Tree height integrated into pantropical forest biomass estimates

Aboveground tropical tree biomass and carbon storage estimates commonly ignore tree height (H). We estimate the effect of incorporating H on tropics-wide forest biomass estimates in 327 plots across four continents using 42 656 H and diameter measurements and harvested trees from 20 sites to answer the following questions: 1. What is the best H-model form and geographic unit to include in biomass models to minimise site-level uncertainty in estimates of destructive biomass? 2. To what extent does including H estimates derived in (1) reduce uncertainty in biomass estimates across all 327 plots? 3. What effect does accounting for H have on plot- and continental-scale forest biomass estimates? The mean relative error in biomass estimates of destructively harvested trees when including H (mean 0.06), was half that when excluding H (mean 0.13). Power- and Weibull-H models provided the greatest reduction in uncertainty, with regional Weibull-H models preferred because they reduce uncertainty in smaller-diameter classes (< 40 cm D) that store about one-third of biomass per hectare in most forests. Propagating the relationships from destructively harvested tree biomass to each of the 327 plots from across the tropics shows that including H reduces errors from 41.8 Mg ha(-1) (range 6.6 to 112.4) to 8.0 Mg ha(-1) (-2.5 to 23.0).

A Bayesian analysis of the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson cure rate model

The purpose of this paper is to develop a Bayesian analysis for the right-censored survival data when immune or cured individuals may be present in the population from which the data is taken. In our approach the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution which generalizes the Poisson distribution. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to develop a Bayesian procedure for the proposed model. Also, some discussions on the model selection and an illustration with a real data set are considered.

Subcritical crack growth and in vitro lifetime prediction of resin composites with different filler distributions

Objectives. Verify the influence of different filler distributions on the subcritical crack growth (SCG) susceptibility, Weibull parameters (m and sigma(0)) and longevity estimated by the strength-probability-time (SPT) diagram of experimental resin composites. Methods. Four composites were prepared, each one containing 59 vol% of glass powder with different filler sizes (d(50) = 0.5; 0.9; 1.2 and 1.9 mu m) and distributions. Granulometric analyses of glass powders were done by a laser diffraction particle size analyzer (Sald-7001, Shimadzu, USA). SCG parameters (n and sigma(f0)) were determined by dynamic fatigue (10(-2) to 10(2) MPa/s) using a biaxial flexural device (12 x 1.2 mm; n = 10). Twenty extra specimens of each composite were tested at 10(0) MPa/s to determine m and sigma(0). Specimens were stored in water at 37 degrees C for 24 h. Fracture surfaces were analyzed under SEM. Results. In general, the composites with broader filler distribution (C0.5 and C1.9) presented better results in terms of SCG susceptibility and longevity. C0.5 and C1.9 presented higher n values (respectively, 31.2 +/- 6.2(a) and 34.7 +/- 7.4(a)). C1.2 (166.42 +/- 0.01(a)) showed the highest and C0.5 (158.40 +/- 0.02(d)) the lowest sigma(f0) value (in MPa). Weibull parameters did not vary significantly (m: 6.6 to 10.6 and sigma(0): 170.6 to 176.4 MPa). Predicted reductions in failure stress (P-f = 5%) for a lifetime of 10 years were approximately 45% for C0.5 and C1.9 and 65% for C0.9 and C1.2. Crack propagation occurred through the polymeric matrix around the fillers and all the fracture surfaces showed brittle fracture features. Significance. Composites with broader granulometric distribution showed higher resistance to SCG and, consequently, higher longevity in vitro. (C) 2012 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The new class of Kummer beta generalized distributions

Ng and Kotz (1995) introduced a distribution that provides greater flexibility to extremes. We define and study a new class of distributions called the Kummer beta generalized family to extend the normal, Weibull, gamma and Gumbel distributions, among several other well-known distributions. Some special models are discussed. The ordinary moments of any distribution in the new family can be expressed as linear functions of probability weighted moments of the baseline distribution. We examine the asymptotic distributions of the extreme values. We derive the density function of the order statistics, mean absolute deviations and entropies. We use maximum likelihood estimation to fit the distributions in the new class and illustrate its potentiality with an application to a real data set.

A new long-term lifetime distribution induced by a latent complementary risk framework

In this paper, we proposed a new three-parameter long-term lifetime distribution induced by a latent complementary risk framework with decreasing, increasing and unimodal hazard function, the long-term complementary exponential geometric distribution. The new distribution arises from latent competing risk scenarios, where the lifetime associated scenario, with a particular risk, is not observable, rather we observe only the maximum lifetime value among all risks, and the presence of long-term survival. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including its probability density function and explicit algebraic formulas for its reliability, hazard and quantile functions and order statistics. The parameter estimation is based on the usual maximum-likelihood approach. A simulation study assesses the performance of the estimation procedure. We compare the new distribution with its particular cases, as well as with the long-term Weibull distribution on three real data sets, observing its potential and competitiveness in comparison with some usual long-term lifetime distributions.

The McDonald inverted beta distribution

We introduce a five-parameter continuous model, called the McDonald inverted beta distribution, to extend the two-parameter inverted beta distribution and provide new four- and three-parameter sub-models. We give a mathematical treatment of the new distribution including expansions for the density function, moments, generating and quantile functions, mean deviations, entropy and reliability. The model parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood and the observed information matrix is derived. An application of the new model to real data shows that it can give consistently a better fit than other important lifetime models. (C) 2012 The Franklin Institute. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

General results for the Kumaraswamy-G distribution

For any continuous baseline G distribution [G. M. Cordeiro and M. de Castro, A new family of generalized distributions, J. Statist. Comput. Simul. 81 (2011), pp. 883-898], proposed a new generalized distribution (denoted here with the prefix 'Kw-G'(Kumaraswamy-G)) with two extra positive parameters. They studied some of its mathematical properties and presented special sub-models. We derive a simple representation for the Kw-Gdensity function as a linear combination of exponentiated-G distributions. Some new distributions are proposed as sub-models of this family, for example, the Kw-Chen [Z.A. Chen, A new two-parameter lifetime distribution with bathtub shape or increasing failure rate function, Statist. Probab. Lett. 49 (2000), pp. 155-161], Kw-XTG [M. Xie, Y. Tang, and T.N. Goh, A modified Weibull extension with bathtub failure rate function, Reliab. Eng. System Safety 76 (2002), pp. 279-285] and Kw-Flexible Weibull [M. Bebbington, C. D. Lai, and R. Zitikis, A flexible Weibull extension, Reliab. Eng. System Safety 92 (2007), pp. 719-726]. New properties of the Kw-G distribution are derived which include asymptotes, shapes, moments, moment generating function, mean deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, reliability, Renyi entropy and Shannon entropy. New properties of the order statistics are investigated. We discuss the estimation of the parameters by maximum likelihood. We provide two applications to real data sets and discuss a bivariate extension of the Kw-G distribution.

Generalized beta-generated distributions

This article introduces generalized beta-generated (GBG) distributions. Sub-models include all classical beta-generated, Kumaraswamy-generated and exponentiated distributions. They are maximum entropy distributions under three intuitive conditions, which show that the classical beta generator skewness parameters only control tail entropy and an additional shape parameter is needed to add entropy to the centre of the parent distribution. This parameter controls skewness without necessarily differentiating tail weights. The GBG class also has tractable properties: we present various expansions for moments, generating function and quantiles. The model parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood and the usefulness of the new class is illustrated by means of some real data sets. (c) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Height-diameter relationships of tropical Atlantic moist forest trees in southeastern Brazil

Site-specific height-diameter models may be used to improve biomass estimates for forest inventories where only diameter at breast height (DBH) measurements are available. In this study, we fit height-diameter models for vegetation types of a tropical Atlantic forest using field measurements of height across plots along an altitudinal gradient. To fit height-diameter models, we sampled trees by DBH class and measured tree height within 13 one-hectare permanent plots established at four altitude classes. To select the best model we tested the performance of 11 height-diameter models using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The Weibull and Chapman-Richards height-diameter models performed better than other models, and regional site-specific models performed better than the general model. In addition, there is a slight variation of height-diameter relationships across the altitudinal gradient and an extensive difference in the stature between the Atlantic and Amazon forests. The results showed the effect of altitude on tree height estimates and emphasize the need for altitude-specific models that produce more accurate results than a general model that encompasses all altitudes. To improve biomass estimation, the development of regional height-diameter models that estimate tree height using a subset of randomly sampled trees presents an approach to supplement surveys where only diameter has been measured.

The log-exponentiated generalized gamma regression model for censored data

For the first time, we introduce a generalized form of the exponentiated generalized gamma distribution [Cordeiro et al. The exponentiated generalized gamma distribution with application to lifetime data, J. Statist. Comput. Simul. 81 (2011), pp. 827-842.] that is the baseline for the log-exponentiated generalized gamma regression model. The new distribution can accommodate increasing, decreasing, bathtub- and unimodal-shaped hazard functions. A second advantage is that it includes classical distributions reported in the lifetime literature as special cases. We obtain explicit expressions for the moments of the baseline distribution of the new regression model. The proposed model can be applied to censored data since it includes as sub-models several widely known regression models. It therefore can be used more effectively in the analysis of survival data. We obtain maximum likelihood estimates for the model parameters by considering censored data. We show that our extended regression model is very useful by means of two applications to real data.

The McDonald extended distribution: properties and applications

We study a five-parameter lifetime distribution called the McDonald extended exponential model to generalize the exponential, generalized exponential, Kumaraswamy exponential and beta exponential distributions, among others. We obtain explicit expressions for the moments and incomplete moments, quantile and generating functions, mean deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves and Gini concentration index. The method of maximum likelihood and a Bayesian procedure are adopted for estimating the model parameters. The applicability of the new model is illustrated by means of a real data set.

Microencapsulation of Ketoprofen in Blends of Acrylic Resins by Spray Drying

Microparticles of ketoprofen entrapped in blends of acrylic resins (Eudragit RL 30D and RS 30D) were successfully produced by spray drying. The effects of the proportion ketoprofen : polymer (1: 1 and 1: 3) and of spray-drying parameters (drying gas inlet temperatures of 80 and 100 degrees C; microencapsulating composition feed flow rates of 4 and 6 g/min) on the microparticles properties (drug content, encapsulation efficiency, mean particle size, moisture content, and dissolution behavior) were evaluated. Differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) thermograms and X-ray diffractograms of the spray-dried product, the free drug, and the physical mixture between the free drug and spray-dried composition (blank) were carried out. Microparticles obtained at inlet temperature of 80 degrees C, feed flow rate of 4 g/min, and ketoprofen : acrylic resin ratio of 1: 3 presented an encapsulation efficiency of 88.1%, moisture content of 5.8%, production yield around 50%, and a higher reduction in dissolution rate of the entrapped ketoprofen. Sigmoidal shape dissolution profiles were presented by the spray-dried microparticles. The dissolution profiles were relatively well described by the Weibull model, a showing high coefficient of determination, R-2, and a mean absolute error between experimental and estimated values of between 4.6 and 10.1%.

Fatigue Reliability of 3 Single-Unit Implant-Abutment Designs

Objectives: Because the mechanical behavior of the implant-abutment system is critical for the longevity of implant-supported reconstructions, this study evaluated the fatigue reliability of different implant-abutment systems used as single-unit crowns and their failure modes. Methods and Materials: Sixty-three Ti-6Al-4V implants were divided in 3 groups: Replace Select (RS); IC-IMP Osseotite; and Unitite were restored with their respective abutments. Anatomically correct central incisor metal crowns were cemented and subjected to separate single load to failure tests and step-stress accelerated life testing (n = 18). A master Weibull curve and reliability for a mission of 50,000 cycles at 200 N were calculated. Polarized-light and scanning electron microscopes were used for failure analyses. Results: The load at failure mean values during step-stress accelerated life testing were 348.14 N for RS, 324.07 N for Osseotite, and 321.29 N for the Unitite systems. No differences in reliability levels were detected between systems, and only the RS system mechanical failures were shown to be accelerated by damage accumulation. Failure modes differed between systems. Conclusions: The 3 evaluated systems did not present significantly different reliability; however, failure modes were different. (Implant Dent 2012;21:67-71)

Tecniche MonteCarlo per l'analisi di sistemi a rete

The assessment of the RAMS (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Safety) performances of system generally includes the evaluations of the “Importance” of its components and/or of the basic parameters of the model through the use of the Importance Measures. The analytical equations proposed in this study allow the estimation of the first order Differential Importance Measure on the basis of the Birnbaum measures of components, under the hypothesis of uniform percentage changes of parameters. The aging phenomena are introduced into the model by assuming exponential-linear or Weibull distributions for the failure probabilities. An algorithm based on a combination of MonteCarlo simulation and Cellular Automata is applied in order to evaluate the performance of a networked system, made up of source nodes, user nodes and directed edges subjected to failure and repair. Importance Sampling techniques are used for the estimation of the first and total order Differential Importance Measures through only one simulation of the system “operational life”. All the output variables are computed contemporaneously on the basis of the same sequence of the involved components, event types (failure or repair) and transition times. The failure/repair probabilities are forced to be the same for all components; the transition times are sampled from the unbiased probability distributions or it can be also forced, for instance, by assuring the occurrence of at least a failure within the system operational life. The algorithm allows considering different types of maintenance actions: corrective maintenance that can be performed either immediately upon the component failure or upon finding that the component has failed for hidden failures that are not detected until an inspection; and preventive maintenance, that can be performed upon a fixed interval. It is possible to use a restoration factor to determine the age of the component after a repair or any other maintenance action.

Strategie manutentive e gestione del magazzino, un'applicazione aeronautica

Il presente documento intende illustrare l’applicazione delle moderne teorie dell’affidabilità, delle politiche manutentive e della gestione dei ricambi in ambito aeronautico. Partendo dall’utilizzo di dati forniti da un’azienda operante nel settore è stato elaborato uno studio sperimentale con lo scopo di ricercare la miglior politica manutentiva, con l'obiettivo di minimizzare i costi di manutenzione e di gestione delle scorte a magazzino. La ricerca dell’ottimizzazione dei costi di gestione, senza penalizzare qualità ed efficienza, rappresenta infatti sempre di più un fattore competitivo per le aziende. Lo sviluppo sperimentale si è svolto tramite software specialistici utilizzati nel campo dello studio dell’affidabilità: tramite Weibull++® si sono valutati i parametri delle distribuzioni che descrivono la probabilità di guasto dei singoli componenti e, a partire da questi dati, sono state studiate le possibili politiche manutentive per ciascun componente ed i costi relativi in BlockSim®. Dapprima sono state confrontate diverse strategie manutentive: correttiva pura e preventiva. Alla scelta della miglior politica manutentiva è stata affiancato lo studio delle strategie di gestione del magazzino, al fine di individuare la più efficace. Sia lo studio della manutenzione che quello della gestione del magazzino sono stati affiancati dalla valutazione di impatto economico.