Multi-year droughts in Europe: analysis of development and causes

Whilst hydrological systems can show resilience to short-term streamflow deficiencies during within-year droughts, prolonged deficits during multi-year droughts are a significant threat to water resources security in Europe. This study uses a threshold-based objective classification of regional hydrological drought to qualitatively examine the characteristics, spatio-temporal evolution and synoptic climatic drivers of multi-year drought events in 1962–64, 1975–76 and 1995–97, on a European scale but with particular focus on the UK. Whilst all three events are multi-year, pan-European phenomena, their development and causes can be contrasted. The critical factor in explaining the unprecedented severity of the 1975–76 event is the consecutive occurrence of winter and summer drought. In contrast, 1962–64 was a succession of dry winters, mitigated by quiescent summers, whilst 1995–97 lacked spatial coherence and was interrupted by wet interludes. Synoptic climatic conditions vary within and between multi-year droughts, suggesting that regional factors modulate the climate signal in streamflow drought occurrence. Despite being underpinned by qualitatively similar climatic conditions and commonalities in evolution and characteristics, each of the three droughts has a unique spatio-temporal signature. An improved understanding of the spatio-temporal evolution and characteristics of multi-year droughts has much to contribute to monitoring and forecasting capability, and to improved mitigation strategies.

The effects of Ikea and external shopping centers on regional trade and retail growth : A comparative analysis of Ikea’s establishment in Kalmar and Karlstad

This paper examines the effects of Ikea store establishment in Kalmar and Karlstad on the trade and retail inside the two cities, and as well on the trade and retail in the close neighboring municipalities and in further peripheral municipalities in both regions. After the establishment of Ikea store, Kalmar and Karlstad have experienced significant growth in trade and retail. The question, however, is how big this growth is in both cities? And how different locations on different distances from Ikea have been affected? What impact there was on different segments of the retail? How different business branches have been affected? How large the catchment area for the emerging new large-scale retail locations is? These questions, in addition to few others, are investigated in this paper. The thesis starts with an introduction chapter containing a background of the topic, problem description, the investigated questions, the purpose, and the outline of the paper. The next chapter includes the frame of reference which consists of literature review and theoretical framework about the external shopping centers and their impact on retail and regional trade development. It includes also information gathered from previous studies technical reports and other available sources about the subject. The third chapter includes description for the methods used to collect the primary and secondary data needed for the purpose of this study. Then the empirical framework which demonstrates the results of the conducted research followed by analysis and concluded in discussion and conclusion. Mixed methods are used as research strategy in this thesis, and the method to conduct the research is based on telephone interviews for the primary (qualitative) data, and documents and desk research for the secondary (quantitative) data. The gathered data is analyzed and designed in a way that allows the usage of comparative analysis technique to present the findings and draw conclusions. The results showed that new established Ikea retail store outside the city boundaries results with many effects on the city center and on the neighboring municipalities as well. The city center seems not to be affected negatively, but on the contrary positive effects were witnessed in both regions, these positive effects are linked to the increase inflow of customers from the external retail area which is known as spillover effect. III On the other hand, the neighboring towns and municipalities are more negatively affected especially with the trade of con-convenience goods as the consumers in these towns and municipalities start to go to the area of Ikea and the large external retail center to do their purchasing, the substitution effect is then said to be occurred. Moreover, the further far municipalities do not seem to be significantly affected by the establishment of Ikea. These effects whether positive or negative could be monitored by looking to few trade parameters such as the turnover, the sales index, and the consumers’ expenditure, these parameters can be very useful to measure the developments and changes in the trade and retail in a given place. 

Market Prices and Food Aid Local and Regional Procurement and Distribution: A Multi-Country Analysis

To date, no research has rigorously addressed the concern that local and regional procurement (LRP) of food aid could affect food prices and food price volatility in food aid source and recipient countries. We assemble spatially and temporally disaggregated data and estimate the relationship between food prices and their volatility and local food aid procurement and distribution across seven countries for several commodities. In most cases, LRP activities have no statistically significant relationship with either local price levels or food price volatility. The few exceptions underscore the importance of market monitoring. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The development of the N1 and N2 components in auditory oddball paradigms: a systematic review with narrative analysis and suggested normative values

Auditory event-related potentials (AERPs) are widely used in diverse fields of today’s neuroscience, concerning auditory processing, speech perception, language acquisition, neurodevelopment, attention and cognition in normal aging, gender, developmental, neurologic and psychiatric disorders. However, its transposition to clinical practice has remained minimal. Mainly due to scarce literature on normative data across age, wide spectrumof results, variety of auditory stimuli used and to different neuropsychological meanings of AERPs components between authors. One of the most prominent AERP components studied in last decades was N1, which reflects auditory detection and discrimination. Subsequently, N2 indicates attention allocation and phonological analysis. The simultaneous analysis of N1 and N2 elicited by feasible novelty experimental paradigms, such as auditory oddball, seems an objective method to assess central auditory processing. The aim of this systematic review was to bring forward normative values for auditory oddball N1 and N2 components across age. EBSCO, PubMed, Web of Knowledge and Google Scholarwere systematically searched for studies that elicited N1 and/or N2 by auditory oddball paradigm. A total of 2,764 papers were initially identified in the database, of which 19 resulted from hand search and additional references, between 1988 and 2013, last 25 years. A final total of 68 studiesmet the eligibility criteria with a total of 2,406 participants from control groups for N1 (age range 6.6–85 years; mean 34.42) and 1,507 for N2 (age range 9–85 years; mean 36.13). Polynomial regression analysis revealed thatN1latency decreases with aging at Fz and Cz,N1 amplitude at Cz decreases from childhood to adolescence and stabilizes after 30–40 years and at Fz the decrement finishes by 60 years and highly increases after this age. Regarding N2, latency did not covary with age but amplitude showed a significant decrement for both Cz and Fz. Results suggested reliable normative values for Cz and Fz electrode locations; however, changes in brain development and components topography over age should be considered in clinical practice.

Urban sprawl analysis and modeling in Asmara, Eritreia: Application of Geospatial Tools

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Analysis, testing and development of safe cleaning methods of rusted stone material

Three different treatments were applied on several specimens of dolomitic and calcitic marble, properly stained with rust to mimic real situations (the stone specimens were exposed to the natural environment for about six months in contact with rusted iron). Thirty six marble specimens, eighteen calcitic and eighteen dolomitic, were characterized before and after treatment and monitored throughout the cleaning tests. The specimens were characterized by SEM-EDS (Scanning Electron Microscopy coupled with Energy Dispersion System), XRD (XRay Diffraction), XRF (X-Ray Fluorescence), FTIR (Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy) and color measurements. It was also made a microscopic and macroscopic analysis of the stone surface along with the tests of short and long term capillary absorption. A series of test trials were conducted in order to understand which concentrations and contact times best suits to this purpose, to confirm what had been written to date in the literature. We sought to develop new methods of treatment application, skipping the usual methods of applying chemical treatments on stone substrates, with the use of cellulose poultice, resorting to the agar, a gel already used in many other areas, being something new in this area, which possesses great applicability in the field of conservation of stone materials. After the application of the best methodology for cleaning, specimens were characterized again in order to understand which treatment was more effective and less harmful, both for the operator and the stone material. Very briefly conclusions were that for a very intense and deep penetration into the stone, a solution of 3.5% of SDT buffered with ammonium carbonate to pH around 7 applied with agar support would be indicated. For rust stains in its initial state, the use of Ammonium citrate at a concentration of 5% buffered with ammonium to pH 7 could be applied more than once until satisfactory results appear.

A comparative analysis of sustainable tourism, planning and development between Sligo and Donegal County Councils

Sustainable Development requires appropriate and continuous planning and management of economic, socio cultural and environmental resources. Tourism planning calls for continuous collaboration among tourism agencies, local authorities and local communities for success of the industry. While evidence suggests that tourism planning has been extensively documented, it is apparent that Donegal and Sligo County Councils have, in some cases failed to adequately address the significance of planning of the tourism industry for the North West of Ireland. This was investigated through interviews with chief planners of Donegal and Sligo county councils and was conducted in conjunction with the analysis of county development plans; which were formulated by both organisations involved in this study. Evidence suggests that although tourism is extensively documented by Donegal and Sligo county councils, neither of the two local authorities have developed implementation strategies to facilitate the promotion of sustainable tourism development. This research compares and analyses Donegal and Sligo county councils and how they plan for sustainable tourism development. It outlines the role of the county councils in relation to tourism planning and how Donegal and Sligo compare in how they plan for such a significant industry in the North West o f Ireland. It highlights the importance of implementation tools and methods and offers future directions that can assist in the development of sustainable tourism.

Analysis of functional impairments of the human P2Y 11 nucleotide receptor with the alanine-87 - threonine mutation, and development of novel agonists specific for the human P2Y 11 and P2Y 6 receptors

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Naturwiss., Diss., 2015

Predictive analysis and mapping of indoor radon concentrations in Switzerland

It is estimated that around 230 people die each year due to radon (222Rn) exposure in Switzerland. 222Rn occurs mainly in closed environments like buildings and originates primarily from the subjacent ground. Therefore it depends strongly on geology and shows substantial regional variations. Correct identification of these regional variations would lead to substantial reduction of 222Rn exposure of the population based on appropriate construction of new and mitigation of already existing buildings. Prediction of indoor 222Rn concentrations (IRC) and identification of 222Rn prone areas is however difficult since IRC depend on a variety of different variables like building characteristics, meteorology, geology and anthropogenic factors. The present work aims at the development of predictive models and the understanding of IRC in Switzerland, taking into account a maximum of information in order to minimize the prediction uncertainty. The predictive maps will be used as a decision-support tool for 222Rn risk management. The construction of these models is based on different data-driven statistical methods, in combination with geographical information systems (GIS). In a first phase we performed univariate analysis of IRC for different variables, namely the detector type, building category, foundation, year of construction, the average outdoor temperature during measurement, altitude and lithology. All variables showed significant associations to IRC. Buildings constructed after 1900 showed significantly lower IRC compared to earlier constructions. We observed a further drop of IRC after 1970. In addition to that, we found an association of IRC with altitude. With regard to lithology, we observed the lowest IRC in sedimentary rocks (excluding carbonates) and sediments and the highest IRC in the Jura carbonates and igneous rock. The IRC data was systematically analyzed for potential bias due to spatially unbalanced sampling of measurements. In order to facilitate the modeling and the interpretation of the influence of geology on IRC, we developed an algorithm based on k-medoids clustering which permits to define coherent geological classes in terms of IRC. We performed a soil gas 222Rn concentration (SRC) measurement campaign in order to determine the predictive power of SRC with respect to IRC. We found that the use of SRC is limited for IRC prediction. The second part of the project was dedicated to predictive mapping of IRC using models which take into account the multidimensionality of the process of 222Rn entry into buildings. We used kernel regression and ensemble regression tree for this purpose. We could explain up to 33% of the variance of the log transformed IRC all over Switzerland. This is a good performance compared to former attempts of IRC modeling in Switzerland. As predictor variables we considered geographical coordinates, altitude, outdoor temperature, building type, foundation, year of construction and detector type. Ensemble regression trees like random forests allow to determine the role of each IRC predictor in a multidimensional setting. We found spatial information like geology, altitude and coordinates to have stronger influences on IRC than building related variables like foundation type, building type and year of construction. Based on kernel estimation we developed an approach to determine the local probability of IRC to exceed 300 Bq/m3. In addition to that we developed a confidence index in order to provide an estimate of uncertainty of the map. All methods allow an easy creation of tailor-made maps for different building characteristics. Our work is an essential step towards a 222Rn risk assessment which accounts at the same time for different architectural situations as well as geological and geographical conditions. For the communication of 222Rn hazard to the population we recommend to make use of the probability map based on kernel estimation. The communication of 222Rn hazard could for example be implemented via a web interface where the users specify the characteristics and coordinates of their home in order to obtain the probability to be above a given IRC with a corresponding index of confidence. Taking into account the health effects of 222Rn, our results have the potential to substantially improve the estimation of the effective dose from 222Rn delivered to the Swiss population.

Concrete Pavement Mixture Design and Analysis (MDA): Development and Evaluation of Vibrating Kelly Ball Test (VKelly Test) for the Workability of Concrete, 2015

Due to the low workability of slipform concrete mixtures, the science of rheology is not strictly applicable for such concrete. However, the concept of rheological behavior may still be considered useful. A novel workability test method (Vibrating Kelly Ball or VKelly test) that would quantitatively assess the responsiveness of a dry concrete mixture to vibration, as is desired of a mixture suitable for slipform paving, was developed and evaluated. The objectives of this test method are for it to be cost-effective, portable, and repeatable while reporting the suitability of a mixture for use in slipform paving. The work to evaluate and refine the test was conducted in three phases: 1. Assess whether the VKelly test can signal variations in laboratory mixtures with a range of materials and proportions 2. Run the VKelly test in the field at a number of construction sites 3. Validate the VKelly test results using the Box Test developed at Oklahoma State University for slipform paving concrete The data collected to date indicate that the VKelly test appears to be suitable for assessing a mixture’s response to vibration (workability) with a low multiple operator variability. A unique parameter, VKelly Index, is introduced and defined that seems to indicate that a mixture is suitable for slipform paving when it falls in the range of 0.8 to 1.2 in./√s.

Analysis and Forecast of Housing Needs in Iowa Technical Report, January 22, 2013

The research and analysis summarized in this report prepared by Gruen Gruen + Associates (“GG+A”) provides an information base about population, household, housing, and employment conditions and trends affecting the current and future housing needs of Iowans. It also provides a synthesis of how the housing needs of Iowans have changed over the past decade and how needs are likely to continue to change over the present decade (2010-2020), given forecast employment and population growth in Iowa.

Analysis, improvement, and development of new firmware for the smart citizen kit ambient board

The objective of this project was to develop firmware for both the Arduino-compatible boards of the Smart Citizen initiative, and for the RTX4100 low-power WiFi.

Optimization of solvent mixtures for extraction from bark of Schinus terebinthifolius by a statistical mixture-design technique and development of a UV-Vis spectrophotometric method for analysis of total polyphenols in the extract

A statistical mixture-design technique was used to study the effects of different solvents and their mixtures on the yield, total polyphenol content, and antioxidant capacity of the crude extracts from the bark of Schinus terebinthifolius Raddi (Anacardiaceae). The experimental results and their response-surface models showed that ternary mixtures with equal portions of all the three solvents (water, ethanol and acetone) were better than the binary mixtures in generating crude extracts with the highest yield (22.04 ± 0.48%), total polyphenol content (29.39 ± 0.39%), and antioxidant capacity (6.38 ± 0.21). An analytical method was developed and validated for the determination of total polyphenols in the extracts. Optimal conditions for the various parameters in this analytical method, namely, the time for the chromophoric reaction to stabilize, wavelength of the absorption maxima to be monitored, the reference standard and the concentration of sodium carbonate were determined to be 5 min, 780 nm, pyrogallol, and 14.06% w v-1, respectively. UV-Vis spectrophotometric monitoring of the reaction under these conditions proved the method to be linear, specific, precise, accurate, reproducible, robust, and easy to perform.

Object-oriented Programming Applied to the Development of Structural Analysis and Optimization Software

This paper presents the development of a two-dimensional interactive software environment for structural analysis and optimization based on object-oriented programming using the C++ language. The main feature of the software is the effective integration of several computational tools into graphical user interfaces implemented in the Windows-98 and Windows-NT operating systems. The interfaces simplify data specification in the simulation and optimization of two-dimensional linear elastic problems. NURBS have been used in the software modules to represent geometric and graphical data. Extensions to the analysis of three-dimensional problems have been implemented and are also discussed in this paper.