992 resultados para retrospective forecast test


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Foi aplicada uma versão reduzida do "Face-Hand Test", o FHT-R, em 91 pessoas com 65 anos ou mais em uma amostra ao acaso de idosos vivendo na comunidade (São Paulo, Brasil), com objetivo de testar a habilidade do instrumento em detectar as síndromes psicorgânicas. Os escores do FHT-R foram comparados com as avaliações de um psiquiatra utilizando uma entrevista semi-estruturada, a "Clinical Interview Schedule". Cinco pessoas foram consideradas como sendo portadoras de distúrbios psicorgânicos e 86 como não sendo portadoras de tais distúrbios. No ponto de corte 0/1 os coeficientes de validação obtidos foram: sensibilidade 60%, especificidade 94%, valor prognóstico positivo 38%, valor prognóstico negativo 98%, e taxa de classificação incorreta 8%. A utilização do Teste em pesquisas epidemiológicas é discutida no corpo do trabalho.

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This paper studies the application of commercial biocides to old maritime pine timber structures (Pinus pinaster Ait.) that have previously been impregnated with other products. A method was developed in the laboratory to be used in situ to determine the impregnation depth achieved by a new generation biocide product applied to timber from an old building. This timber had once been treated with an unknown product difficult to characterize without extensive analysis. The test was initially developed in laboratory conditions and later tested on elements of the roof structure of an 18th century building. In both cases the results were promising and mutually consistent with penetration depths for some treatments reaching 2.0 cm. The application in situ proved the tests viability and simplicity of execution giving a clear indication on the feasibility of possible re-treatments.

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Cryptosporidium sp., a coccidian parasite usually found in the faeces of cattle, has been recently implicated as an agent of human intestinal disease, mainly in immunocompromised patients. In the study realized, by an indirect immunofluorescence technique, specific immunoglobulins (IgG and IgM) have been demonstrated in human serum against Cryptosporidium oocysts. Purified oocysts were used as antigens in the indirect immunofluorecence assay. After analyzing this test in sera from selected groups of patients, the frequency of both specific IgG and IgM of immunocompetent children who were excreting oocysts in their faeces was 62% and in children with negative excretion of oocysts was 20% and 40%, respectively. In adults infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and who were excreting Cryptosporidium in their stools, the frequency was 57% for IgG but only 2% for IgM. Twenty three percent of immunocompromised adults with not determined excretion of oocysts in their stools had anti-Cryptosporidium IgG in their sera. Children infected with human immunodeficiency virus had no IgM and only 14% had IgG detectable in their sera. The indirect immunoflorescence assay, when used with other parasitological techniques appears to be useful for retrospective population studies and for diagnosis of acute infection. The humoral immune response of HIV positive patients to this protozoan agent needs clarification.

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When a paleomagnetic pole is sought for in an igneous body, the host rocks should be subjected to a contact test to assure that the determined paleopole has the age of the intrusion. If the contact test is positive, it precludes the possibility that the measured magnetization is a later effect. Therefore, we investigated the variations of the remanent magnetization along cross-sections of rocks hosting the Foum Zguid dyke (southern Morocco) and the dyke itself. A positive contact test was obtained, but it is mainly related with Chemical/Crystalline Remanent Magnetization due to metasomatic processes in the host-rocks during magma intrusion and cooling, and not only with Thermo-Remanent Magnetization as ordinarily assumed in standard studies. Paleomagnetic data obtained within the dyke then reflect the Earth magnetic field during emplacement of this well-dated (196.9 +/- 1.8 Ma) intrusion.

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This paper concerns the study of biocides application in old timber structures of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ail.), previously impregnated with other products. A method was developed in laboratory to determine in situ the penetration depth of a product applied superficially. As initial treatment, three traditional products for sawn timber for buildings were used and, for new treatments, two newer, more environmentally benign products were used. Their ability to penetrate the pre-treated surfaces was evaluated after 1, 2 and 3 applications at 24 hours intervals and the results obtained are presented. Finally, the applicability of the developed test to the in-situ evaluation of timber structures is also discussed.

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We are concerned with providing more empirical evidence on forecast failure, developing forecast models, and examining the impact of events such as audit reports. A joint consideration of classic financial ratios and relevant external indicators leads us to build a basic prediction model focused in non-financial Galician SMEs. Explanatory variables are relevant financial indicators from the viewpoint of the financial logic and financial failure theory. The paper explores three mathematical models: discriminant analysis, Logit, and linear multivariate regression. We conclude that, even though they both offer high explanatory and predictive abilities, Logit and MDA models should be used and interpreted jointly.

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Mestrado em Segurança e Higiene no TRabalho.

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INTRODUCTION: After the era of rubella vaccine, cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is one of the most frequently causes of mental retardation and congenital deafness. Seroepidemiological studies are necessary to understand the transmission dynamics of the disease. The purpose of the study was to quantify the transmission rate of CMV disease in a community in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: Using ELISA test (IgG), a retrospective serological survey looking for CMV antibodies was performed in an non-immunized community. Frozen sera from 443 individuals, randomly selected by cluster sampling technique in the town of Caieiras, São Paulo, were collected from November 1990 to January 1991. Seroprevalence was stratified by age (0-40 years). Mathematical techniques were applied to determine the age-dependent decay function of maternal antibodies during the first year of life, the age-dependent seroprevalence function and the force of infection for CMV in this community. RESULTS: It was observed a descending phase of seropositivity in the first 9 months, but changes in antibody titration were observed between 8 months old and one year of age. The average age of the first infection was 5.02 months of age and 19.84 years, when the age-dependent seroprevalence and the force of infection were analyzed between 10 months of age and 10 years of age and from 10 to 40 years old, respectively. CONCLUSION: CMV infection is highly prevalent among the population studied and infection occurs in the first year of life. This study shows that most women at reproductive age are vulnerable to the first infection, increasing the risk for congenital infection.

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The aim of the study is to adapt and then discuss the appropriateness of the Life Orientation Test as a one or two dimension scale. The research includes two studies; one is composed of a sequential sample of 280 people with multiple sclerosis, 71% female, and another includes a convenience sample of 615 individuals from the community, 51.1% female. Because the construct is built upon a theoretical assumption that has one dimension, we examine the hypothesis of one or two factor solutions through confirmatory factor analysis, and the two-dimension solution premise demonstrates better adjustment for both samples. The other psychometric properties explored show appropriate results for the Portuguese sample, and similar to the original ones; the Test therefore seems appropriate for use in cross cultural studies. Based on our results, we discuss whether the questionnaire is a one or two dimension instrument, concluding that it appears appropriate to accept the recommendations of the original authors to use it as a one-dimensional tool and, when necessary, to use both dimensions. - RESUMO: El objetivo del estudio es adaptar y discutir la adecuación de la prueba de Orientación de la Vida en una o dos escalas de dimensión. La investigación engloba dos estudios, uno constituido por una muestra secuencial de 280 personas con esclerosis múltiple, 71% mujeres y otro con una muestra de conveniencia de la comunidad de 615 individuos, 51,1% del sexo femenino. Como el constructo se asienta sobre la presunción teórica de que tiene una dimensión, inspeccionamos la hipótesis de una o dos soluciones de factor a través del análisis factorial confirmatorio y la hipótesis de dos dimensiones manifiesta un mejor ajuste para ambas muestras. Las otras propiedades psicométricas exploradas muestran los resultados apropiados para la muestra portuguesa, y semejantes a los originales. Parece apropiado para los estudios culturales transversales. Basándonos en nuestros resultados, discutimos si el cuestionario es un instrumento de una o dos dimensiones, concluyéndose que parece conveniente seguir las recomendaciones de los autores originales, para utilizarlo como un instrumento unidimensional y, si fuera necesario necesario, utilizar cada una de las dimensiones.

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The study was carried out to evaluate the diagnostic performance of the ICT malaria Pf/PvTM test for vivax malaria diagnosis in Belém, Amazon region, Brazil. The results of blood malaria parasites examination using an immunochromatography test were compared with thick blood film (TBF) examination. It was also evaluated the performance of this test storaged at three different temperatures (25°C, 30°C, and 37°C) for 24 hours before use. Overall sensitivity of ICT Pf/PvTM was 61.8% with a specificity of 100%, positive and negative predictive value of 100% and 71.8%, respectively and accuracy of 80.6%. The test sensitivity was independent of the parasite density. This test needs to be further reviewed in order to have better performance for P. vivax malaria diagnosis.

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A test chamber was projected and built (according to ISO 16000-9 Standard) to simulate atmospheric conditions experienced by rubber infill (when applied in synthetic turf pitches) and measure accurately the airborne emissions of pollutants such as dusts and volatile organic compounds (VOC), as well as pollutants present in leachates. It should be pointed out that standard ISO 16000-9 is only concerned with the determination of the emission of VOC from building products and furnishing (not specific of synthetic turf materials), whereas other standards are concerned with the emission of leachates only. This procedure is to be considered as a technical option to the lysimeter "global turf system evaluation" when the rubber infill alone is to be evaluated. The advantage of the proposed option considering this "test chamber" is its simplicity and economy. This test chamber is actually installed and being used for tests in LAIST.

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Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

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This paper presents an artificial neural network applied to the forecasting of electricity market prices, with the special feature of being dynamic. The dynamism is verified at two different levels. The first level is characterized as a re-training of the network in every iteration, so that the artificial neural network can able to consider the most recent data at all times, and constantly adapt itself to the most recent happenings. The second level considers the adaptation of the neural network’s execution time depending on the circumstances of its use. The execution time adaptation is performed through the automatic adjustment of the amount of data considered for training the network. This is an advantageous and indispensable feature for this neural network’s integration in ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System), a multi-agent system that has the purpose of providing decision support to the market negotiating players of MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets).

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Electric vehicles introduction will affect cities environment and urban mobility policies. Network system operators will have to consider the electric vehicles in planning and operation activities due to electric vehicles’ dependency on the electricity grid. The present paper presents test cases using an Electric Vehicle Scenario Simulator (EVeSSi) being developed by the authors. The test cases include two scenarios considering a 33 bus network with up to 2000 electric vehicles in the urban area. The scenarios consider a penetration of 10% of electric vehicles (200 of 2000), 30% (600) and 100% (2000). The first scenario will evaluate network impacts and the second scenario will evaluate CO2 emissions and fuel consumption.