Application and evaluation of classification trees for screening unwanted plants

Risk assessment systems for introduced species are being developed and applied globally, but methods for rigorously evaluating them are still in their infancy. We explore classification and regression tree models as an alternative to the current Australian Weed Risk Assessment system, and demonstrate how the performance of screening tests for unwanted alien species may be quantitatively compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The optimal classification tree model for predicting weediness included just four out of a possible 44 attributes of introduced plants examined, namely: (i) intentional human dispersal of propagules; (ii) evidence of naturalization beyond native range; (iii) evidence of being a weed elsewhere; and (iv) a high level of domestication. Intentional human dispersal of propagules in combination with evidence of naturalization beyond a plants native range led to the strongest prediction of weediness. A high level of domestication in combination with no evidence of naturalization mitigated the likelihood of an introduced plant becoming a weed resulting from intentional human dispersal of propagules. Unlikely intentional human dispersal of propagules combined with no evidence of being a weed elsewhere led to the lowest predicted probability of weediness. The failure to include intrinsic plant attributes in the model suggests that either these attributes are not useful general predictors of weediness, or data and analysis were inadequate to elucidate the underlying relationship(s). This concurs with the historical pessimism that we will ever be able to accurately predict invasive plants. Given the apparent importance of propagule pressure (the number of individuals of an species released), future attempts at evaluating screening model performance for identifying unwanted plants need to account for propagule pressure when collating and/or analysing datasets. The classification tree had a cross-validated sensitivity of 93.6% and specificity of 36.7%. Based on the area under the ROC curve, the performance of the classification tree in correctly classifying plants as weeds or non-weeds was slightly inferior (Area under ROC curve = 0.83 +/- 0.021 (+/- SE)) to that of the current risk assessment system in use (Area under ROC curve = 0.89 +/- 0.018 (+/- SE)), although requires many fewer questions to be answered.

Transmission mode and distribution of parasites among groups of the social lizard Egernia stokesii

We explored patterns of infection of three apicomplexan blood parasites with different transmission mechanisms in 46 social groups across seven populations of the Australian lizard, Egernia stokesii. There was higher aggregation of infections within social groups for Hemolivia, transmitted by ticks, and Schellackia, either tick-transmitted or directly transmitted from mother to offspring, than for Plasmodium, with more mobile dipteran vectors. Prevalence was not related to group size, proximity to other groups or spatial overlap with adjacent groups for any of the parasites. However, for Hemolivia, groups with higher levels of relatedness among adults had higher parasite prevalence. Living in social groups leads to higher risk of infection for parasites with low transmission mobility. An unanswered question is why so few lizard species tolerate these risks to form stable social aggregations.

Ecological factors associated with the breeding and migratory phenology of high-latitude breeding western sandpipers

Environmental conditions influence the breeding and migratory patterns of many avian species and may have particularly dramatic effects on long-distance migrants that breed at northern latitudes. Environment, however, is only one of the ecological variables affecting avian phenology, and recent work shows that migration tactics may be strongly affected by changes in predator populations. We used long-term data from 1978 to 2000 to examine the interactions between snowmelt in western Alaska in relation to the breeding or migration phenologies of small shorebirds and their raptor predators. Although the sandpipers' time of arrival at Alaskan breeding sites corresponded with mean snowmelt, late snowmelts did delay breeding. These delays, however, did not persist to southward migration through British Columbia, likely due to the birds' ability to compensate for variance in the length of the breeding season. Raptor phenology at an early stopover site in British Columbia was strongly related to snowmelt, so that in years of early snowmelt falcons appeared earlier during the sandpipers' southbound migration. These differential effects indicate that earlier snowmelt due to climate change may alter the ecological dynamics of the predator-prey system.

The roles of natural and sexual selection during adaptation to a novel environment

The net effect of sexual selection on nonsexual fitness is controversial. On one side, elaborate display traits and preferences for them can be costly, reducing the nonsexual fitness of individuals possessing them, as well as their offspring, In contrast, sexual selection may reinforce nonsexual fitness if an individual's attractiveness and quality are genetically correlated. According to recent models, such good-genes mate choice should increase both the extent and rate of adaptation. We evolved 12 replicate populations of Drosophila serrata in a powerful two-way factorial experimental design to test the separate and combined contributions of natural and sexual selection to adaptation to a novel larval food resource. Populations evolving in the presence of natural selection had significantly higher mean nonsexual fitness when measured over three generations (13-15) during the course of experimental evolution (16-23% increase). The effect of natural selection was even more substantial when measured in a standardized, monogamous mating environment at the end of the experiment (generation 16; 52% increase). In contrast, and despite strong sexual selection on display traits, there was no evidence from any of the four replicate fitness measures that sexual selection promoted adaptation. In addition, a comparison of fitness measures conducted under different mating environments demonstrated a significant direct cost of sexual selection to females, likely arising from some form of male-induced harm. Indirect benefits of sexual selection in promoting adaptation to this novel resource environment therefore appear to be absent in this species, despite prior evidence suggesting the operation of good-genes mate choice in their ancestral environment. How novel environments affect the operation of good-genes mate choice is a fundamental question for future sexual selection research.

Bioerosion Research Before and After 1996 - A Discussion of What Has Changed Since the First International Bioerosion Workshop

The First International Bioerosion Workshop held in 1996 provided a forum for an increasing interest in bioerosion research and helped foster convivial relations among researchers in this specialization. The current trend in bioerosion publishing is positive and will be aided with consolidated efforts to attract both new recruits and grant awards. Contributors of the Fourth IBW in Prague decided to hold the next meeting in Erlangen, Germany.

Microarray and proteomic analysis of the human alcoholic brain

The superior frontal cortex (SFC) is selectively damaged in chronic alcohol abuse, with localized neuronal loss and tissue atrophy. Regions such as motor cortex show little neuronal loss except in severe co-morbidity (liver cirrhosis or WKS). Altered gene expression was found in microarray comparisons of alcoholic and control SFC samples [1]. We used Western blots and proteomic analysis to identify the proteins that also show differential expression. Tissue was obtained at autopsy under informed, written consent from uncomplicated alcoholics and age- and sex-matched controls. Alcoholics had consumed 80 g ethanol/day chronically (often, 200 g/day for 20 y). Controls either abstained or were social drinkers ( 20 g/day). All subjects had pathological confirmation of liver and brain diagnosis; none had been polydrug abusers. Samples were homogenized in water and clarified by brief centrifugation (1000g, 3 min) before storage at –80°C. For proteomics the thawed suspensions were centrifuged (15000g, 50 min) to prepare soluble fractions. Aliquots were pooled from SFC samples from the 5 chronic alcoholics and 5 matched controls used in the previous microarray study [1]. 2-Dimensional electrophoresis was performed in triplicate using 18 cm format pH 4–7 and pH 6–11 immobilized pH gradients for firstdimension isoelectric focusing. Following second-dimension SDS-PAGE the proteins were fluorescently stained and the images collected by densitometry. 182 proteins differed by 2-fold between cases and controls. 141 showed lower expression in alcoholics, 33 higher, and 8 were new or had disappeared. To date 63 proteins have been identified using MALDI-MS and MS-MS. Western blots were performed on uncentrifuged individual samples from 76 subjects (controls, uncomplicated alcoholics and cirrhotic alcoholics). A common standard was run on every gel. After transfer, immunolabeling, and densitometry, the intensities of the unknown bands were compared to those of the standards. We focused on proteins from transcripts that showed clear differences in a series of microarray studies, classified into common sets including Regulators of G-protein Signaling and Myelin-associated proteins. The preponderantly lower level of differentially expressed proteins in alcoholics parallels the microarray mRNA analysis in the same samples. We found that mRNA and protein expression do not frequently correspond; this may help identify pathogenic processes acting at the level of transcription, translation, or post-translationally.

Wolbachia transfer from Rhagoletis cerasi to Drosophila simulans: Investigating the outcomes of host-symbiont coevolution

Wolbachia is an endosymbiont of diverse arthropod lineages that can induce various alterations of host reproduction for its own benefice. Cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) is the most common phenomenon, which results in embryonic lethality when males that bear Wolbachia are mated with females that do not. In the cherry fruit fly, Rhagoletis cerasi, Wolbachia seems to be responsible for previously reported patterns of incompatibility between populations. Here we report on the artificial transfer of two Wolbachia variants (wCer1 and wCer2) from R. cerasi into Drosophila simulans, which was performed with two major goals in mind: first, to isolate wCer1 from wCer2 in order to individually test their respective abilities to induce Cl in the new host; and, second, to test the theoretical prediction that recent Wolbachia-host associations should be characterized by high levels of CI, fitness costs to the new host, and inefficient transmission from mothers to offspring. wCer1 was unable to develop in the new host, resulting in its rapid loss after successful injection, while wCer2 was established in the new host. Transmission rates of wCer2 were low, and the infection showed negative fitness effects, consistent with our prediction, but CI levels were unexpectedly lower in the new host. Based on these parameter estimates, neither wCer1 nor wCer2 could be naturally maintained in D. simulans. The experiment thus suggests that natural Wolbachia transfer between species might be restricted by many factors, should the ecological barriers be bypassed.

Testing the energetic equivalence rule with helminth endoparasites of vertebrates

As a general test of the energetic equivalence rule, we examined macroecological relationships among abundance, density and host body mass in a comparative analysis of the assemblages of trophically transmitted endoparasitic helminths of 131 species of vertebrate hosts. Both the numbers and total volume of parasites per gram of host decreased allometrically with host body mass, with slopes roughly consistent with those expected from the allometric relationship between host basal metabolic rate and body mass. From an evolutionary perspective, large body size may therefore allow hosts to escape from the deleterious effects of parasitism.

Ecological speciation

Ecological processes are central to the formation of new species when barriers to gene flow (reproductive isolation) evolve between populations as a result of ecologically-based divergent selection. Although laboratory and field studies provide evidence that 'ecological speciation' can occur, our understanding of the details of the process is incomplete. Here we review ecological speciation by considering its constituent components: an ecological source of divergent selection, a form of reproductive isolation, and a genetic mechanism linking the two. Sources of divergent selection include differences in environment or niche, certain forms of sexual selection, and the ecological interaction of populations. We explore the evidence for the contribution of each to ecological speciation. Forms of reproductive isolation are diverse and we discuss the likelihood that each may be involved in ecological speciation. Divergent selection on genes affecting ecological traits can be transmitted directly (via pleiotropy) or indirectly (via linkage disequilibrium) to genes causing reproductive isolation and we explore the consequences of both. Along with these components, we also discuss the geography and the genetic basis of ecological speciation. Throughout, we provide examples from nature, critically evaluate their quality, and highlight areas where more work is required.