Developmental trajectories of body mass index in early childhood : an 8-year longitudinal study

Trajectoires développementales de l’IMC durant l’enfance: Une étude longitudinale sur 8 ans. Introduction : L’obésité infantile, origine de nombreux problèmes de santé, représente un grand défi en santé publique. Récemment, l’importance d’étudier l’évolution du surpoids durant l’enfance ainsi que les facteurs de risques précoces pour l’obésité a été reconnue. Les trajectoires développementales d’indice de masse corporelle (IMC) chez les jeunes représentent une approche innovatrice qui nous permet de mieux comprendre cette problématique importante. Objectifs: 1) Identifier des trajectoires développementales distinctes de groupes d’enfants selon leur IMC durant l’enfance, et 2) Explorer les facteurs de risques précoces qui prédisent l’appartenance de l’enfant à la trajectoire d’IMC le plus élevé Hypothèses: 1) On s’attend à retrouver un groupe d’enfants qui suit une trajectoire d’IMC élevée durant l’enfance. 2) On s’attend à ce que certaines caractéristiques de la mère (ex : tabac pendant la grossesse et IMC élevé), soient associées à l’appartenance de l’enfant au groupe ayant la trajectoire «IMC élevé ». Méthodes: Estimation des trajectoires développementales d’IMC d’enfants, dans un échantillon populationnel (n=1957) au Québec (ELDEQ). Les IMC ont été calculés à partir de données fournies par les mères des enfants et recueillis chaque année sur une durée de 8 ans. Des données propres à l’enfant sa mère, ainsi que socioéconomiques, ont étés recueillies. Une régression logistique multinomiale a été utilisée pour distinguer les enfants avec un IMC élevé des autres enfants, selon les facteurs de risques précoces. Les programmes PROC TRAJ (extension de SAS), SPSS (version 16), et SAS (version 9.1.3) ont été utilisés pour ces analyses. Résultats: Trois trajectoires d’IMC ont étés identifiées : IMC « bas-stable » (54,5%), IMC « modéré » (41,0%) et IMC « élevé et en hausse » (4,5%). Le groupe « élevé et en hausse » incluait des enfants pour qui l’IMC à 8 ans dépassait la valeur limite pour l’obésité. Les analyses de régression logistique ont révélé que deux facteurs de risques maternels étaient significativement associés avec la trajectoire “en hausse” par rapport aux deux autres groupes : le tabac durant la grossesse et le surpoids maternel. Conclusions: Des risques d’obésité infantile peuvent êtres identifiés dès la grossesse. Des études d’intervention sont requises pour identifier la possibilité de réduire le risque d’obésité chez l’enfant en ciblant le tabac et le surpoids maternelle durant la grossesse. Mots clés: Indice de masse corporelle (IMC), obésité infantile, trajectoires développementales de groupe, facteurs de risque précoce, étude populationnelle, tabac pendant la grossesse, obésité maternelle.

Four year efficacy of prophylactic human papillomavirus quadrivalent vaccine against low grade cervical, vulvar, and vaginal intraepithelial neoplasia and anogenital warts: randomised controlled trial

Objectives: To evaluate the prophylactic efficacy of the human papillomavirus (HPV) quadrivalent vaccine in preventing low grade cervical, vulvar, and vaginal intraepithelial neoplasias and anogenital warts (condyloma acuminata). Design: Data from two international, double blind, placebo controlled, randomised efficacy trials of quadrivalent HPV vaccine (protocol 013 (FUTURE I) and protocol 015 (FUTURE II)). The trials were to be 4 years in length, and the results reported are from final study data of 42 months' follow-up. Setting: Primary care centres and university or hospital associated health centres in 24 countries and territories around the world. Participants: 17 622 women aged 16-26 years enrolled between December 2001 and May 2003. Major exclusion criteria were lifetime number of sexual partners (>4), history of abnormal cervical smear test results, and pregnancy. Intervention: Three doses of quadrivalent HPV vaccine (for serotypes 6, 11, 16, and 18) or placebo at day 1, month 2, and month 6. Main outcome measures: Vaccine efficacy against cervical, vulvar, and vaginal intraepithelial neoplasia grade I and condyloma in a per protocol susceptible population that included subjects who received all three vaccine doses, tested negative for the relevant vaccine HPV types at day 1 and remained negative through month 7, and had no major protocol violations. Intention to treat, generally HPV naive, and unrestricted susceptible populations were also studied. Results: In the per protocol susceptible population, vaccine efficacy against lesions related to the HPV types in the vaccine was 96% for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade I (95% confidence interval 91% to 98%), 100% for both vulvar and vaginal intraepithelial neoplasia grade I (95% CIs 74% to 100%, 64% to 100% respectively), and 99% for condyloma (96% to 100%). Vaccine efficacy against any lesion (regardless of HPV type) in the generally naive population was 30% (17% to 41%), 75% (22% to 94%), and 48% (10% to 71%) for cervical, vulvar, and vaginal intraepithelial neoplasia grade I, respectively, and 83% (74% to 89%) for condyloma. Conclusions: Quadrivalent HPV vaccine provided sustained protection against low grade lesions attributable to vaccine HPV types (6, 11, 16, and 18) and a substantial reduction in the burden of these diseases through 42 months of follow-up. Trial registrations: NCT00092521 and NCT00092534.

Development and/or change of the notion of permanent object and operative causality: empirical evidence in the first year of life

This study examines the notion of permanent object during the first year of life, taking into account the controversy of two approaches about the nature of change: developmental change and cognitive change. Using a longitudinal/cross-sectional design, tasks adapted of the subscale of permanent object and operative causality of the Uzgiris-Hunt Scale (Uzgiris and Hunt, 1975) (Uzgiris & Hunt, 1975) were presented to 110 infants of 0, 3, 6 and 9 months-old, which reside in three cities of Colombia. The results showed three types of strategies: (a) Not resolution; (b) Exploratory and (c) Resolution, which follow different trajectories in children’s performance. This allows affirming that adaptive conquests of the cognitive development stay together with the variety of strategies. Using strategies reveals adjustments and transformations of action programs that consolidate the notion of permanent object not necessarily with age, but with self-regulatory processes. Empirical evidence contributes to the understanding of the relations between the emergence of novelty in the development and performance variability

Pregnancy in adolescents as a problem to 14 – 19 year olds in Nocaima (Cundinamarca)

Adolescent pregnancy is a current problem which raises concern due to its individual, familiar and collective consequences. Fifteen million adolescents give birth each year in the world. Abortion is the preferred option used in unwanted pregnancies. Adolescent pregnancy is frequent in Nocaima, Cundinamarca and is a community concern in this small town initiating its process of becoming a healthy municipality. As such, the community has highlighted this problem to be studied and submitted to intervention to promote a free and responsible sexuality decreasing unwanted adolescent pregnancies. Objective: To find data on contraception, pregnancy and related factors in selected adolescents therefore, improving current incomplete information. Methods: Descriptive observational study with survey application on 226 female 14 to 19 year old students from three high school facilities in Nocaima including 8th to 11th graders. Results: 88.9% of the participants were between 14 and 17 years of age. 66.8% of the adolescents claim to use correctly contraceptive methods and 28.8% have had sexual intercourse with an average initiation at age 15. 11.1% have been pregnant once in their lives and of these 57.1 % ended in induced abortion and 66.8% were school dropouts. Conclusions: After having implemented an educational campaign on healthy sex and reproductive behaviors we view adolescent pregnancy as a public health problem which is preventable and related to the deficit of social and family support as well as weakness in individual decision making.

Demonstrating the validity of three general scores of PET in predicting higher education achievement in Israel

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The use of three speech training aids by a profoundly deaf child

This paper reviews a study of an eleven year old profoundly deaf child and the use of a oscilloscope in speech therapy.

Effects of manure and fertilizer on grain yield, soil carbon and phosphorus in a 13-year field trial in semi-arid Kenya

Long-term indicators of soil fertility were assessed by measuring grain yield, soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil Olsen phosphorous for a P-deficient soil. In one set of treatments, goat manure was applied annually for 13 years at 0, 5 and 10 t ha(-1), and intercrops of sorghum/cowpea, millet/green gram and maize/pigeonpea were grown. Yield depended on rainfall and trends with time were not identifiable. Manure caused an upward trend in SOC, but 10 t ha(-1) manure did not give significantly more SOC than 5 t ha(-1). Only 10 t ha(-1) manure increased Olsen P. Measurements of both SOC and Olsen P are recommended. In another set of treatments, manure was applied for four years; the residual effect lasted another seven to eight years when assessed by yield, SOC and Olsen P Treatment with mineral fertilizers provided the same rates of N and P as 5 t hat manure and yields from manure and fertilizer were similar. Fertilizer increased Olsen P but not SOC. Management systems with occasional manure application and intermediate fertilizer applications should be assessed. Inputs and offtakes of C, N and P were measured for three years. Approximately 16, 25 and 11% of C, N and P respectively were stabilized into soil organic matter from 5 t ha(-1) a(-1) manure. The majority of organic P was fixed as soil inorganic P.

Nitrogen budgets for three cropping systems fertilised with cattle manure

A field plot experiment was set up on a sandy loam soil of SW England in order to determine the efficiency of nitrogen use from different cattle manures. The manure treatments were low and high dry matter cattle slurries and one farmyard manure applied at a target rate of 200 kg total Nha(-1) year(-1), and an untreated control. There were three different cropping systems: ryegrass/clover mixture, maize/rye and maize/bare soil, which were evaluated during 1998/99 and 1999/00. Measurements were made of N losses, N uptake and herbage DM yields. Result showed that manure type had a significant effect on N utilisation only for maize. N balances were negative in maize (approximately -247 to -10 kg N) compared to grass (approximately 5-158 kg N). Agronomic management was more important than manure type in influencing N losses, where soil cultivation appeared to be a key factor when comparing maize and grass systems. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Year to year variation in the small scale distribution of shuttle mosses

A detailed spore investigation of spore release and dispersal from an isolated colony of Phascum cuspidatum Hedw. indicated that approximately 98% of the spores originally present remained within the colony. The spatial distribution of colonies of P.cuspidatum and Pottia truncata (Hedw.) Fürer. in relation to those of the previous year was investigated by mapping the occurrence of colonies in five permanent quadrats for each species during two successive years. Phascum cuspidatum reoccurred in three quadrats during the second year, and P. truncata in only one, in the latter case apparently due to invasion by other mosses, principally Barbula hornschuchiana Schultz. A substantial proportion of the second year colonies overlapped in position with the first year colonies, particularly in P.cuspidatum. The results are discussed in relation to data on spore dispersal and other aspects of the life-history of these annual or short-lived shuttle mosses.

Computer modelling and estimation of recruitment patterns of non-branching coral colonies at three sites in Wakatobi Marine Park, S.E. Sulawesi, Indonesia; implications for coral reef conservation

We have studied growth and estimated recruitment of massive coral colonies at three sites, Kaledupa, Hoga and Sampela, separated by about 1.5 km in the Wakatobi Marine National Park, S.E. Sulawesi, Indonesia. There was significantly higher species richness (P<0.05), coral cover (P<0.05) and rugosity (P<0.01) at Kaledupa than at Sampela. A model for coral reef growth has been developed based on a rational polynomial function, where dx/dt is an index of coral growth with time; W is the variable (for example, coral weight, coral length or coral area), up to the power of n in the numerator and m in the denominator; a1……an and b1…bm are constants. The values for n and m represent the degree of the polynomial, and can relate to the morphology of the coral. The model was used to simulate typical coral growth curves, and tested using published data obtained by weighing coral colonies underwater in reefs on the south-west coast of Curaçao [‘Neth. J. Sea Res. 10 (1976) 285’]. The model proved an accurate fit to the data, and parameters were obtained for a number of coral species. Surface area data was obtained on over 1200 massive corals at three different sites in the Wakatobi Marine National Park, S.E. Sulawesi, Indonesia. The year of an individual's recruitment was calculated from knowledge of the growth rate modified by application of the rational polynomial model. The estimated pattern of recruitment was variable, with little numbers of massive corals settling and growing before 1950 at the heavily used site, Sampela, relative to the reef site with little or no human use, Kaledupa, and the intermediate site, Hoga. There was a significantly greater sedimentation rate at Sampela than at either Kaledupa (P<0.0001) or Hoga (P<0.0005). The relative mean abundance of fish families present at the reef crests at the three sites, determined using digital video photography, did not correlate with sedimentation rates, underwater visibility or lack of large non-branching coral colonies. Radial growth rates of three genera of non-branching corals were significantly lower at Sampela than at Kaledupa or at Hoga, and there was a high correlation (r=0.89) between radial growth rates and underwater visibility. Porites spp. was the most abundant coral over all the sites and at all depths followed by Favites (P<0.04) and Favia spp. (P<0.03). Colony ages of Porites corals were significantly lower at the 5 m reef flat on the Sampela reef than at the same depth on both other reefs (P<0.005). At Sampela, only 2.8% of corals on the 5 m reef crest are of a size to have survived from before 1950. The Scleractinian coral community of Sampela is severely impacted by depositing sediments which can lead to the suffocation of corals, whilst also decreasing light penetration resulting in decreased growth and calcification rates. The net loss of material from Sampela, if not checked, could result in the loss of this protective barrier which would be to the detriment of the sublittoral sand flats and hence the Sampela village.

Unusually high differential attenuation at C band: Results from a two-year analysis of the French Trappes polarimetric radar data

The differential phase (ΦDP) measured by polarimetric radars is recognized to be a very good indicator of the path integrated by rain. Moreover, if a linear relationship is assumed between the specific differential phase (KDP) and the specific attenuation (AH) and specific differential attenuation (ADP), then attenuation can easily be corrected. The coefficients of proportionality, γH and γDP, are, however, known to be dependent in rain upon drop temperature, drop shapes, drop size distribution, and the presence of large drops causing Mie scattering. In this paper, the authors extensively apply a physically based method, often referred to as the “Smyth and Illingworth constraint,” which uses the constraint that the value of the differential reflectivity ZDR on the far side of the storm should be low to retrieve the γDP coefficient. More than 30 convective episodes observed by the French operational C-band polarimetric Trappes radar during two summers (2005 and 2006) are used to document the variability of γDP with respect to the intrinsic three-dimensional characteristics of the attenuating cells. The Smyth and Illingworth constraint could be applied to only 20% of all attenuated rays of the 2-yr dataset so it cannot be considered the unique solution for attenuation correction in an operational setting but is useful for characterizing the properties of the strongly attenuating cells. The range of variation of γDP is shown to be extremely large, with minimal, maximal, and mean values being, respectively, equal to 0.01, 0.11, and 0.025 dB °−1. Coefficient γDP appears to be almost linearly correlated with the horizontal reflectivity (ZH), differential reflectivity (ZDR), and specific differential phase (KDP) and correlation coefficient (ρHV) of the attenuating cells. The temperature effect is negligible with respect to that of the microphysical properties of the attenuating cells. Unusually large values of γDP, above 0.06 dB °−1, often referred to as “hot spots,” are reported for 15%—a nonnegligible figure—of the rays presenting a significant total differential phase shift (ΔϕDP > 30°). The corresponding strongly attenuating cells are shown to have extremely high ZDR (above 4 dB) and ZH (above 55 dBZ), very low ρHV (below 0.94), and high KDP (above 4° km−1). Analysis of 4 yr of observed raindrop spectra does not reproduce such low values of ρHV, suggesting that (wet) ice is likely to be present in the precipitation medium and responsible for the attenuation and high phase shifts. Furthermore, if melting ice is responsible for the high phase shifts, this suggests that KDP may not be uniquely related to rainfall rate but can result from the presence of wet ice. This hypothesis is supported by the analysis of the vertical profiles of horizontal reflectivity and the values of conventional probability of hail indexes.

Multi-year droughts in Europe: analysis of development and causes

Whilst hydrological systems can show resilience to short-term streamflow deficiencies during within-year droughts, prolonged deficits during multi-year droughts are a significant threat to water resources security in Europe. This study uses a threshold-based objective classification of regional hydrological drought to qualitatively examine the characteristics, spatio-temporal evolution and synoptic climatic drivers of multi-year drought events in 1962–64, 1975–76 and 1995–97, on a European scale but with particular focus on the UK. Whilst all three events are multi-year, pan-European phenomena, their development and causes can be contrasted. The critical factor in explaining the unprecedented severity of the 1975–76 event is the consecutive occurrence of winter and summer drought. In contrast, 1962–64 was a succession of dry winters, mitigated by quiescent summers, whilst 1995–97 lacked spatial coherence and was interrupted by wet interludes. Synoptic climatic conditions vary within and between multi-year droughts, suggesting that regional factors modulate the climate signal in streamflow drought occurrence. Despite being underpinned by qualitatively similar climatic conditions and commonalities in evolution and characteristics, each of the three droughts has a unique spatio-temporal signature. An improved understanding of the spatio-temporal evolution and characteristics of multi-year droughts has much to contribute to monitoring and forecasting capability, and to improved mitigation strategies.

A twenty-year independent record of sea surface temperature for climate from Along-track Scanning Radiometers

A new record of sea surface temperature (SST) for climate applications is described. This record provides independent corroboration of global variations estimated from SST measurements made in situ. Infrared imagery from Along-Track Scanning Radiometers (ATSRs) is used to create a 20 year time series of SST at 0.1° latitude-longitude resolution, in the ATSR Reprocessing for Climate (ARC) project. A very high degree of independence of in situ measurements is achieved via physics-based techniques. Skin SST and SST estimated for 20 cm depth are provided, with grid cell uncertainty estimates. Comparison with in situ data sets establishes that ARC SSTs generally have bias of order 0.1 K or smaller. The precision of the ARC SSTs is 0.14 K during 2003 to 2009, from three-way error analysis. Over the period 1994 to 2010, ARC SSTs are stable, with better than 95% confidence, to within 0.005 K yr−1(demonstrated for tropical regions). The data set appears useful for cleanly quantifying interannual variability in SST and major SST anomalies. The ARC SST global anomaly time series is compared to the in situ-based Hadley Centre SST data set version 3 (HadSST3). Within known uncertainties in bias adjustments applied to in situ measurements, the independent ARC record and HadSST3 present the same variations in global marine temperature since 1996. Since the in situ observing system evolved significantly in its mix of measurement platforms and techniques over this period, ARC SSTs provide an important corroboration that HadSST3 accurately represents recent variability and change in this essential climate variable.

Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

Aim  Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location  Europe. Methods  We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000 yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results  Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions  The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.

Twenty-three cycles of changing open solar magnetic flux

This paper presents a comparison of various estimates of the open solar flux, deduced from measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field, from the aa geomagnetic index and from photospheric magnetic field observations. The first two of these estimates are made using the Ulysses discovery that the radial heliospheric field is approximately independent of heliographic latitude, the third makes use of the potential-field source surface method to map the total flux through the photosphere to the open flux at the top of the corona. The uncertainties associated with using the Ulysses result are 5%, but the effects of the assumptions of the potential field source surface method are harder to evaluate. Nevertheless, the three methods give similar results for the last three solar cycles when the data sets overlap. In 11-year running means, all three methods reveal that 1987 marked a significant peak in the long-term variation of the open solar flux. This peak is close to the solar minimum between sunspot cycles 21 and 22, and consequently the mean open flux (averaged from minimum to minimum) is similar for these two cycles. However, this similarity between cycles 21 and 22 in no way implies that the open flux is constant. The long-term variation shows that these cycles are fundamentally different in that the average open flux was rising during cycle 21 (from consistently lower values in cycle 20 and toward the peak in 1987) but was falling during cycle 22 (toward consistently lower values in cycle 23). The estimates from the geomagnetic aa index are unique as they extend from 1842 onwards (using the Helsinki extension). This variation gives strong anticorrelations, with very high statistical significance levels, with cosmic ray fluxes and with the abundances of the cosmogenic isotopes that they produce. Thus observations of photospheric magnetic fields, of cosmic ray fluxes, and of cosmogenic isotope abundances all support the long-term drifts in open solar flux reported by Lockwood et al. [1999a, 1999b].