906 resultados para stochastic geometry


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This thesis addresses the coolability of porous debris beds in the context of severe accident management of nuclear power reactors. In a hypothetical severe accident at a Nordic-type boiling water reactor, the lower drywell of the containment is flooded, for the purpose of cooling the core melt discharged from the reactor pressure vessel in a water pool. The melt is fragmented and solidified in the pool, ultimately forming a porous debris bed that generates decay heat. The properties of the bed determine the limiting value for the heat flux that can be removed from the debris to the surrounding water without the risk of re-melting. The coolability of porous debris beds has been investigated experimentally by measuring the dryout power in electrically heated test beds that have different geometries. The geometries represent the debris bed shapes that may form in an accident scenario. The focus is especially on heap-like, realistic geometries which facilitate the multi-dimensional infiltration (flooding) of coolant into the bed. Spherical and irregular particles have been used to simulate the debris. The experiments have been modeled using 2D and 3D simulation codes applicable to fluid flow and heat transfer in porous media. Based on the experimental and simulation results, an interpretation of the dryout behavior in complex debris bed geometries is presented, and the validity of the codes and models for dryout predictions is evaluated. According to the experimental and simulation results, the coolability of the debris bed depends on both the flooding mode and the height of the bed. In the experiments, it was found that multi-dimensional flooding increases the dryout heat flux and coolability in a heap-shaped debris bed by 47–58% compared to the dryout heat flux of a classical, top-flooded bed of the same height. However, heap-like beds are higher than flat, top-flooded beds, which results in the formation of larger steam flux at the top of the bed. This counteracts the effect of the multi-dimensional flooding. Based on the measured dryout heat fluxes, the maximum height of a heap-like bed can only be about 1.5 times the height of a top-flooded, cylindrical bed in order to preserve the direct benefit from the multi-dimensional flooding. In addition, studies were conducted to evaluate the hydrodynamically representative effective particle diameter, which is applied in simulation models to describe debris beds that consist of irregular particles with considerable size variation. The results suggest that the effective diameter is small, closest to the mean diameter based on the number or length of particles.

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Different axioms underlie efficient market theory and Keynes's liquidity preference theory. Efficient market theory assumes the ergodic axiom. Consequently, today's decision makers can calculate with actuarial precision the future value of all possible outcomes resulting from today's decisions. Since in an efficient market world decision makers "know" their intertemporal budget constraints, decision makers never default on a loan, i.e., systemic defaults, insolvencies, and bankruptcies are impossible. Keynes liquidity preference theory rejects the ergodic axiom. The future is ontologically uncertain. Accordingly systemic defaults and insolvencies can occur but can never be predicted in advance.

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Since its discovery, chaos has been a very interesting and challenging topic of research. Many great minds spent their entire lives trying to give some rules to it. Nowadays, thanks to the research of last century and the advent of computers, it is possible to predict chaotic phenomena of nature for a certain limited amount of time. The aim of this study is to present a recently discovered method for the parameter estimation of the chaotic dynamical system models via the correlation integral likelihood, and give some hints for a more optimized use of it, together with a possible application to the industry. The main part of our study concerned two chaotic attractors whose general behaviour is diff erent, in order to capture eventual di fferences in the results. In the various simulations that we performed, the initial conditions have been changed in a quite exhaustive way. The results obtained show that, under certain conditions, this method works very well in all the case. In particular, it came out that the most important aspect is to be very careful while creating the training set and the empirical likelihood, since a lack of information in this part of the procedure leads to low quality results.

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The aim of this study is to propose a stochastic model for commodity markets linked with the Burgers equation from fluid dynamics. We construct a stochastic particles method for commodity markets, in which particles represent market participants. A discontinuity in the model is included through an interacting kernel equal to the Heaviside function and its link with the Burgers equation is given. The Burgers equation and the connection of this model with stochastic differential equations are also studied. Further, based on the law of large numbers, we prove the convergence, for large N, of a system of stochastic differential equations describing the evolution of the prices of N traders to a deterministic partial differential equation of Burgers type. Numerical experiments highlight the success of the new proposal in modeling some commodity markets, and this is confirmed by the ability of the model to reproduce price spikes when their effects occur in a sufficiently long period of time.

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Traduction de Wylie, rédigée par Li Shan lan ; préfaces Chinoises des deux traducteurs (1859) ; préface anglaise, écrite à Shang hai par A. Wylie (juillet 1859). Liste de termes techniques en anglais et en Chinois. Gravé à la maison Mo hai (1859).18 livres.

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Impurity free eluission spectra of HCCCHO and DCCCHO have been rephotographed using the electronic-energy-exchange method with benzene as a carrier gas. The near ultraviolet spectra of ReeCHO and DCCCHO were photographed in a sorption under conditions of high resolution with absorption path lengths up to 100 meters. The emission and absorption spectra of Propynal resulting from 3 n 1 t 1\ - A excitation has been reanalyzed in som.e detail. Botrl of the eH out-of-plane wagging modes were found to have negative anharmonicity. A barrier height of 56.8/0.0 cm- 1 and a nonplanar oft , , equilibrium angle of 17 3 /30 are calculated for the V 10/ lJ 11 modes. The in-plane and out-of-plane v1. brational modes in the 3A." and 1a~. ' elec ronic states of Propynal were subjected to a normal coordinate treatment in the approximat :on of tIle Urey-Bradley force field. From the relative oscillator strengths of the trans1·t1·0ns connect i ng t he v ibrat1•0n1ess lA' , state and t,he V1· bron1·C 3· if levels of the A state, the differences in equilibrium configuration were evaluated from an approximate Franck-Condon analysis based on the ground state normal coordinates. As this treatment gave 512 possible geometrical structures for the upper state, it 4 was necessary to resort to a comparison of the observed and calculated moments of inertia along with chemical intuition to isolate the structure. A test of the correctness of the calculated structure change and the vibrational assignment was raade by evaluating the intensities of the inplane and out-oi-plane fundarnental, sequence, and cross sequellce transitions y the exact Franck-Condon method.

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Our objective is to develop a diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) algorithm to estimate the exact expectation values, ($o|^|^o), of multiplicative operators, such as polarizabilities and high-order hyperpolarizabilities, for isolated atoms and molecules. The existing forward-walking pure diffusion Monte Carlo (FW-PDMC) algorithm which attempts this has a serious bias. On the other hand, the DMC algorithm with minimal stochastic reconfiguration provides unbiased estimates of the energies, but the expectation values ($o|^|^) are contaminated by ^, an user specified, approximate wave function, when A does not commute with the Hamiltonian. We modified the latter algorithm to obtain the exact expectation values for these operators, while at the same time eliminating the bias. To compare the efficiency of FW-PDMC and the modified DMC algorithms we calculated simple properties of the H atom, such as various functions of coordinates and polarizabilities. Using three non-exact wave functions, one of moderate quality and the others very crude, in each case the results are within statistical error of the exact values.

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A feature-based fitness function is applied in a genetic programming system to synthesize stochastic gene regulatory network models whose behaviour is defined by a time course of protein expression levels. Typically, when targeting time series data, the fitness function is based on a sum-of-errors involving the values of the fluctuating signal. While this approach is successful in many instances, its performance can deteriorate in the presence of noise. This thesis explores a fitness measure determined from a set of statistical features characterizing the time series' sequence of values, rather than the actual values themselves. Through a series of experiments involving symbolic regression with added noise and gene regulatory network models based on the stochastic 'if-calculus, it is shown to successfully target oscillating and non-oscillating signals. This practical and versatile fitness function offers an alternate approach, worthy of consideration for use in algorithms that evaluate noisy or stochastic behaviour.

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Three dimensional model design is a well-known and studied field, with numerous real-world applications. However, the manual construction of these models can often be time-consuming to the average user, despite the advantages o ffered through computational advances. This thesis presents an approach to the design of 3D structures using evolutionary computation and L-systems, which involves the automated production of such designs using a strict set of fitness functions. These functions focus on the geometric properties of the models produced, as well as their quantifiable aesthetic value - a topic which has not been widely investigated with respect to 3D models. New extensions to existing aesthetic measures are discussed and implemented in the presented system in order to produce designs which are visually pleasing. The system itself facilitates the construction of models requiring minimal user initialization and no user-based feedback throughout the evolutionary cycle. The genetic programming evolved models are shown to satisfy multiple criteria, conveying a relationship between their assigned aesthetic value and their perceived aesthetic value. Exploration into the applicability and e ffectiveness of a multi-objective approach to the problem is also presented, with a focus on both performance and visual results. Although subjective, these results o er insight into future applications and study in the fi eld of computational aesthetics and automated structure design.

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The aim of this thesis is to price options on equity index futures with an application to standard options on S&P 500 futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Our methodology is based on stochastic dynamic programming, which can accommodate European as well as American options. The model accommodates dividends from the underlying asset. It also captures the optimal exercise strategy and the fair value of the option. This approach is an alternative to available numerical pricing methods such as binomial trees, finite differences, and ad-hoc numerical approximation techniques. Our numerical and empirical investigations demonstrate convergence, robustness, and efficiency. We use this methodology to value exchange-listed options. The European option premiums thus obtained are compared to Black's closed-form formula. They are accurate to four digits. The American option premiums also have a similar level of accuracy compared to premiums obtained using finite differences and binomial trees with a large number of time steps. The proposed model accounts for deterministic, seasonally varying dividend yield. In pricing futures options, we discover that what matters is the sum of the dividend yields over the life of the futures contract and not their distribution.