Accounting for management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models

Traditional sensitivity and elasticity analyses of matrix population models have been used to inform management decisions, but they ignore the economic costs of manipulating vital rates. For example, the growth rate of a population is often most sensitive to changes in adult survival rate, but this does not mean that increasing that rate is the best option for managing the population because it may be much more expensive than other options. To explore how managers should optimize their manipulation of vital rates, we incorporated the cost of changing those rates into matrix population models. We derived analytic expressions for locations in parameter space where managers should shift between management of fecundity and survival, for the balance between fecundity and survival management at those boundaries, and for the allocation of management resources to sustain that optimal balance. For simple matrices, the optimal budget allocation can often be expressed as simple functions of vital rates and the relative costs of changing them. We applied our method to management of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix; an endangered Australian bird) and the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) as examples. Our method showed that cost-efficient management of the Helmeted Honeyeater should focus on increasing fecundity via nest protection, whereas optimal koala management should focus on manipulating both fecundity and survival simultaneously. These findings are contrary to the cost-negligent recommendations of elasticity analysis, which would suggest focusing on managing survival in both cases. A further investigation of Helmeted Honeyeater management options, based on an individual-based model incorporating density dependence, spatial structure, and environmental stochasticity, confirmed that fecundity management was the most cost-effective strategy. Our results demonstrate that decisions that ignore economic factors will reduce management efficiency. ©2006 Society for Conservation Biology.

Proportionality : a valid alternative to correlation for relative data

Relative abundance data is common in the life sciences, but appreciation that it needs special analysis and interpretation is scarce. Correlation is popular as a statistical measure of pairwise association but should not be used on data that carry only relative information. Using timecourse yeast gene expression data, we show how correlation of relative abundances can lead to conclusions opposite to those drawn from absolute abundances, and that its value changes when different components are included in the analysis. Once all absolute information has been removed, only a subset of those associations will reliably endure in the remaining relative data, specifically, associations where pairs of values behave proportionally across observations. We propose a new statistic φ to describe the strength of proportionality between two variables and demonstrate how it can be straightforwardly used instead of correlation as the basis of familiar analyses and visualization methods.

Romantic terrorism: An autoethnography of domestic violence, victimization and survival

Romantic Terrorism offers an innovative methodology in exploring the ways in which domestic violence offenders terrorise their victims. Hayes and Jeffries employ a collaborative auto-ethnographic approach to analyse their own lived experiences of domestic violence, particularly how romantic love is employed and distorted by abusers. Its focus on the insidious use of tactics of coercive control by abusers opens up much-needed discussion on the damage caused by emotional and psychological abuse, which are often overlooked or downplayed in both the literature and the criminal justice system. To this end, it offers strategic advice for policy-makers, practitioners, and criminal justice professionals involved in domestic violence service provision.

Identifying the molecular mediators of VN and the IGF:VN complex-stimulated breast cancer cell survival

This project has identified a molecular signature involved in functions critical to breast cancer progression and metastasis mediated by vitronectin, an abundant protein in human plasma and victornectin:insulin-like growth factor complexes. This may have significant implications in designing future therapeutic targets for patient with tumours overexpressing vitronectin and/or the components of the insulin-like growth factor system:vitronectin axis. In particular, the findings from this project have identified Cyr61 and CTGF as key mediators involved in vitroncetin- and insulin-like growth factor I: Insulin-like growth factor-binding protein:vitronectin-induced breast cancer cell survival and migration.

Understanding the function and mechanisms of intestinal cell kinase in the growth and survival of prostate cancer cells

This project was a step forward in discovering the potential role of intestinal cell kinase in prostate cancer development. Intestinal cell kinase was shown to be upregulated in prostate cancer cells and altered expression led to changes in key cell survival proteins. This study used in vitro experiments to monitor changes in cell growth, protein and RNA expression.

Intravascular device administration sets: Replacement after standard versus prolonged use in hospitalised patients--a study protocol for a randomised controlled trial (The RSVP Trial)

Introduction Vascular access devices (VADs), such as peripheral or central venous catheters, are vital across all medical and surgical specialties. To allow therapy or haemodynamic monitoring, VADs frequently require administration sets (AS) composed of infusion tubing, fluid containers, pressure-monitoring transducers and/or burettes. While VADs are replaced only when necessary, AS are routinely replaced every 3–4 days in the belief that this reduces infectious complications. Strong evidence supports AS use up to 4 days, but there is less evidence for AS use beyond 4 days. AS replacement twice weekly increases hospital costs and workload. Methods and analysis This is a pragmatic, multicentre, randomised controlled trial (RCT) of equivalence design comparing AS replacement at 4 (control) versus 7 (experimental) days. Randomisation is stratified by site and device, centrally allocated and concealed until enrolment. 6554 adult/paediatric patients with a central venous catheter, peripherally inserted central catheter or peripheral arterial catheter will be enrolled over 4 years. The primary outcome is VAD-related bloodstream infection (BSI) and secondary outcomes are VAD colonisation, AS colonisation, all-cause BSI, all-cause mortality, number of AS per patient, VAD time in situ and costs. Relative incidence rates of VAD-BSI per 100 devices and hazard rates per 1000 device days (95% CIs) will summarise the impact of 7-day relative to 4-day AS use and test equivalence. Kaplan-Meier survival curves (with log rank Mantel-Cox test) will compare VAD-BSI over time. Appropriate parametric or non-parametric techniques will be used to compare secondary end points. p Values of <0.05 will be considered significant.

Surgical fusion of early onset severe scoliosis increases survival in the child with rett syndrome: A population based study

Introduction. Rett Syndrome is a rare genetic neurodevelopmental disorder usually affecting females. Scoliosis is a common comorbidity and spinal fusion may be recommended if severe. Little is known about long term outcomes. We examined the impact of spinal fusion on survival and risk of severe lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) in Rett Syndrome. Methods Data were ascertained from hospital medical records, the Australian Rett Syndrome Database, a longitudinal and population-based registry of Rett Syndrome cases established in 1993, and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare National Death Index database. An extended Cox regression model was used to estimate the effect of spinal surgery on survival in females who developed severe scoliosis (Cobb angle > 45 degrees). Generalized estimating equation modelling was used to estimate the effect of spinal surgery on the odds of developing severe LRTI. Results Severe scoliosis was identified in 140 cases (60.3%) of whom slightly fewer than half (48.6%) developed scoliosis prior to eight years of age. Scoliosis surgery was performed in 98 (69.0%) of those at a median age of 13 years 3 months (IQR 11 years 5 months – 14 years 10 months). After adjusting for mutation type and age of scoliosis onset, the rate of death was lower in the surgery group (HR 0.30, 95% CI 0.12, 0.74, P = 0.009) compared to those without surgery. Rate of death was particularly reduced for those with early onset scoliosis (HR 0.17, 95% CI 0.06, 0.52, P = 0.002). Spinal fusion was not associated with reduction in the occurrence of a severe LRTI overall (OR 0.60, 95%CI 0.27, 1.33, P=0.206) but was associated with a large reduction in odds of severe LRTI among those with early onset scoliosis (OR 0.32, 95%CI 0.11, 0.93, P=0.036). Conclusion With appropriate cautions, spinal fusion confers an advantage to life expectancy in Rett syndrome.

A preliminary investigation into adrenal responsiveness and outcomes in patients with cardiogenic shock after acute myocardial infarction

PURPOSE: This study investigated the significance of baseline cortisol levels and adrenal response to corticotropin in shocked patients after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). METHODS: A short corticotropin stimulation test was performed in 35 patients with cardiogenic shock after AMI by intravenously injecting of 250 μg of tetracosactrin (Synacthen). Blood samples were obtained at baseline (T0) before and at 30 (T30) and 60 (T60) minutes after the test to determine plasma total cortisol (TC) and free cortisol concentrations. The main outcome measure was in-hospital mortality and its association with T0 TC and maximum response to corticotropin (maximum difference [Δ max] in cortisol levels between T0 and the highest value between T30 and T60). RESULTS: The in-hospital mortality was 37%, and the median time to death was 4 days (interquartile range, 3-9 days). There was some evidence of an increased mortality in patients with T0 TC concentrations greater than 34 μg/dL (P=.07). Maximum difference by itself was not an independent predictor of death. Patients with a T0 TC 34 μg/dL or less and Δ max greater than 9 μg/dL appeared to have the most favorable survival (91%) when compared with the other 2 groups: T0 34 μg/dL or less and Δ max 9 μg/dL or less or T0 34 μg/dL or higher and Δ max greater than 9 μg/dL (75%; P=.8) and T0 greater than 34 μg/dL and Δ max 9 μg/dL or less (60%; P=.02). Corticosteroid therapy was associated with an increased mortality (P=.03). There was a strong correlation between plasma TC and free cortisol (r=0.85). CONCLUSIONS: A high baseline plasma TC was associated with a trend toward increased mortality in patients with cardiogenic shock post-AMI. Patients with lower baseline TC, but with an inducible adrenal response, appeared to have a survival benefit. A prognostic system based on basal TC and Δ max similar to that described in septic shock appears feasible in this cohort. Corticosteroid therapy was associated with adverse outcomes. These findings require further validation in larger studies.

Estimation of the time of a linear trend in monitoring survival time

Change point estimation is recognized as an essential tool of root cause analyses within quality control programs as it enables clinical experts to search for potential causes of change in hospital outcomes more effectively. In this paper, we consider estimation of the time when a linear trend disturbance has occurred in survival time following an in-control clinical intervention in the presence of variable patient mix. To model the process and change point, a linear trend in the survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery is formulated using hierarchical models in a Bayesian framework. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including the location and the slope size of the trend and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time cumulative sum control chart (CUSUM) control charts for different trend scenarios. In comparison with the alternatives, step change point model and built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the proposed Bayesian estimator over linear trends. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.

The dependence of computed tomography number to relative electron density conversion on phantom geometry and its impact on planned dose

A computed tomography number to relative electron density (CT-RED) calibration is performed when commissioning a radiotherapy CT scanner by imaging a calibration phantom with inserts of specified RED and recording the CT number displayed. In this work, CT-RED calibrations were generated using several commercially available phantoms to observe the effect of phantom geometry on conversion to electron density and, ultimately, the dose calculation in a treatment planning system. Using an anthropomorphic phantom as a gold standard, the CT number of a material was found to depend strongly on the amount and type of scattering material surrounding the volume of interest, with the largest variation observed for the highest density material tested, cortical bone. Cortical bone gave a maximum CT number difference of 1,110 when a cylindrical insert of diameter 28 mm scanned free in air was compared to that in the form of a 30 × 30 cm2 slab. The effect of using each CT-RED calibration on planned dose to a patient was quantified using a commercially available treatment planning system. When all calibrations were compared to the anthropomorphic calibration, the largest percentage dose difference was 4.2 % which occurred when the CT-RED calibration curve was acquired with heterogeneity inserts removed from the phantom and scanned free in air. The maximum dose difference observed between two dedicated CT-RED phantoms was ±2.1 %. A phantom that is to be used for CT-RED calibrations must have sufficient water equivalent scattering material surrounding the heterogeneous objects that are to be used for calibration.

Einstein Relation in n-Channel Inversion Layers of Nonlinear Optical, Optoelectronic and Related Materials: Simplified Theory, Relative Comparison and Suggestion for an Experimental Determination

In this paper, we study the Einstein relation for the diffusivity to mobility ratio (DMR) in n-channel inversion layers of non-linear optical materials on the basis of a newly formulated electron dispersion relation by considering their special properties within the frame work of k.p formalism. The results for the n-channel inversion layers of III-V, ternary and quaternary materials form a special case of our generalized analysis. The DMR for n-channel inversion layers of II-VI, IV-VI and stressed materials has been investigated by formulating the respective 2D electron dispersion laws. It has been found, taking n-channel inversion layers of CdGeAs2, Cd(3)AS(2), InAs, InSb, Hg1-xCdxTe, In1-xGaxAsyP1-y lattice matched to InP, CdS, PbTe, PbSnTe, Pb1-xSnxSe and stressed InSb as examples, that the DMR increases with the increasing surface electric field with different numerical values and the nature of the variations are totally band structure dependent. The well-known expression of the DMR for wide gap materials has been obtained as a special case under certain limiting conditions and this compatibility is an indirect test for our generalized formalism. Besides, an experimental method of determining the 2D DMR for n-channel inversion layers having arbitrary dispersion laws has been suggested.

A Global Constraint On Relative Rotation To Avoid Lumped Compliant Mechanisms In Topology Optimization

Some of the well known formulations for topology optimization of compliant mechanisms could lead to lumped compliant mechanisms. In lumped compliance, most of the elastic deformation in a mechanism occurs at few points, while rest of the mechanism remains more or less rigid. Such points are referred to as point-flexures. It has been noted in literature that high relative rotation is associated with point-flexures. In literature we also find a formulation of local constraint on relative rotations to avoid lumped compliance. However it is well known that a global constraint is easier to handle than a local constraint, by a numerical optimization algorithm. The current work presents a way of putting global constraint on relative rotations. This constraint is also simpler to implement since it uses linearized rotation at the center of finite-elements, to compute relative rotations. I show the results obtained by using this constraint oil the following benchmark problems - displacement inverter and gripper.

Relative Stabilities of Layered Perovskite and Pyrochlore Structures in Transition Metal-Oxides Containing Trivalent Bismuth

In order to investigate the factors determining the relative stabilities of layered perovskite and pyrochlore structures of transition metal oxides containing trivalent bismuth, several ternary and quaternary oxides have been investigated. While d0 cations stabilize the layered perovskite structure, cations containing partially-filled d orbitals (which suppress ferroelectric distortion of MO6 octahedra) seem to favor pyrochlore-related structures. Thus, the vanadium analogue of the layered perovskite Bi4Ti3O12 cannot be prepared; instead the composition consists of a mixture of pyrochlore-type Bi1.33V2O6, Bi2O3, and Bi metal. The distortion of Bi1.33V2O6 to orthorhombic symmetry is probably due to an ordering of anion vacancies in the pyrochlore structure. None of the other pyrochlores investigated, Bi2NbCrO7, Bi2NbFeO7, TlBiM2O7 (M = Nb, Ta), shows evidence for cation ordering in the X-Ray diffraction patterns, as indeed established by structure refinement of TlBiNb2O7.