most appropriately to protect human health? We examine several important questions on the best uses of empirical evidence in regulatory risk management decision-making raised by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s science-policy concerning uncertainty and variability in human health risk assessment. In our view, the US EPA (and other agencies that have adopted similar views of risk management) can often improve decision-making by decreasing reliance on default values and assumptions, particularly when causation is uncertain. This can be achieved by more fully exploiting decision-theoretic methods and criteria that explicitly account for uncertain, possibly conflicting scientific beliefs and that can be fully studied by advocates and adversaries of a policy choice, in administrative decision-making involving risk assessment. The substitution of decision-theoretic frameworks for default assumption-driven policies also allows stakeholder attitudes toward risk to be incorporated into policy debates, so that the public and risk managers can more explicitly identify the roles of risk-aversion or other attitudes toward risk and uncertainty in policy recommendations. Decision theory provides a sound scientific way explicitly to account for new knowledge and its effects on eventual policy choices. Although these improvements can complicate regulatory analyses, simplifying default assumptions can create substantial costs to society and can prematurely cut off consideration of new scientific insights (e.g., possible beneficial health effects from exposure to sufficiently low 'hormetic' doses of some agents). In many cases, the administrative burden of applying decision-analytic methods is likely to be more than offset by improved effectiveness of regulations in achieving desired goals. Because many foreign jurisdictions adopt US EPA reasoning and methods of risk analysis, it may be especially valuable to incorporate decision-theoretic principles that transcend local differences among jurisdictions.

Limitations to global disease control

In October 2000, Australia was declared poliomyelitis-free” by the World Health Organisation. This declaration followed some extensive six years of surveillance of all cases of acute flaccid paralysis, by the Poliomyelitis Expert Surveillance Committee (Centre for Disease Control, Commonwealth Department of Health and Aged Care, Canberra), chaired by the author. There have been seven attempts in the history of the world to eliminate a disease from the earth’s surface. The dramatic failure of five of these, the success of global smallpox eradication, and current successes and difficulties in the case of attempts to eliminate poliomyelitis worldwide, lead one to an analysis of the factors which led both to success and to failure. The global eradication of a specific disease is one of the most important endeavours which the international community can undertake. This audit reviews the details of such approaches; that such might be used as tools for the future.

Implications of non-response of older women to a short form of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale

The Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) is frequently used in epidemiological surveys to screen for depression, especially among older adults. This article addresses the problem of non-completion of a short form of the CES-D (CESD-10) in a mailed survey of 73- to 78-year-old women enrolled in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Completers of the CESD-10 had more education, found it easier to manage on available income and reported better physical and mental health. The Medical Outcomes Study Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) scores for non-completers were intermediate between those for women classified as depressed and not depressed using the CESD-10. Indicators of depression had an inverted U-shaped relationship with the number of missing CESD- 10 items and were most frequent for women with two to seven items missing. Future research should pay particular attention to the level of missing data in depression scales and report its potential impact on estimates of depression.

The perceived benefits of the chronic disease self-management program among participants with stroke: A qualitative study

Despite the expense associated with rehabilitation following stroke, dissatisfaction with psychosocial outcomes is common (Thomas & Parry, 1996). The rehabilitation system has been critiqued as lacking a theoretical base for psychosocial interventions (Goldberg, Segal, Berk, Schall, & Gershkoff, 1997). The current paper examines the possible role of the Chronic Disease Self-Management Program ([CDSMP] Lorig, 1996) in contributing to the psychosocial rehabilitation of people with stroke. This paper focuses on the analysis of incidental comments made by participants about a version of the CDSMP, tailored for people with stroke. These comments, collected over an 18-month follow-up period, provide interesting insights into the key aspects of the program. Six informative themes emerged from the more specific comments, namely (1) the importance of social contact and comparison, (2) increased awareness and knowledge about stroke, (3) motivation to pursue goals and activities, (4) a sense of achievement, (5) maintenance of gains, and (6) the paradoxical nature of social support. According to participants, the program was associated with enhanced self-efficacy. Other reported benefits (such as social support and enhanced knowledge) were indirectly associated with the program and appeared to reflect social aspects of the group and its stroke-specific focus. Maintenance of gains made by participants was seen as a crucial issue.