Essays on numerically efficient inference in nonlinear and non-Gaussian state space models, and commodity market analysis.

The first two articles build procedures to simulate vector of univariate states and estimate parameters in nonlinear and non Gaussian state space models. We propose state space speci fications that offer more flexibility in modeling dynamic relationship with latent variables. Our procedures are extension of the HESSIAN method of McCausland[2012]. Thus, they use approximation of the posterior density of the vector of states that allow to : simulate directly from the state vector posterior distribution, to simulate the states vector in one bloc and jointly with the vector of parameters, and to not allow data augmentation. These properties allow to build posterior simulators with very high relative numerical efficiency. Generic, they open a new path in nonlinear and non Gaussian state space analysis with limited contribution of the modeler. The third article is an essay in commodity market analysis. Private firms coexist with farmers' cooperatives in commodity markets in subsaharan african countries. The private firms have the biggest market share while some theoretical models predict they disappearance once confronted to farmers cooperatives. Elsewhere, some empirical studies and observations link cooperative incidence in a region with interpersonal trust, and thus to farmers trust toward cooperatives. We propose a model that sustain these empirical facts. A model where the cooperative reputation is a leading factor determining the market equilibrium of a price competition between a cooperative and a private firm

Bayesian inference and model comparison for random choice structures

We complete the development of a testing ground for axioms of discrete stochastic choice. Our contribution here is to develop new posterior simulation methods for Bayesian inference, suitable for a class of prior distributions introduced by McCausland and Marley (2013). These prior distributions are joint distributions over various choice distributions over choice sets of di fferent sizes. Since choice distributions over di fferent choice sets can be mutually dependent, previous methods relying on conjugate prior distributions do not apply. We demonstrate by analyzing data from a previously reported experiment and report evidence for and against various axioms.

Inference for nonparametric high-frequency estimators with an application to time variation in betas

We consider the problem of conducting inference on nonparametric high-frequency estimators without knowing their asymptotic variances. We prove that a multivariate subsampling method achieves this goal under general conditions that were not previously available in the literature. We suggest a procedure for a data-driven choice of the bandwidth parameters. Our simulation study indicates that the subsampling method is much more robust than the plug-in method based on the asymptotic expression for the variance. Importantly, the subsampling method reliably estimates the variability of the Two Scale estimator even when its parameters are chosen to minimize the finite sample Mean Squared Error; in contrast, the plugin estimator substantially underestimates the sampling uncertainty. By construction, the subsampling method delivers estimates of the variance-covariance matrices that are always positive semi-definite. We use the subsampling method to study the dynamics of financial betas of six stocks on the NYSE. We document significant variation in betas within year 2006, and find that tick data captures more variation in betas than the data sampled at moderate frequencies such as every five or twenty minutes. To capture this variation we estimate a simple dynamic model for betas. The variance estimation is also important for the correction of the errors-in-variables bias in such models. We find that the bias corrections are substantial, and that betas are more persistent than the naive estimators would lead one to believe.

Statistical Inference for Some Measures of System Availability

Department of Statistics, Cochin University of Science and Technology

Simultaneous determination of nonlinear optical and thermo-optic parameters of liquid samples

The authors apply the theory of photothermal lens formation and also that of pure optical nonlinearity to account for the phase modulation in a beam as it traverses a nonlinear medium. It is used to simultaneously determine the nonlinear optical refraction and the thermo-optic coefficient. They demonstrate this technique using some metal phthalocyanines dissolved in dimethyl sulfoxide, irradiated by a Q-switched Nd:YAG laser with 10 Hz repetition rate and a pulse width of 8 ns. The mechanism for reverse saturable absorption in these materials is also discussed.

Design and development of an LED based fiber optic evanescent wave sensor for simultaneous detection of chromium and nitrite traces in water

The design and development of a cost-effective, simple, sensitive and portable LED based fiber optic evanescent wave sensor for simultaneously detecting trace amounts of chromium and nitrite in water are presented. In order to obtain the desired performance, the middle portions of two multimode plastic clad silica fibers are unclad and are used as the sensing elements in the two arms of the sensor. Each of the sensor arms is sourced by separate super bright green LEDs, which are modulated in a time-sharing manner and a single photo detector is employed for detecting these light signals. The performance and characteristics of this system clearly establish the usefulness of the technique for detecting very low concentrations of the dissolved contaminants.

Bayesian Inference in Exponential and Pareto populations in the presence of Outliers

This thesis Entitled Bayesian inference in Exponential and pareto populations in the presence of outliers. The main theme of the present thesis is focussed on various estimation problems using the Bayesian appraoch, falling under the general category of accommodation procedures for analysing Pareto data containing outlier. In Chapter II. the problem of estimation of parameters in the classical Pareto distribution specified by the density function. In Chapter IV. we discuss the estimation of (1.19) when the sample contain a known number of outliers under three different data generating mechanisms, viz. the exchangeable model. Chapter V the prediction of a future observation based on a random sample that contains one contaminant. Chapter VI is devoted to the study of estimation problems concerning the exponential parameters under a k-outlier model.

Simultaneous Embeddings Of Graphs As Median And Antimedian Subgraphs

The distance DG(v) of a vertex v in an undirected graph G is the sum of the distances between v and all other vertices of G. The set of vertices in G with maximum (minimum) distance is the antimedian (median) set of a graph G. It is proved that for arbitrary graphs G and J and a positive integer r 2, there exists a connected graph H such that G is the antimedian and J the median subgraphs of H, respectively, and that dH(G, J) = r. When both G and J are connected, G and J can in addition be made convex subgraphs of H.

Propyl Gallate Synthesis Using Acidophilic Tannase and Simultaneous Production of Tannase and Gallic Acid by Marine Aspergillus awamori BTMFW032

Marine Aspergillus awamori BTMFW032, recently reported by us, produce acidophilic tannase as extracellular enzyme. Here, we report the application of this enzyme for synthesis of propyl gallate by direct transesterification of tannic acid and in tea cream solubilisation besides the simultaneous production of gallic acid along with tannase under submerged fermentation by this fungus. This acidophilic tannase enabled synthesis of propyl gallate by direct transesterification of tannic acid using propanol as organic reaction media under low water conditions. The identity of the product was confirmed with thin layer chromatography and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. It was noted that 699 U/ml of enzyme could give 60% solubilisation of tea cream within 1 h. Enzyme production medium was optimized adopting Box–Behnken design for simultaneous synthesis of tannase and gallic acid. Process variables including tannic acid, sodium chloride, ferrous sulphate, dipotassium hydrogen phosphate, incubation period and agitation were recognized as the critical factors that influenced tannase and gallic acid production. The model obtained predicted 4,824.61 U/ml of tannase and 136.206 μg/ml gallic acid after 48 h of incubation, whereas optimized medium supported 5,085 U/ml tannase and 372.6 μg/ml of gallic acid production after 36 and 84 h of incubation, respectively, with a 15-fold increase in both enzyme and gallic acid production. Results indicated scope for utilization of this acidophilic tannase for transesterification of tannic acid into propyl gallate, tea cream solubilisation and simultaneous production of gallic acid along with tannase

3D Simultaneous Inversion for Seismic Structure and Local Hypocenters in Germany under Consideration of Seismic Anisotropy in the Upper Mantel

The main task of this work has been to investigate the effects of anisotropy onto the propagation of seismic waves along the Upper Mantle below Germany and adjacent areas. Refraction- and reflexion seismic experiments proved the existence of Upper Mantle anisotropy and its influence onto the propagation of Pn-waves. By the 3D tomographic investigations that have been done here for the crust and the upper mantle, considering the influence of anisotropy, a gap for the investigations in Europe has been closed. These investigations have been done with the SSH-Inversionprogram of Prof. Dr. M. Koch, which is able to compute simultaneously the seismic structure and hypocenters. For the investigation, a dataset has been available with recordings between the years 1975 to 2003 with a total of 60249 P- and 54212 S-phase records of 10028 seismic events. At the beginning, a precise analysis of the residuals (RES, the difference between calculated and observed arrivaltime) has been done which confirmed the existence of anisotropy for Pn-phases. The recognized sinusoidal distribution has been compensated by an extension of the SSH-program by an ellipse with a slow and rectangular fast axis with azimuth to correct the Pn-velocities. The azimuth of the fast axis has been fixed by the application of the simultaneous inversion at 25° - 27° with a variation of the velocities at +- 2.5 about an average value at 8 km/s. This new value differs from the old one at 35°, recognized in the initial residual analysis. This depends on the new computed hypocenters together with the structure. The application of the elliptical correction has resulted in a better fit of the vertical layered 1D-Model, compared to the results of preceding seismological experiments and 1D and 2D investigations. The optimal result of the 1D-inversion has been used as initial starting model for the 3D-inversions to compute the three dimensional picture of the seismic structure of the Crust and Upper Mantle. The simultaneous inversion has showed an optimization of the relocalization of the hypocenters and the reconstruction of the seismic structure in comparison to the geology and tectonic, as described by other investigations. The investigations for the seismic structure and the relocalization have been confirmed by several different tests. First, synthetic traveltime data are computed with an anisotropic variation and inverted with and without anisotropic correction. Further, tests with randomly disturbed hypocenters and traveltime data have been proceeded to verify the influence of the initial values onto the relocalization accuracy and onto the seismic structure and to test for a further improvement by the application of the anisotropic correction. Finally, the results of the work have been applied onto the Waldkirch earthquake in 2004 to compare the isotropic and the anisotropic relocalization with the initial optimal one to verify whether there is some improvement.

Simultaneous Drying and Separation of Composite Agricultural Material for Hay Processing

In composite agricultural materials such as grass, tee, medicinal plants; leaves and stems have a different drying time. By this behavior, after leaving the dryer, the stems may have greater moisture content than desired, while the leaves one minor, which can cause either the appearance of fungi or the collapse of the over-dried material. Taking into account that a lot of grass is dehydrated in forced air dryers, especially rotary drum dryers, this research was developed in order to establish conditions enabling to make a separation of the components during the drying process in order to provide a homogeneous product at the end. For this, a rotary dryer consisting of three concentric cylinders and a circular sieve aligned with the more internal cylinder was proposed; so that, once material enters into the dryer in the area of the inner cylinder, stems pass through sieve to the middle and then continue towards the external cylinder, while the leaves continue by the inner cylinder. For this project, a mixture of Ryegrass and White Clover was used. The characteristics of the components of a mixture were: Drying Rate in thin layer and in rotation, Bulk density, Projected Area, Terminal velocity, weight/Area Ratio, Flux through Rotary sieve. Three drying temperatures; 40°C, 60° C and 80° C, and three rotation speeds; 10 rpm, 20 rpm and 40 rpm were evaluated. It was found that the differences in drying time are the less at 80 °C when the dryer rotates at 40 rpm. Above this speed, the material adheres to the walls of the dryer or sieve and does not flow. According to the measurements of terminal velocity of stems and leaves of the components of the mixture, the speed of the air should be less than 1.5 m s-1 in the inner drum for the leaves and less than 4.5 m s-1 in middle and outer drums for stems, in such way that only the rotational movement of the dryer moves the material and achieves a greater residence time. In other hand, the best rotary sieve separation efficiencies were achieved when the material is dry, but the results are good in all the moisture contents. The best rotary speed of sieve is within the critical rotational speed, i.e. 20 rpm. However, the rotational speed of the dryer, including the sieve in line with the inner cylinder should be 10 rpm or less in order to achieve the greatest residence times of the material inside the dryer and the best agitation through the use of lifting flights. With a finite element analysis of a dryer prototype, using an air flow allowing speeds of air already stated, I was found that the best performance occurs when, through a cover, air enters the dryer front of the Middle cylinder and when the inner cylinder is formed in its entirety through a sieve. This way, air flows in almost equal amounts by both the middle and external cylinders, while part of the air in the Middle cylinder passes through the sieve towards the inner cylinder. With this, leaves do not adhere to the sieve and flow along drier, thanks to the rotating movement of the drums and the showering caused by the lifting flights. In these conditions, the differences in drying time are reduced to 60 minutes, but the residence time is higher for the stems than for leaves, therefore the components of the mixture of grass run out of the dryer with the same desired moisture content.

A Theory of Quantitative Inference Applied to a Mechanical Design Compiler

This thesis presents the ideas underlying a computer program that takes as input a schematic of a mechanical or hydraulic power transmission system, plus specifications and a utility function, and returns catalog numbers from predefined catalogs for the optimal selection of components implementing the design. Unlike programs for designing single components or systems, the program provides the designer with a high level "language" in which to compose new designs. It then performs some of the detailed design process. The process of "compilation" is based on a formalization of quantitative inferences about hierarchically organized sets of artifacts and operating conditions. This allows the design compilation without the exhaustive enumeration of alternatives.