891 resultados para soil critical level
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Microcoleus vaginatus Gom., the dominant species in biological soil crusts (BSCs) in desert regions, plays a significant role in maintaining the BSC structure and function. The BSC quality is commonly assessed by the chlorophyll a content, thickness, and compressive strength. Here, we have studied the effect of different proportions of M. vaginatus, collected from the Gurbantunggut Desert in northwestern China, on the BSC structure and function under laboratory conditions. We found that when M. vaginatus was absent in the BSC, the BSC coverage, quantified by the percentage of BSC area to total land surface area, was low with a chlorophyll a content of 4.77 x 10(-2) mg g(-1) dry soil, a thickness of 0.86 mm, and a compressive strength of 12.21 Pa. By increasing the percentage of M. vaginatus in the BSC, the BSC coverage, chlorophyll a content, crust thickness, and compressive strength all significantly increased (P < 0.01). The maximum chlorophyll a content (13.12 mg g(-1)dry soil), the highest crust thickness, and the compressive strength (1.48 mm and 36.60 Pa, respectively) occurred when the percentage of inoculated M. vaginatus reached 80% with a complex network of filaments under scanning electron microscope. The BSC quality indicated by the above variables, however, declined when the BSC was composed of pure M. vaginatus (monoculture). In addition, we found that secretion of filaments and polymer, which stick sands together in the BSC, increased remarkably with the increase of the dominant species until the percentage of M. vaginatus reached 80%. Our results suggest that not only the dominant species but also the accompanying taxa are critical for maintaining the structure and functions of the BSC and thus the stability of the BSC ecosystems.
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A method for the determination of long and short chain free fatty acids (FFAs), using 1-[2-(ptoluenesulfonate)-ethyll-2-phenylimidazole-[4,5-f-9,10-phenanthrene (TSPP) as labeling reagent, has been developed. Identification of FFA derivatives was carried out by HPLC-MS with atmospheric pressure chemical ionization (APCI) in positive ion mode. Gradient elution on an Agilent Eclipse XDB-C-8 column gave good separation of the derivatives. Excellent linear responses were observed and good compositional data could be obtained from as little as 200 mg of bryophyte plants and soil samples. Facile TSPP derivatization coupled with HPLC-APCI-MS analysis allowed the development of a highly sensitive method for the quantitative analysis of trace level of FFAs from biological and natural environmental samples.
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A full understanding of failure mechanism, critical hydrological condition, and process of mobilization and deposition of a landslide is essential for optimal design of stabilization measure and forecasting of landslide hazard. This requires a quantitative study of hydrological response of a slope to rainfall through field monitoring, laboratory test and numerical modelling. At 13:40 on September 18, 2002, a fill slope failed following a period of prolonged rain in Shenzhen, resulting in 5 fatalities and 31 injuries. The failed mass with a volume about 2.5×104m3 traveled about 140m on level ground. Field monitoring, laboratory test, theoretical analysis and numerical modelling were carried out to undestand the hydrological response and failure mechanism of this fill slope. This thesis mainly focuses on the following aspects: (1) The hydrological responses and failure processes of slopes under rainfall infiltration were reviewed. Firstly, the factors influencing on the hydrological responses of slopes were analysed. Secondly, the change of stress state of slope soil and modelling methods of slope failure under rainfall infiltration were reviewed. (2) The characteristics of the Yangbaodi landslide and associated rainfall triggering the failure were presented. The failure was characterized by shallow flowslide, due to an increase of ground water table caused by rainfall infiltration. (3) A fully automated instrumentation was carried out to monitor rainfall, and saturated – unsaturated hydrological response of the fill slope, using a raingauge, piezometers, tensiometers and moisture probes. A conceptual hydrogeological model was presented based on field monitoring and borehole data. Analysis of monitoring data showed that the high pore water pressure in fill slope was caused by upward flow of semiconfined groundwater in the moderately decomposed granite. (4) Laboratory and in-situ testing was performed to study the physical and mechanical properties of fills. Isotropically consolidated undrained compression tests and anisotropically consolidated constant shear stress tests were carried out to understand the failure mechanism of the fill slope. It is indicated that loosely compacted soil is of strain-softening behaviour under undrained conditions, accompanied with a rapid increase in excess pore water pressure. In anisotropically consolidated constant shear stress tests, a very small axial strain was required to induce the failure and the excess pore water pressure increased quickly at failure. This indicated that static liquefaction caused by rise in groundwater table due to rainfall infiltration occurred. (5) The hydraulic conductivity of the highly and moderately decomposed granite was estimated using monitering data of pore water pressure. A saturated – unsaturated flow was modeled to study the hydrological response of the fill slope using rainfall records. It was observed that the lagged failure was due to the geological conditions and the discrepancy of hydraulic conductivity of slope soils. The hydraulic conductivity of moderately decomposed granite is relatively higher than the other materials, resulting in a semiconfied groundwater flow in the moderately decomposed granite, and subsequent upward flow into the upper fill layer. When the ground water table in the fill layer was increased to the critical state, the fill slope failed. (6) Numerical exercises were conducted to replay the failure process of the fill slope, based on field monitoring, laboratory and in-situ testing. It was found that the fill slope was mobilized by a rapid transfer of the concentrated shear stress. The movement of failure mass was characterized by viscosity fluid with a gradual increase in velocity. The failure process, including mobilization and subsequent movement and deposition, was studied using numerical methods.
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Carbon is an essential element for life, food and energy. It is also a key element in the greenhouse gases and therefore plays a vital role in climatic changes. The rapid increase in atmospheric concentration of CO_2 over the past 150 years, reaching current concentrations of about 370 ppmv, corresponds with combustion of fossii fuels since the beginning of the industrial age. Conversion of forested land to agricultural use has also redistributed carbon from plants and soils to the atmosphere. These human activities have significantly altered the global carbon cycle. Understanding the consequences of these activities in the coming decades is critical for formulating economic, energy, technology, trade, and security policies that will affect civilization for generations. Under the auspices of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), several large international scientific efforts are focused on elucidating the various aspects of the global carbon cycle of the past decade. It is only possible to balance the global carbon cycle for the 1990s if there is net carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems of around 2 Pg C/a. There are now some independent, direct evidences for the existence of such a sink. Policymarkers involved in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN-FCCC) are striving to reach consensuses on a 'safe path' for future emissions, the credible predictions on where and how long the terrestrial sink will either persist at its current level, or grow/decline in the future, are important to advice the policy process. The changes of terrestrial carbon storage depend not only on human activities, but also on biogeochemical and climatological processes and their interaction with the carbon cycles. In this thesis, the climate-induced changes and human-induced changes of carbon storage in China since the past 20,000 years are examined. Based on the data of the soil profiles investigated during China's Second National Soil Survey (1979-1989), the forest biomass measured during China's Fourth National Forest Resource Inventory (1989-1993), the grass biomass investigated during the First National Grassland Resource Survey (1980-1991), and the data collected from a collection of published literatures, the current terrestrial carbon storage in China is estimated to -144.1 Pg C, including -136.8 Pg C in soil and -7.3 Pg C in vegetation. The soil organic (SOC) and inorganic carbon (SIC) storage are -78.2 Pg C and -58.6 Pg C, respectively. In the vegetation reservoir, the forest carbon storage is -5.3 Pg C, and the other of-1.4 Pg C is in the grassland. Under the natural conditions, the SOC, SIC, forest and grassland carbon storage are -85.3 Pg C, -62.6 Pg C, -24.5 Pg C and -5.3 Pg C, respectively. Thus, -29.6 Pg C organic carbon has been lost due to land use with a decrease of -20.6%. At the same time, the SIC storage also has been decreased by -4.0 Pg C (-6.4%). These suggest that human activity has caused significant carbon loss in terrestrial carbon storage of China, especially in the forest ecosystem (-76% loss). Using the Paleocarbon Model (PCM) developed by Wu et al. in this paper, total terrestrial organic carbon storage in China in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was -114.8 Pg C, including -23.1 Pg C in vegetation and -86.7 Pg C in soil. At the Middle Holocene (MH), the vegetation, soil and total carbon were -37.3 Pg C, -93.9 Pg C and -136.0 Pg C, respectively. This implies a gain of-21.2 Pg C in the terrestrial carbon storage from LGM to HM mainly due to the temperature increase. However, a loss of-14.4 Pg C of terrestrial organic carbon occurred in China under the current condition (before 1850) compared with the MH time, mainly due to the precipitation decrease associated with the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon. These results also suggest that the terrestrial ecosystem in China has a substantial potential in the restoration of carbon storage. This might be expected to provide an efficient way to mitigate the greenhouse warming through land management practices. Assuming that half of the carbon loss in the degraded terrestrial ecosystem in current forest and grass areas are restored during the next 50 years or so, the terrestrial ecosystem in China may sequestrate -12.0 Pg of organic carbon from the atmosphere, which represents a considerable offset to the industry's CO2 emission. If the ' Anthropocene' Era will be another climate optimum like MH due to the greenhouse effect, the sequestration would be increased again by -4.3 - 9.0 Pg C in China.
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We review the progress made in computational vision, as represented by Marr's approach, in the last fifteen years. First, we briefly outline computational theories developed for low, middle and high-level vision. We then discuss in more detail solutions proposed to three representative problems in vision, each dealing with a different level of visual processing. Finally, we discuss modifications to the currently established computational paradigm that appear to be dictated by the recent developments in vision.
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Offshore wind turbines supported on monopile foundations are dynamically sensitive because the overall natural frequencies of these structures are close to the different forcing frequencies imposed upon them. The structures are designed for an intended life of 25 to 30 years, but little is known about their long term behaviour. To study their long term behaviour, a series of laboratory tests were conducted in which a scaled model wind turbine supported on a monopile in kaolin clay was subjected to between 32,000 and 172,000 cycles of horizontal loading and the changes in natural frequency and damping of the model were monitored. The experimental results are presented using a non-dimensional framework based on an interpretation of the governing mechanics. The change in natural frequency was found to be strongly dependent on the shear strain level in the soil next to the pile. Practical guidance for choosing the diameter of monopile is suggested based on element test results using the concept of volumetric threshold shear strain.
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This dissertation assesses from an under-explored angle the enduring contention over Travellers’ ethnic recognition in the Republic of Ireland, particularly over the last decade. The novelty of this study concerns not only its specific focus on and engagement with the debate on ‘Traveller ethnicity’ among Traveller activists. It also pertains to the examination of Travellers’ arguments for and against ethnicity in light of critical theorisations as well as insights from identity politics. Furthermore, the adoption of a Critical Discourse Analytical framework offers new perspectives to this controversy and its potential implications. Finally, this thesis’ relevance extends beyond the contention on ‘Traveller ethnicity’ in itself. It also draws attention to the complex dynamics of colonisation and appropriation between the global and the local. Particularly, it points to the interplay between international human rights discourses and the local ones, formulated by NGOs struggling for equality. In this way it sheds light on more general issues such as the dialectical potential of human rights discourses: the benefits and pitfalls of framing recognition claims in the legalistic terms of human rights. In this study it is argued that the contention on ‘Traveller ethnicity’ defies a simplistic polarisation between Irish Travellers and the Irish State since it has been simultaneously played out within the Travelling community. Specifically, this study explores how ‘Traveller ethnicity’ has been introduced, embraced, promoted and contested within Traveller politics to the point of becoming a hotly debated and divisive issue among Traveller activists and at the heart of the community itself. Putting Traveller activists centre-stage, their discourses for and against ‘Traveller ethnicity’ are examined and assessed against one another and their potential implications for Traveller politics, policies and identities are pointed out. Contending discourses are historically contextualised as the product of specific structural, material and discursive configurations of power and socio-economic relations within Irish society. Discourses for and against ‘Traveller ethnicity’ are assessed as being significant beyond the representational level. They are regarded as contributing to dialectically constitute Travellers’ ways of being, representing and acting. Furthermore these discourses are considered as sites and means of power struggles, whose stakes are not only words, but relate to issues of power and leadership within the Travelling community; adjudications over material resources; the adoption of certain policy approaches over others; and, finally, the consolidation of certain subject positions over others for Travellers to draw upon and relate to mainstream society. This study highlights an ongoing ideological struggle for the naturalisation of ‘Traveller ethnicity’ as a self-evident ‘fact’, which involves no active choice by Travellers themselves. Overall, ‘Traveller ethnicity’ appears to constitute an enduring source of dilemmas for the Travelling community. These revolve around the contradictory potential of ethnicity claims-making —both its perils and advantages— and its status as a potent political strategic resource that can both challenge and reinforce existing power relations, policies and identities.
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This thesis traces a genealogy of the discourse of mathematics education reform in Ireland at the beginning of the twenty first century at a time when the hegemonic political discourse is that of neoliberalism. It draws on the work of Michel Foucault to identify the network of power relations involved in the development of a single case of curriculum reform – in this case Project Maths. It identifies the construction of an apparatus within the fields of politics, economics and education, the elements of which include institutions like the OECD and the Government, the bureaucracy, expert groups and special interest groups, the media, the school, the State, state assessment and international assessment. Five major themes in educational reform emerge from the analysis: the arrival of neoliberal governance in Ireland; the triumph of human capital theory as the hegemonic educational philosophy here; the dominant role of OECD/PISA and its values in the mathematics education discourse in Ireland; the fetishisation of western scientific knowledge and knowledge as commodity; and the formation of a new kind of subjectivity, namely the subjectivity of the young person as a form of human-capital-to-be. In particular, it provides a critical analysis of the influence of OECD/PISA on the development of mathematics education policy here – especially on Project Maths curriculum, assessment and pedagogy. It unpacks the arguments in favour of curriculum change and lays bare their ideological foundations. This discourse contextualises educational change as occurring within a rapidly changing economic environment where the concept of the State’s economic aspirations and developments in science, technology and communications are reshaping both the focus of business and the demands being put on education. Within this discourse, education is to be repurposed and its consequences measured against the paradigm of the Knowledge Economy – usually characterised as the inevitable or necessary future of a carefully defined present.
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© 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V.Throughout the southern US, past forest management practices have replaced large areas of native forests with loblolly pine plantations and have resulted in changes in forest response to extreme weather conditions. However, uncertainty remains about the response of planted versus natural species to drought across the geographical range of these forests. Taking advantage of a cluster of unmanaged stands (85-130year-old hardwoods) and managed plantations (17-20year-old loblolly pine) in coastal and Piedmont areas of North Carolina, tree water use, cavitation resistance, whole-tree hydraulic (Ktree) and stomatal (Gs) conductances were measured in four sites covering representative forests growing in the region. We also used a hydraulic model to predict the resilience of those sites to extreme soil drying. Our objectives were to determine: (1) if Ktree and stomatal regulation in response to atmospheric and soil droughts differ between species and sites; (2) how ecosystem type, through tree water use, resistance to cavitation and rooting profiles, affects the water uptake limit that can be reached under drought; and (3) the influence of stand species composition on critical transpiration that sets a functional water uptake limit under drought conditions. The results show that across sites, water stress affected the coordination between Ktree and Gs. As soil water content dropped below 20% relative extractable water, Ktree declined faster and thus explained the decrease in Gs and in its sensitivity to vapor pressure deficit. Compared to branches, the capability of roots to resist high xylem tension has a great impact on tree-level water use and ultimately had important implications for pine plantations resistance to future summer droughts. Model simulations revealed that the decline in Ktree due to xylem cavitation aggravated the effects of soil drying on tree transpiration. The critical transpiration rate (Ecrit), which corresponds to the maximum rate at which transpiration begins to level off to prevent irreversible hydraulic failure, was higher in managed forest plantations than in their unmanaged counterparts. However, even with this higher Ecrit, the pine plantations operated very close to their critical leaf water potentials (i.e. to their permissible water potentials without total hydraulic failure), suggesting that intensively managed plantations are more drought-sensitive and can withstand less severe drought than natural forests.
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Software-based control of life-critical embedded systems has become increasingly complex, and to a large extent has come to determine the safety of the human being. For example, implantable cardiac pacemakers have over 80,000 lines of code which are responsible for maintaining the heart within safe operating limits. As firmware-related recalls accounted for over 41% of the 600,000 devices recalled in the last decade, there is a need for rigorous model-driven design tools to generate verified code from verified software models. To this effect, we have developed the UPP2SF model-translation tool, which facilitates automatic conversion of verified models (in UPPAAL) to models that may be simulated and tested (in Simulink/Stateflow). We describe the translation rules that ensure correct model conversion, applicable to a large class of models. We demonstrate how UPP2SF is used in themodel-driven design of a pacemaker whosemodel is (a) designed and verified in UPPAAL (using timed automata), (b) automatically translated to Stateflow for simulation-based testing, and then (c) automatically generated into modular code for hardware-level integration testing of timing-related errors. In addition, we show how UPP2SF may be used for worst-case execution time estimation early in the design stage. Using UPP2SF, we demonstrate the value of integrated end-to-end modeling, verification, code-generation and testing process for complex software-controlled embedded systems. © 2014 ACM.
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Design for manufacture of system-in-package (SiP) structures is dependent on a number of physical processes that affect the final quality of the package in terms of its performance and reliability. Solder joints are key structures in a SiP and their behavior can be the critical factor in terms of reliability. This paper discusses the results from a research programme on design for manufacturing of system in package (SiP) technologies. The focus of the paper is on thermo-mechanical modelling of solder joints. This includes the behavior of the joints during testing plus some important insights into the reflow process and how physical phenomena taking place at the assembly stage can affect solder joint behavior. Finite element analysis of a numerical model of an SiP structure with various design parameters is discussed. The goal of this analysis is to identify the most promising combination of design parameters which guarantee longer lifetime of the solder joints and hence the SiP component. The parameters that were studied are the size of the package (i.e. number of solder joints per row), the presence of the underfill and/or the reinforcement as well as the thickness of the passive die. Discussion was also provided on phenomena that take place during the reflow process where the solder joints are formed. In particular, the formation of intermetallics at the solder-pad interfaces
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In this paper, we shall critically examine a special class of graph matching algorithms that follow the approach of node-similarity measurement. A high-level algorithm framework, namely node-similarity graph matching framework (NSGM framework), is proposed, from which, many existing graph matching algorithms can be subsumed, including the eigen-decomposition method of Umeyama, the polynomial-transformation method of Almohamad, the hubs and authorities method of Kleinberg, and the kronecker product successive projection methods of Wyk, etc. In addition, improved algorithms can be developed from the NSGM framework with respects to the corresponding results in graph theory. As the observation, it is pointed out that, in general, any algorithm which can be subsumed from NSGM framework fails to work well for graphs with non-trivial auto-isomorphism structure.
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Seedlings of clover (Triflorium hybridum) were colonized by Bacillus thuringiensis when spores and seeds were co-inoculated into soil. Both a strain isolated in the vegetative form from the phylloplane of clover, 2810-S-4, and a laboratory strain, HD-1, were able to colonize clover to a density of about 1000 CFU/g leaf when seeds were sown in sterile soil and to a density of about 300 CFU/g leaf in nonsterile soil. A strain lacking the characteristic insecticidal crystal proteins produced a similar level of colonization over a 5-week period as the wild type strain, indicating that crystal production was not a mitigating factor during colonization. A small plasmid, pBC16, was transferred between strains of B. thuringiensis when donor and recipient strains were sprayed in vegetative form onto leaves of clover and pak choi (Brassica campestris var. chinensis). The rate of transfer was about 0.1 transconjugants/recipient and was dependent on the plant species. The levels of B. thuringiensis that naturally colonized leaves of pak choi produced negligible levels of mortality in third instar larvae of Pieris brassicae feeding on the plants. Considerable multiplication occurred in the excreted frass but not in the guts of living insects. Spores in the frass could be a source of recolonization from the soil and be transferred to other plants. These findings illustrate a possible cycle, not dependent on insect pathology, by which B. thuringiensis diversifies and maintains itself in nature.
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The purpose of this study is to produce a series of Conceptual Ecological Models (CEMs) that represent sublittoral rock habitats in the UK. CEMs are diagrammatic representations of the influences and processes that occur within an ecosystem. They can be used to identify critical aspects of an ecosystem that may be studied further, or serve as the basis for the selection of indicators for environmental monitoring purposes. The models produced by this project are control diagrams, representing the unimpacted state of the environment free from anthropogenic pressures. It is intended that the models produced by this project will be used to guide indicator selection for the monitoring of this habitat in UK waters. CEMs may eventually be produced for a range of habitat types defined under the UK Marine Biodiversity Monitoring R&D Programme (UKMBMP), which, along with stressor models, are designed to show the interactions within impacted habitats, would form the basis of a robust method for indicator selection. This project builds on the work to develop CEMs for shallow sublittoral coarse sediment habitats (Alexander et al 2014). The project scope included those habitats defined as ‘sublittoral rock’. This definition includes those habitats that fall into the EUNIS Level 3 classifications A3.1 Atlantic and Mediterranean high energy infralittoral rock, A3.2 Atlantic and Mediterranean moderate energy infralittoral rock, A3.3 Atlantic and Mediterranean low energy infralittoral rock, A4.1 Atlantic and Mediterranean high energy circalittoral rock, A4.2 Atlantic and Mediterranean moderate energy circalittoral rock, and A4.3 Atlantic and Mediterranean low energy circalittoral rock as well as the constituent Level 4 and 5 biotopes that are relevant to UK waters. A species list of characterising fauna to be included within the scope of the models was identified using an iterative process to refine the full list of species found within the relevant Level 5 biotopes. A literature review was conducted using a pragmatic and iterative approach to gather evidence regarding species traits and information that would be used to inform the models and characterise the interactions that occur within the sublittoral rock habitat. All information gathered during the literature review was entered into a data logging pro-forma spreadsheet that accompanies this report. Wherever possible, attempts were made to collect information from UK-specific peer-reviewed studies, although other sources were used where necessary. All data gathered was subject to a detailed confidence assessment. Expert judgement by the project team was utilised to provide information for aspects of the models for which references could not be sourced within the project timeframe. A multivariate analysis approach was adopted to assess ecologically similar groups (based on ecological and life history traits) of fauna from the identified species to form the basis of the models. A model hierarchy was developed based on these ecological groups. One general control model was produced that indicated the high-level drivers, inputs, biological assemblages, ecosystem processes and outputs that occur in sublittoral rock habitats. In addition to this, seven detailed sub-models were produced, which each focussed on a particular ecological group of fauna within the habitat: ‘macroalgae’, ‘temporarily or permanently attached active filter feeders’, ‘temporarily or permanently attached passive filter feeders’, ‘bivalves, brachiopods and other encrusting filter feeders’, ‘tube building fauna’, ‘scavengers and predatory fauna’, and ‘non-predatory mobile fauna’. Each sub-model is accompanied by an associated confidence model that presents confidence in the links between each model component. The models are split into seven levels and take spatial and temporal scale into account through their design, as well as magnitude and direction of influence. The seven levels include regional to global drivers, water column processes, local inputs/processes at the seabed, habitat and biological assemblage, output processes, local ecosystem functions, and regional to global ecosystem functions. The models indicate that whilst the high level drivers that affect each ecological group are largely similar, the output processes performed by the biota and the resulting ecosystem functions vary both in number and importance between groups. Confidence within the models as a whole is generally high, reflecting the level of information gathered during the literature review. Physical drivers which influence the ecosystem were found to be of high importance for the sublittoral rock habitat, with factors such as wave exposure, water depth and water currents noted to be crucial in defining the biological assemblages. Other important factors such as recruitment/propagule supply, and those which affect primary production, such as suspended sediments, light attenuation and water chemistry and temperature, were also noted to be key and act to influence the food sources consumed by the biological assemblages of the habitat, and the biological assemblages themselves. Output processes performed by the biological assemblages are variable between ecological groups depending on the specific flora and fauna present and the role they perform within the ecosystem. Of particular importance are the outputs performed by the macroalgae group, which are diverse in nature and exert influence over other ecological groups in the habitat. Important output processes from the habitat as a whole include primary and secondary production, bioengineering, biodeposition (in mixed sediment habitats) and the supply of propagules; these in turn influence ecosystem functions at the local scale such as nutrient and biogeochemical cycling, supply of food resources, sediment stability (in mixed sediment habitats), habitat provision and population and algae control. The export of biodiversity and organic matter, biodiversity enhancement and biotope stability are the resulting ecosystem functions that occur at the regional to global scale. Features within the models that are most useful for monitoring habitat status and change due to natural variation have been identified, as have those that may be useful for monitoring to identify anthropogenic causes of change within the ecosystem. Biological, physical and chemical features of the ecosystem have been identified as potential indicators to monitor natural variation, whereas biological factors and those physical /chemical factors most likely to affect primary production have predominantly been identified as most likely to indicate change due to anthropogenic pressures.
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Accelerated soil erosion is an aspect of dryland degradation that is affected by repeated intense drought events and land management activities such as commercial livestock grazing. A soil stability index (SSI) that detects the erosion status and susceptibility of a landscape at the pixel level, i.e., stable, erosional, or depositional pixels, was derived from the spectral properties of an archived time series (from 1972 to 1997) of Landsat satellite data of a commercial ranch in northeastern Utah. The SSI was retrospectively validated with contemporary field measures of soil organic matter and erosion status that was surveyed by US federal land management agencies. Catastrophe theory provided the conceptual framework for retrospective assessment of the impact of commercial grazing and soil water availability on the SSI. The overall SSI trend was from an eroding landscape in the early drier 1970s towards stable conditions in the wetter mid-1980s and late 1990s. The landscape catastrophically shifted towards an extreme eroding state that was coincident with the “The Great North American Drought of 1988”. Periods of landscape stability and trajectories toward stability were coincident with extremely wet El Niño events. Commercial grazing had less correlation with soil stability than drought conditions. However, the landscape became more susceptible to erosion events under multiple droughts and grazing. Land managers now have nearly a year warning of El Niño and La Niña events and can adjust their management decisions according to predicted landscape erosion conditions.