897 resultados para 2447: modelling and forecasting


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Experience plays an important role in building management. “How often will this asset need repair?” or “How much time is this repair going to take?” are types of questions that project and facility managers face daily in planning activities. Failure or success in developing good schedules, budgets and other project management tasks depend on the project manager's ability to obtain reliable information to be able to answer these types of questions. Young practitioners tend to rely on information that is based on regional averages and provided by publishing companies. This is in contrast to experienced project managers who tend to rely heavily on personal experience. Another aspect of building management is that many practitioners are seeking to improve available scheduling algorithms, estimating spreadsheets and other project management tools. Such “micro-scale” levels of research are important in providing the required tools for the project manager's tasks. However, even with such tools, low quality input information will produce inaccurate schedules and budgets as output. Thus, it is also important to have a broad approach to research at a more “macro-scale.” Recent trends show that the Architectural, Engineering, Construction (AEC) industry is experiencing explosive growth in its capabilities to generate and collect data. There is a great deal of valuable knowledge that can be obtained from the appropriate use of this data and therefore the need has arisen to analyse this increasing amount of available data. Data Mining can be applied as a powerful tool to extract relevant and useful information from this sea of data. Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) and Data Mining (DM) are tools that allow identification of valid, useful, and previously unknown patterns so large amounts of project data may be analysed. These technologies combine techniques from machine learning, artificial intelligence, pattern recognition, statistics, databases, and visualization to automatically extract concepts, interrelationships, and patterns of interest from large databases. The project involves the development of a prototype tool to support facility managers, building owners and designers. This Industry focused report presents the AIMMTM prototype system and documents how and what data mining techniques can be applied, the results of their application and the benefits gained from the system. The AIMMTM system is capable of searching for useful patterns of knowledge and correlations within the existing building maintenance data to support decision making about future maintenance operations. The application of the AIMMTM prototype system on building models and their maintenance data (supplied by industry partners) utilises various data mining algorithms and the maintenance data is analysed using interactive visual tools. The application of the AIMMTM prototype system to help in improving maintenance management and building life cycle includes: (i) data preparation and cleaning, (ii) integrating meaningful domain attributes, (iii) performing extensive data mining experiments in which visual analysis (using stacked histograms), classification and clustering techniques, associative rule mining algorithm such as “Apriori” and (iv) filtering and refining data mining results, including the potential implications of these results for improving maintenance management. Maintenance data of a variety of asset types were selected for demonstration with the aim of discovering meaningful patterns to assist facility managers in strategic planning and provide a knowledge base to help shape future requirements and design briefing. Utilising the prototype system developed here, positive and interesting results regarding patterns and structures of data have been obtained.

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This paper analyzes the performance of some of the widely used voltage stability indices, namely, singular value, eigenvalue, and loading margin with different static load models. Well-known ZIP model is used to represent loads having components with different power to voltage sensitivities. Studies are carried out on a 10-bus power system and the New England 39-bus power system models. The effects of variation of load model on the performance of the voltage stability indices are discussed. The choice of voltage stability index in the context of load modelling is also suggested in this paper.

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Typical quadrotor aerial robots used in research weigh inlMMLBox and carry payloads measured in hundreds of grams. Several obstacles in design and control must be overcome to cater for expected industry demands that push the boundaries of existing quadrotor performance. The X-4 Flyer, a 4 kg quadrotor with a 1 kg payload, is intended to be prototypical of useful commercial quadrotors. The custom-built craft uses tuned plant dynamics with an onboard embedded attitude controller to stabilise flight. Independent linear SISO controllers were designed to regulate flyer attitude. The performance of the system is demonstrated in indoor and outdoor flight.

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To date, most quad-rotor aerial robots have been based on flying toys. Although such systems can be used as prototypes, they are not sufficiently robust to serve as experimental robotics platforms. We have developed the X-4 Flyer, a quad-rotor robot using custom-built chassis and avionics with off-the-shelf motors and batteries, to be a highly reliable experimental platform. The vehicle uses tuned plant dynamics with an onboard embedded attitude controller to stabilise flight. A linear SISO controller was designed to regulate flyer attitude.

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An Asset Management (AM) life-cycle constitutes a set of processes that align with the development, operation and maintenance of assets, in order to meet the desired requirements and objectives of the stake holders of the business. The scope of AM is often broad within an organization due to the interactions between its internal elements such as human resources, finance, technology, engineering operation, information technology and management, as well as external elements such as governance and environment. Due to the complexity of the AM processes, it has been proposed that in order to optimize asset management activities, process modelling initiatives should be adopted. Although organisations adopt AM principles and carry out AM initiatives, most do not document or model their AM processes, let alone enacting their processes (semi-) automatically using a computer-supported system. There is currently a lack of knowledge describing how to model AM processes through a methodical and suitable manner so that the processes are streamlines and optimized and are ready for deployment in a computerised way. This research aims to overcome this deficiency by developing an approach that will aid organisations in constructing AM process models quickly and systematically whilst using the most appropriate techniques, such as workflow technology. Currently, there is a wealth of information within the individual domains of AM and workflow. Both fields are gaining significant popularity in many industries thus fuelling the need for research in exploring the possible benefits of their cross-disciplinary applications. This research is thus inspired to investigate these two domains to exploit the application of workflow to modelling and execution of AM processes. Specifically, it will investigate appropriate methodologies in applying workflow techniques to AM frameworks. One of the benefits of applying workflow models to AM processes is to adapt and enable both ad-hoc and evolutionary changes over time. In addition, this can automate an AM process as well as to support the coordination and collaboration of people that are involved in carrying out the process. A workflow management system (WFMS) can be used to support the design and enactment (i.e. execution) of processes and cope with changes that occur to the process during the enactment. So far few literatures can be found in documenting a systematic approach to modelling the characteristics of AM processes. In order to obtain a workflow model for AM processes commonalities and differences between different AM processes need to be identified. This is the fundamental step in developing a conscientious workflow model for AM processes. Therefore, the first stage of this research focuses on identifying the characteristics of AM processes, especially AM decision making processes. The second stage is to review a number of contemporary workflow techniques and choose a suitable technique for application to AM decision making processes. The third stage is to develop an intermediate ameliorated AM decision process definition that improves the current process description and is ready for modelling using the workflow language selected in the previous stage. All these lead to the fourth stage where a workflow model for an AM decision making process is developed. The process model is then deployed (semi-) automatically in a state-of-the-art WFMS demonstrating the benefits of applying workflow technology to the domain of AM. Given that the information in the AM decision making process is captured at an abstract level within the scope of this work, the deployed process model can be used as an executable guideline for carrying out an AM decision process in practice. Moreover, it can be used as a vanilla system that, once being incorporated with rich information from a specific AM decision making process (e.g. in the case of a building construction or a power plant maintenance), is able to support the automation of such a process in a more elaborated way.

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Many large coal mining operations in Australia rely heavily on the rail network to transport coal from mines to coal terminals at ports for shipment. Over the last few years, due to the fast growing demand, the coal rail network is becoming one of the worst industrial bottlenecks in Australia. As a result, this provides great incentives for pursuing better optimisation and control strategies for the operation of the whole rail transportation system under network and terminal capacity constraints. This PhD research aims to achieve a significant efficiency improvement in a coal rail network on the basis of the development of standard modelling approaches and generic solution techniques. Generally, the train scheduling problem can be modelled as a Blocking Parallel- Machine Job-Shop Scheduling (BPMJSS) problem. In a BPMJSS model for train scheduling, trains and sections respectively are synonymous with jobs and machines and an operation is regarded as the movement/traversal of a train across a section. To begin, an improved shifting bottleneck procedure algorithm combined with metaheuristics has been developed to efficiently solve the Parallel-Machine Job- Shop Scheduling (PMJSS) problems without the blocking conditions. Due to the lack of buffer space, the real-life train scheduling should consider blocking or hold-while-wait constraints, which means that a track section cannot release and must hold a train until the next section on the routing becomes available. As a consequence, the problem has been considered as BPMJSS with the blocking conditions. To develop efficient solution techniques for BPMJSS, extensive studies on the nonclassical scheduling problems regarding the various buffer conditions (i.e. blocking, no-wait, limited-buffer, unlimited-buffer and combined-buffer) have been done. In this procedure, an alternative graph as an extension of the classical disjunctive graph is developed and specially designed for the non-classical scheduling problems such as the blocking flow-shop scheduling (BFSS), no-wait flow-shop scheduling (NWFSS), and blocking job-shop scheduling (BJSS) problems. By exploring the blocking characteristics based on the alternative graph, a new algorithm called the topological-sequence algorithm is developed for solving the non-classical scheduling problems. To indicate the preeminence of the proposed algorithm, we compare it with two known algorithms (i.e. Recursive Procedure and Directed Graph) in the literature. Moreover, we define a new type of non-classical scheduling problem, called combined-buffer flow-shop scheduling (CBFSS), which covers four extreme cases: the classical FSS (FSS) with infinite buffer, the blocking FSS (BFSS) with no buffer, the no-wait FSS (NWFSS) and the limited-buffer FSS (LBFSS). After exploring the structural properties of CBFSS, we propose an innovative constructive algorithm named the LK algorithm to construct the feasible CBFSS schedule. Detailed numerical illustrations for the various cases are presented and analysed. By adjusting only the attributes in the data input, the proposed LK algorithm is generic and enables the construction of the feasible schedules for many types of non-classical scheduling problems with different buffer constraints. Inspired by the shifting bottleneck procedure algorithm for PMJSS and characteristic analysis based on the alternative graph for non-classical scheduling problems, a new constructive algorithm called the Feasibility Satisfaction Procedure (FSP) is proposed to obtain the feasible BPMJSS solution. A real-world train scheduling case is used for illustrating and comparing the PMJSS and BPMJSS models. Some real-life applications including considering the train length, upgrading the track sections, accelerating a tardy train and changing the bottleneck sections are discussed. Furthermore, the BPMJSS model is generalised to be a No-Wait Blocking Parallel- Machine Job-Shop Scheduling (NWBPMJSS) problem for scheduling the trains with priorities, in which prioritised trains such as express passenger trains are considered simultaneously with non-prioritised trains such as freight trains. In this case, no-wait conditions, which are more restrictive constraints than blocking constraints, arise when considering the prioritised trains that should traverse continuously without any interruption or any unplanned pauses because of the high cost of waiting during travel. In comparison, non-prioritised trains are allowed to enter the next section immediately if possible or to remain in a section until the next section on the routing becomes available. Based on the FSP algorithm, a more generic algorithm called the SE algorithm is developed to solve a class of train scheduling problems in terms of different conditions in train scheduling environments. To construct the feasible train schedule, the proposed SE algorithm consists of many individual modules including the feasibility-satisfaction procedure, time-determination procedure, tune-up procedure and conflict-resolve procedure algorithms. To find a good train schedule, a two-stage hybrid heuristic algorithm called the SE-BIH algorithm is developed by combining the constructive heuristic (i.e. the SE algorithm) and the local-search heuristic (i.e. the Best-Insertion- Heuristic algorithm). To optimise the train schedule, a three-stage algorithm called the SE-BIH-TS algorithm is developed by combining the tabu search (TS) metaheuristic with the SE-BIH algorithm. Finally, a case study is performed for a complex real-world coal rail network under network and terminal capacity constraints. The computational results validate that the proposed methodology would be very promising because it can be applied as a fundamental tool for modelling and solving many real-world scheduling problems.

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Shaft-mounted gearboxes are widely used in industry. The torque arm that holds the reactive torque on the housing of the gearbox, if properly positioned creates the reactive force that lifts the gearbox and unloads the bearings of the output shaft. The shortcoming of these torque arms is that if the gearbox is reversed the direction of the reactive force on the torque arm changes to opposite and added to the weight of the gearbox overloads the bearings shortening their operating life. In this paper, a new patented design of torque arms that develop a controlled lifting force and counteract the weight of the gearbox regardless of the direction of the output shaft rotation is described. Several mathematical models of the conventional and new torque arms were developed and verified experimentally on a specially built test rig that enables modelling of the radial compliance of the gearbox bearings and elastic elements of the torque arms. Comparison showed a good agreement between theoretical and experimental results.