Regression, developmental trajectory and associated problems in disorders in the autism spectrum: the SNAP study

We report rates of regression and associated findings in a population derived group of 255 children aged 9-14 years, participating in a prevalence study of autism spectrum disorders (ASD); 53 with narrowly defined autism, 105 with broader ASD and 97 with non-ASD neurodevelopmental problems, drawn from those with special educational needs within a population of 56,946 children. Language regression was reported in 30% with narrowly defined autism, 8% with broader ASD and less than 3% with developmental problems without ASD. A smaller group of children were identified who underwent a less clear setback. Regression was associated with higher rates of autistic symptoms and a deviation in developmental trajectory. Regression was not associated with epilepsy or gastrointestinal problems.

Improvement of classification accuracy for stochastic discrimination - Multi-class classification

In this paper, an improved stochastic discrimination (SD) is introduced to reduce the error rate of the standard SD in the context of multi-class classification problem. The learning procedure of the improved SD consists of two stages. In the first stage, a standard SD, but with shorter learning period is carried out to identify an important space where all the misclassified samples are located. In the second stage, the standard SD is modified by (i) restricting sampling in the important space; and (ii) introducing a new discriminant function for samples in the important space. It is shown by mathematical derivation that the new discriminant function has the same mean, but smaller variance than that of standard SD for samples in the important space. It is also analyzed that the smaller the variance of the discriminant function, the lower the error rate of the classifier. Consequently, the proposed improved SD improves standard SD by its capability of achieving higher classification accuracy. Illustrative examples axe provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed improved SD.

On improvement of classification accuracy for stochastic discrimination

Stochastic discrimination (SD) depends on a discriminant function for classification. In this paper, an improved SD is introduced to reduce the error rate of the standard SD in the context of a two-class classification problem. The learning procedure of the improved SD consists of two stages. Initially a standard SD, but with shorter learning period is carried out to identify an important space where all the misclassified samples are located. Then the standard SD is modified by 1) restricting sampling in the important space, and 2) introducing a new discriminant function for samples in the important space. It is shown by mathematical derivation that the new discriminant function has the same mean, but with a smaller variance than that of the standard SD for samples in the important space. It is also analyzed that the smaller the variance of the discriminant function, the lower the error rate of the classifier. Consequently, the proposed improved SD improves standard SD by its capability of achieving higher classification accuracy. Illustrative examples are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed improved SD.

Assessing the accuracy of a computerized decision support system for digoxin dosing in primary care: an observational study

Background: This study was carried out as part of a European Union funded project (PharmDIS-e+), to develop and evaluate software aimed at assisting physicians with drug dosing. A drug that causes particular problems with drug dosing in primary care is digoxin because of its narrow therapeutic range and low therapeutic index. Objectives: To determine (i) accuracy of the PharmDIS-e+ software for predicting serum digoxin levels in patients who are taking this drug regularly; (ii) whether there are statistically significant differences between predicted digoxin levels and those measured by a laboratory and (iii) whether there are differences between doses prescribed by general practitioners and those suggested by the program. Methods: We needed 45 patients to have 95% Power to reject the null hypothesis that the mean serum digoxin concentration was within 10% of the mean predicted digoxin concentration. Patients were recruited from two general practices and had been taking digoxin for at least 4 months. Exclusion criteria were dementia, low adherence to digoxin and use of other medications known to interact to a clinically important extent with digoxin. Results: Forty-five patients were recruited. There was a correlation of 0·65 between measured and predicted digoxin concentrations (P < 0·001). The mean difference was 0·12 μg/L (SD 0·26; 95% CI 0·04, 0·19, P = 0·005). Forty-seven per cent of the patients were prescribed the same dose as recommended by the software, 44% were prescribed a higher dose and 9% a lower dose than recommended. Conclusion: PharmDIS-e+ software was able to predict serum digoxin levels with acceptable accuracy in most patients.

Evidence that indirect inhibition of saccade initiation improves saccade accuracy

Saccadic eye-movements to a visual target are less accurate if there are distracters close to its location (local distracters). The addition of more distracters, remote from the target location (remote distracters), invokes an involuntary increase in the response latency of the saccade and attenuates the effect of local distracters on accuracy. This may be due to the target and distracters directly competing (direct route) or to the remote distracters acting to impair the ability to disengage from fixation (indirect route). To distinguish between these we examined the development of saccade competition by recording saccade latency and accuracy responses made to a target and local distracter compared with those made with an addition of a remote distracter. The direct route would predict that the remote distracter impacts on the developing competition between target and local distracter, while the indirect route would predict no change as the accuracy benefit here derives from accessing the same competitive process but at a later stage. We found that the presence of the remote distracter did not change the pattern of accuracy improvement. This suggests that the remote distracter was acting along an indirect route that inhibits disengagement from fixation, slows saccade initiation, and enables more accurate saccades to be made.

The use of trajectory cluster analysis to interpret trace gas measurements at Mace Head, Ireland

A first step in interpreting the wide variation in trace gas concentrations measured over time at a given site is to classify the data according to the prevailing weather conditions. In order to classify measurements made during two intensive field campaigns at Mace Head, on the west coast of Ireland, an objective method of assigning data to different weather types has been developed. Air-mass back trajectories calculated using winds from ECMWF analyses, arriving at the site in 1995–1997, were allocated to clusters based on a statistical analysis of the latitude, longitude and pressure of the trajectory at 12 h intervals over 5 days. The robustness of the analysis was assessed by using an ensemble of back trajectories calculated for four points around Mace Head. Separate analyses were made for each of the 3 years, and for four 3-month periods. The use of these clusters in classifying ground-based ozone measurements at Mace Head is described, including the need to exclude data which have been influenced by local perturbations to the regional flow pattern, for example, by sea breezes. Even with a limited data set, based on 2 months of intensive field measurements in 1996 and 1997, there are statistically significant differences in ozone concentrations in air from the different clusters. The limitations of this type of analysis for classification and interpretation of ground-based chemistry measurements are discussed.

Autonomous ship collision free trajectory navigation and control algorithms

A new autonomous ship collision free (ASCF) trajectory navigation and control system has been introduced with a new recursive navigation algorithm based on analytic geometry and convex set theory for ship collision free guidance. The underlying assumption is that the geometric information of ship environment is available in the form of a polygon shaped free space, which may be easily generated from a 2D image or plots relating to physical hazards or other constraints such as collision avoidance regulations. The navigation command is given as a heading command sequence based on generating a way point which falls within a small neighborhood of the current position, and the sequence of the way points along the trajectory are guaranteed to lie within a bounded obstacle free region using convex set theory. A neurofuzzy network predictor which in practice uses only observed input/output data generated by on board sensors or external sensors (or a sensor fusion algorithm), based on using rudder deflection angle for the control of ship heading angle, is utilised in the simulation of an ESSO 190000 dwt tanker model to demonstrate the effectiveness of the system.

Minimum jerk trajectory control for rehabilitation and haptic applications

Smooth trajectories are essential for safe interaction in between human and a haptic interface. Different methods and strategies have been introduced to create such smooth trajectories. This paper studies the creation of human-like movements in haptic interfaces, based on the study of human arm motion. These motions are intended to retrain the upper limb movements of patients that lose manipulation functions following stroke. We present a model that uses higher degree polynomials to define a trajectory and control the robot arm to achieve minimum jerk movements. It also studies different methods that can be driven from polynomials to create more realistic human-like movements for therapeutic purposes.

Valuation accuracy: reconciling the timing of the valuation and sale

Carsberg (2002) suggested that the periodic valuation accuracy studies undertaken by, amongst others, IPD/Drivers Jonas (2003) should be undertaken every year and be sponsored by the RICS, which acts as the self-regulating body for valuations in the UK. This paper does not address the wider issues concerning the nature of properties which are sold and whether the sale prices are influenced by prior valuations, but considers solely the technical issues concerning the timing of the valuation and sales data. This study uses valuations and sales data from the Investment Property Databank UK Monthly Index to attempt to identify the date that sale data is divulged to valuers. This information will inform accuracy studies that use a cut-off date as to the closeness of valuations to sales completion date as a yardstick for excluding data from the analysis. It will also, assuming valuers are informed quickly of any agreed sales, help to determine the actual sale agreed date rather than the completion date, which includes a period of due diligence between when the sale is agreed and its completion. Valuations should be updated to this date, rather than the formal completion date, if a reliable measure of valuation accuracy is to be determined. An accuracy study is then undertaken using a variety of updating periods and the differences between the results are examined. The paper concludes that the sale only becomes known to valuers in the month prior to the sale taking place and that this assumes either that sales due diligence procedures are shortening or valuers are not told quickly of agreed sale prices. Studies that adopt a four-month cut-off date for any valuations compared to sales completion dates are over cautious, and this could be reduced to two months without compromising the data.