Forecasting overseas visitors into the United Kingdom using continuous time and autoregressive fractional integrated moving average models with discrete data

This paper applies Gaussian estimation methods to continuous time models for modelling overseas visitors into the UK. The use of continuous time modelling is widely used in economics and finance but not in tourism forecasting. Using monthly data for 1986–2010, various continuous time models are estimated and compared to autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models. Dynamic forecasts are obtained over different periods. The empirical results show that the ARIMA model performs very well, but that the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) continuous time model has the lowest root mean squared error (RMSE) over a short period.

Quality certification, performance and size in hotel chains

This paper examines the relationship between quality certification and performance, and quality certification and size in hotel chains operating in Spain. In an initial phase, a quantitative study is made with secondary and objective data to analyse these relationships. In a second phase, a qualitative analysis is applied to reach a better understanding of the quantitative results. The findings show that chains with certified hotels achieve better performance levels; that better performance levels increase with the percentage of certified hotels within the chain; and that quality certification has positive effects on some performance variables. In addition, size is not a key factor for certification, although it could be an enabler.

A kiskereskedelmi árrögzítés versenyfokozó hatása (The competition-enhancing effect of retail price maintenance)

A kiskereskedelmi árrögzítés évtizedek óta vitatott kérdés a közgazdasági elméletben. Az Egyesült Államok legfelsőbb bíróságának közelmúltbeli döntése - megszüntetve az ilyen típusú árkorlátozások önmagában törvénytelennek ítélését - ismételten felhívta a figyelmet az adott problémakörre. Cikkünkben az árrögzítés eddig mellőzött versenyfokozó hatásával foglalkozunk. A megszokott statikus modellek helyett dinamikus környezetet feltételezve, arra a következtetésre jutunk, hogy egy profitmaximalizáló termelőnek számos esetben célszerű kiskereskedelmi árrögzítést alkalmazni egy esetlegesen kialakuló forgalmazói kartell megelőzésére, amelynek egyértelműen pozitív hatása van nemcsak a termelő profitjára, hanem a kialakuló fogyasztói többletre nézve is. Amellett érvelünk, hogy indokolatlan a még mindig uralkodó, a legtöbb ország versenyszabályozásában tetten érhető, önmagában törvénytelennek minősített megítélés a vertikális árkorlátozásokkal kapcsolatban. / === / Retail price fixing has been a disputed issue in theoretical economics for decades, to which attention was drawn again by a recent decision by the US Supreme Court ending the illegality of such price restrictions as such. Assuming a dynamic environment instead of the customary static model leads to the conclusion that it is frequently advantageous to a profit-maximizing producer to use retail price maintenance to avert the possible appearance of a reseller cartel. This will have a clearly positive effect on producer profits, and also in terms of increasing consumption. It is also argued in the study that it is unjustified to qualify such vertical pricing restrictions as essentially illegal, after the manner of the competition rules in most countries.

Resident’s Perceptions on Impacts of Hosting the Guimaraes 2012 European Capital of Culture: Comparisons of the Pre- and Post Periods

Residents tend to have high expectations regarding the benefits of hosting a mega- event, in particular the creation of new infrastructure, growth in GDP and employ- ment, image enhancement and the spin-offs of attracting tourists and fostering sustainable growth of the cultural supply (Jeong and Faulkner 1996; Deccio and Baloglu 2002; Gursoy and Kendall 2006; Getz 2008; Langen and Garcia 2009; Ritchie et al. 2009; Gursoy et al. 2011; Palonen 2011). Nevertheless, they normally recognise that some costs will be incurred (Kim and Petrick 2005; Kim et al. 2006; Ritchie et al. 2009; Gursoy et al. 2011; Lee et al. 2013). So, it was not surprising that the nomination of Guimaraes, a small city in the northwest of Portugal, as one of the two European Capitals of Culture in 2012 (2012 ECOC), had raised great expectations in the local community vis- a-vis its socio-economic and cultural benefits. Our research was designed to examine the Guimar~aes residents’ perceptions of the impacts of hosting the 2012 ECOC, approached at two different times: before and after the event, to try and capture the evolution of the residents’ assessment of its impacts. From the empirical literature, we know that residents’ perceived impacts tend to change as time goes by (Kim et al. 2006; Ritchie et al. 2009; Gursoy et al. 2011; Lee et al. 2013). The data were gathered via two surveys applied to Guimaraes residents, one in 2011, before the event, and the other afterwards, in 2013. The Guimaraes residents’ assessment was thought to be essential to get an accurate appraisal of the impact of the mega-event as they were a main part of the hosting process. 2012 ECOC impacts were mainly felt by local people who, in most cases, will go on feeling them in the short and long term. The research was thought to be socially pertinent as the opinions collected through the surveys can help to prevent repeating mistakes when similar mega- events are organised in the future, and to increase the positive impacts derived from hosting them. When we talk about the social pertinence of the empirical results, we want to stress that the expertise acquired can be useful to any host city or country.

Steady tourists’ relationship with a mature destination. The case of Portugal

This article assesses how the last-visit features and the socio-demographic profile of tourists moderate repeat-visit patterns to Portugal, a mature destination where the persistence of loyal visitors has made its mark on tourism development. The methodology used is a survival analysis to assess the tourists’ repeat patterns. To test the model, a database of 4612 observations was employed, which was obtained from a survey of international tourists. Only repeat visitors with more than two visits over the years were considered for the purpose of the research. The study finds that a combination of socio-demographic characteristics, expectation/satisfaction, trip purpose, pull motivations and regional destination has a positive effect on repeat patterns, confirming that tourists’ willingness to repeat visits to Portugal is far from ceasing. Based on those tourists to Portugal who declared when they started to visit the country, and the number of years of their repeat visits, the article contributes to the literature by introducing new methods of assessing tourists’ repeat patterns for destinations.

Geo-economics and considerations on the tourism industry with emphasis on historical cities tourism and ecotourism in Iran

Considering its many potentials in the tourism industry, Iran has constantly been among the leading countries seeking development in this industry. Iran is a country with many attractions in different tourism sections including cultural, urban, and monument tourism, and ancient places as well as ecotourism, and water tourism etc. for tourists. However, Iran has never economically prospered regarding its potentials in this industry as compared to its rivals. Thus, the main objective of this work is to list the main necessities of harnessing economic power and required instruments to fulfill this goal. In addition, the tourism industry is discussed as an important strategy for reaching this power, and the Iranian wildlife is introduced as an intact environment. It is also discussed that what economic benefits are obtained through using this tourism industry. It must be noted that the main emphasis of this work is on urban, monument tourism, ancient places, and ecotourism as a case study in two Iranian provinces. Finally, the required analyses are performed considering the affinity between these two sections and two provinces. Results indicated that while Iran having the highest percent of growth compared to the two other countries active in this area, however this advantage has not significantly affected the GDP in Iran, and Iran has not been able to improve its geo-economic capacity in this area.

Economics of tourism & growth for small island countries

We theoretically analyze the impact of changes in foreign income from tourism source countries on the growth of tourism dependent small island economies. Using a general theoretical construct, we attempt to answer the question of how price elasticity of demand, income elasticity of tourist and the degree of competition in the service sector influence the economic development of small economies. One of the main results is that politicians may consider applying policies which lead to a competitive environment in the service sector to maximize growth and the consequent labor income share.

Introductory Chapter to The Economics of Nonprofit Enterprises

Nonprofit organizations present the analyst with a slew of puzzles. To an economist conditioned to think in terms of objectives and constraints, even the mathematical definition of the beast is a problem. What is a nonprofit organization? How does this definition shape the elaboration of objectives and constraints?

Coastal development, coral reefs and marine life in Asia: Tourism's double-edged sword

A large proportion of the world's population, including those of Asian countries, live in close proximity to the coastline. Coastlines are being developed at a £aster rate than ever before and there is now a growing body of literature to show that such activities are affecting the quality of coastal ecosystems and its wildlife (see, for example, Jennings, 2004; Siler et al., 2014; Duke eta!., 2007). This in turn is impacting negatively on the fishing and the tourism industries, amongst others. Millions of people depend on these sectors for their livelihoods and, unsustainable development can only make the plight of those who rely on these resources worse. The tourism industry in the coastal regions is particularly at risk since the industry relies heavily on coastal ecosystems to attract visitors. This chapter discusses the strong links that exist between coastal development, tourism, marine ecosystems and its wildlife, drawing attention to two well-known species widely used in tourism, namely whales and sea turtles, and discussing their conservation in relation to tourism. The chapter is divided into six sections. The second section examines why it is important to strike a balance between coastal development and protecting ecosystems. In this section, we discuss the ma.ior identified causes of coastal ecosystem degradation from the published literature, and the third section focuses attention on tourism development in the Asian region, which is one of the major reasons for coastal degradation. A diagrammatic approach is used to illustrate that planning of coastal tourism development which takes into account environmental impacts could result in economic benefits to the areas and regions concerned. The negative impacts on tourism when coastal ecosystems are damaged are discussed in section four. Section five shows the economic benefits resulting from sea turtle and whale watching-based tourism in Australia, and section six examines tourism as a conservation tool. In this section, the differing experiences of sea turtle tourism in Sri Lanka and Australia are discussed based on our published work. The final section concludes.

Estimating the potential impact of entry fees for marine parks on dive tourism in South East Asia

Marine reserves are increasingly being established as a mechanism to protect marine biodiversity and sensitive habitats. As well as providing conservation benefits, marine reserves provide benefits to recreational scuba divers who dive within the reserve, as well as to recreational and commercial fishers outside the reserve through spill-over effects. To ensure benefits are being realised, management of marine reserves requires ongoing monitoring and surveillance. These are not costless, and many marine reserve managers impose an entry fee. In some countries, dive tourism is major income source to coastal industries, and a concern is that high entry fees may dissuade divers. In this paper, the price elasticity of demand for dive tourism in three countries in South East Asia – Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia – is estimated using a travel-cost model. From the model, the total non-market use value associated with diving in the area is estimated to be in the order of US$4.5 billion a year. The price elasticity of demand in the region is highly inelastic, such that increasing the cost of diving through a management levy would have little impact on total diver numbers.