Nya utmanare – nya strategier? : Etablerade partier bemöter ny konkurrens

The purpose of this study is to examine the strategic choice of mainstream parties in relation to the competition of voters posed by a niche party and their most important issue, in this case radicalist rightwing populists and the migration issue. The study uses a comparative approach to examine the mainstream parties Social Democrats and Moderates reaction to the niche parties New Democracy 1991-1994 and Sweden Democrats 2010-2015. Using Meguid´s PSO-theory and by performing an qualitative analyse of the parties rhetoric and political suggestions in the parliamentary debates as well as in government bills and reservations in committee reports, the study aims to describe mainstream parties position on the issue and if and how they change position and strategy. The results of the study shows that both mainstream parties over all applies an adversarial strategy, aiming to maintain distance to the niche party and its position but with time and due to changes in the political environment, changes in position and strategy takes place and the mainstream parties applies a slightly more accommodative strategy.

The Big Crunch : A Mapping of the Swedish Party System from 1991 to 2010

Previous research claims that there has been a narrowing of distance between the Swedish political parties. Typically, such research into political distance has primarily focused on studying voters rather than the political parties themselves. In this article, the author conducts a longitudinal analysis of Comparative Manifesto Project data to determine if, and to what extent, the political parties have converged ideologically on a Left-Right continuum in the period 1991-2010. After first unraveling the concept of political distance, the author moves on to explain why the ideological dispersion of political parties is an important and consequential characteristic within party systems. Furthermore, the author argues that the Left-Right ideological scale continues to be a highly useful model with which to conceptualize and study this characteristic. The author then discusses the methodological approach and explains why quantitative manifesto data, often overlooked in favor of voter interview data, is deemed a valid and reliable material for measuring the ideological positions of political parties. The findings are that there indeed have been over all tendencies of ideological convergence between the blocs and that, in terms of how political parties are dispersed on a Left- Right ideological continuum, by 2010, the Swedish party system (the Sweden Democrats excluded) had become much less polarized than it had been in 1991.

Nya utmanare – nya strategier? : Etablerade partier bemöter ny konkurrens

The purpose of this study is to examine the strategic choice of mainstream parties in relation to the competition of voters posed by a niche party and their most important issue, in this case radicalist rightwing populists and the migration issue. The study uses a comparative approach to examine the mainstream parties Social Democrats and Moderates reaction to the niche parties New Democracy 1991-1994 and Sweden Democrats 2010-2015. Using Meguid´s PSO-theory and by performing an qualitative analyse of the parties rhetoric and political suggestions in the parliamentary debates as well as in government bills and reservations in committee reports, the study aims to describe mainstream parties position on the issue and if and how they change position and strategy. The results of the study shows that both mainstream parties over all applies an adversarial strategy, aiming to maintain distance to the niche party and its position but with time and due to changes in the political environment, changes in position and strategy takes place and the mainstream parties applies a slightly more accommodative strategy.

Pourquoi et comment désarmer? Le discours public de la SFIO et du Labour sur le désarmement (1925-1932) : étude d'histoire comparée

Pour les partis politiques attachés à des idéaux pacifiques et internationalistes, comme les partis socialistes, la période de préparation à la Conférence mondiale du désarmement, soit entre 1925 et 1932, put paraître pleine de possibilités pour la réduction des armements nationaux. Bien que ces partis aient partagé un lien transnational, par leur adhésion à l’Internationale ouvrière socialiste, ils étaient avant tout des organisations évoluant dans des cadres nationaux différents. Ainsi, les positions qu’ils mirent de l’avant afin de convaincre leur électorat respectif ne purent être totalement semblables. Dans ce mémoire, le discours public, ainsi que les arguments le sous-tendant, de la SFIO et du Labour concernant le désarmement entre le 12 décembre 1925 et le 3 février 1932 est décrit, analysé et comparé. Les raisons du désarmement, les appréciations des développements sur la question autant dans le contexte de la SDN que dans les autres réunions internationales ainsi qu’au niveau strictement national pour les deux partis sont l’objet de cette étude. Il apparaît que la SFIO et le Labour ont présenté des arguments similaires afin de justifier le désarmement. De plus, bien qu’ils aient tous deux appuyé un potentiel rôle d’arbitrage pour la SDN, alors que les socialistes ont insisté sur leur rôle de lobbyistes, les travaillistes tablèrent plutôt sur les responsabilités des chefs d’État et des « grands hommes » dans le processus, tout particulièrement lorsque leur parti fut au pouvoir. Les travaillistes démontrèrent également une ouverture pour toute avancée du désarmement, même minime, alors que les socialistes préférèrent manifestement les ententes globales. Finalement, des approches nationales aux implications différentes furent promues : l’organisation de la nation en temps de guerre en France et la promotion d’un esprit de paix en Grande-Bretagne.

Party Members’ Preferences and the Changing Nature of Party Representation: Does Representation Change when Parties become Mini-Republics?

Giovanni Sartori famously wrote that political parties do not need to be mini-republics, yet today parties in many parliamentary democracies are moving in this direction by giving their members direct votes over important decisions, including selecting party leaders and settling policy issues. This paper explores some of the implications of these changes. It asks whether the addition of membership rights affects the types of members who are attracted: do we find a bigger gap between the preferences of party members and of party voters in parties that are more plebiscitary, as literature on members' motivations might lead us to expect? The paper examines this question both cross-sectionally and longitudinally using opinion data from the European Social Survey and newly-available party organizational data from the Political Party Database project.

THE PHYSICS OF IDEAS: INFERRING THE MECHANICS OF OPINION FORMATION FROM MACROSCOPIC STATISTICAL PATTERNS

In a microscopic setting, humans behave in rich and unexpected ways. In a macroscopic setting, however, distinctive patterns of group behavior emerge, leading statistical physicists to search for an underlying mechanism. The aim of this dissertation is to analyze the macroscopic patterns of competing ideas in order to discern the mechanics of how group opinions form at the microscopic level. First, we explore the competition of answers in online Q&A (question and answer) boards. We find that a simple individual-level model can capture important features of user behavior, especially as the number of answers to a question grows. Our model further suggests that the wisdom of crowds may be constrained by information overload, in which users are unable to thoroughly evaluate each answer and therefore tend to use heuristics to pick what they believe is the best answer. Next, we explore models of opinion spread among voters to explain observed universal statistical patterns such as rescaled vote distributions and logarithmic vote correlations. We introduce a simple model that can explain both properties, as well as why it takes so long for large groups to reach consensus. An important feature of the model that facilitates agreement with data is that individuals become more stubborn (unwilling to change their opinion) over time. Finally, we explore potential underlying mechanisms for opinion formation in juries, by comparing data to various types of models. We find that different null hypotheses in which jurors do not interact when reaching a decision are in strong disagreement with data compared to a simple interaction model. These findings provide conceptual and mechanistic support for previous work that has found mutual influence can play a large role in group decisions. In addition, by matching our models to data, we are able to infer the time scales over which individuals change their opinions for different jury contexts. We find that these values increase as a function of the trial time, suggesting that jurors and judicial panels exhibit a kind of stubbornness similar to what we include in our model of voting behavior.

The New Voter in Western Europe: France and Beyond

This book presents the main results of an electoral panel study which is both unique and innovative not only in French political research but also among Western European electoral studies. The survey was conducted among a sample of 1,846 French voters interviewed on four separate occasions (2007 Presidential and Legislative elections). Electoral trajectories can thus be observed revealing the main trends in electoral behaviour and voting patterns across the electorate. The analysis of such trajectories and patterns mobilizes not only the usual explanatory factors (demographics, political leanings and identifications) but also another set of political variables (issues, the campaign and the media, the candidates' image, how electoral decisions are made, hesitation in voting intentions).This study also provides interesting findings on electoral volatility, including abstention. (Résumé éditeur)

THERE GOES THE ELECTORAL NEIGHBORHOOD: LOCAL NETWORKS, ATTRIBUTION OF RESPONSIBILITY, AND THE (UN) FAIRNESS OF ELECTIONS

During the last two decades there have been but a handful of recorded cases of electoral fraud in Latin America. However, survey research consistently shows that often citizens do not trust the integrity of the electoral process. This dissertation addresses the puzzle by explaining the mismatch between how elections are conducted and how the process is perceived. My theoretical contribution provides a double-folded argument. First, voters’ trust in their community members (“the local experience”) impacts their level of confidence in the electoral process. Since voters often find their peers working at polling stations, negative opinions about them translate into negative opinions about the election. Second, perceptions of unfairness of the system (“the global effect”) negatively impact the way people perceive the transparency of the electoral process. When the political system fails to account for social injustice, citizens lose faith in the mechanism designed to elect representatives -and ultimately a set of policies. The fact that certain groups are systematically disregarded by the system triggers the notion that the electoral process is flawed. This is motivated by either egotropic or sociotropic considerations. To test these hypotheses, I employ a survey conducted in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala during May/June 2014, which includes a population-based experiment. I show that Voters who trust their peers consistently have higher confidence in the electoral process. Whereas respondents who were primed about social unfairness (treatment) expressed less confidence in the quality of the election. Finally, I find that the local experience is predominant over the global effect. The treatment has a statistically significant effect only for respondents who trust their community. Attribution of responsibility for voters who are skeptics of their peers is clear and simple, leaving no room for a more diffuse mechanism, the unfairness of the political system. Finally, now I extend analysis to the Latin America region. Using data from LAPOP that comprises four waves of surveys in 22 countries, I confirm the influence of the “local experience” and the “global effect” as determinants of the level of confidence in the electoral process.

One Person, Many Votes: Divided Majority and Information Aggregation

In elections, majority divisions pave the way to focal manipulations and coordination failures, which can lead to the victory of the wrong candidate. This paper shows how this flaw can be addressed if voter preferences over candidates are sensitive to information. We consider two potential sources of divisions: majority voters may have similar preferences but opposite information about the candidates, or opposite preferences. We show that when information is the source of majority divisions, Approval Voting features a unique equilibrium with full information and coordination equivalence. That is, it produces the same outcome as if both information and coordination problems could be resolved. Other electoral systems, such as Plurality and Two-Round elections, do not satisfy this equivalence. The second source of division is opposite preferences. Whenever the fraction of voters with such preferences is not too large, Approval Voting still satisfies full information and coordination equivalence.

On the Political Aspects of Unemployment: The Case of Election Results

Unemployment is related to economic, political and social aspects. One of the least analysed political aspects is the relationship that, from a partisan or ideological perspective, should exist between the election results and the aging level of the voters, which is to be reflected in different electoral costs of unemployment. This chapter updates previous work on the subject, using a spatial econometrics methodology to estimate the relationship between the levels of aging and the election results that were obtained in the most recent elections that took place in Portugal, i.e. the October 2015 legislative elections. The results confirm the hypothesis that the level of unemployment involves a higher (resp. lower) electoral cost the less (resp. more) aged is the electorate.

Don’t expect me to vote for you just because I like you, even if you do make me feel warm inside: a comparison of the validity of non-ipsative measures of party support

The inclusion of non-ipsative measures of party preference (in essence ratings for each of the parties of a political system) has become established practice in mass surveys conducted for election studies. They exist in different forms, known as thermometer ratings or feeling scores, likes and dislikes scores, or support propensities. Usually only one of these is included in a single survey, which makes it difficult to assess the relative merits of each. The questionnaire of the Irish National Election Study 2002 (INES2002) contained three different batteries of non-ipsative party preferences. This paper investigates some of the properties of these different indicators. We focus in particular on two phenomena. First, the relationship between non-ipsative preferences and the choices actually made on the ballot. In Ireland this relationship is more revealing than in most other countries owing to the electoral system (STV) which allows voters to cast multiple ordered votes for candidates from different parties. Second, we investigate the latent structure of each of the batteries of party preferences and the relationships between them. We conclude that the three instruments are not interchangeable, that they measure different orientations, and that one –the propensity to vote for a party– is by far preferable if the purpose of the study is the explanation of voters’ actual choice behaviour. This finding has important ramifications for the design of election study questionnaires.

VOTING In South Carolina

This paper explains the voting process including: voting at the polling place, voting absentee, provisional ballots, photo ID requirements, curbside voting, assistance with voting, lost voter registration card and voters without photo ID.

The Influence of Accounting Information in the Re-Election of the Mayors in Portugal

The changes recommended by the New Public Management (NPM) in public accounting have given special attention and importance to the evaluation of mayor’s performance by citizens/voters. Thus, this study aims to assess the impact of accounting information on the re-election of Portuguese mayors. Taking the agency theory as a point of departure, we start from the following research question: Does the accounting information disclosed by the municipalities influence the re-election of Portuguese mayors? The research methodology used in this study is the quantitative type, through which a multivariate analysis of data was performed on 308 Portuguese municipalities, in the period 2005-2008, based on the election results of 2009. The results from the binary logistic regression show that some indicators of accounting nature have impact on the re-election of mayors in Portugal, namely, the components of financial accounting and municipal revenues.