A reversible infinite HMM using normalised random measures

Copyright 2014 by the author(s). We present a nonparametric prior over reversible Markov chains. We use completely random measures, specifically gamma processes, to construct a countably infinite graph with weighted edges. By enforcing symmetry to make the edges undirected we define a prior over random walks on graphs that results in a reversible Markov chain. The resulting prior over infinite transition matrices is closely related to the hierarchical Dirichlet process but enforces reversibility. A reinforcement scheme has recently been proposed with similar properties, but the de Finetti measure is not well characterised. We take the alternative approach of explicitly constructing the mixing measure, which allows more straightforward and efficient inference at the cost of no longer having a closed form predictive distribution. We use our process to construct a reversible infinite HMM which we apply to two real datasets, one from epigenomics and one ion channel recording.

洞穴碳酸盐^230Th-^234U-^238U测年初始钍校正的等时线研究

IEECAS SKLLQG

Convergence and tracking analysis of a variable normalised LMF (XE-NLMF) algorithm

The least-mean-fourth (LMF) algorithm is known for its fast convergence and lower steady state error, especially in sub-Gaussian noise environments. Recent work on normalised versions of the LMF algorithm has further enhanced its stability and performance in both Gaussian and sub-Gaussian noise environments. For example, the recently developed normalised LMF (XE-NLMF) algorithm is normalised by the mixed signal and error powers, and weighted by a fixed mixed-power parameter. Unfortunately, this algorithm depends on the selection of this mixing parameter. In this work, a time-varying mixed-power parameter technique is introduced to overcome this dependency. A convergence analysis, transient analysis, and steady-state behaviour of the proposed algorithm are derived and verified through simulations. An enhancement in performance is obtained through the use of this technique in two different scenarios. Moreover, the tracking analysis of the proposed algorithm is carried out in the presence of two sources of nonstationarities: (1) carrier frequency offset between transmitter and receiver and (2) random variations in the environment. Close agreement between analysis and simulation results is obtained. The results show that, unlike in the stationary case, the steady-state excess mean-square error is not a monotonically increasing function of the step size. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Aberrant brain responses to emotionally valent words is normalised after cognitive behavioural therapy in female depressed adolescents

AbstractBackground Depression in adolescence is debilitating with high recurrence in adulthood, yet its pathophysiological mechanism remains enigmatic. To examine the interaction between emotion, cognition and treatment, functional brain responses to sad and happy distractors in an affective go/no-go task were explored before and after Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT) in depressed female adolescents, and healthy participants. Methods Eighty-two Depressed and 24 healthy female adolescents, aged 12 to 17 years, performed a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) affective go/no-go task at baseline. Participants were instructed to withhold their responses upon seeing happy or sad words. Among these participants, 13 patients had CBT over approximately 30 weeks. These participants and 20 matched controls then repeated the task. Results At baseline, increased activation in response to happy relative to neutral distractors was observed in the orbitofrontal cortex in depressed patients which was normalized after CBT. No significant group differences were found behaviourally or in brain activation in response to sad distractors. Improvements in symptoms (mean: 9.31, 95% CI: 5.35-13.27) were related at trend-level to activation changes in orbitofrontal cortex. Limitations In the follow-up section, a limited number of post-CBT patients were recruited. Conclusions To our knowledge, this is the first fMRI study addressing the effect of CBT in adolescent depression. Although a bias toward negative information is widely accepted as a hallmark of depression, aberrant brain hyperactivity to positive distractors was found and normalised after CBT. Research, assessment and treatment focused on positive stimuli could be a future consideration. Moreover, a pathophysiological mechanism distinct from adult depression may be suggested and awaits further exploration.

Bayesian model comparison with un-normalised likelihoods

Models for which the likelihood function can be evaluated only up to a parameter-dependent unknown normalizing constant, such as Markov random field models, are used widely in computer science, statistical physics, spatial statistics, and network analysis. However, Bayesian analysis of these models using standard Monte Carlo methods is not possible due to the intractability of their likelihood functions. Several methods that permit exact, or close to exact, simulation from the posterior distribution have recently been developed. However, estimating the evidence and Bayes’ factors for these models remains challenging in general. This paper describes new random weight importance sampling and sequential Monte Carlo methods for estimating BFs that use simulation to circumvent the evaluation of the intractable likelihood, and compares them to existing methods. In some cases we observe an advantage in the use of biased weight estimates. An initial investigation into the theoretical and empirical properties of this class of methods is presented. Some support for the use of biased estimates is presented, but we advocate caution in the use of such estimates.

Clinical sensemaking: a systematic approach to reduce the impact of normalised deviance in the medical profession

organisational culture, quality assurance, health care, state medicine, Great Britain, Health care reform, quality improvement

Radiocarbon, isotope, biogenic, and 230Th measurements for sediment core RC10-196

The subarctic North Pacific Ocean holds a large CO2 reservoir that is currently isolated from the atmosphere by a low-salinity layer. It has recently been hypothesized that the reorganization of these high-CO2 waters may have played a crucial role in the degassing of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere during the last deglaciation. This reorganization would leave some imprint on paleo-productivity records. Here we present 230Th-normalized biogenic fluxes from an intermediate depth sediment core in the Northwest Pacific (RC10-196, 54.7°N, 177.1°E, 1007 m) and place them within the context of a synthesis of previously-published biogenic flux data from 49 deep-sea cores north of 20°N, ranging from 420 to 3968 m water depth. The 230Th-normalized opal, carbonate, and organic carbon fluxes from RC10-196 peak approximately 13,000 calendar years BP during the Bølling/Allerød (B/A) period. Our data synthesis suggests that biogenic fluxes were in general lowest during the last glacial period, increased somewhat in the Northwest Pacific during Heinrich Event 1, and reached a maximum across the entire North Pacific during the B/A period. We evaluate several mechanisms as possible drivers of deglacial change in biogenic fluxes in the North Pacific, including changes in preservation, sediment focusing, sea ice extent, iron inputs, stratification, and circulation shifts initiated in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Our analysis suggests that while micronutrient sources likely contributed to some of the observed changes, the heterogeneity in timing of glaciogenic retreat and sea level make these mechanisms unlikely causes of region-wide contemporaneous peaks in export production. We argue that paleo-observations are most consistent with ventilation increases in both the North Pacific (during H1) and North Atlantic (during B/A) being the primary drivers of increases in biogenic flux during the deglaciation, as respectively they were likely to bring nutrients to the surface via increased vertical mixing and shoaling of the global thermocline.