Alternative ways to estimate change points in multinomial sequences. An application to an authorship attribution problem

The statistical analysis of literary style is the part of stylometry that compares measurable characteristicsin a text that are rarely controlled by the author, with those in other texts. When thegoal is to settle authorship questions, these characteristics should relate to the author’s style andnot to the genre, epoch or editor, and they should be such that their variation between authors islarger than the variation within comparable texts from the same author.For an overview of the literature on stylometry and some of the techniques involved, see for exampleMosteller and Wallace (1964, 82), Herdan (1964), Morton (1978), Holmes (1985), Oakes (1998) orLebart, Salem and Berry (1998).Tirant lo Blanc, a chivalry book, is the main work in catalan literature and it was hailed to be“the best book of its kind in the world” by Cervantes in Don Quixote. Considered by writterslike Vargas Llosa or Damaso Alonso to be the first modern novel in Europe, it has been translatedseveral times into Spanish, Italian and French, with modern English translations by Rosenthal(1996) and La Fontaine (1993). The main body of this book was written between 1460 and 1465,but it was not printed until 1490.There is an intense and long lasting debate around its authorship sprouting from its first edition,where its introduction states that the whole book is the work of Martorell (1413?-1468), while atthe end it is stated that the last one fourth of the book is by Galba (?-1490), after the death ofMartorell. Some of the authors that support the theory of single authorship are Riquer (1990),Chiner (1993) and Badia (1993), while some of those supporting the double authorship are Riquer(1947), Coromines (1956) and Ferrando (1995). For an overview of this debate, see Riquer (1990).Neither of the two candidate authors left any text comparable to the one under study, and thereforediscriminant analysis can not be used to help classify chapters by author. By using sample textsencompassing about ten percent of the book, and looking at word length and at the use of 44conjunctions, prepositions and articles, Ginebra and Cabos (1998) detect heterogeneities that mightindicate the existence of two authors. By analyzing the diversity of the vocabulary, Riba andGinebra (2000) estimates that stylistic boundary to be near chapter 383.Following the lead of the extensive literature, this paper looks into word length, the use of the mostfrequent words and into the use of vowels in each chapter of the book. Given that the featuresselected are categorical, that leads to three contingency tables of ordered rows and therefore tothree sequences of multinomial observations.Section 2 explores these sequences graphically, observing a clear shift in their distribution. Section 3describes the problem of the estimation of a suden change-point in those sequences, in the followingsections we propose various ways to estimate change-points in multinomial sequences; the methodin section 4 involves fitting models for polytomous data, the one in Section 5 fits gamma modelsonto the sequence of Chi-square distances between each row profiles and the average profile, theone in Section 6 fits models onto the sequence of values taken by the first component of thecorrespondence analysis as well as onto sequences of other summary measures like the averageword length. In Section 7 we fit models onto the marginal binomial sequences to identify thefeatures that distinguish the chapters before and after that boundary. Most methods rely heavilyon the use of generalized linear models

Proceso INFORNUT: validación de la fase de filtro-FILNUT--y comparación con otros métodos de detección precoz de desnutrición hospitalaria.

INTRODUCTION According to several series, hospital hyponutrition involves 30-50% of hospitalized patients. The high prevalence justifies the need for early detection from admission. There several classical screening tools that show important limitations in their systematic application in daily clinical practice. OBJECTIVES To analyze the relationship between hyponutrition, detected by our screening method, and mortality, hospital stay, or re-admissions. To analyze, as well, the relationship between hyponutrition and prescription of nutritional support. To compare different nutritional screening methods at admission on a random sample of hospitalized patients. Validation of the INFORNUT method for nutritional screening. MATERIAL AND METHODS In a previous phase from the study design, a retrospective analysis with data from the year 2003 was carried out in order to know the situation of hyponutrition in Virgen de la Victoria Hospital, at Malaga, gathering data from the MBDS (Minimal Basic Data Set), laboratory analysis of nutritional risk (FILNUT filter), and prescription of nutritional support. In the experimental phase, a cross-sectional cohort study was done with a random sample of 255 patients, on May of 2004. Anthropometrical study, Subjective Global Assessment (SGA), Mini-Nutritional Assessment (MNA), Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS), Gassull's method, CONUT and INFORNUT were done. The settings of the INFORNUT filter were: albumin < 3.5 g/dL, and/or total proteins <5 g/dL, and/or prealbumin <18 mg/dL, with or without total lymphocyte count < 1.600 cells/mm3 and/or total cholesterol <180 mg/dL. In order to compare the different methods, a gold standard is created based on the recommendations of the SENPE on anthropometrical and laboratory data. The statistical association analysis was done by the chi-squared test (a: 0.05) and agreement by the k index. RESULTS In the study performed in the previous phase, it is observed that the prevalence of hospital hyponutrition is 53.9%. One thousand six hundred and forty four patients received nutritional support, of which 66.9% suffered from hyponutrition. We also observed that hyponutrition is one of the factors favoring the increase in mortality (hyponourished patients 15.19% vs. non-hyponourished 2.58%), hospital stay (hyponourished patients 20.95 days vs. non-hyponourished 8.75 days), and re-admissions (hyponourished patients 14.30% vs. non-hyponourished 6%). The results from the experimental study are as follows: the prevalence of hyponutrition obtained by the gold standard was 61%, INFORNUT 60%. Agreement levels between INFORNUT, CONUT, and GASSULL are good or very good between them (k: 0.67 INFORNUT with CONUT, and k: 0.94 INFORNUT and GASSULL) and wit the gold standard (k: 0.83; k: 0.64 CONUT; k: 0.89 GASSULL). However, structured tests (SGA, MNA, NRS) show low agreement indexes with the gold standard and laboratory or mixed tests (Gassull), although they show a low to intermediate level of agreement when compared one to each other (k: 0.489 NRS with SGA). INFORNUT shows sensitivity of 92.3%, a positive predictive value of 94.1%, and specificity of 91.2%. After the filer phase, a preliminary report is sent, on which anthropometrical and intake data are added and a Nutritional Risk Report is done. CONCLUSIONS Hyponutrition prevalence in our study (60%) is similar to that found by other authors. Hyponutrition is associated to increased mortality, hospital stay, and re-admission rate. There are no tools that have proven to be effective to show early hyponutrition at the hospital setting without important applicability limitations. FILNUT, as the first phase of the filter process of INFORNUT represents a valid tool: it has sensitivity and specificity for nutritional screening at admission. The main advantages of the process would be early detection of patients with risk for hyponutrition, having a teaching and sensitization function to health care staff implicating them in nutritional assessment of their patients, and doing a hyponutrition diagnosis and nutritional support need in the discharge report that would be registered by the Clinical Documentation Department. Therefore, INFORNUT would be a universal screening method with a good cost-effectiveness ratio.

Secretory immunoglobulin A: well beyond immune exclusion at mucosal surfaces.

At mucosal surfaces, secretory IgA (SIgA) antibodies serve as the first line of defense against microorganisms through a mechanism called immune exclusion that prevents interaction of neutralized antigens with the epithelium. In addition, SIgA plays a role in the immune balance of the epithelial barrier through selective adhesion to M cells in intestinal Peyer's patches. This mediates the transepithelial retro-transport of the antibody and associated antigens from the intestinal lumen to underlying gut-associated organized lymphoid tissue. In Peyer's patches, SIgA-based immune complexes are internalized by underlying antigen-presenting cells, leaving the antigen with masked epitopes, a form that limits the risk of overwhelming the local immune protection system with danger signals. This translates into the onset of mucosal and systemic responses associated with production of anti-inflammatory cytokines and limited activation of antigen-presenting cells. In the gastrointestinal tract, SIgA exhibits thus properties of a neutralizing agent (immune exclusion) and of an immunopotentiator inducing effector immune responses in a noninflammatory context favorable to preserve local homeostasis.

Brote de brucelosis interprovincial por ingesta de queso fresco sin higienizar

Goal: To study an August 2004 outbreak of brucellosis notified in Velez-Rubio (Almeria) and to determine the source of that infection as well as its transmission mechanisms, in addition to proposing preventive measures. Methodology: Descriptive study and paired case controls (three controls were selected for each case). Setting: Health Centers in de Vélez-Rubio (Almeria) and Alcalá de Guadaira (Seville). Population: Suspected/probable case: a person with compatible clinical symptoms and positive brusella agglutination diagnosed between July 2005 and March 2005. Confirmed case: in addition to identifying the causal agent, laboratory test results resulted in a confirmation. Interventions: Report forms, epidemiological surveys, clinical histories, and laboratory tests were used as sources of data. Odds ratios (OR) and confidence intervals were calculated to study the relationship among cases, sources of infection, and transmission mechanisms. The Chi Square test and Yates correction were employed. Results: 10 cases were identified (9 in Almeria and 1 in Seville), 8 of them pobable and 2 confirmed, in persons between the ages of 45 and 81. The symptoms first appeared between the months of May and September 2005. Fever was the most frequent symptom (100%). The OR for the consumption of fresh, non.-pasteurized cheese was 112 (CI 4,48-16968,94), p< 0,001. Infected animals were intervened. Conclusions: The inter-provincial outbreak of brucellosis was confirmed as stemming from the consumption of non-pasteurized cheese sold on the street. The source of infection was identified and the Department of Agriculture carried out the necessary actions.

Estudio piloto sobre el manejo de la fluidoterapia intravenosa en pacientes adultos de un hospital de tercer nivel.

The purpose of intravenous fluid therapy (IFT) is to maintain or restore internal equilibrium by administering fluids and/or different electrolyte components. Its correct use and the prevention of complications arising from their misuse depend on the knowledge of the medical team on this subject. We analyzed this issue in different clinical areas of a tertiary hospital. MATERIAL AND METHODS We performed a descriptive cross-sectional pilot study via a questionnaire given to physicians specializing in internal medicine (IM) and digestive system surgery (SDS) who perform clinical practice in hospital units with unit dose drug dispensing system. We designed an anonymous questionnaire with 25 questions relative to knowledge of theory and practices, as well as the opinion of physicians regarding IFT. We evaluated the association between nominal qualitative variables with the Chi-square or Fisher's exact test. The behavior of the quantitative variables was assessed using the t-student test. The analysis of the data was generated using SAS/STAT, Version 9. RESULTS 28 questionnaires were collected from 13 surgeons and 15 digestive interns. Over 40% of specialists considered further education in IFT a necessity , especially regarding its prescription (SDS: 61.54%, IM: 71.43%). No statistically significant differences were found between the specialties in terms of perceived frequency of complications associated with IFT or in the frequency indication with the exception of hypovolemic shock, which is considered to be more prevalent in gastrointestinal surgery (p = 0.046). 90% of professionals prefer an individualized prescription. Statistically significant differences in terms of scores in the area of knowledge, with IM physicians achieving the highest scores (p = 0.014). There were also differences in attitude but they are not significant (p = 0.162). Knowledge of intravenous fluid increases with years of clinical experience (Spearman correlation coefficient = 0.386, p = 0.047). CONCLUSIONS The professionals who prescribe IFT perceive the need to design IFT training programs, together with the production of guides and consensus protocols.

Sumak Kawsay, or the concept of living well, and perceptions about natural, urban and rural areas: the case of Cuenca (Ecuador)

This research explores critical environmental concepts from the standpoint of political ecology. It contrasts the Ecuadorian Kichua indigenous concept of Sumak Kawsay (i.e., living well), with discourses about natural, urban and rural areas. Sumak Kawsay was included in Ecuador’s 2008 constitution as an alternative to the neoclassical idea of development. This work reveals interesting insights from a variety of social and political viewpoints from both rural and urban areas. The research is based on the medium sized city of Cuenca, which is located in the southern Ecuadorian Andes. We used an adaptation of the Q Method to investigate stakeholders’ perceptions. Four remarkably well-defined viewpoints were revealed. Although these views contrast strongly with Sumak Kawsay, it is possible to transform this paradigm in the foundation of Cuenca’s public policies and institutional structure.

Decreased well-being after job loss : testing omitted causes

Job loss is widely known to lead to a substantial decrease in workers' subjective well-being. Functionalist theories explain this fact by arguing that the fundamental needs that work fulfills are absent during unemployment. Recent evidence from longitudinal studies however contradicts this approach, showing that workers who find a new job do not fully regain their former level of well-being upon reemployment. Therefore other mechanisms must be at work. We suggest that changes in social or economic domains of workers' lives - triggered by job displacement - lead to the observed changes in well-being. Drawing on a unique data set from a survey of workers displaced by plant closure in Switzerland after the financial crisis of 2008, our analysis confirms the previous result that finding a job after displacement does not completely restore workers' pre-displacement level of well-being. The factors that best explain this outcome are changes in social domains, notably changes in workers' job - related social status and their relationships to friends. This result provides valuable insights about the long lasting scars job displacement leaves on workers' lives.

Prevalence, treatment and control of dyslipidaemia in Switzerland: still a long way to go.

BACKGROUND: There is little information regarding the prevalence and management of dyslipidaemia in Switzerland. DESIGN: Cross-sectional population-based study of 3238 women and 2846 men aged 35-75. METHODS: Dyslipidaemia prevalence, treatment and control were defined according to PROCAM guidelines adapted to Switzerland. RESULTS: About 29% of the overall sample presented with dyslipidaemia, of which 39% were treated and 58% of those treated were controlled. Among the 710 patients with personal history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and/or diabetes, 632 (89%) presented with dyslipidaemia, of which 278 (44%) and 134 (21%) patients were treated and adequately controlled, respectively. On multivariate analysis, hypolipidaemic drug treatment was positively related with age and body mass index (P for trend <0.001), and negatively related with smoking status (P for trend <0.002), whereas personal history of CVD and/or diabetes had no effect [odds ratio (OR)=1.12, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.90-1.38]. Adequate control of lipid levels was negatively related with female sex (OR=0.65, 95% CI: 0.45-0.94) and personal history of CVD and/or diabetes (OR=0.42, 95% CI: 0.30-0.59). When personal history of CVD and/or diabetes was replaced by PROCAM risk categories, patients in the highest risk were also less well controlled. CONCLUSION: In this population-based study, one-third of the participants was dyslipidaemic, but less than half was treated and only one-fifth was adequately controlled. The low treatment and control levels among individuals at high risk for CVD calls for a better application of recommendations regarding personal preventive measures.

Effets secondaires meconnus des glucocorticoi'des: prevention et traitement spécifiques requis [Some less well known side effects of glucocorticoids: specific prevention and treatment?]

Steroid treatment is required in many clinical settings and if prolonged can be associated with serious side effects. Certain less well-known side effects may require specific prevention, diagnosis and treatment. The risk of developing hyperglycemia, psychiatric disorders and opportunistic infections associated with immunosuppression is often forgotten. We present herein some evidence on the prevalence, preventive measures and treatment of some of these side effects. Large controlled trials are lacking and do not allow to provide strong recommendations. Nevertheless, we try to provide some suggestions based on a review of the literature.

Small bowel bacterial overgrowth is found in 71% of IBS patients and associated symptoms respond well to Rifaximin in a phase IV trial

Background a nd A ims: The prevalence of small intestinal bowel bacterial o vergrowth (SIBO) i n patients w ith irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) ranges from 43% to 78% as determined by t he lactulose hydrogen breath (LHBT) t est. Although rifaximine, a non-absorbable antibiotic, h as b een able to decrease I BS s ymptoms i n placebo-controlled r andomized trials, these results were not repeated in phase IV studies. We aimed to assess the prevalence of SIBO in an IBS cohort and to evaluate the response to rifaximin. Methods: I BS p atients f ulfilled Rome III criteria, had an absence of alarm symptoms, n ormal f ecal c alproectin, and normal e ndoscopic workup. They underwent lactulose hydrogen breath t esting (LHBT) for SIBO diagnosis. P atients with SIBO were t reated w ith rifaximine tablets f or 14 d ays. Symptoms were a ssessed by q uestionnaires before rifaximin treatment and at week 6. Results: Hundred-fifty IBS patients were enrolled (76% female, mean age 44 ± 16 years), of whom 106 (71%) were diagnosed with SIBO and consequently treated with rifaximine. Rifaximine treatment s ignificantly reduced the following symptoms as assessed by t he s ymptom q uestionnaire: bloating (5.5 ± 2.6 before vs. 3 .6 ± 2.7 after treatment, p <0.001), flatulence (5 ± 2.7 vs. 4 ± 2.7, p = 0.015), diarrhea (2.9 ± 2.4 vs. 2 ± 2.4, p = 0.005), abdominal pain (4.8 ± 2.7 vs. 3.3 ± 2.5, p <0.001) and resulted in improved overall well-being (3.9 ± 2.4 vs. 2.7 ± 2.3, p <0.001). The LHBT was repeated 2-4 weeks after rifaximine treatment in 6 5/93 (70%) patients. Eradication of SIBO was documented in 85% of all patients (55/65). Conclusions: The results o f our phase IV trial i ndicate that a high proportion of IBS p atients t ested positive f or SIBO. I BS symptoms w ere significantly diminished following a 2-week treatment with rifaximine.