Public debt and the limits of fiscal policy to increase economic growth

Research that seeks to estimate the effects of fiscal policies on economic growth has ignored the role of public debt in this relationship. This study proposes a theoretical model of endogenous growth, which demonstrates that the level of the public debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio should negatively impact the effect of fiscal policy on growth. This occurs because government indebtedness extracts part of the savings of the young to pay interest on the debts of the older generation, who are no longer saving. Therefore, the payment of debt interest assumes an allocation exchange role between generations that is similar to a pay-as-you-go pension system, which results in changes in the savings rate of the economy. The major conclusions of the theoretical model were tested using an econometric model to provide evidence for the validity of this conclusion. Our empirical analysis controls for timeinvariant, country-specific heterogeneity in the growth rates. We also address endogeneity issues and allow for heterogeneity across countries in the model parameters and for cross-sectional dependence.

Growth,distribution and school policy

This paper investigates the relationship between growth, income inequality, and educational policies. An endogenous growth model is built in which there are two types of labor, skilled and unskilled, and the quality of the labor force (measured by the fraction of skilled workers) will ultimately determine the economic growth rate. We show that multi pIe inequality and growth paths may arise. Countries will not necessarily converge to the same economic growth and income distribution. When the proportion of skilled workers is low, the economy grows slow, and the Gini coeflicient is high. Low expected growth rate inhibits investments in human capital and the quality of the labor force tomorrow turns out to be low again, keeping the economy in the bad equilibrium. We then analyze the effects on growth and inequality of two types of government intervention: introduction of public schools and vouchers. Both types can induce the economic agents to invest more in education. The consequence will be an increase in the quality of the labor force, leading to higher growth rates and less inequality. Finally, we examine the welfare consequences of these interventions and conclude that they may be Pareto improving.

A monthly indicator of Brazilian GDP. The Brazilian business cycle and growth cycle

This paper constructs an indicator of Brazilian GDP at the monthly ftequency. The peculiar instability and abrupt changes of regimes in the dynamic behavior of the Brazilian business cycle were explicitly modeled within nonlinear ftameworks. In particular, a Markov switching dynarnic factor model was used to combine several macroeconomic variables that display simultaneous comovements with aggregate economic activity. The model generates as output a monthly indicator of the Brazilian GDP and real time probabilities of the current phase of the Brazilian business cycle. The monthly indicator shows a remarkable historical conformity with cyclical movements of GDP. In addition, the estimated filtered probabilities predict ali recessions in sample and out-of-sample. The ability of the indicator in linear forecasting growth rates of GDP is also examined. The estimated indicator displays a better in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance in forecasting growth rates of real GDP, compared to a linear autoregressive model for GDP. These results suggest that the estimated monthly indicator can be used to forecast GDP and to monitor the state of the Brazilian economy in real time.

Demand- side resistance to creative destruction in schumpeterian growth theory

The Schumpelerian model of endogeno~s growlh is generalized with lhe introduction of stochastic resislance. by agenls other Ihan producers. to lhe innovations which drive growth. This causes a queue to be formcd of innovations, alrcady discovered, bUI waiting to be adopled~ A slationary stochastic equilibrium (SSE) is obtained when the queue is stable~ It is shown that in the SSE, such resistance will always reduce lhe average growth iate hut it may increa~e wclfare in certain silualions. In an example, Ihis is when innovatiuns are small anti monopoly power great. The cont1icl hetween this welfare motive for resistance and those of rent-seeking innovalors.may well explain why growth rates differ.

Convergence in Brazil: recent trends and long run prospects

This paper applies to the analysis of the interstate income distribution in BraziI a set of techniques that have been widely used in the current empirical literature on growth and convergence. Usual measures of dispersion in the interstate income distribution (the coefficient of variation and Theil' s index) suggest that cr-convergence was an unequivoca1 feature of the regional growth experience in BraziI, between 1970 and 1986. After 1986, the process of convergence seems, however, to have sIowed down almost to a halt. A standard growth modeI is shown to fit the regional data well and to expIain a substantial amount of the variation in growth rates, providing estimates of the speed of (conditional) J3-convergence of approximateIy 3% p.a .. Different estimates of the long run distribution implied by the recent growth trends point towards further reductions in the interstate income inequality, but also suggest that the relative per capita incomes of a significant number of states and the number of ''very poor" and "poor" states were, in 1995, already quite c10se to their steady-state values.

Barriers to trade: barriers to growth

We study the cxtent to which differences in international trade policies contribute to the significant cross-country disparities in macroeconomic performance. In particular, wc concentrate on the effect of protectionism on generating differences in leveIs (of income and of measured total factor productivity), in growth rates (of output, productivity and inputs), in volatility and in trends (or development traps). We document that these rclationships are strong in cross country data, integrate a Hecksher-Ohlin mode! of international trade into the standard macroeconomic modcl to derive those rclationships analytically, and to quantify them. Our results suggest that a large fraction of the cros::; country variations can be attributed to trade policy.

Linkages between pro-poor growth, social programmes and labour market : the recent Brazilian experience

From a methodological point of view, this paper makes two contlibutions to the literature. One contribution is the proposal of a new measure of pro-poor growth. This new measure provides the linkage between growth rates in mean income and in income inequality. In this context, growth is defined as pro-poor (or anti-poor) if there is a gain (or loss) in the growth rate due to a decrease (or increase) in inequality. The other contribution is a decomposition methodology that explores linkages between three dimensions: growth pattems, labour market performances. and social policies. Through the decomposition analysis, growth in per capita income is explained in terms of four labour market components: the employment rate. hours of work, the labour force participation rate. and productivity. We also assess the contribution of different nonlabour income sources to growth patterns. The proposed methodologies are then applied to the Brazilian National Household Survey (PNAD) covering the period 1995-2004. The paper analyzes the evolution of Brazilian social indicators based on per capita income exploring links with adverse labour market performance and social policy change, with particular emphasis on the expansion of targeted cash transfers and devising more propoor social security benefits.

High-growth SMEs and the availability of private equity and venture capital in Brazil

This chapter discusses private equity and venture capital (PE/VC) in Brazil. Firstly, it is shown that PE/VC has a strong impact in the Brazilian capital markets, with PE/VC-backed companies representing close to half the amount raised by initial public offerings (IPOs) in the stock exchanges. By examining two of these deals, which involved small and mediumsized enterprises (SMEs), it is argued that PE/VC managers have acted as catalysts of the impressive growth rates experienced before these companies entered the stock markets. Indeed, PE/VC firms represent an important segment of the capital market, with specialization to invest in high-growth innovative SMEs. PE/VC managers exercise superior selection, monitoring and governance that mitigate the uncertainty and risks of investing in such companies. Despite its successes in Brazil, PE/VC is still very much restrained by the challenging local economic and institutional environment. Thus, changes in the legal and fiscal system, simplification in bureaucratic procedures, and other such improvements will most likely result in a sensible growth in the Brazilian PE/VC industry, with positive impact in the SME access to finance in Brazil. Since most countries in Latin America share similar economic and institutional traits with Brazil, the path followed by the local PE/VC industry can serve as an example for other countries to learn with its successes and failures.

The BRICS: some historical experiences, growth challenges and opportunities

The acronym BRICS was a fad among the media and global investors. Now, the acronym sounds passé. However, the group of countries remains important, from both political and economic reasons. They have a large aggregate size, 28% of the global GDP and 42% of the world’s population, high growth potential due to the current significant misallocation of resources and relatively low stock of human capital, structural transformation is in progress and one of them, China, is taking steps to become a global power and a challenger to the US dominance. This paper provides a brief overview of the five economies, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. We focus on some aspects of their history, the Chinese initiatives in international finance and geopolitical strategic moves, their growth experience and structural transformation over the last 35 years, trade and investment integration into the global economy and among themselves, the growth challenges faced by their economies and the potential gains to the Brazilian economy from a stronger integration with the other BRICS. In association with its efforts to be a global power, China aims to become a major player in global finance and to achieve the status of global currency for the renminbi, which would be the first currency of an emerging economy to attain such position. Despite the similarities, the BRICS encompass very diverse economies. In the recent decades, China and India showed stellar growth rates. On the other hand, Brazil, Russia and South Africa have expanded just in line with global output growth with the Russian economy exhibiting high volatility. China is by far the largest economy, and South Africa the smallest, the only BRICS economy with a GDP lower than US$ 1 trillion. Russia abandoned communism almost 25 years ago, but reversed many of the privatizations of 90’s. China is still ruled by communism, but has a vibrant private sector and recently has officially declared market forces to play a dominant role in its economy. Brazil, Russia and South Africa are global natural resources powerhouses and commodity exporters while China and India are large commodity importers. Brazil is relatively closed to international trade of goods and services, in marked contrast to the other four economies. Brazil, India and South Africa are dependent on external capital flows whereas China and Russia are capital exporters. India and South Africa have younger populations and a large portion living below the poverty line. Despite its extraordinary growth experience that lifted many millions from poverty, China still has 28% of its population classified as poor. Russia and China have much older populations and one of their challenges is to deal with the effects of a declining labor force in the near future. India, China and South Africa face a long way to urbanization, while Brazil and Russia are already urbanized countries. China is an industrial economy but its primary sector still absorbs a large pool of workers. India is not, but the primary sector employs also a large share of the labor force. China’s aggregate demand structure is biased towards investment that has been driving its expansion. Brazil and South Africa have an aggregate demand structure similar to the developed economies, with private consumption accounting for approximately 70%. The same similarity applies to the supply side, as in both economies the share of services nears 70%. The development problem is a productivity problem, so microeconomic reforms are badly needed to foster long-term growth of the BRICS economies since they have lost steam due a variety of factors, but fundamentally due to slower total factor productivity growth. China and India are implementing ambitious reform programs, while Brazil is dealing with macroeconomic disequilibria. Russia and South Africa remain mute about structural reforms. There are some potential benefits to Brazil to be extracted from a greater economic integration with the BRICS, particularly in natural resources intensive industries and services. Necessary conditions to the materialization of those gains are the removal of the several sources of resource misallocation and strong investment in human capital.

Growth of the mangrove crab Ucides cordatus (Brachyura, Ocypodidae)

During monthly samplings between September 1998 and August 2000. 3,660 specimens of Ucides cordatus (Linnaeus, 1763) (2054 males and 1606 females) were obtained and examined for size (CW carapace width) to determine growth-age equations for each sex. This species showed a slower growth, with a marked seasonal oscillation, in females as compared to males, suggesting application of the seasonal and nonseasonal von Bertalanffy growth model, respectively. CW∝ and k constant were closely similar for the two sexes (CW∝ (male) = 90.3 mm: CW∝ (female) = 88.6 mm; k(male) = 0.28; k(female) = 0.26). The age at sexual maturity was estimated to be around 3 years, while the age at legal size (CW = 60 mm) was 3.8 and 4.7 years for males and females, respectively. In the laboratory, juvenile stages did not show differences in growth rates under the same temperature and photoperiod conditions.

Is the meander growth in the Brazil Current system off Southeast Brazil due to baroclinic instability?

Temporally-growing frontal meandering and occasional eddy-shedding is observed in the Brazil Current (BC) as it flows adjacent to the Brazilian Coast. No study of the dynamics of this phenomenon has been conducted to date in the region between 22 degrees S and 25 degrees S. Within this latitude range, the flow over the intermediate continental slope is marked by a current inversion at a depth that is associated with the Intermediate Western Boundary Current (IWBC). A time series analysis of 10-current-meter mooring data was used to describe a mean vertical profile for the BC-IWBC jet and a typical meander vertical structure. The latter was obtained by an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis that showed a single mode explaining 82% of the total variance. This mode structure decayed sharply with depth, revealing that the meandering is much more vigorous within the BC domain than it is in the IWBC region. As the spectral analysis of the mode amplitude time series revealed no significant periods, we searched for dominant wavelengths. This search was done via a spatial EOF analysis on 51 thermal front patterns derived from digitized AVHRR images. Four modes were statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Modes 3 and 4, which together explained 18% of the total variance, are associated with 266 and 338-km vorticity waves, respectively. With this new information derived from the data, the [Johns, W.E., 1988. One-dimensional baroclinically unstable waves on the Gulf Stream potential vorticity gradient near Cape Hatteras. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans 11, 323-350] one-dimensional quasi-geostrophic model was applied to the interpolated mean BC-IWBC jet. The results indicated that the BC system is indeed baroclinically unstable and that the wavelengths depicted in the thermal front analysis are associated with the most unstable waves produced by the model. Growth rates were about 0.06 (0.05) days(-1) for the 266-km (338-km) wave. Moreover, phase speeds for these waves were low compared to the surface BC velocity and may account for remarks in the literature about growing standing or stationary meanders off southeast Brazil. The theoretical vertical structure modes associated with these waves resembled very closely to the one obtained for the current-meter mooring EOF analysis. We interpret this agreement as a confirmation that baroclinic instability is an important mechanism in meander growth in the BC system. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estudo sobre o crescimento de fedegoso

O crescimento de Senna obtusifolia foi estudado sob condições de casa-de-vegetação, num delineamento inteiramente casualizado com 4 repetições . As plantas cresceram em vasos de 6 litros preenchidos com areia e irrigados com solução completa de Hoaglan d, duas vezes por dia. O crescimento das plantas foi avaliado a partir de 21 até 161 dias após a emergência, em intervalos de 14 dias. Os resultados evidenciaram que as plantas de S. obtusifolia acumularam o máximo de matéria seca aos 147 dias após à emergência (D.A.E.) com um período de maior intensidade de crescimento compreendido entre 21 e 63 D.A. E. A partir da emergência até 63 dias, o maior acúmulo de maté ria seca foi verificado nas raízes, após esta data até o final do ciclo do fedegoso, maior proporção foi alocada nos caules. Aos 63 D.A. E. todas as plantas tinham florescido. A taxa de crescimento relativo decresceu rapidamente até 63 dias, mantendo-se baixa e constante até o final do período experimental. Este parâmetro de crescimento foi fortemente influenciado pela tal, a qual foi constante após 91 dias, provavelmente devido ao auto -sombreamento da planta . A área foliar cresceu amplamente até os 35 dias, tornando-se estável a partir dos 119 dias após a emergência das plantas. Considerando-se um período correspondente a dois terços do ciclo médio de cultura s anuais, de dez semanas, S. obtusif olia quando comparada a outras espécies daninhas, apresenta taxas de crescimento inicial menores, o que pode caracterizá-la como uma planta infestante tardia.

Live and formulated diet evaluation through initial growth and survival of jundiá larvae, Rhamdia quelen

A larvicultura da maioria das espécies de peixes enfrenta o desafio da dependência do alimento vivo (AL) e da falta de dietas formuladas (DF) que atendam plenamente às necessidades das larvas. A baixa digestibilidade e a qualidade nutricional das DFs são alguns dos fatores que explicam o insucesso quando as larvas recebem apenas FD. Para avaliar o efeito da combinação da DF com o AL no crescimento e na sobrevivência de larvas de jundiá (Rhamdia quelen), comparando com o uso separado da DF ou do AL, larvas recém eclodidas (5,57 mm; 1,41 mg) foram estocadas inicialmente em 12 aquários de 10 L (100 larvas por aquário). Quatro réplicas foram alimentadas ad libitum com uma das três dietas por 20 (para DF) ou 48 dias (para AL ou a combinação DF + AL). As larvas alimentadas com apenas DF apresentaram crescimento e sobrevivência reduzidos quando comparadas àquelas alimentadas com AL ou a combinação DF + AL. Adicionalmente, as larvas do tratamento DF + AL apresentaram maior crescimento em peso (170 mg) que aquelas alimentadas apenas com AL (110 mg). O melhor desempenho das larvas alimentadas com DF + AL mostra que a maioria dos nutrientes exigidos pelas larvas é fornecida mais adequadamente quando ambas as dietas são fornecidas juntamente. Contudo, trabalhos sobre nutrição larval poderão contribuir ainda mais sobre a elucidação deste tema quando feitas comparações com o uso combinado de DF + AL, do que apenas testando isoladamente novos ingredientes e fontes protéicas normalmente utilizadas na elaboração de dietas para juvenis e adultos.

Allometric growth of two species of Ephemeroptera from Neotropical mountains streams

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Práticas agroecológicas para o cultivo do gergelim (Sesamum indicum L.)

The exceeded use of the natural resources required by the modern agriculture has been caused soil impoverishment, soil salinization and soil compaction. The unreasonable use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides causes chemical imbalances in the plant tissues, nutritional losses, taste chances and human health problems. The monocrops are more vulnerable to the pest and disease attacks. The aim of this work were to indicate the better relative planting time of the cowpea bean for the sesame/cowpea bean intercropping based on the evaluation of agronomic, economic, ecological and physiological parameters and to evaluate the viability of the cow urine and cassava wastewater use as alternative fertilizers on the sesame cultivation. In a field essay, when the sesame/cowpea bean was evaluate, the mainly treatments were the single planting of the two cultures and the multiple cropping, with the cowpea bean being planted on the same time, 7, 14 and 21 days after the sesame. The mainly treatments of the second essay were the combined doses of the cow urine (0 and 50 ml) and cassava wastewater (0, 500 and 1000 mL). In the intercrop evaluation significant differences were found between the treatments for the most of the parameters. It was verified that as the sowing of the cowpea bean was retarded in relation to the sesame sowing, the sesame performance increased when the cowpea bean performance decreased. The treatment 7 days balanced the competition relations that occurred between the two crops in the intercrop. The sesame presented little pronounced responses to the different doses of cassava wastewater. The cow urine affected the sesame growth and the growth rates increased with the increasing of the application of the product. The responses of the sesame growth to the cow urine application must be related both the nutritional richness of the product and the presence of growth stimulating substances. The obtained results indicated that in the sesame/cowpea bean intercropping, when the sesame is planted 7 days after the sesame, there is a higher possibility of the net gains to the farmer. Cow urine and cassava wastewater may be used as additional organic fertilizers