Asset Prices, Business Cycles, and Markov-Perfect Fiscal Policy when Agents are Risk-Sensitive

We study a business cycle model in which a benevolent fiscal authority must determine the optimal provision of government services, while lacking credibility, lump-sum taxes, and the ability to bond finance deficits. Households and the fiscal authority have risk sensitive preferences. We find that outcomes are affected importantly by the household's risk sensitivity, but not by the fiscal authority's. Further, while household risk-sensitivity induces a strong precautionary saving motive, which raises capital and lowers the return on assets, its effects on fluctuations and the business cycle are generally small, although more pronounced for negative shocks. Holding the stochastic steady state constant, increases in household risk-sensitivity lower the risk-free rate and raise the return on equity, increasing the equity premium. Finally, although risk-sensitivity has little effect on the provision of government services, it does cause the fiscal authority to lower the income tax rate. An additional contribution of this paper is to present a method for computing Markov-perfect equilibria in models where private agents and the government are risk-sensitive decisionmakers.

The management of iron deficiency in inflammatory bowel disease--an online tool developed by the RAND/UCLA appropriateness method.

BACKGROUND: Iron deficiency is a common and undertreated problem in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). AIM: To develop an online tool to support treatment choice at the patient-specific level. METHODS: Using the RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method (RUAM), a European expert panel assessed the appropriateness of treatment regimens for a variety of clinical scenarios in patients with non-anaemic iron deficiency (NAID) and iron deficiency anaemia (IDA). Treatment options included adjustment of IBD medication only, oral iron supplementation, high-/low-dose intravenous (IV) regimens, IV iron plus erythropoietin-stimulating agent (ESA), and blood transfusion. The panel process consisted of two individual rating rounds (1148 treatment indications; 9-point scale) and three plenary discussion meetings. RESULTS: The panel reached agreement on 71% of treatment indications. 'No treatment' was never considered appropriate, and repeat treatment after previous failure was generally discouraged. For 98% of scenarios, at least one treatment was appropriate. Adjustment of IBD medication was deemed appropriate in all patients with active disease. Use of oral iron was mainly considered an option in NAID and mildly anaemic patients without disease activity. IV regimens were often judged appropriate, with high-dose IV iron being the preferred option in 77% of IDA scenarios. Blood transfusion and IV+ESA were indicated in exceptional cases only. CONCLUSIONS: The RUAM revealed high agreement amongst experts on the management of iron deficiency in patients with IBD. High-dose IV iron was more often considered appropriate than other options. To facilitate dissemination of the recommendations, panel outcomes were embedded in an online tool, accessible via http://ferroscope.com/.

Living in the Wrong Neighbourhood: State Failure and its Implications for Neighbouring Countries

Why and how do failed states affect neighbouring countries? The attention of the international community towards state failure has grown significantly in recent years, improving the understanding of this phenomenon; nevertheless, the knowledge about the influence of state failure on neighbouring countries remain scarce. This research aims at contributing to filling up the existing gap by analyzing two different cases of state failure –Liberia and Afghanistan– and its consequences on four of their neighbours –Sierra Leone, Guinea, Pakistan and Tajikistan. More concretely, this research investigates the importance of insurgency movements in the relationship between these countries. The research argues that failed states generate conflict-enhancing mechanisms –which might lead to conflict outbreak– in their neighbours through the creation of informal networks. The empiric evidence shows how insurgency-based informal networks have a decisive role in the outbreak of conflict.

Synaptobrevin N-terminally bound to syntaxin-SNAP-25 defines the primed vesicle state in regulated exocytosis.

Rapid neurotransmitter release depends on the ability to arrest the SNAP receptor (SNARE)-dependent exocytosis pathway at an intermediate "cocked" state, from which fusion can be triggered by Ca(2+). It is not clear whether this state includes assembly of synaptobrevin (the vesicle membrane SNARE) to the syntaxin-SNAP-25 (target membrane SNAREs) acceptor complex or whether the reaction is arrested upstream of that step. In this study, by a combination of in vitro biophysical measurements and time-resolved exocytosis measurements in adrenal chromaffin cells, we find that mutations of the N-terminal interaction layers of the SNARE bundle inhibit assembly in vitro and vesicle priming in vivo without detectable changes in triggering speed or fusion pore properties. In contrast, mutations in the last C-terminal layer decrease triggering speed and fusion pore duration. Between the two domains, we identify a region exquisitely sensitive to mutation, possibly constituting a switch. Our data are consistent with a model in which the N terminus of the SNARE complex assembles during vesicle priming, followed by Ca(2+)-triggered C-terminal assembly and membrane fusion.

Simulium (Chirostilbia) bifenestratum (Diptera, Simuliidae), a new black-fly species from the Atlantic forest, State of São Paulo, Brazil

The larva, pupa, male, and female of Simulium bifenestratum n. sp. are described and illustrated. The pupae of the new species have 10 gill filaments, thick at their base and arranged in a three-dimensional way, surrounding the head and thorax. Its pupal cocoon is peculiar, not found in any of the known Brazilian black-fly species; it is very thick and hard with two openings in the anterior region. S. bifenestratum n. sp. was collected in one stream in the Bocaina mountain chain, Atlantic forest, in São José do Barreiro county, state of São Paulo, in a high (1500 m) natural grassland. Larvae and pupae were collected on the edges of small waterfalls and in places with-high speed laminar water flow, attached to the bedrock.

The initial epidemiological studies in the low endemicity schistosomiasis area in esteio, Rio Grande do Sul, the southernmost Brazilian State, 1997 to 2000

Nor Biomphalaria glabrata neither Schistosoma mansoni were reported from Rio Grande do Sul, the southernmost Brazilian state before 1997. Their detection next to the Sinos River, Esteio, confirmed predictions of schistosomiasis expansion to the south. Parasitological examinations both in snails and fecal samples from the human population were performed from 1997 to 2000. The last 3 out of 5 surveys were performed after a preliminar serological screening procedure in a risk group identified at a population census. A total of 11 infected individuals were found infected and snails from 2 different sites were positive for S. mansoni. Samples from these 2 and other sites were identified as B. glabrata. Egg counts in feces were below 1 per gram in 6 out of 11 patients. Some socio-cultural perceptions of water contact activities next to the Sinos River may cause difficulties to control efforts, but they also may be partially acting against a very rapid increase in transmission intensity. The southernmost schistomiasis mansoni foci in Americas rise the alert for its ongoing expansion.

Dispersal and survival of Nyssomyia intermedia and Nyssomyia neivai (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae) in a cutaneous leishmaniasis endemic area of the speleological province of the Ribeira Valley, state of São Paulo, Brazil

The dispersal and survival of the phlebotomines Nyssomyia intermedia and Nyssomyia neivai (both implicated as vectors of the cutaneous leishmaniasis agent) in an endemic area was investigated using a capture-mark-release technique in five experiments from August-December 2003 in municipality of Iporanga, state of São Paulo, Brazil. A total of 1,749 males and 1,262 females of Ny. intermedia and 915 males and 411 females of Ny. neivai were marked and released during the five experiments. Recapture attempts were made using automatic light traps, aspiration in natural resting places and domestic animal shelters and Shannon traps. A total of 153 specimens (3.48%) were recaptured: 2.59% (78/3,011) for Ny. intermedia and 5.35% (71/1,326) for Ny. neivai. Both species were recaptured up to 144 h post-release, with the larger part of them recaptured within 48 h. The median dispersion distances for Ny. intermedia and Ny. neivai, respectively, were 109 m and 100 m. The greatest dispersal range of Ny. intermedia was 180 m, while for Ny. neivai one female was recaptured in a pasture at 250 m and another in a pigsty at 520 m, showing a tendency to disperse to more open areas. The daily survival rates calculated based on regressions of the numbers of marked insects recaptured on the six successive days after release were 0.746 for males and 0.575 for females of Ny. intermedia and 0.649 for both sexes of Ny. neivai. The size of the populations in the five months ranged from 8,332-725,085 for Ny. intermedia males, 2,193-104,490 for Ny. intermedia females, 1,687-350,122 for Ny. neivai males and 254-49,705 for Ny. neivai females.

Cognitive impairment in patients with fibromyalgia syndrome as assessed by the mini-mental state examination.

This study evaluated the frequency of cognitive impairment in patients with Fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS) using the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE). METHODS We analyzed baseline data from all 46 patients with FMS and 92 age- and sex-matched controls per diagnosis of neuropathic (NeP) or mixed pain (MP) selected from a larger prospective study. RESULTS FMS had a slight but statistically significant lower score in the adjusted MMSE score (26.9; 95% CI 26.7-27.1) than either NeP (27.3; 95% CI 27.2-27.4) or MP (27.3; 27.2-27.5). The percentage of patients with congnitive impairment (adjusted MMSE the same age stratum of the general population (0.05%). CONCLUSIONS Compared with the population reference value, patients with FMS showed high frequency of cognitive impairment.

Genetic and morphological characterisation of a new species of the genus Hysterothylacium (Nematoda) from Paralichthys isosceles Jordan, 1890 (Pisces: Teleostei) of the Neotropical Region, state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Taking into account the difficulties of taxonomic identification of larval anisakid nematodes based on morphological characters, genetic analyses were performed, together with those usually applied, in order to identify anisakid larvae found in the flounder Paralichthys isosceles from the littoral of the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The analysis of 1,820 larvae revealed a new species, similar to Hysterothylacium MD, Hysterothylacium 2, Hysterothylacium KB and Hysterothylacium sp regarding the absence of the larval tooth, an excretory pore situated below the nerve ring level, and slender lateral alae. Moreover, the new species differs from Hysterothylacium fortalezae and Hysterothylacium reliquens with regard to the number and size of spines present on the tail end and from Hysterothylacium patagonicus by the absence of interlabia. The maximum parsimony and neighbour joining tree topologies based on the 18S ribosomal DNA gene, complete internal transcribed spacer region and cytochrome oxidase 2 (COII) gene demonstrated that the Brazilian larvae belong to Raphidascarididae and represent a unique genetic entity, confirmed as a new Hysterothylacium species. Furthermore, the new species presents COII genetic signatures and shares polymorphisms with Raphidascarididae members. This is the first description of a new anisakid species from Brazil through the integration of morphological and molecular taxonomy data.

Inference about the number of contributors to a DNA mixture: Comparative analyses of a Bayesian network approach and the maximum allele count method.

In the forensic examination of DNA mixtures, the question of how to set the total number of contributors (N) presents a topic of ongoing interest. Part of the discussion gravitates around issues of bias, in particular when assessments of the number of contributors are not made prior to considering the genotypic configuration of potential donors. Further complication may stem from the observation that, in some cases, there may be numbers of contributors that are incompatible with the set of alleles seen in the profile of a mixed crime stain, given the genotype of a potential contributor. In such situations, procedures that take a single and fixed number contributors as their output can lead to inferential impasses. Assessing the number of contributors within a probabilistic framework can help avoiding such complication. Using elements of decision theory, this paper analyses two strategies for inference on the number of contributors. One procedure is deterministic and focuses on the minimum number of contributors required to 'explain' an observed set of alleles. The other procedure is probabilistic using Bayes' theorem and provides a probability distribution for a set of numbers of contributors, based on the set of observed alleles as well as their respective rates of occurrence. The discussion concentrates on mixed stains of varying quality (i.e., different numbers of loci for which genotyping information is available). A so-called qualitative interpretation is pursued since quantitative information such as peak area and height data are not taken into account. The competing procedures are compared using a standard scoring rule that penalizes the degree of divergence between a given agreed value for N, that is the number of contributors, and the actual value taken by N. Using only modest assumptions and a discussion with reference to a casework example, this paper reports on analyses using simulation techniques and graphical models (i.e., Bayesian networks) to point out that setting the number of contributors to a mixed crime stain in probabilistic terms is, for the conditions assumed in this study, preferable to a decision policy that uses categoric assumptions about N.

A Dethroned King? The Limits of State Infrastructural Power in France

Since the 1980s in Western Europe, centralized states' control over subnational territories has been deeply affected by processes of Europeanization and regionalization. These changes have raised the issue of state territorial restructuring in a particular fashion: what capacity have formerly centralized states retained to steer and control subnational territories? The article draws on Mann's concept of infrastructural power, which refers to the state's capacity to exercise control and implement political decisions over the national territory. The article applies the two main operationalizations of the concept, namely the capability of the state to exercise control and the weight of the state in the subnational territories. Empirically, the article focuses on the French state in two policy sectors (education and housing). Although France is a most likely case, this article challenges this expectation, and shows the limits of the French state's infrastructural power over the subnational territories since the late 1980s.