The integrated WRF/urban modelling system: development, evaluation, and applications to urban environmental problems

To bridge the gaps between traditional mesoscale modelling and microscale modelling, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, in collaboration with other agencies and research groups, has developed an integrated urban modelling system coupled to the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model as a community tool to address urban environmental issues. The core of this WRF/urban modelling system consists of the following: (1) three methods with different degrees of freedom to parameterize urban surface processes, ranging from a simple bulk parameterization to a sophisticated multi-layer urban canopy model with an indoor–outdoor exchange sub-model that directly interacts with the atmospheric boundary layer, (2) coupling to fine-scale computational fluid dynamic Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes and Large-Eddy simulation models for transport and dispersion (T&D) applications, (3) procedures to incorporate high-resolution urban land use, building morphology, and anthropogenic heating data using the National Urban Database and Access Portal Tool (NUDAPT), and (4) an urbanized high-resolution land data assimilation system. This paper provides an overview of this modelling system; addresses the daunting challenges of initializing the coupled WRF/urban model and of specifying the potentially vast number of parameters required to execute the WRF/urban model; explores the model sensitivity to these urban parameters; and evaluates the ability of WRF/urban to capture urban heat islands, complex boundary-layer structures aloft, and urban plume T&D for several major metropolitan regions. Recent applications of this modelling system illustrate its promising utility, as a regional climate-modelling tool, to investigate impacts of future urbanization on regional meteorological conditions and on air quality under future climate change scenarios. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Environmental controls on the distribution and diversity of lentic Chironomidae (Insecta: Diptera) across an altitudinal gradient in tropical South America

To predict the response of aquatic ecosystems to future global climate change, data on the ecology and distribution of keystone groups in freshwater ecosystems are needed. In contrast to mid- and high-latitude zones, such data are scarce across tropical South America (Neotropics). We present the distribution and diversity of chironomid species using surface sediments of 59 lakes from the Andes to the Amazon (0.1–17°S and 64–78°W) within the Neotropics. We assess the spatial variation in community assemblages and identify the key variables influencing the distributional patterns. The relationships between environmental variables (pH, conductivity, depth, and sediment organic content), climatic data, and chironomid assemblages were assessed using multivariate statistics (detrended correspondence analysis and canonical correspondence analysis). Climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) were most significant in describing the variance in chironomid assemblages. Temperature and precipitation are both predicted to change under future climate change scenarios in the tropical Andes. Our findings suggest taxa of Orthocladiinae, which show a preference to cold high-elevation oligotrophic lakes, will likely see range contraction under future anthropogenic-induced climate change. Taxa abundant in areas of high precipitation, such as Micropsectra and Phaenopsectra, will likely become restricted to the inner tropical Andes, as the outer tropical Andes become drier. The sensitivity of chironomids to climate parameters makes them important bio-indicators of regional climate change in the Neotropics. Furthermore, the distribution of chironomid taxa presented here is a vital first step toward providing urgently needed autecological data for interpreting fossil chironomid records of past ecological and climate change from the tropical Andes.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Jamaica

Climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon in which the earth‘s climate goes through cycles of warming and cooling; these changes usually take place incrementally over millennia. Over the past century, there has been an anomalous increase in global temperature, giving rise to accelerated climate change. It is widely accepted that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as industries have contributed significantly to the increase in global temperatures. The existence and survival of all living organisms is predicated on the ability of the environment in which they live not only to provide conditions for their basic needs but also conditions suitable for growth and reproduction. Unabated climate change threatens the existence of biophysical and ecological systems on a planetary scale. The present study aims to examine the economic impact of climate change on health in Jamaica over the period 2011-2050. To this end, three disease conditions with known climate sensitivity and importance to Jamaican public health were modelled. These were: dengue fever, leptospirosis and gastroenteritis in children under age 5. Historical prevalence data on these diseases were obtained from the Ministry of Health Jamaica, the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre, the Climate Studies Group Mona, University of the West Indies Mona campus, and the Meteorological Service of Jamaica. Data obtained spanned a twelve-year period of 1995-2007. Monthly data were obtained for dengue and gastroenteritis, while for leptospirosis, the annual number of cases for 1995-2005 was utilized. The two SRES emission scenarios chosen were A2 and B2 using the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM) global climate model to predict climate variables for these scenarios. A business as usual (BAU) scenario was developed using historical disease data for the period 2000-2009 (dengue fever and gastroenteritis) and 1995-2005 (leptospirosis) as the reference decades for the respective diseases. The BAU scenario examined the occurrence of the diseases in the absence of climate change. It assumed that the disease trend would remain unchanged over the projected period and the number of cases of disease for each decade would be the same as the reference decade. The model used in the present study utilized predictive empirical statistical modelling to extrapolate the climate/disease relationship in time, to estimate the number of climate change-related cases under future climate change scenarios. The study used a Poisson regression model that considered seasonality and lag effects to determine the best-fit model in relation to the diseases under consideration. Zhang and others (2008), in their review of climate change and the transmission of vector-borne diseases, found that: ―Besides climatic variables, few of them have included other factors that can affect the transmission of vector-borne disease….‖ (Zhang 2008) Water, sanitation and health expenditure are key determinants of health. In the draft of the second communication to IPCC, Jamaica noted the vulnerability of public health to climate change, including sanitation and access to water (MSJ/UNDP, 2009). Sanitation, which in its broadest context includes the removal of waste (excreta, solid, or other hazardous waste), is a predictor of vector-borne diseases (e.g. dengue fever), diarrhoeal diseases (such as gastroenteritis) and zoonoses (such as leptospirosis). In conceptualizing the model, an attempt was made to include non-climate predictors of these climate-sensitive diseases. The importance of sanitation and water access to the control of dengue, gastroenteritis and leptospirosis were included in the Poisson regression model. The Poisson regression model obtained was then used to predict the number of disease cases into the future (2011-2050) for each emission scenario. After projecting the number of cases, the cost associated with each scenario was calculated using four cost components. 1. Treatment cost morbidity estimate. The treatment cost for the number of cases was calculated using reference values found in the literature for each condition. The figures were derived from studies of the cost of treatment and represent ambulatory and non-fatal hospitalized care for dengue fever and gastroenteritis. Due to the paucity of published literature on the health care cost associated with leptospirosis, only the cost of diagnosis and antibiotic therapy were included in the calculation. 2. Mortality estimates. Mortality estimates are recorded as case fatality rates. Where local data were available, these were utilized. Where these were unavailable, appropriate reference values from the literature were used. 3. Productivity loss. Productivity loss was calculated using a human capital approach, by multiplying the expected number of productive days lost by the caregiver and/or the infected person, by GDP per capita per day (US$ 14) at 2008 GDP using 2008 US$ exchange rates. 4. No-option cost. The no-option cost refers to adaptation strategies for the control of dengue fever which are ongoing and already a part of the core functions of the Vector Control Division of the Ministry of Health, Jamaica. An estimated US$ 2.1 million is utilized each year in conducting activities to prevent the post-hurricane spread of vector borne diseases and diarrhoea. The cost includes public education, fogging, laboratory support, larvicidal activities and surveillance. This no-option cost was converted to per capita estimates, using population estimates for Jamaica up to 2050 obtained from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN, 2006) and the assumption of one expected major hurricane per decade. During the decade 2000-2009, Jamaica had an average inflation of 10.4% (CIA Fact book, last updated May 2011). This average decadal inflation rate was applied to the no-option cost, which was inflated by 10% for each successive decade to adjust for changes in inflation over time.

Análise crítica de aspectos de modelagem matemática no planejamento da expansão a longo prazo de sistemas de transmissão

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Boosted objects and jet substructure at the LHC. Report of BOOST2012, held at IFIC Valencia, 23rd-27th of July 2012

This report of the BOOST2012 workshop presents the results of four working groups that studied key aspects of jet substructure. We discuss the potential of first-principle QCD calculations to yield a precise description of the substructure of jets and study the accuracy of state-of-the-art Monte Carlo tools. Limitations of the experiments' ability to resolve substructure are evaluated, with a focus on the impact of additional (pile-up) proton proton collisions on jet substructure performance in future LHC operating scenarios. A final section summarizes the lessons learnt from jet substructure analyses in searches for new physics in the production of boosted top quarks.

Legal Ontologies for Public Procurement Management

The thesis explores ways to formalize the legal knowledge concerning the public procurement domain by means of ontological patterns suitable, on one hand, to support awarding authorities in conducting procurement procedures and, on the other hand, to help citizens and economic operators in accessing procurement's notices and data. Such an investigation on the making up of conceptual models for the public procurement domain, in turn, inspires and motivates a reflection on the role of legal ontologies nowadays, as in the past, retracing the steps of the ``ontological legal thinking'' from Roman Law up to now. I try, at the same time, to forecast the impact, in terms of benefits, challenges and critical issues, of the application of computational models of Law in future e-Governance scenarios.

Response of Microcystis aeruginosa PCC 7806 to different CO2 concentrations

Future climatic change scenarios predict rising of the atmospheric CO2 levels which could favor the proliferation of some harmful bloom-forming cyanobacteria as Microcystis aeruginosa. In the present study, the response of M. aeruginosa strain PCC 7806 to two different partial pressure of CO2 was tested. Sandrini et al. (2013) recently found that several, but not all, M. aeruginosa strains lack the SbtA or BicA HCO3- uptake system genes; the contribution of different Ci transporters to photosynthesis and the difference between low and high affinity activated Ci uptake state were investigated. M. aeruginosa PCC 7806 was cultured in four chemostats containing modified BG11 medium with 10 mM NaNO3 and no presence of NaCl, NaHCO3, Na2CO3 and additional buffers. A wide variety of analysis on samples collected from continuous cultures – such as A750, medium composition, cellular composition, cell counting, mini-PAM, measurements with the O2 optode, Aminco, 77K fluorescence emission spectra – was carried out. Data analysis results showed that the increased CO2 concentration has a big effect on M. aeruginosa PCC 7806. Experiments were performed using the Oxy-4 O2 optode apparatus in order to measure the photosynthetic O2 evolution of samples taken from both batch and chemostat cultures. At low bicarbonate concentration, an evident inhibition of Na+-dependent HCO3- transporter BicA by LiCl at 25 mM was observed. The consequent addition of 25 mM NaCl was able to counteract the Li+ effect at pH 8.0 but not at pH 10.0. In the latter case, only the addition of a higher amount of HCO3- led to photosynthetic O2 evolution suggesting the important role of the BicA transporter. However, further studies are needed to better explain the results obtained as high pH levels might have an influence on the transport systems, altering the mechanism of pH regulation and the functioning of Na+/H+ antiporter systems.

Comparative phylogeography of two co-distributed arctic-alpine freshwater insect species in Europe

The distribution pattern of European arctic-alpine disjunct species is of growing interest among biogeographers due to the arising variety of inferred demographic histories. In this thesis I used the co-distributed mayfly Ameletus inopinatus and the stonefly Arcynopteryx compacta as model species to investigate the European Pleistocene and Holocene history of stream-inhabiting arctic-alpine aquatic insects. I used last glacial maximum (LGM) species distribution models (SDM) to derive hypotheses on the glacial survival during the LGM and the recolonization of Fennoscandia: 1) both species potentially survived glacial cycles in periglacial, extra Mediterranean refugia, and 2) postglacial recolonization of Fennoscandia originated from these refugia. I tested these hypotheses using mitochondrial sequence (mtCOI) and species specific microsatellite data. Additionally, I used future SDM to predict the impact of climate change induced range shifts and habitat loss on the overall genetic diversity of the endangered mayfly A. inopinatus.rnI observed old lineages, deep splits, and almost complete lineage sorting of mtCOI sequences between mountain ranges. These results support the hypothesis that both species persisted in multiple periglacial extra-Mediterranean refugia in Central Europe during the LGM. However, the recolonization of Fennoscandia was very different between the two study species. For the mayfly A. inopinatus I found strong differentiation between the Fennoscandian and all other populations in sequence and microsatellite data, indicating that Fennoscandia was recolonized from an extra European refugium. High mtCOI genetic structure within Fennoscandia supports a recolonization of multiple lineages from independent refugia. However, this structure was not apparent in the microsatellite data, consistent with secondary contact without sexual incompability. In contrast, the stonefly A. compacta exhibited low genetic structure and shared mtCOI haplotypes among Fennoscandia and the Black Forest, suggesting a shared Pleistocene refugium in the periglacial tundrabelt. Again, there is incongruence with the microsatellite data, which could be explained with ancestral polymorphism or female-biased dispersal. Future SDM projects major regional habitat loss for the mayfly A. inopinatus, particularly in Central European mountain ranges. By relating these range shifts to my population genetic results, I identified conservation units primarily in Eastern Europe, that if preserved would maintain high levels of the present-day genetic diversity of A. inopinatus and continue to provide long-term suitable habitat under future climate warming scenarios.rnIn this thesis I show that despite similar present day distributions the underlying demographic histories of the study species are vastly different, which might be due to differing dispersal capabilities and niche plasticity. I present genetic, climatic, and ecological data that can be used to prioritize conservation efforts for cold-adapted freshwater insects in light of future climate change. Overall, this thesis provides a next step in filling the knowledge gap regarding molecular studies of the arctic-alpine invertebrate fauna. However, there is continued need to explore the phenomenon of arctic-alpine disjunctions to help understand the processes of range expansion, regression, and lineage diversification in Europe’s high latitude and high altitude biota.

Pequeñas localidades rurales, cambios globales y conocimiento local : Estudios comparados en América Latina

El presente artículo aborda los cambios en los espacios rurales de América Latina y los posibles escenarios futuros a través de estudios de caso desarrollados en el contexto del proyecto "Designing a methology to evaluate local knowlegde on global change and its role in the construction of future land use scenarios by local actors" IAI Institut for Global Change (director Jean Francois Tourrand, CIRAD). Este proyecto tiene un objetivo metodológico principal que consiste en elaborar, testear y validar una metodología para evaluar el conocimiento local sobre el cambio global y cómo se incorpora tal conocimiento en la construcción de escenarios futuros de uso de suelo. La complejidad del problema implica un abordaje interdisciplinario a través de la participación de investigadores de distintos países e instituciones y el desarrollo de trabajos de campo en distintos espacios rurales (1) En lo que respecta a la metodología elaborada, las experiencias permitieron avanzar en la precisión de las informaciones a recabar (factores de cambio, escenarios y condiciones) y fue enriquecedora la experiencia de los trabajos de campo en Uruguay, Brasil y Perú.

Pequeñas localidades rurales, cambios globales y conocimiento local : Estudios comparados en América Latina

El presente artículo aborda los cambios en los espacios rurales de América Latina y los posibles escenarios futuros a través de estudios de caso desarrollados en el contexto del proyecto "Designing a methology to evaluate local knowlegde on global change and its role in the construction of future land use scenarios by local actors" IAI Institut for Global Change (director Jean Francois Tourrand, CIRAD). Este proyecto tiene un objetivo metodológico principal que consiste en elaborar, testear y validar una metodología para evaluar el conocimiento local sobre el cambio global y cómo se incorpora tal conocimiento en la construcción de escenarios futuros de uso de suelo. La complejidad del problema implica un abordaje interdisciplinario a través de la participación de investigadores de distintos países e instituciones y el desarrollo de trabajos de campo en distintos espacios rurales (1) En lo que respecta a la metodología elaborada, las experiencias permitieron avanzar en la precisión de las informaciones a recabar (factores de cambio, escenarios y condiciones) y fue enriquecedora la experiencia de los trabajos de campo en Uruguay, Brasil y Perú.

Pequeñas localidades rurales, cambios globales y conocimiento local : Estudios comparados en América Latina

El presente artículo aborda los cambios en los espacios rurales de América Latina y los posibles escenarios futuros a través de estudios de caso desarrollados en el contexto del proyecto "Designing a methology to evaluate local knowlegde on global change and its role in the construction of future land use scenarios by local actors" IAI Institut for Global Change (director Jean Francois Tourrand, CIRAD). Este proyecto tiene un objetivo metodológico principal que consiste en elaborar, testear y validar una metodología para evaluar el conocimiento local sobre el cambio global y cómo se incorpora tal conocimiento en la construcción de escenarios futuros de uso de suelo. La complejidad del problema implica un abordaje interdisciplinario a través de la participación de investigadores de distintos países e instituciones y el desarrollo de trabajos de campo en distintos espacios rurales (1) En lo que respecta a la metodología elaborada, las experiencias permitieron avanzar en la precisión de las informaciones a recabar (factores de cambio, escenarios y condiciones) y fue enriquecedora la experiencia de los trabajos de campo en Uruguay, Brasil y Perú.

Seagrass biofilm communities at a naturally CO2-rich vent at Papua New Guinea

Seagrass meadows are a crucial component of tropical marine reef ecosystems. The seagrass plants are colonized by a multitude of epiphytic organisms that contribute to determining the ecological role of seagrasses. To better understand how environmental changes like ocean acidification might affect epiphytic assemblages, the microbial community composition of the epiphytic biofilm of Enhalus acroides was investigated at a natural CO2 vent in Papua New Guinea using molecular fingerprinting and next generation sequencing of 16S and 18S rRNA genes. Both bacterial and eukaryotic epiphytes formed distinct communities at the CO2-impacted site compared to the control site. This site-related CO2 effect was also visible in the succession pattern of microbial epiphytes. We further found an increased abundance of bacterial types associated with coral diseases at the CO2-impacted site (Fusobacteria, Thalassomonas) whereas eukaryotes such as certain crustose coralline algae commonly related to healthy reefs were less diverse. These trends in the epiphytic community of E. acroides suggest a potential role of seagrasses as vectors of coral pathogens and may support previous predictions of a decrease in reef health and prevalence of diseases under future ocean acidification scenarios.

Experimental data on photophysiology and growth rates of Pararotalia calcariformata

The eastern Mediterranean is a hotspot of biological invasions. Numerous species of Indo-pacific origin have colonized the Mediterranean in recent times, including tropical symbiont-bearing foraminifera. Among these is the species Pararotalia calcariformata. Unlike other invasive foraminifera, this species has been discovered only two decades ago and is restricted to the eastern Mediterranean coast. Combining ecological, genetic and physiological observations, we attempt to explain the recent invasion of this species in the Mediterranean Sea. Using morphological and genetic data, we confirm the species attribution to P. calcariformata McCulloch 1977 and identify its symbionts as a consortium of diatom species dominated by Minutocellus polymorphus. We document photosynthetic activity of its endosymbionts using Pulse Amplitude Modulated Fluorometry and test the effects of elevated temperatures on growth rates of asexual offspring. The culturing of asexual offspring for 120 days shows a 30-day period of rapid growth followed by a period of slower growth. A subsequent 48-day temperature sensitivity experiment indicates a similar developmental pathway and high growth rate at 28°C, whereas an almost complete inhibition of growth was observed at 20°C and 35°C. This indicates that the offspring of this species may have lower tolerance to cold temperatures than what would be expected for species native to the Mediterranean. We expand this hypothesis by applying a Species Distribution Model (SDM) based on modern occurrences in the Mediterranean using three environmental variables: irradiance, turbidity and yearly minimum temperature. The model reproduces the observed restricted distribution and indicates that the range of the species will drastically expand westwards under future global change scenarios. We conclude that P. calcariformata established a population in the Levant because of the recent warming in the region. In line with observations from other groups of organisms, our results indicate that continued warming of the eastern Mediterranean will facilitate the invasion of more tropical marine taxa into the Mediterranean, disturbing local biodiversity and ecosystem structure.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, calcification rate, oxygen production, maximum quantum yield, symbiont density, chlorophyll concentration and crystal width of Halimeda macroloba, Halimeda cylindracea and Marginopora vertebralis during experiments, 2011

The effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on photosynthesis and calcification in the calcifying algae Halimeda macroloba and Halimeda cylindracea and the symbiont-bearing benthic foraminifera Marginopora vertebralis were investigated through exposure to a combination of four temperatures (28°C, 30°C, 32°C, and 34°C) and four CO2 levels (39, 61, 101, and 203 Pa; pH 8.1, 7.9, 7.7, and 7.4, respectively). Elevated CO2 caused a profound decline in photosynthetic efficiency (FV : FM), calcification, and growth in all species. After five weeks at 34°C under all CO2 levels, all species died. Chlorophyll (Chl) a and b concentration in Halimeda spp. significantly decreased in 203 Pa, 32°C and 34°C treatments, but Chl a and Chl c2 concentration in M. vertebralis was not affected by temperature alone, with significant declines in the 61, 101, and 203 Pa treatments at 28°C. Significant decreases in FV : FM in all species were found after 5 weeks of exposure to elevated CO2 (203 Pa in all temperature treatments) and temperature (32°C and 34°C in all pH treatments). The rate of oxygen production declined at 61, 101, and 203 Pa in all temperature treatments for all species. The elevated CO2 and temperature treatments greatly reduced calcification (growth and crystal size) in M. vertebralis and, to a lesser extent, in Halimeda spp. These findings indicate that 32°C and 101 Pa CO2, are the upper limits for survival of these species on Heron Island reef, and we conclude that these species will be highly vulnerable to the predicted future climate change scenarios of elevated temperature and ocean acidification.

Differing responses of three Southern Ocean Emiliania huxleyi ecotypes to changing seawater carbonate chemistry

The invasion of anthropogenic carbon dioxide into the surface ocean is altering seawater carbonate speciation, a process commonly called ocean acidification. The high latitude waters of the Southern Ocean are one of the primary and most severely affected regions. Coccolithophores are an important phytoplankton group, responsible for the majority of pelagic calcium carbonate production in the world's oceans, with a distribution that ranges from tropical to polar waters. Emiliania huxleyi is numerically the most abundant coccolithophore species and appears in several different ecotypes. We tested the effects of ocean acidification on 3 carefully selected E. huxleyi ecotypes isolated from the Southern Ocean. Their responses were measured in terms of growth, photosynthesis, calcification, cellular geometry, and stoichiometry. The 3 ecotypes exhibited differing sensitivities in regards to seawater carbonate chemistry when cultured at the same temperature (14°C) and continuous light (110 µmol photons/m2/s). Under future ocean acidification scenarios, particulate inorganic to organic carbon ratios (PIC:POC) decreased by 38-44, 47-51 and 71-98% in morphotype A 'over-calcified' (A o/c), A and B/C, respectively. All ecotypes reduced their rate of calcification, but the cold-water adapted ecotype (morphotype B/C) was by far the most sensitive, and almost ceased calcification at partial pressure of carbon dioxide ( pCO2) levels above 1000 µatm. We recommend that future surveys for E. huxleyi cells in the Southern Ocean should include the capability of recognising 'naked cells' by molecular and microscopic tools. The distinct differences in the physiological responses of these 3 dominant Southern Ocean coccolithophore ecotypes are likely to have consequences for future coccolithophore community structures and thereby the Southern Ocean carbon cycle.