Models and algorithms for tracking of maneuvering objects using variable rate particle filters

Standard algorithms in tracking and other state-space models assume identical and synchronous sampling rates for the state and measurement processes. However, real trajectories of objects are typically characterized by prolonged smooth sections, with sharp, but infrequent, changes. Thus, a more parsimonious representation of a target trajectory may be obtained by direct modeling of maneuver times in the state process, independently from the observation times. This is achieved by assuming the state arrival times to follow a random process, typically specified as Markovian, so that state points may be allocated along the trajectory according to the degree of variation observed. The resulting variable dimension state inference problem is solved by developing an efficient variable rate particle filtering algorithm to recursively update the posterior distribution of the state sequence as new data becomes available. The methodology is quite general and can be applied across many models where dynamic model uncertainty occurs on-line. Specific models are proposed for the dynamics of a moving object under internal forcing, expressed in terms of the intrinsic dynamics of the object. The performance of the algorithms with these dynamical models is demonstrated on several challenging maneuvering target tracking problems in clutter. © 2006 IEEE.

A backward particle interpretation of Feynman-Kac formulae

We design a particle interpretation of Feynman-Kac measures on path spaces based on a backward Markovian representation combined with a traditional mean field particle interpretation of the flow of their final time marginals. In contrast to traditional genealogical tree based models, these new particle algorithms can be used to compute normalized additive functionals "on-the-fly" as well as their limiting occupation measures with a given precision degree that does not depend on the final time horizon. We provide uniform convergence results with respect to the time horizon parameter as well as functional central limit theorems and exponential concentration estimates. Our results have important consequences for online parameter estimation for non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. We show how the forward filtering backward smoothing estimates of additive functionals can be computed using a forward only recursion.

Bending solution of high-order refined shear deformation-theory for rectangular composite plates

A new high-order refined shear deformation theory based on Reissner's mixed variational principle in conjunction with the state- space concept is used to determine the deflections and stresses for rectangular cross-ply composite plates. A zig-zag shaped function and Legendre polynomials are introduced to approximate the in-plane displacement distributions across the plate thickness. Numerical results are presented with different edge conditions, aspect ratios, lamination schemes and loadings. A comparison with the exact solutions obtained by Pagano and the results by Khdeir indicates that the present theory accurately estimates the in-plane responses.

Emergence of Cooperation in Heterogeneous Population: A Discrete-Time Replicator Dynamics Analysis

The emergence of cooperation is analyzed in heterogeneous populations where individuals can be classified in two groups according to their phenotypic appearance. Phenotype recognition is assumed for all individuals: individuals are able to identify the type of every other individual, but fail to recognize their own type, and thus behave under partial information conditions. The interactions between individuals are described by 2 × 2 symmetric games where individuals can either cooperate or defect. The evolution of such populations is studied in the framework of evolutionary game by means of the replicator dynamics. Overlapping generations are considered, so the replicator equations are formulated in discrete-time form. The well-posedness conditions of the system are derived. Depending on the parameters of the game, a restriction may exist for the generation length. The stability analysis of the dynamical system is carried out and a detailed description of the behavior of trajectories starting from the interior of the state-space is given. We find that, provided the conditions of well-posedness are verified, the linear stability of monomorphic states in the discrete-time replicator coincides with the one of the continuous case. Specific from the discrete-time case, a relaxed restriction for the generation length is derived, for which larger time-steps can be used without compromising the well-posedness of the replicator system.

Kalman Filtering in R

Support in R for state space estimation via Kalman filtering was limited to one package, until fairly recently. In the last five years, the situation has changed with no less than four additional packages offering general implementations of the Kalman filter, including in some cases smoothing, simulation smoothing and other functionality. This paper reviews some of the offerings in R to help the prospective user to make an informed choice.

Relating thermodynamics to information theory : the equality of free energy and mutual information

In this thesis we uncover a new relation which links thermodynamics and information theory. We consider time as a channel and the detailed state of a physical system as a message. As the system evolves with time, ever present noise insures that the "message" is corrupted. Thermodynamic free energy measures the approach of the system toward equilibrium. Information theoretical mutual information measures the loss of memory of initial state. We regard the free energy and the mutual information as operators which map probability distributions over state space to real numbers. In the limit of long times, we show how the free energy operator and the mutual information operator asymptotically attain a very simple relationship to one another. This relationship is founded on the common appearance of entropy in the two operators and on an identity between internal energy and conditional entropy. The use of conditional entropy is what distinguishes our approach from previous efforts to relate thermodynamics and information theory.

Vibrational pooling and constrained equilibration on surfaces

In this thesis, we provide a statistical theory for the vibrational pooling and fluorescence time dependence observed in infrared laser excitation of CO on an NaCl surface. The pooling is seen in experiment and in computer simulations. In the theory, we assume a rapid equilibration of the quanta in the substrate and minimize the free energy subject to the constraint at any time t of a fixed number of vibrational quanta N(t). At low incident intensity, the distribution is limited to one- quantum exchanges with the solid and so the Debye frequency of the solid plays a key role in limiting the range of this one-quantum domain. The resulting inverted vibrational equilibrium population depends only on fundamental parameters of the oscillator (ω_e and ω_eχ_e) and the surface (ω_D and T). Possible applications and relation to the Treanor gas phase treatment are discussed. Unlike the solid phase system, the gas phase system has no Debye-constraining maximum. We discuss the possible distributions for arbitrary N-conserving diatom-surface pairs, and include application to H:Si(111) as an example.

Computations are presented to describe and analyze the high levels of infrared laser-induced vibrational excitation of a monolayer of absorbed ¹³CO on a NaCl(100) surface. The calculations confirm that, for situations where the Debye frequency limited n domain restriction approximately holds, the vibrational state population deviates from a Boltzmann population linearly in n. Nonetheless, the full kinetic calculation is necessary to capture the result in detail.

We discuss the one-to-one relationship between N and γ and the examine the state space of the new distribution function for varied γ. We derive the Free Energy, F = NγkT − kTln(∑P_n), and effective chemical potential, μn ≈ γkT, for the vibrational pool. We also find the anti correlation of neighbor vibrations leads to an emergent correlation that appears to extend further than nearest neighbor.

Control of dynamical systems with temporal logic specifications

This thesis is motivated by safety-critical applications involving autonomous air, ground, and space vehicles carrying out complex tasks in uncertain and adversarial environments. We use temporal logic as a language to formally specify complex tasks and system properties. Temporal logic specifications generalize the classical notions of stability and reachability that are studied in the control and hybrid systems communities. Given a system model and a formal task specification, the goal is to automatically synthesize a control policy for the system that ensures that the system satisfies the specification. This thesis presents novel control policy synthesis algorithms for optimal and robust control of dynamical systems with temporal logic specifications. Furthermore, it introduces algorithms that are efficient and extend to high-dimensional dynamical systems.

The first contribution of this thesis is the generalization of a classical linear temporal logic (LTL) control synthesis approach to optimal and robust control. We show how we can extend automata-based synthesis techniques for discrete abstractions of dynamical systems to create optimal and robust controllers that are guaranteed to satisfy an LTL specification. Such optimal and robust controllers can be computed at little extra computational cost compared to computing a feasible controller.

The second contribution of this thesis addresses the scalability of control synthesis with LTL specifications. A major limitation of the standard automaton-based approach for control with LTL specifications is that the automaton might be doubly-exponential in the size of the LTL specification. We introduce a fragment of LTL for which one can compute feasible control policies in time polynomial in the size of the system and specification. Additionally, we show how to compute optimal control policies for a variety of cost functions, and identify interesting cases when this can be done in polynomial time. These techniques are particularly relevant for online control, as one can guarantee that a feasible solution can be found quickly, and then iteratively improve on the quality as time permits.

The final contribution of this thesis is a set of algorithms for computing feasible trajectories for high-dimensional, nonlinear systems with LTL specifications. These algorithms avoid a potentially computationally-expensive process of computing a discrete abstraction, and instead compute directly on the system's continuous state space. The first method uses an automaton representing the specification to directly encode a series of constrained-reachability subproblems, which can be solved in a modular fashion by using standard techniques. The second method encodes an LTL formula as mixed-integer linear programming constraints on the dynamical system. We demonstrate these approaches with numerical experiments on temporal logic motion planning problems with high-dimensional (10+ states) continuous systems.

Convex model predictive control for vehicular systems

In this work, the author presents a method called Convex Model Predictive Control (CMPC) to control systems whose states are elements of the rotation matrices SO(n) for n = 2, 3. This is done without charts or any local linearization, and instead is performed by operating over the orbitope of rotation matrices. This results in a novel model predictive control (MPC) scheme without the drawbacks associated with conventional linearization techniques such as slow computation time and local minima. Of particular emphasis is the application to aeronautical and vehicular systems, wherein the method removes many of the trigonometric terms associated with these systems’ state space equations. Furthermore, the method is shown to be compatible with many existing variants of MPC, including obstacle avoidance via Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP).

Theoretical investigation of nonvolatile holographic storage in doubly doped lithium niobate crystals

We have studied theoretically the inherent mechanisms of nonvolatile holographic storage in doubly doped LiNbO3 crystals. The photochromic effect of doubly doped LiNbO3 crystals is discussed, and the criterion for this effect is obtained through the photochromism-bleach factor a = S(21)gamma(1)/S(11)gamma(2) that we define. The two-center recording and fixing processes are analytically discussed with extended Kukhtarev equations, and analytical expressions for recorded and fixed steady-state space-charge fields as well as temporal behavior during the fixing process are obtained. The effects of microphysical quantities, the macrophotochromic effect on fixing efficiency, and recorded and fixed steady-state space-charge fields, are discussed analytically and numerically. (C) 2002 Optical Society of America.

Stationary absolute distributions for chains of infinite order

Let {Ƶ_n}^∞_{n = -∞} be a stochastic process with state space S₁ = {0, 1, …, D – 1}. Such a process is called a chain of infinite order. The transitions of the chain are described by the functions

Q_i(i⁽⁰⁾) = Ƥ(Ƶ_n = i | Ƶ_{n - 1} = i ⁽⁰⁾₁, Ƶ_{n - 2} = i ⁽⁰⁾₂, …) (i ɛ S₁), where i⁽⁰⁾ = (i⁽⁰⁾₁, i⁽⁰⁾₂, …) ranges over infinite sequences from S₁. If i⁽ⁿ⁾ = (i⁽ⁿ⁾₁, i⁽ⁿ⁾₂, …) for n = 1, 2,…, then i⁽ⁿ⁾ → i⁽⁰⁾ means that for each k, i⁽ⁿ⁾_k = i⁽⁰⁾_k for all n sufficiently large.

Given functions Q_i(i⁽⁰⁾) such that

(i) 0 ≤ Q_i(i⁽⁰) ≤ ξ ˂ 1

(ii)D – 1/Ʃ/i = 0 Q_i(i⁽⁰⁾) Ξ 1

(iii) Q_i(i⁽ⁿ⁾) → Q_i(i⁽⁰⁾) whenever i⁽ⁿ⁾ → i⁽⁰⁾,

we prove the existence of a stationary chain of infinite order {Ƶ_n} whose transitions are given by

Ƥ (Ƶ_n = i | Ƶ_{n - 1}, Ƶ_{n - 2}, …) = Q_i(Ƶ_{n - 1}, Ƶ_{n - 2}, …)

With probability 1. The method also yields stationary chains {Ƶ_n} for which (iii) does not hold but whose transition probabilities are, in a sense, “locally Markovian.” These and similar results extend a paper by T.E. Harris [Pac. J. Math., 5 (1955), 707-724].

Included is a new proof of the existence and uniqueness of a stationary absolute distribution for an Nth order Markov chain in which all transitions are possible. This proof allows us to achieve our main results without the use of limit theorem techniques.

Long-term and seasonal patterns in coastal temperature and salinity along the North American west coast

Numerous integrated time series have been assembled that suggest global temperature has been increasing steadily over the last century. ... However, superimposed on the long-term warming trends of these series are decadal-scale fluctuations, periods of slightly increasing and even decreasing temperature followed by rapid increases in temperature. ... In this pilot study, data for 1931-1990 from eight [western North America] coastal stations are examined to test the utility of a state-space statistical model (developed by Dr. Roy Mendelssohn, PFEG) in separating and describing seasonal patterns and long-term trends.

H∞ sampled-data synthesis and related numerical issues

In this paper we present a new, compact derivation of state-space formulae for the so-called discretisation-based solution of the H∞ sampled-data control problem. Our approach is based on the established technique of continuous time-lifting, which is used to isometrically map the continuous-time, linear, periodically time-varying, sampled-data problem to a discretetime, linear, time-invariant problem. State-space formulae are derived for the equivalent, discrete-time problem by solving a set of two-point, boundary-value problems. The formulae accommodate a direct feed-through term from the disturbance inputs to the controlled outputs of the original plant and are simple, requiring the computation of only a single matrix exponential. It is also shown that the resultant formulae can be easily re-structured to give a numerically robust algorithm for computing the state-space matrices. © 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic learning with the EM algorithm for neural networks

In this paper, we derive an EM algorithm for nonlinear state space models. We use it to estimate jointly the neural network weights, the model uncertainty and the noise in the data. In the E-step we apply a forwardbackward Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoother to compute the network weights. For the M-step, we derive expressions to compute the model uncertainty and the measurement noise. We find that the method is intrinsically very powerful, simple and stable.