Proportionality and Party Success in Europe

This thesis consists of four articles and an introductory section. The main research questions in all the articles are about proportionality and party success in Europe, at European, national or district levels. Proportionality in this thesis denotes the proximity of seat shares parties receive compared to their respective vote shares, after the electoral system’s allocation process. This proportionality can be measured through numerous indices that illustrate either the overall proportionality of an electoral system or a particular election. The correspondence of a single party’s seat shares to its vote shares can also be measured. The overall proportionality is essential in three of the articles (1, 2 and 4), where the system’s performance is studied by means of plots. In article 3, minority party success is measured by advantage-ratios that reveal single party’s winnings or losses in the votes to seat allocation process. The first article asks how proportional are the European parliamentary (EP) electoral systems, how do they compare with results gained from earlier studies and how do the EP electoral systems treat different sized parties. The reasons for different outcomes are looked for in explanations given by traditional electoral studies i.e. electoral system variables. The countries studied (EU15) apply electoral systems that vary in many important aspects, even though a certain amount of uniformity has been aspired to for decades. Since the electoral systems of the EP elections closely resemble the national elections, the same kinds of profiles emerge as in the national elections. The electoral systems indeed treat the parties differentially and six different profile types can be found. The counting method seems to somewhat determine the profile group, but the strongest variables determining the shape of a countries’ profile appears to be the average district magnitude and number of seats allocated to each country. The second article also focuses on overall proportionality performance of an electoral system, but here the focus is on the impact of electoral system changes. I have developed a new method of visualizing some previously used indices and some new indices for this purpose. The aim is to draw a comparable picture of these electoral systems’ changes and their effects. The cases, which illustrate this method, are four elections systems, where a change has occurred in one of the system variables, while the rest remained unchanged. The studied cases include the French, Greek and British European parliamentary systems and the Swedish national parliamentary system. The changed variables are electoral type (plurality changed to PR in the UK), magnitude (France splitting the nationwide district into eight smaller districts), legal threshold (Greece introducing a three percent threshold) and counting method (d’Hondt was changed to modified Sainte-Laguë in Sweden). The radar plots from elections after and before the changes are drawn for all country cases. When quantifying the change, the change in the plots area that is created has also been calculated. Using these radar plots we can observe that the change in electoral system type, magnitude, and also to some extent legal threshold had an effect on overall proportionality and accessibility for small parties, while the change between the two highest averages counting method had none. The third article studies the success minority parties have had in nine electoral systems in European heterogeneous countries. This article aims to add more motivation as to why we should care how different sized parties are treated by the electoral systems. Since many of the parties that aspire to represent minorities in European countries are small, the possibilities for small parties are highlighted. The theory of consociational (or power-sharing) democracy suggests that, in heterogeneous societies, a proportional electoral system will provide the fairest treatment of minority parties. The OSCE Lund Recommendations propose a number of electoral system features, which would improve minority representation. In this article some party variables, namely the unity of the minority parties and the geographical concentration of the minorities were included among possible explanations. The conclusions are that the central points affecting minority success were indeed these non-electoral system variables rather than the electoral system itself. Moreover, the size of the party was a major factor governing success in all the systems investigated; large parties benefited in all the studied electoral systems. In the fourth article the proportionality profiles are again applied, but this time to district level results in Finnish parliamentary elections. The level of proportionality distortion is also studied by way of indices. The average magnitudes during the studied periodrange from 7.5 to 26.2 in the Finnish electoral districts and this opens up unequal opportunities for parties in different districts and affects the shape of the profiles. The intra-country case allows the focus to be placed on the effect of district magnitude, since all other electoral systems are kept constant in an intra-country study. The time span in the study is from 1962 to 2007, i.e. the time that the districts have largely been the same geographically. The plots and indices tell the same story, district magnitude and electoral alliances matter. The district magnitude is connected to the overall proportionality of the electoral districts according to both indices, and the profiles are, as expected, also closer to perfect proportionality in large districts. Alliances have helped some small parties to gain a much higher seat share than their respective vote share and these successes affect some of the profiles. The profiles also show a consistent pattern of benefits for the small parties who ally with the larger parties.

Spatial pattern of landslides in Swiss Rhone valley

The present study analyses the spatial pattern of quaternary gravitational slope deformations (GSD) and historical/present-day instabilities (HPI) inventoried in the Swiss Rhone Valley. The main objective is to test if these events are clustered (spatial attraction) or randomly distributed (spatial independency). Moreover, analogies with the cluster behaviour of earthquakes inventoried in the same area were examined. The Ripley's K-function was applied to measure and test for randomness. This indicator allows describing the spatial pattern of a point process at increasing distance values. To account for the non-constant intensity of the geological phenomena, a modification of the K-function for inhomogeneous point processes was adopted. The specific goal is to explore the spatial attraction (i.e. cluster behaviour) among landslide events and between gravitational slope deformations and earthquakes. To discover if the two classes of instabilities (GSD and HPI) are spatially independently distributed, the cross K-function was computed. The results show that all the geological events under study are spatially clustered at a well-defined distance range. GSD and HPI show a similar pattern distribution with clusters in the range 0.75?9 km. The cross K-function reveals an attraction between the two classes of instabilities in the range 0?4 km confirming that HPI are more prone to occur within large-scale slope deformations. The K-function computed for GSD and earthquakes indicates that both present a cluster tendency in the range 0?10 km, suggesting that earthquakes could represent a potential predisposing factor which could influence the GSD distribution.

The mediterranean diet pattern and its main components are associated with lower plasma concentrations of tumor necrosis factor receptor 60 in patients at high risk for cardiovascular disease

Adherence to aMediterranean diet (MD) is associated with a reduced risk of coronary heart disease. However, themolecular mechanisms involved are not fully understood. The aim of this studywas to compare the effects of 2MD with those of a lowfat- diet (LFD) on circulating inflammatory biomarkers related to atherogenesis. A total of 516 participants included in the PreventionwithMediterraneanDiet Studywere randomized into 3 intervention groups [MD supplementedwith virgin olive oil (MD-VOO); MD supplemented with mixed nuts (MD-Nuts); and LFD]. At baseline and after 1 y, participants completed FFQ and adherence to MD questionnaires, and plasma concentrations of inflammatory markers including intercellular adhesion molecule-1(ICAM-1), IL-6, and 2 TNF receptors (TNFR60 and TNFR80) were measured by ELISA. At 1 y, the MD groups had lower plasma concentrations of IL-6, TNFR60, and TNFR80 (P , 0.05), whereas ICAM-1, TNFR60, and TNFR80 concentrations increased in the LFD group (P , 0.002). Due to between-group differences, participants in the 2 MD groups had lower plasma concentrations of ICAM-1, IL-6, TNFR60, and TNFR80 compared to those in the LFD group (P # 0.028). When participants were categorized in tertiles of 1-y changes in the consumption of selected foods, those in the highest tertile of virgin olive oil (VOO) and vegetable consumption had a lower plasma TNFR60 concentration compared with those in tertile 1 (P,0.02).Moreover, the only changes in consumption thatwere associated with 1-y changes in the geometricmean TNFR60 concentrations were those of VOO and vegetables (P = 0.01). This study suggests that a MD reduces TNFR concentrations in patients at high cardiovascular risk.

Pattern of injury with a graded excitotoxic insult and ensuing chronic medial septal damage in the rat brain

Brain damage caused by an acute injury depends on the initial severity of the injury and the time elapsed after the injury. To determine whether these two variables activate common mechanisms, we compared the response of the rat medial septum to insult with a graded series of concentrations of a-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxazole propionic acid (AMPA) with the time-course effects of a low dose of AMPA. For this purpose we conducted a dose-response study at concentrations of AMPA between 0.27 and 10.8 nmol to measure atrophy of the septal area, losses of cholinergic and GABAergic neurons, astroglial and microglial reactions, and calcification. Cholinergic neurons, whose loss paralleled the degree of septal atrophy produced by AMPA, are more sensitive than GABAergic neurons to the injury produced by AMPA. At doses of AMPA above 2.7 nmol, calcification and the degree of microglial reaction increased only in the GABAergic region of the septal area, whereas atrophy and neuronal loss reached a plateau. We chose the 2.7-nmol dose of AMPA to determine how these parameters were modified between 4 days and 6 months after injection. We found that atrophy and neuronal loss increased progressively through the 6-month study period, whereas astrogliosis ceased to be observed after 1 month, and calcium precipitates were never detected. We conclude that septal damage does not increase with the intensity of an excitotoxic insult. Rather, it progresses continuously after the insult. Because these two situations involve different mechanisms, short-term paradigms are inappropriate for interpreting the pathogenic mechanisms responsible for long-term neurodegenerative processes.

Cell fusion reprogramming leads to a specific hepatic expression pattern during mouse bone marrow derived hepatocyte formation In Vivo

The fusion of bone marrow (BM) hematopoietic cells with hepatocytes to generate BM derived hepatocytes (BMDH) is a natural process, which is enhanced in damaged tissues. However, the reprogramming needed to generate BMDH and the identity of the resultant cells is essentially unknown. In a mouse model of chronic liver damage, here we identify a modification in the chromatin structure of the hematopoietic nucleus during BMDH formation, accompanied by the loss of the key hematopoietic transcription factor PU.1/Sfpi1 (SFFV proviral integration 1) and gain of the key hepatic transcriptional regulator HNF-1A homeobox A (HNF-1A/Hnf1a). Through genome-wide expression analysis of laser captured BMDH, a differential gene expression pattern was detected and the chromatin changes observed were confirmed at the level of chromatin regulator genes. Similarly, Tranforming Growth Factor-β1 (TGF-β1) and neurotransmitter (e.g. Prostaglandin E Receptor 4 [Ptger4]) pathway genes were over-expressed. In summary, in vivo BMDH generation is a process in which the hematopoietic cell nucleus changes its identity and acquires hepatic features. These BMDHs have their own cell identity characterized by an expression pattern different from hematopoietic cells or hepatocytes. The role of these BMDHs in the liver requires further investigation.

Post-partum persistence of abnormal circadian pattern of blood pressure after preeclampsia [109-POS]

OBJECTIVES: Blunted nocturnal dip of blood pressure (BP) and reversed circadian rhythm have been described in preeclampsia (PE). Non-dipper status and preeclampsia are both associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease later in life. Complete recovery of BP in PE is reported to occur over a variable period of time. Twenty-four hours-ambulatory blood pressure measurement (ABPM) in the post-partum follow-up after a PE has not been described. The aim of this study was to assess 24h-ambulatory blood pressure pattern after a PE and to determine the prevalence of non-dipper status, nocturnal hypertension, white coat hypertension and masked hypertension. METHODS: This is an observational, prospective study on women who suffered from a preeclampsia. A 24h-ABPM was done 6 weeks post-partum at the Hypertension Unit of the University Hospitals of Geneva, concomitantly with a clinical and biological evaluation. RESULTS: Forty-five women were included in a preliminary analysis. Mean age was 33±6years, 57.3% were Caucasian, mean BMI before pregnancy was 24±5kg/m(2). Office and ambulatory BP are shown in Table 1. Prevalence of nocturnal hypertension was high and half of the women had no nocturnal dipping. The diagnosis of hypertension based on office BP was discordant with the diagnosis based on ABPM in 25% of women. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of increased nighttime BP and abnormal BP pattern is high at 6weeks post-partum in preeclamptic women. Early assessment of BP with ABPM after preeclampsia allows an early identification of women with persistent circadian abnormalities who might be at increased risk. It also provides a more accurate assessment than office BP. DISCLOSURES: A. Ditisheim: None. B. Ponte: None. G. Wuerzner: None. M. Burnier: None. M. Boulvain: None. A. Pechère-Bertschi: None.

Pancreatic adenocarcinoma: the impact of preneoplastic lesion pattern on survival.

Pancreatic adenocarcinoma is associated with a very poor prognosis, characterized with a 5-year survival rate of only 5%. Surgery is the only curative treatment for selected patients. Nevertheless, recurrence is very frequent. Identifying prognostic factors is thus warranted. Like numerous other tumors, adenocarcinomas are preceded by preneoplastic lesions. The role and the impact of these lesions remain unclear. This study aimed to assess the impact of the preneoplastic lesion pattern and histo-morphological features, on survival after pancreatic resection. Thirty-five patients who underwent pancreatic resection for pancreatic adenocarcinoma were identified from a prospective database of a single center, between 2003 and 2008. We considered demographics, tumor characteristics and type of treatment. The major outcome was survival. Analyzes were separated into two groups, according to the preneoplastic lesions: Pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia (PanIN)-related carcinomas and intracanalar papillary mucinous neoplasia (IPMN)-related carcinomas. The former were more frequent, accounting for 63% (22/35). Moreover, they displayed more aggressive features, with a higher tumor stage (p = 0.01) and higher rate of positive lymph nodes (p = 0.019). Lymphatic (p = 0.009) and perinervous (p = 0.019) invasions were also more frequent. Survival was negatively influenced by PanIN preneoplastic lesions (p = 0.015), T3-4 tumor stage (p = 0.038), positive lymph nodes (p = 0.044), lymphatic (p = 0.019) and vascular (p = 0.029) invasions. Pancreatic adenocarcinoma displays different behavior according to its preneoplastic lesion. Indeed, PanIN-related adenocarcinoma showed more aggressive features and lower survival rate. Preneoplastic lesions may represent predictive factors for survival. Their role and predictive value should be investigated more thoroughly.

Profile, cost and pattern of prescriptions for polymedicated patients in Catalonia, Spain

OBJECTIVES: Polypharmacy is one of the main management issues in public health policies because of its financial impact and the increasing number of people involved. The polymedicated population according to their demographic and therapeutic profile and the cost for the public healthcare system were characterised. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Primary healthcare in Barcelona Health Region, Catalonia, Spain (5 105 551 inhabitants registered). PARTICIPANTS: All insured polymedicated patients. Polymedicated patients were those with a consumption of ≥16 drugs/month. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES: The study variables were related to age, gender and medication intake obtained from the 2008 census and records of prescriptions dispensed in pharmacies and charged to the public health system. RESULTS: There were 36 880 polymedicated patients (women: 64.2%; average age: 74.5±10.9 years). The total number of prescriptions billed in 2008 was 2 266 830 (2 272 920 total package units). The most polymedicated group (up to 40% of the total prescriptions) was patients between 75 and 84 years old. The average number of prescriptions billed monthly per patient was 32±2, with an average cost of 452.7±27.5. The total cost of those prescriptions corresponded to 2% of the drug expenditure in Catalonia. The groups N, C, A, R and M represented 71.4% of the total number of drug package units dispensed to polymedicated patients. Great variability was found between the medication profiles of men and women, and between age groups; greater discrepancies were found in paediatric patients (5-14 years) and the elderly (≥65 years). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides essential information to take steps towards rational drug use and a structured approach in the polymedicated population in primary healthcare.

Framework for Traffic Pattern Identification: Required Step for Short-term Forecasting

In the world of transport management, the term ‘anticipation’ is gradually replacing ‘reaction’. Indeed, the ability to forecast traffic evolution in a network should ideally form the basis for many traffic management strategies and multiple ITS applications. Real-time prediction capabilities are therefore becoming a concrete need for the management of networks, both for urban and interurban environments, and today’s road operator has increasingly complex and exacting requirements. Recognising temporal patterns in traffic or the manner in which sequential traffic events evolve over time have been important considerations in short-term traffic forecasting. However, little work has been conducted in the area of identifying or associating traffic pattern occurrence with prevailing traffic conditions. This paper presents a framework for detection pattern identification based on finite mixture models using the EM algorithm for parameter estimation. The computation results have been conducted taking into account the traffic data available in an urban network.

Coherent patterns and self-induced diffraction of electrons on a thin nonlinear layer

Electron scattering on a thin layer where the potential depends self-consistently on the wave function has been studied. When the amplitude of the incident wave exceeds a certain threshold, a soliton-shaped brightening (darkening) appears on the layer causing diffraction of the wave. Thus the spontaneously formed transverse pattern can be viewed as a self-induced nonlinear quantum screen. Attractive or repulsive nonlinearities result in different phase shifts of the wave function on the screen, which give rise to quite different diffraction patterns. Among others, the nonlinearity can cause self-focusing of the incident wave into a beam, splitting in two "beams," single or double traces with suppressed reflection or transmission, etc.

Nontypable Haemophilus influenzae displays a prevalent surface structure molecular pattern in clinical isolates.

Non-typable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi) is a Gram negative pathogen that causes acute respiratory infections and is associated with the progression of chronic respiratory diseases. Previous studies have established the existence of a remarkable genetic variability among NTHi strains. In this study we show that, in spite of a high level of genetic heterogeneity, NTHi clinical isolates display a prevalent molecular feature, which could confer fitness during infectious processes. A total of 111 non-isogenic NTHi strains from an identical number of patients, isolated in two distinct geographical locations in the same period of time, were used to analyse nine genes encoding bacterial surface molecules, and revealed the existence of one highly prevalent molecular pattern (lgtF+, lic2A+, lic1D+, lic3A+, lic3B+, siaA−, lic2C+, ompP5+, oapA+) displayed by 94.6% of isolates. Such a genetic profile was associated with a higher bacterial resistance to serum mediated killing and enhanced adherence to human respiratory epithelial cells.

Bowing the violin : a case study for auditory-motor pattern modelling in the context of music performance

This project addresses methodological and technological challenges in the development of multi-modal data acquisition and analysis methods for the representation of instrumental playing technique in music performance through auditory-motor patterning models. The case study is violin playing: a multi-modal database of violin performances has been constructed by recording different musicians while playing short exercises on different violins. The exercise set and recording protocol have been designed to sample the space defined by dynamics (from piano to forte) and tone (from sul tasto to sul ponticello), for each bow stroke type being played on each of the four strings (three different pitches per string) at two different tempi. The data, containing audio, video, and motion capture streams, has been processed and segmented to facilitate upcoming analyses. From the acquired motion data, the positions of the instrument string ends and the bow hair ribbon ends are tracked and processed to obtain a number of bowing descriptors suited for a detailed description and analysis of the bow motion patterns taking place during performance. Likewise, a number of sound perceptual attributes are computed from the audio streams. Besides the methodology and the implementation of a number of data acquisition tools, this project introduces preliminary results from analyzing bowing technique on a multi-modal violin performance database that is unique in its class. A further contribution of this project is the data itself, which will be made available to the scientific community through the repovizz platform.

Virulence pattern of Pyricularia grisea isolates from farmers' fields on newly released upland rice cultivars

The virulence pattern of the isolates of Pyricularia grisea from commercial fields of the upland rice (Oryza sativa) cultivars 'Primavera' and 'BRS Bonança' was analyzed. A hundred and seventy monoconidial isolates of the pathogen virulent to 'Primavera' and 139 to 'BRS Bonança' collected from eight fields, during two years (2001-2003) were tested, under greenhouse conditions, on six newly released rice cultivars. Differences in virulence pattern were observed in pathogenic populations of 'Primavera' and 'BRS Bonança'. Isolates with virulence to improved cultivars were common in samples from farmers' fields in the absence of aloinfection. The virulence frequency of P. grisea isolates collected from 'Primavera'' to cultivars 'BRS Vencedora', 'BRS Colosso', 'BRS Liderança', 'BRS Soberana', 'BRS Curinga' and 'BRS Talento', was high in descending order. On the other hand, in the fungus population of 'BRS BRS Bonança' virulence frequency was high in 'BRS Talento', followed by 'BRS Curinga', 'BRS Vencedora', 'BRS Liderança', 'BRS Colosso' and 'BRS Soberana'. While virulence to 'BRS Talento' was rare among isolates from 'Primavera', it was most frequent in isolates of 'BRS Bonança'. The six improved rice cultivars permitted to differentiating agriculturally important virulences in the pathogen population which can be utilized in selecting breeding lines for specific resistance, in rice blast improvement program.