Harsanyi’s Social Aggregation Theorem : A Multi-Profile Approach with Variable-Population Extensions

This paper provides new versions of Harsanyi’s social aggregation theorem that are formulated in terms of prospects rather than lotteries. Strengthening an earlier result, fixed-population ex-ante utilitarianism is characterized in a multi-profile setting with fixed probabilities. In addition, we extend the social aggregation theorem to social-evaluation problems under uncertainty with a variable population and generalize our approach to uncertain alternatives, which consist of compound vectors of probability distributions and prospects.

Choosing Wisely: The Natural Multi-Bidding Mechanism

Pérez-Castrillo and Wettstein (2002) propose a multi-bidding mechanism to determine a winner from a set of possible projects. The winning project is implemented and its surplus is shared among the agents. In the multi-bidding mechanism each agent announces a vector of bids, one for each possible project, that are constrained to sum up to zero. In addition, each agent chooses a favorite a object which is used as a tie-breaker if several projects receive the same highest aggregate bid. Since more desirable projects receive larger bids, it is natural to consider the multi-bidding mechanism without the announcement of favorite projects. We show that the merits of the multi-bidding mechanism appear not to be robust to this natural simplification. Specifically, a Nash equilibrium exists if and only if there are at least two individually optimal projects and all individually optimal projects are efficient.

Consistent Relations

Consistency, a natural weakening of transitivity introduced in a seminal contribution by Suzumura (1976b), has turned out to be an interesting and promising concept in a variety of areas within economic theory. This paper summarizes its recent applications and provides some new observations in welfarist social choice and in population ethics. In particular, it is shown that the conclusion of the welfarism theorem remains true if transitivity is replaced by consistency and that an impossibility result in variable-population social-choice theory turns into a possibility if transitivity is weakened to consistency.

Solidarity in Choosing a Location on a Cycle

We study the implications of two solidarity conditions on the efficient location of a public good on a cycle, when agents have single-peaked, symmetric preferences. Both conditions require that when circumstances change, the agents not responsible for the change should all be affected in the same direction: either they all gain or they all loose. The first condition, population-monotonicity, applies to arrival or departure of one agent. The second, replacement-domination, applies to changes in the preferences of one agent. Unfortunately, no Pareto-efficient solution satisfies any of these properties. However, if agents’ preferred points are restricted to the vertices of a small regular polygon inscribed in the circle, solutions exist. We characterize them as a class of efficient priority rules.

Speed-cohesion trade-offs in collective decision making in ants and the concept of precision in animal behaviour

In decision making, speed-accuracy trade-offs are well known and often inevitable because accuracy depends on being well informed and gathering information takes time. However, trade-offs between speed and cohesion, that is the degree to which a group remains together as a single entity, as a result of their decision making, have been comparatively neglected. We combine theory and experimentation to show that in decision-making systems, speed-cohesion trade-offs are a natural complement to speed-accuracy trade-offs and are therefore of general importance. We then analyse the decision performance of 32 rock ant, Temnothorax albipennis, colonies in experiments in which accuracy of collective decision making was held constant, but time urgency varied. These experiments reveal for the first time an adaptive speed-cohesion trade-off in collective decision making and how this is achieved. In accord with different time constraints, colonies can decide quickly, at the cost of social unity, or they can decide slowly with much greater cohesion. We discuss the similarity between cohesion and the term precision as used in statistics and engineering. This emphasizes the generality of speed versus cohesion/precision trade-offs in decision making and decision implementation in other fields within animal behaviour such as sexually selected motor displays and even certain aspects of birdsong. We also suggest that speed versus precision trade-offs may occur when individuals within a group need to synchronize their activity, and in collective navigation, cooperative hunting and in certain escape behaviours.

Publication trends of shared decision making in 15 high impact medical journals: a full-text review with bibliometric analysis.

BACKGROUND: Shared Decision Making (SDM) is increasingly advocated as a model for medical decision making. However, there is still low use of SDM in clinical practice. High impact factor journals might represent an efficient way for its dissemination. We aimed to identify and characterize publication trends of SDM in 15 high impact medical journals. METHODS: We selected the 15 general and internal medicine journals with the highest impact factor publishing original articles, letters and editorials. We retrieved publications from 1996 to 2011 through the full-text search function on each journal website and abstracted bibliometric data. We included publications of any type containing the phrase "shared decision making" or five other variants in their abstract or full text. These were referred to as SDM publications. A polynomial Poisson regression model with logarithmic link function was used to assess the evolution across the period of the number of SDM publications according to publication characteristics. RESULTS: We identified 1285 SDM publications out of 229,179 publications in 15 journals from 1996 to 2011. The absolute number of SDM publications by journal ranged from 2 to 273 over 16 years. SDM publications increased both in absolute and relative numbers per year, from 46 (0.32% relative to all publications from the 15 journals) in 1996 to 165 (1.17%) in 2011. This growth was exponential (PR01;<R01;0.01). We found fewer research publications (465, 36.2% of all SDM publications) than non-research publications, which included non-systematic reviews, letters, and editorials. The increase of research publications across time was linear. Full-text search retrieved ten times more SDM publications than a similar PubMed search (1285 vs. 119 respectively). CONCLUSION: This review in full-text showed that SDM publications increased exponentially in major medical journals from 1996 to 2011. This growth might reflect an increased dissemination of the SDM concept to the medical community.

Publication trends of shared decision making in 15 high impact medical journals: a full-text review with bibliometric analysis.

BACKGROUND: Shared Decision Making (SDM) is increasingly advocated as a model for medical decision making. However, there is still low use of SDM in clinical practice. High impact factor journals might represent an efficient way for its dissemination. We aimed to identify and characterize publication trends of SDM in 15 high impact medical journals. METHODS: We selected the 15 general and internal medicine journals with the highest impact factor publishing original articles, letters and editorials. We retrieved publications from 1996 to 2011 through the full-text search function on each journal website and abstracted bibliometric data. We included publications of any type containing the phrase "shared decision making" or five other variants in their abstract or full text. These were referred to as SDM publications. A polynomial Poisson regression model with logarithmic link function was used to assess the evolution across the period of the number of SDM publications according to publication characteristics. RESULTS: We identified 1285 SDM publications out of 229,179 publications in 15 journals from 1996 to 2011. The absolute number of SDM publications by journal ranged from 2 to 273 over 16 years. SDM publications increased both in absolute and relative numbers per year, from 46 (0.32% relative to all publications from the 15 journals) in 1996 to 165 (1.17%) in 2011. This growth was exponential (PR01;<R01;0.01). We found fewer research publications (465, 36.2% of all SDM publications) than non-research publications, which included non-systematic reviews, letters, and editorials. The increase of research publications across time was linear. Full-text search retrieved ten times more SDM publications than a similar PubMed search (1285 vs. 119 respectively). CONCLUSION: This review in full-text showed that SDM publications increased exponentially in major medical journals from 1996 to 2011. This growth might reflect an increased dissemination of the SDM concept to the medical community.

[Molecular analyses for (early) recognition of hematologic diseases - sense and sensibility for molecular analysis: the art of intelligent decision-making]

During the last 10 years several molecular markers have been established as useful tools among the armamentarium of a hematologist. As a consequence, the number of performed hematologic molecular analyses has immensely increased. Often, such tests replace or complement other laboratory methods. Molecular markers can be useful in many ways: they can serve for diagnostics, describe the prognostic profile, predict which types of drugs are indicated, and can be used for the therapeutic monitoring of the patient to indicate an adequate response or predict resistance or relapse of the disease. Many markers fulfill more than one of these aspects. Most important, however, is the right choice of analyses at the right time-points!

Identification of voting systems for the identification of preferences in public participation. Case Study: application of the Borda Count system for collective decision making at the Salonga National Park in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Abstract:The aim of this paper is to review the literature on voting systems based on Condorcet and Borda. We compared and classified them. Also we referred to some strengths and weaknesses of voting systems and finally in a case study, we made use of the Borda voting system for collective decision making in the Salonga National Park in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Resumen: el objetivo de este trabajo es hacer una revisión bibliográfica de los sistemas de votación basados en Condorcet y Borda. Se ha comparado y clasificado los mismos. Así mismo se ha hecho referencia a algunas debilidades y fortalezas de los sistemas de votación y por último en un caso de estudio, se ha hecho uso del sistema de votación de Borda para la toma de decisión colectiva en el Parque Nacional de Salonga en la República Democrática del Congo.

The database search problem: a question of rational decision making

This paper applies probability and decision theory in the graphical interface of an influence diagram to study the formal requirements of rationality which justify the individualization of a person found through a database search. The decision-theoretic part of the analysis studies the parameters that a rational decision maker would use to individualize the selected person. The modeling part (in the form of an influence diagram) clarifies the relationships between this decision and the ingredients that make up the database search problem, i.e., the results of the database search and the different pairs of propositions describing whether an individual is at the source of the crime stain. These analyses evaluate the desirability associated with the decision of 'individualizing' (and 'not individualizing'). They point out that this decision is a function of (i) the probability that the individual in question is, in fact, at the source of the crime stain (i.e., the state of nature), and (ii) the decision maker's preferences among the possible consequences of the decision (i.e., the decision maker's loss function). We discuss the relevance and argumentative implications of these insights with respect to recent comments in specialized literature, which suggest points of view that are opposed to the results of our study.

Collective decision making in a heterogeneous environment: Lasius niger colonies preferentially forage at easy to learn locations

Many ants forage in complex environments and use a combination of trail pheromone information and route memory to navigate between food sources and the nest. Previous research has shown that foraging routes differ in how easily they are learned. In particular, it is easier to learn feeding locations that are reached by repeating (e.g. left-left or right-right) than alternating choices (left-right or right-left) along a route with two T-bifurcations. This raises the hypothesis that the learnability of the feeding sites may influence overall colony foraging patterns. We studied this in the mass-recruiting ant Lasius niger. We used mazes with two T-bifurcations, and allowed colonies to exploit two equidistant food sources that differed in how easily their locations were learned. In experiment 1, learnability was manipulated by using repeating versus alternating routes from nest to feeder. In experiment 2, we added visual landmarks along the route to one food source. Our results suggest that colonies preferentially exploited the feeding site that was easier to learn. This was the case even if the more difficult to learn feeding site was discovered first. Furthermore, we show that these preferences were at least partly caused by lower error rates (experiment 1) and greater foraging speeds (experiment 2) of foragers visiting the more easily learned feeder locations. Our results indicate that the learnability of feeding sites is an important factor influencing collective foraging patterns of ant colonies under more natural conditions, given that in natural environments foragers often face multiple bifurcations on their way to food sources.

Feelings of women regarding end-of-life decision making after ultrasound diagnosis of a lethal fetal malformation

Objective: this study investigated the feelings of women regarding end-of-life decision making after ultrasound diagnosis of a lethal fetal malformation. The aim of this study was to present the decision making process of women that chose for pregnancy termination and to present selected speeches of women about their feelings. Design: open psychological interviews conducted by a psychologist immediately after the diagnosis of fetal malformation by ultrasound. Analysis of the results was performed through a content analysis technique. Setting: the study was carried out at a public university hospital in Brazil. Participants: 249 pregnant women who had received the diagnosis of a severe lethal fetal malformation. Findings: fetal anencephaly was the most frequent anomaly detected in 135 cases (54.3%). Termination of pregnancy was decided by 172 (69.1%) patients and legally authorised by the judiciary (66%). The reason for asking for termination was to reduce suffering in all of them. In the 77 women who chose not to terminate pregnancy (30.9%), the reasons were related to feelings of guilt (74%). Key conclusions: the results support the importance of psychological counselling for couples when lethal fetal malformation is diagnosed. The act of reviewing moral and cultural values and elements of the unconscious provides assurance in the decision-making process and mitigates the risk of emotional trauma and guilt that can continue long after the pregnancy is terminated. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Systematic Approach for the selection of monitoring technologies in CO2 geological storage projects. Application of multicriteria decision making

Geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) has been proposed as a viable means for reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Once injection begins, a program for measurement, monitoring, and verification (MMV) of CO2 distribution is required in order to: a) research key features, effects and processes needed for risk assessment; b) manage the injection process; c) delineate and identify leakage risk and surface escape; d) provide early warnings of failure near the reservoir; and f) verify storage for accounting and crediting. The selection of the methodology of monitoring (characterization of site and control and verification in the post-injection phase) is influenced by economic and technological variables. Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) refers to a methodology developed for making decisions in the presence of multiple criteria. MCDM as a discipline has only a relatively short history of 40 years, and it has been closely related to advancements on computer technology. Evaluation methods and multicriteria decisions include the selection of a set of feasible alternatives, the simultaneous optimization of several objective functions, and a decision-making process and evaluation procedures that must be rational and consistent. The application of a mathematical model of decision-making will help to find the best solution, establishing the mechanisms to facilitate the management of information generated by number of disciplines of knowledge. Those problems in which decision alternatives are finite are called Discrete Multicriteria Decision problems. Such problems are most common in reality and this case scenario will be applied in solving the problem of site selection for storing CO2. Discrete MCDM is used to assess and decide on issues that by nature or design support a finite number of alternative solutions. Recently, Multicriteria Decision Analysis has been applied to hierarchy policy incentives for CCS, to assess the role of CCS, and to select potential areas which could be suitable to store. For those reasons, MCDM have been considered in the monitoring phase of CO2 storage, in order to select suitable technologies which could be techno-economical viable. In this paper, we identify techniques of gas measurements in subsurface which are currently applying in the phase of characterization (pre-injection); MCDM will help decision-makers to hierarchy the most suitable technique which fit the purpose to monitor the specific physic-chemical parameter.

Greenfield shopping center development. The integration between environmental features, building design and investment analysis at the decision making stage

The Shopping centre is a long term investment in which Greenfield development decisions are often taken based on risks analysis regarding construction costs, location, competition, market and an expected DCF. Furthermore, integration between the building design, project planning, operational costs and investment analysis is not entirely considered by the investor at the decision making stage. The absence of such information tends to produce certain negative impacts on the future running costs and annual maintenance of the building, especially on energy demand and other occupancy expenses paid by the tenants to the landlord. From the investor´s point of view, this blind spot in strategy development will possibly decrease their profit margin as changes in the occupancy expenses[ ] have a direct outcome on the profit margin. In order to try to reduce some higher operating cost components such as energy use and other utility savings as well as their CO2 emissions, quite a few income properties worldwide have some type of environmental label such as BREEAM and LEED. The drawback identified in this labelling is that usually the investments required to get an ecolabel are high and the investor finds no direct evidence that it increases market value. However there is research on certified commercial properties (especially offices) that shows better performance in terms of occupancy rate and rental cost (Warren-Myers, 2012). Additionally, Sayce (2013) says that the certification only provides a quick reference point i.e. the lack of a certificate does not indicate that a building is not sustainable or efficient. Based on the issues described above, this research compares important components of the development stages such as investments costs, concept/ strategy development as well as the current investor income and property value. The subjects for this analysis are a shopping centre designed with passive cooling/bioclimatic strategies evaluated at the decision making stage, a certified regional shopping centre and a non-certified standard regional shopping centre. Moreover, the proposal intends to provide decision makers with some tools for linking green design features to the investment analysis in order to optimize the decision making process when looking into cost savings and design quality.