Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections

The evidence for anthropogenic climate change continues to strengthen, and concerns about severe weather events are increasing. As a result, scientific interest is rapidly shifting from detection and attribution of global climate change to prediction of its impacts at the regional scale. However, nearly everything we have any confidence in when it comes to climate change is related to global patterns of surface temperature, which are primarily controlled by thermodynamics. In contrast, we have much less confidence in atmospheric circulation aspects of climate change, which are primarily controlled by dynamics and exert a strong control on regional climate. Model projections of circulation-related fields, including precipitation, show a wide range of possible outcomes, even on centennial timescales. Sources of uncertainty include low-frequency chaotic variability and the sensitivity to model error of the circulation response to climate forcing. As the circulation response to external forcing appears to project strongly onto existing patterns of variability, knowledge of errors in the dynamics of variability may provide some constraints on model projections. Nevertheless, higher scientific confidence in circulation-related aspects of climate change will be difficult to obtain. For effective decision-making, it is necessary to move to a more explicitly probabilistic, risk-based approach.

Utilizing insect behavior in chemical detection by a behavioral biosensor

Traditionally, biosensors have been defined as consisting of two parts; a biological part, which is used to detect chemical or physical changes in the environment, and a corresponding electronic component, which tranduces the signal into an electronically readable format. Biosensors are used for detection of volatile compounds often at a level of sensitivity unattainable by traditional analytical techniques. Classical biosensors and traditional analytical techniques do not allow an ecological context to be imparted to the volatile compound/s under investigation. Therefore, we propose the use of behavioral biosensors, in which a whole organism is utilized for the analysis of chemical stimuli. In this case, the organism detects a chemical or physical change and demonstrates this detection through modifications of its behavior; it is the organism's behavior itself that defines the biosensor. In this review, we evaluate the use and future prospects of behavioral biosensors, with a particular focus on parasitic wasps.

Recent progress in understanding and projecting regional and global mean sea-level change

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5’s assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003–2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993–2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likely range, indicating that there is a greater probability that sea level rise by 2100 will lie in this range with a corresponding decrease in the likelihood of an additional contribution of several tens of centimeters above the likely range. In view of the comparatively limited state of knowledge and understanding of rapid ice sheet dynamics, we continue to think that it is not yet possible to make reliable quantitative estimates of future GMSL rise outside the likely range. Projections of twenty-first century GMSL rise published since the AR5 depend on results from expert elicitation, but we have low confidence in conclusions based on these approaches. New work on regional projections and emergence of the anthropogenic signal suggests that the two commonly predicted features of future regional sea level change (the increasing tilt across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the dipole in the North Atlantic) are related to regional changes in wind stress and surface heat flux. Moreover, it is expected that sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing, particularly in regions of relatively low unforced variability such as the low-latitude Atlantic, will be detectable over most of the ocean by 2040. The east-west contrast of sea level trends in the Pacific observed since the early 1990s cannot be satisfactorily accounted for by climate models, nor yet definitively attributed either to unforced variability or forced climate change.

On the detection and attribution of gravity waves generated by the 20 March 2015 solar eclipse

Internal gravity waves are generated as adjustment radiation whenever a sudden change in forcing causes the atmosphere to depart from its large-scale balanced state. Such a forcing anomaly occurs during a solar eclipse, when the Moon’s shadow cools part of the Earth’s surface. The resulting atmospheric gravity waves are associated with pressure and temperature perturbations, which in principle are detectable both at the surface and aloft. In this study, surface pressure and temperature data from two UK sites at Reading and Lerwick are analysed for eclipse-driven gravity-wave perturbations during the 20 March 2015 solar eclipse over north-west Europe. Radiosonde wind data from the same two sites are also analysed using a moving parcel analysis method, to determine the periodicities of the waves aloft. On this occasion, the perturbations both at the surface and aloft are found not to be confidently attributable to eclipse-driven gravity waves. We conclude that the complex synoptic weather conditions over the UK at the time of this particular eclipse helped to mask any eclipse-driven gravity waves.

Detection and attribution of human influence on regional precipitation

Understanding how human influence on climate is affecting precipitation around the world is immensely important for defining mitigation policies, and for adaptation planning. Yet despite increasing evidence for the influence of climate change on global patterns of precipitation, and expectations that significant changes in regional precipitation should have already occurred as a result of human influence on climate, compelling evidence of anthropogenic fingerprints on regional precipitation is obscured by observational and modelling uncertainties and is likely to remain so using current methods for years to come. This is in spite of substantial ongoing improvements in models, new reanalyses and a satellite record that spans over thirty years. If we are to quantify how human-induced climate change is affecting the regional water cycle, we need to consider novel ways of identifying the effects of natural and anthropogenic influences on precipitation that take full advantage of our physical expectations.

Highly Sensitive Fluorescent Method for the Detection of Cholesterol Aldehydes Formed by Ozone and Singlet Molecular Oxygen

Cholesterol oxidation gives rise to a mixture of oxidized products. Different types of products are generated according to the reactive species being involved. Recently, attention has been focused on two cholesterol aldehydes, 3 beta-hydroxy-5 beta-hydroxy-B-norcholestane-6 beta-carboxyaldehyde (1a) and 3 beta-hydroxy-5-oxo-5,6-secocholestan-6-al (1b). These aldehydes can be generated by ozone-, as well as by singlet molecular oxygen-mediated cholesterol oxidation. It has been suggested that 1b is preferentially formed by ozone and la is preferentially formed by singlet molecular oxygen. In this study we describe the use of 1-pyrenebutyric hydrazine (PBH) as a fluorescent probe for the detection of cholesterol aldehydes. The formation of the fluorescent adduct between la with PBH was confirmed by HPLC-MS/MS. The fluorescence spectra of PBH did not change upon binding to the aldehyde. Moreover, the derivatization was also effective in the absence of an acidified medium, which is critical to avoid the formation of cholesterol aldehydes through Hock cleavage of 5 alpha-hydroperoxycholesterol. In conclusion, PBH can be used as an efficient fluorescent probe for the detection/quantification of cholesterol aldehydes in biological samples. Its analysis by HPLC coupled to a fluorescent detector provides a sensitive and specific way to quantify cholesterol aldehydes in the low femtomol range.

Motion Detection for Video Surveillance

This thesis is related to the broad subject of automatic motion detection and analysis in videosurveillance image sequence. Besides, proposing the new unique solution, some of the previousalgorithms are evaluated, where some of the approaches are noticeably complementary sometimes.In real time surveillance, detecting and tracking multiple objects and monitoring their activities inboth outdoor and indoor environment are challenging task for the video surveillance system. Inpresence of a good number of real time problems limits scope for this work since the beginning. Theproblems are namely, illumination changes, moving background and shadow detection.An improved background subtraction method has been followed by foreground segmentation, dataevaluation, shadow detection in the scene and finally the motion detection method. The algorithm isapplied on to a number of practical problems to observe whether it leads us to the expected solution.Several experiments are done under different challenging problem environment. Test result showsthat under most of the problematic environment, the proposed algorithm shows the better qualityresult.

Salt stress change chlorophyll fluorescence in mango

Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar o efeito do estresse salino sobre a eficiência fotoquímica do fotossistema II (PSII) nas cultivares de manga 'Haden', 'Palmer', 'Tommy Atkins' e 'Ubá' enxertadas sobre o porta-enxerto 'Imbu'. Foi utilizada solução nutritiva de Hoagland modificada contendo 0; 15; 30e 45 mmol L-1 NaCl. Aos 97 dias após a exposição ao estresse salino, foram avaliados os parâmetros da fluorescência da clorofila (F0, Fm, Fv, F0/Fm, Fv/Fm, Fv'/Fm', ΦPSII = [(Fm'-Fs)/(Fm')], D = (1- Fv'/Fm') e ETR = (ΦPSII×PPF×0,84×0,5). Aos 100 dias, foram avaliados a emissão foliar, a área média de folhas (cm²), o índice de toxidez nas folhas e o índice de abscisão foliar. em todas as cultivares, em graus diferenciados, ocorreram decréscimo na eficiência fotoquímica do fotossistema II, na emissão de folhas, e aumento nos índices de toxidez e abscisão foliar, intensificados nas concentrações a partir de 15 mmol L-1 NaCl. As plantas cultivadas em 45 mmol L-1 NaCl apresentaram decréscimos na razão Fv/Fm de 27,9; 18,7; 20,5 e 27,4%, incremento no índice de toxidez foliar de 33,0; 67,5; 41,6 e 80,8% e no índice de abscisão foliar de 71,8; 29,2; 32,5 e 67,9% para as cultivares 'Haden', 'Palmer', 'Tommy Atkins' e 'Uba', respectivamente. Os decréscimos na razão Fv/Fm foram acompanhados de redução na emissão de folhas e aumento no índice de toxidez foliar, mostrando, portanto, o potencial da fluorescência da clorofila na detecção precoce de estresse salino em mangueira.

Neural network detection of grinding burn from acoustic emission

An artificial neural network (ANN) approach is proposed for the detection of workpiece `burn', the undesirable change in metallurgical properties of the material produced by overly aggressive or otherwise inappropriate grinding. The grinding acoustic emission (AE) signals for 52100 bearing steel were collected and digested to extract feature vectors that appear to be suitable for ANN processing. Two feature vectors are represented: one concerning band power, kurtosis and skew; and the other autoregressive (AR) coefficients. The result (burn or no-burn) of the signals was identified on the basis of hardness and profile tests after grinding. The trained neural network works remarkably well for burn detection. Other signal-processing approaches are also discussed, and among them the constant false-alarm rate (CFAR) power law and the mean-value deviance (MVD) prove useful.

CMOS-based active pixel for low-light-level detection: Analysis and measurements

An analysis of the active pixel sensor (APS), considering the doping profiles of the photodiode in an APS fabricated in a 0.18 μm standard CMOS technology, is presented. A simple and accurate model for the junction capacitance of the photodiode is proposed. An analytic expression for the output voltage of the APS obtained with this capacitance model is in good agreement with measurements and is more accurate than the models used previously. A different mode of operation for the APS based on the dc level of the output is suggested. This new mode has better low-light-level sensitivity than the conventional APS operating mode, and it has a slower temporal response to the change of the incident light power. At 1μW/cm2 and lower levels of light, the measured signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of this new mode is more than 10 dB higher than the SNR of previously reported APS circuits. Also, with an output SNR of about 10 dB, the proposed dc level is capable of detecting light powers as low as 20 nW/cm2, which is about 30 times lower than the light power detected in recent reports by other groups. © 2007 IEEE.

Multilayer perceptron neural networks training through charged system search and its Application for non-technical losses detection

The non-technical loss is not a problem with trivial solution or regional character and its minimization represents the guarantee of investments in product quality and maintenance of power systems, introduced by a competitive environment after the period of privatization in the national scene. In this paper, we show how to improve the training phase of a neural network-based classifier using a recently proposed meta-heuristic technique called Charged System Search, which is based on the interactions between electrically charged particles. The experiments were carried out in the context of non-technical loss in power distribution systems in a dataset obtained from a Brazilian electrical power company, and have demonstrated the robustness of the proposed technique against with several others nature-inspired optimization techniques for training neural networks. Thus, it is possible to improve some applications on Smart Grids. © 2013 IEEE.

Electrochemical detection method

Electrochemical detection method and related aspects Herein is disclosed an electrochemical test method comprising (i) comparing how a plurality of immittance functions and/or components thereof vary with a change in a parameter of interest for a first system, and then selecting an immittance function or component thereof for use in an electrochemical test; (ii) carryingout an electrochemical test step for a second system to determine at least one value for the immittance function or component thereof selected in step (i), and then, by using a quantitative relationship between the selected immittance function and the parameter of interest, determining a value in the parameter of interest. A computer program and apparatus are also disclosed herein.

Does hyperglycemia in pregnancy change fetal kidney growth?: a longitudinal prospective study

PURPOSE: To measure fetal renal volume in normoglycemic and hyperglycemic pregnancies. METHODS: A longitudinal prospective study was conducted and included 92 hyperglycemic and 339 normoglycemic pregnant women attended at the prenatal service of a hospital from Rio de Janeiro State. Ultrasound examinations were performed to estimate gestational age at baseline and the kidney volume was estimated using the prolate ellipsoid volume equation. RESULTS: Fetal kidney volume growth between normoglycemic and hyperglycemic pregnancies are significantly different. The fetal kidney volume growth in pregnancy is positively correlated with gestational age explained by these predictor equations, by group: normal renal volume = exp (6.186+0.09×gestational week); hyperglycemic renal volume = exp (6.978+0.071×gestational week) and an excessive growth pattern for hyperglycemic pregnancies may be established according to gestational age. CONCLUSION: This is important for early detection of abnormalities in pregnancy, particularly in diabetic mothers.

Structural damage detection in an aeronautical panel using analysis of variance

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Nonlinear features identified by Volterra series for damage detection in a buckled beam

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)